Yesterday, Baseball Prospectus released it's 2012 PECOTA player projections. I'm not going to comment on the quality of them one way or another -- there's a discussion at The Book Blog, if interested -- but they are yearly among the most accurate projection systems out there.
The Rays' PECOTA projections are below the jump and edited a bit as to not cram all the information into an unreadable table. Also, I only included the players with MLB experience currently on the roster.
There may be two stats in the tables that you're unfamiliar with if you're not fluent in Prospectus speak: TAv and WARP. We tend to be a more FanGraphs-heavy site, so, if it helps, think of TAv (True Average) as the BP equivalent of wOBA and WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) as the equivalent of WAR.
For reference, here's a chart of the average TAv from each position (1-11) in 2011:
| POS | TAV | PA | GMS | VORP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | .1476 | 5923 | 1297 | 140.35 |
| 2 | .2519 | 19140 | 2429 | 676.61 |
| 3 | .2839 | 20709 | 2429 | 686.93 |
| 4 | .2575 | 20831 | 2429 | 484.88 |
| 5 | .2567 | 20233 | 2429 | 554.69 |
| 6 | .2536 | 20715 | 2429 | 684.73 |
| 7 | .2628 | 20763 | 2429 | 484.34 |
| 8 | .2664 | 21247 | 2429 | 758.89 |
| 9 | .2804 | 20780 | 2429 | 769.66 |
| 10 | .2787 | 9758 | 1134 | 274.12 |
| 11 | .2266 | 5100 | 1847 | -30.1 |
Now, on to the projections
| NAME | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | TAv | WARP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.J. Upton | 17 | 70 | 41 | 0.245 | 0.332 | 0.398 | 0.272 | 2.8 | |
| Ben Zobrist | 18 | 71 | 18 | 0.249 | 0.344 | 0.413 | 0.282 | 3 | |
| Desmond Jennings | 13 | 66 | 36 | 0.257 | 0.334 | 0.392 | 0.273 | 2.3 | |
| Evan Longoria | 28 | 87 | 8 | 0.262 | 0.347 | 0.482 | 0.303 | 5.6 | |
| Carlos Pena | 32 | 78 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.346 | 0.458 | 0.294 | 1.8 | |
| Matt Joyce | 22 | 76 | 11 | 0.25 | 0.341 | 0.449 | 0.29 | 2.7 | |
| Sean Rodriguez | 15 | 53 | 12 | 0.229 | 0.31 | 0.394 | 0.263 | 1.6 | |
| Luke Scott | 19 | 58 | 2 | 0.238 | 0.321 | 0.432 | 0.279 | 1.5 | |
| Jose Molina | 4 | 29 | 2 | 0.221 | 0.266 | 0.305 | 0.217 | -0.4 | |
| Jeff Keppinger | 3 | 29 | 1 | 0.266 | 0.312 | 0.355 | 0.252 | 0.8 | |
| Reid Brignac | 5 | 27 | 3 | 0.229 | 0.272 | 0.335 | 0.228 | 0.3 | |
| Sam Fuld | 1 | 9 | 5 | 0.239 | 0.32 | 0.328 | 0.25 | 0.4 |
The first thing I notice is the seemingly un-optimistic outlook for Longoria's slash line. Each of those totals would be below his career average. His BABIP was incredibly low last season and he battled injuries, yet he still managed to hit 31 homers. If his luck improves just a little and he manages to stay healthy, these projections should prove to be on the low side. On the bright side, his 5.6 WARP projection ranks second in baseball to only Albert Pujols, and his TAv is 18th. So even with a seemingly pessimistic projection, he's still quite good.
Unsurprisingly, Ben Zobrist has the second highest WARP on the team. His 3.0 total places him with Dan Uggla and Alex Avila in the projections. And any Rays fan would gladly take the 32 projected home runs for Carlos Pena in a heartbeat.
Pitchers:
| NAME | W | L | IP | BB9 | SO9 | ERA | WARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Price | 14.3 | 12.3 | 214.3333 | 2.9 | 8.1 | 3.17 | 4.5 |
| James Shields | 13.1 | 12.5 | 201.6667 | 1.9 | 7.4 | 3.47 | 3.4 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | 10.2 | 9.8 | 156 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 3.36 | 3 |
| Wade Davis | 8.9 | 10.2 | 144 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 4.03 | 1.5 |
| Matt Moore | 8.9 | 9 | 138 | 4.6 | 10.4 | 3.56 | 2.3 |
| Jeff Niemann | 7.4 | 7 | 125.3333 | 3 | 6.6 | 3.83 | 1.3 |
| Joel Peralta | 3.2 | 1.6 | 61.6667 | 2.4 | 7.8 | 3.27 | 0.7 |
| Alex Cobb | 3.6 | 4.6 | 60 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 4.41 | 0.3 |
| Burke Badenhop | 2.8 | 1.4 | 57.3333 | 3 | 5.4 | 4.11 | |
| Alexander Torres | 3.3 | 3.5 | 54.6667 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 4.45 | |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 2.7 | 1.4 | 52.6667 | 2.9 | 8.3 | 3.67 | 0.3 |
| Jake McGee | 2.7 | 1.2 | 52.6667 | 3.8 | 8.6 | 3.84 | 0.2 |
| Fernando Rodney | 2.4 | 1.1 | 48.3333 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 4.24 | -0.1 |
| J.P. Howell | 2.3 | 1.1 | 44 | 3.6 | 9 | 3.52 | 0.3 |
| Brandon Gomes | 2 | 1 | 39.6667 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 3.88 | 0.1 |
| Dane De La Rosa | 1.1 | 0.4 | 29.6667 | 3.4 | 8.3 | 3.74 | 0.2 |
| Josh Lueke | 1.3 | 0.6 | 26.3333 | 3.2 | 8 | 3.75 | 0.1 |
| Cesar Ramos | 1 | 0.4 | 22 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
David Price's strikeout and walk rates go in opposite directions from his 2011 campaign, while James Shields' walks drop along with his strikeouts. The strikeout and ERA projections for Moore would be welcomed, but I don't think he'll have as much of a control issue as this states. He hasn't come close to walking that many people since High-A ball. There's been some concern over the reliever projections across the board, so take those for what you will.
Nevertheless, trying to predict anything in baseball is a rough job and I applaud those who try. The full PECOTA spreadsheet can be found here for subscribers. What did you all think of the projections?
Thanks to R.J. for helping out with the tables.
0 recs | 31 comments
40 WARP total
Not sure if the PAs add up at the team level at this stage, but if so, that’s pretty darn solid. BPro uses a relatively high rep level, so this is at least a 90-win projection.
Sky Kalkman - February 9, 2012
Why are they so low on Molina's defense?
mr. maniac - February 9, 2012
Maybe they think it's B. Molina.
Peter Piontek - February 9, 2012
Great article from Matt Swartz today analyzing how projection systems fared last season.
Link.
In the end, there’s little difference between all the top projection systems. But I think you can argue that ZiPS and PECOTA were the best for offense (with Oliver and Steamer not far behind).
And in a somewhat of a surprise (to me, at least), it looks like Steamer and CAIRO were the way to go for pitching projections. Or just use a regressed version of SIERA.
Steve Slowinski - February 9, 2012
It’s funny how close these all are.
In the last 4 years, of which there has been little substantive change to the mean projections, ZiPS has had:
A really good hitting, really good pitching year
A really good hitting, really mediocre pitching year
A really mediocre hitting, really good pitching year
A really mediocre hitting, really mediocre pitching year
D.Szymborski - February 9, 2012
Cool...I was wondering how this stacked up with past results.
It really does seem like the top projections are all crazy close, and the answer to “who’s better?” on a yearly basis comes down to how the bounces go during the season.
Although the FB velocity bit about the Steamer projections is fascinating.
Steve Slowinski - February 9, 2012
I have a follow up story going up shortly
Consider
Jason Collette - February 9, 2012
Those are the various projections for Longoria
Jason Collette - February 9, 2012
They had Ben Zobrist as a -3 2B and a +2 RF
I think you can add another win on to his WARP at a minimum. I’ve also converted these to wOBA if anyone is interested:
Row Labels HR BA OBP SLG wOBA WARP
Evan Longoria 28 0.262 0.347 0.482 0.355 5.6
Carlos Pena 32 0.220 0.346 0.458 0.346 1.8
Matt Joyce 22 0.250 0.341 0.449 0.343 2.7
Ben Zobrist 18 0.249 0.344 0.413 0.335 3
Luke Scott 19 0.238 0.321 0.432 0.328 1.5
B.J. Upton 17 0.245 0.332 0.398 0.323 2.8
Desmond Jennings 13 0.257 0.334 0.392 0.319 2.3
Juan Miranda 8 0.230 0.320 0.401 0.312 1
Robinson Chirinos 3 0.245 0.321 0.401 0.306 0.6
Sean Rodriguez 15 0.229 0.310 0.394 0.299 1.6
Sam Fuld 1 0.239 0.320 0.328 0.299 0.4
Jeff Keppinger 3 0.266 0.312 0.355 0.299 0.8
Brandon Guyer 4 0.254 0.299 0.398 0.297 0.3
Stephen Vogt 6 0.249 0.284 0.388 0.293 0.7
Elliot Johnson 6 0.235 0.293 0.366 0.291 0.9
Jose Lobaton 2 0.230 0.305 0.348 0.289 0.3
Matt Mangini 5 0.242 0.286 0.362 0.283 0.6
Leslie Anderson 5 0.246 0.281 0.368 0.280 0
Reid Brignac 5 0.229 0.272 0.335 0.269 0.3
Derek Dietrich 8 0.210 0.251 0.362 0.260 0.2
Tim Beckham 3 0.221 0.269 0.319 0.259 0.1
Nevin Ashley 4 0.208 0.282 0.303 0.256 0.2
Jose Molina 4 0.221 0.266 0.305 0.255 -0.4
Hak-Ju Lee 1 0.226 0.275 0.297 0.255 -0.3
Jeff Malm 5 0.182 0.251 0.287 0.236 -1.9
Drew Vettleson 3 0.179 0.230 0.260 0.219 -2.6
Ryan Brett 0 0.192 0.238 0.249 0.216 -1.8
Yoel Araujo 4 0.159 0.220 0.251 0.211 -2.5
Joshua Sale 1 0.168 0.214 0.225 0.197 -3.2
Jake Hager 1 0.180 0.206 0.238 0.195 -2.4
Sandy Kazmir - February 9, 2012
The Zobrist quibble aside, nothing else seemed particularly glaring other than they seem to have lower expectations across the board than I (or Zips) expect
If they have a higher replacement level then it could stem from that, otherwise these seem fine as projections. I’d still average this with Zips, Marcel, and Oliver and you’ll probably get closer to the truth than any one system.
Sandy Kazmir - February 9, 2012
It seems consistent (besides for defense), which makes it fine in my eyes.
mr. maniac - February 9, 2012
using all of them is definitely my preference.
rglass44 - February 9, 2012
Laughed at this part for the obvious reason:
Also worth noting: BP uses a higher replacement level than Fangraphs (and B-Ref, I believe), hence why the WARP values may seem depressed if you’re comparing it to another value metric.
R.J. Anderson - February 9, 2012
Was wondering about that
Having only 2 guys in the 3+ WARP territory(and Zob barely got there) was a little sobering. Still super excited about this team
BJ the Bossman - February 9, 2012
Here's the breakdown of batters with 200-plus plate appearances from last year:
FG doubles up BP in four-to-five win players, and also has more five-plus win players.
R.J. Anderson - February 9, 2012
Add another WARP on right off the bat for his defense
He’s much closer to +11 at 2B than -3
Sandy Kazmir - February 9, 2012
So combining with R33J's chart he'd be basically top-15% in baseball
Sandy Kazmir - February 9, 2012
Yeah.
Like I said, I’m not sure where they are getting the defensive numbers.
mr. maniac - February 9, 2012
I don't know how the defensive WARP part is computed.
To answer the Molina question, I do not believe his framing numbers have been take into consideration yet, although that is something they are working on.
R.J. Anderson - February 9, 2012
I am guessing it has to do with FRAA
Which Colin wrote up here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11589
I’m bearish on defensive metrics nowadays thanks to Colin’s other work, so I couldn’t tell you which is best. My guess: if you average them and ignore anything after a decimal point you’ll usually have a decent idea, but that’s just a guess.
R.J. Anderson - February 9, 2012
Do that then add +-1.5 for error bars and I think that's where I'm at
Basically you’ve got plus guys (3<x), average guys (-3<x<3), and bad (x<-3). When you color it in this way it’s pretty easy to combine with visual confirmation provided you’ve seen 20 – 30 full games.
Sandy Kazmir - February 9, 2012
Yep.
The tricky thing about the visual confirmation is range. Judging guys you see live is easier—you get a feel for their position, jumps, and so on—but judging guys on television is nearly impossible in that sense. So you have to careful there.
R.J. Anderson - February 9, 2012
I'd rec this piece, too:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12433
R.J. Anderson - February 9, 2012
Are his other defensive skills not also above average?
He seems to throw out runners well.
mr. maniac - February 9, 2012
His CS numbers are good. I don't know how he is in fielding bunts, pop-ups, etc.
R.J. Anderson - February 9, 2012
Neither B-Ref nor BP have him over one run these past two seasons.
Fangraphs had him at one run this year, three the year prior. So BPro’s measures aren’t out of line. I can see why someone would tack on a few more runs for framing though, and I wouldn’t quibble with it.
R.J. Anderson - February 9, 2012
S rod
Even though most of the players predictions seem low imagine how much of a boost the srod numbers would be. Also I think Desmond NJ Zobrist and Joyce will all have at least a little better batting average
gatrmf - February 9, 2012 via mobile
K/9
I see some interesting jumps in k rate. Good to see Hellickson k’s regressing and a decent bump for Davis. Dont like/agree with the declining k rate for niemann, hopper, and cobb (i see 7+ for cobb).
BossmanJunior333 - February 9, 2012 via mobile
I'm guessing they are looking at Hellickson's numbers, right?
mr. maniac - February 9, 2012
minor league numbers that is.
mr. maniac - February 9, 2012
Exactly
Thats why I think its safe to assume there will be a jump in k rate
BossmanJunior333 - February 9, 2012 via mobile
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