SB Nation - Login for mobile commenting

DRaysBay

Rays Should Sign Russell Branyan

As Jason Collette pointed out yesterday, the Rays have seemingly lost all of their former first basemen to the American League Central. All three also happened to be 2011 Triple-A Durham first basemen.

The Durham Bulls played a couple of guys at first base in 2011 that have since moved on from the Rays organization. Dan Johnson signed a minor league deal with the Chicago White Sox. Russ Canzler was traded to the Cleveland Indians for cash considerations. Casey Kotchman turned his magical 2011 season into a guaranteed $3M with the Cleveland Indians.

This leaves the Rays with Leslie Anderson as their lone first baseman in Durham. Why is this a problem, you ask? Because the Rays have no depth in case Luke Scott or Carlos Pena succumb to injury. Anderson is good organizational depth but there is little-to-no evidence that he would be able to handle Major League pitching if he were next on the depth chart to replace Pena or Scott.

The Rays still have plenty of arms to deal but it likely will not be for a Major League ready first baseman. Besides, with Pena and Scott on the active roster there really is not a lot of room to carry another guy relegated to first base duties alone.

If a trade occurs it will likely be for a player who can handle a few positions or, like Mr. Maniac pointed out yesterday, for an upgrade at catcher.

It may not seem like a big deal but imagine if the Rays did not have Casey Kotchman in Durham last year when Dan Johnson failed at the Big League level. Would the Rays have made the playoffs? What if it were Leslie Anderson who got the call? The Rays need to add a first baseman to Durham and who better than Russell Branyan?

Star-divide

Sure, you could argue that Derrek Lee would be a better option, but is he going to sign a minor league deal? I highly doubt it. He will likely find a Major League job somewhere.

Branyan did have a bad 2011 and had his fewest plate appearances since the 1999 season. Most of his plate appearances were in a pinch hitting role and getting the occasional spot start. He never got a fair opportunity to play and his numbers suffered. I have stated this before, and probably sound like a broken record by now, but the fact still remains that there is value here as long as he is healthy.

Branyan's defense at first base is actually really good. He has a +5.8 UZR in 1609.2 innings over the past three seasons. He has also maintained his good patience at the plate with his 10th straight year of posting at least a 10% walk rate. It was 12.3% last year and sits at 11.9% for his career.

Yes, his power was down and he only hit 5 homeruns last year but he has hit 68 home runs over his previous 939 at-bats. I believe the power is still there and the Rays honestly have nothing to lose if he is willing to take a minor league deal.

I know, I have what might be an unhealthy attachment to Branyan but the fact of the matter is that the Rays need some organizational depth at first base that can step in if Carlos Pena or Luke Scott were to go down with an injury. Why not Russell Branyan?

1 recs  |  164 comments

Comments

One other

Rays did sign Juan Miranda to play 1b at Durham.

I would love to see Branyan, Nick Johnson, or just for BWoodrum….Dimitri Young down in AAA.

Miranda is good.

By which I mean probably better than Branyan, depending on health/age.

Forgot about Miranda.

Still rather have Branyan. Branyan has at least proven it at the top level.

I'd like both.
Good call. I was being stubborn. =)
Miranda is a great option in Durham.

and the only justification I can think of for letting go of Russ Canzler for cash.

JM is 28,but has never gotten consistent time in the bigs. If Los goes down, JM is likely next on the depth chart. He was platooned with Branyan in Arizona last year.

Good read on Miranda’s potential: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/juan-miranda-rising-first-base-option/

Oh thank Beejus I was waiting patiently for this years "Go get Russell the Love Muscle" article

Guys with tremendous power and shattered spines are a dime a dozen these days

I have to do one of these each year until it happens.

You know that.

#FREE NEVIN
#FREE BRANDON GUYER
#Free Mangini
#RELEASE HAMILTON
#RELEASE YIELDS
#RELEASE MOM
#RELEASE JOSH FAIL AND BUSTIN O'CONNER
#Free Pat Shurmur
Rays also lost Ruggiano, I can see us getting a 1B/OF.

Maybe Nady? Gload is another option I’d like to see us get.

I hope not Nady.

I could see a trade for a guy like that but cannot think of a trade target off the top of my head.

What is there not to like about Nady as our 1B/RF in Durham?
I just don't like him as the next option to come up in case of an injury to Pena or Scott.

He simply cannot hit MLB pitching anymore.

Gotcha, and I agree
OBP is Life

but I’d be willing to give Raul Ibanez a minor-league deal with an opt-out (6/1?) as Luke Scott insurance.

I could live with that as well.

Any indication he will take a MiLB deal?

He'll retire before he takes an MiLB deal.
in a situation where there's a clear DH job waiting

and an early opt-out? I could see him taking that over a bench job in the bigs, but perhaps that’s wishful thinking.

Also, the number of pitchers is shrinking.

I see Wuertz as an option, but I wonder if we would take a chance on Brandon Webb. If we did, we could start him out in the bullpen and see if he’s the same.

I wouldn't mind either on a MiLB contract.
also, Michael Gonzalez
If he can't find and MLB job, yes yes yes yes yes
He would make a sick loogy.

Career 3.68 K/BB ratio versus LHH.

He's actually decent vs. righties too. Has gotten better the past 3 years
>10 K/9

even when he was the most hated man in Baltimore (2010), he was still a strikeout machine.

Add Mike Gonzalez and Wuertz

Talk about a dominant minor-league bullpen.

I feel like this article is posted every year.
I have to do a Branyan post every year.

It’s kind of my thing.

Hong Chih Kuo?

Was dominant in ’10 but struggled lasy year. Just look at those numbers 2 years ago—he also was an All-Star

I would welcome him on the Rays.

Still think there is some decent value there.

Also only 30
True.

He is resiliant, too. Always gets injured but alwasy makes a comeback.

kericr, your signature is deplorable
Check out nomoredevil's
What?

The 22 followers thing?

oh no!

lol, smh

I literally (figuratively) cannot wait for sign lady to hold this up at the Trop

Dewayne sees it, makes an uncomfortably understated comment, followed by uncontrolled giggling from BA.

YOU KNOW THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN

I'm all in on Russell Branyan. Or Magglio Ordonez

Vlad Guerrero or any other big bat that can for an inning or so go play a position as our 25th man on the roster.

I’m not too happy with our bench the way most here have it constructed, Fuld, Keppinger and Brignac, plus a catcher

Bench is definitely pretty sad.
I have reversed my stance since I wrote about the bench after the Pena signing.

It’s not as bad as last year, but I think a decent lefty off the bench to pinch hit for our catcher or ss is necessary. Last year our bench production was awful especially our playoff bench. If we make the playoffs Guyer will be on it, but a lefty would really help.

How do both Guyer and a LH hitter off the bench, both make a playoff roster
No idea, but just see it as a weakness right now.

It would probably be instead of Brignac though if he was a backup and didn’t at least get the ss job vs rhp.

Not implying you in this case, but why do many here see it as a foregone conclusion

this stiff Brignac is a lock for the 2012 Rays?

I see him traded or playing 2B in DUR come April

Who do you see as a backup SS?
Who's the Yankees back up? Red Sox? In other words

who cares? It should be a minimal PT position. NYY & BOS are both predicted to finish ahead of us this year, yet the Yankees have 38 yo Derek Jeter at SS and the Sox seem willing to give Nick Punto considerable PT. But we can’t win with Sean Rod as our every day SS? I disagree

I'd be more confident with Jeter than SRod as an all-in plan (salary aside)
take away the 'brand name' and are you confident Jeter is

that much better playing 145-150 games?

yes. are you kidding?
743 and 710 OPS the last 2 years --i don't think those numbers are out of the question

for Sean Rod

Dear god I hope so
you don't think S Rod can give you the defense of Jeter or his 700 ish OPS?
Would you like to go double or nothing on the 6 pack you owe me on WAR?
OPS is a bunk stat for OBP-heavy players like Jeter

I highly doubt Roddy gives the 104 wRC+ Jeter did last year in a non-platoon role

Would you be happy with Eduardo Nunez on the roster as a SS?
Nunez is fine point is Rays are versatile enough we don't need two

utl mif’s on the roster

Nunez is a damn good backup SS
What is he "damn good" at?

He’s a lousy glove and can’t hit

I thought he was very well regarded defensively?

Guess not though, those are some ugly UZR numbers

Pinstripes are an automatic +5 Def constant effect

At least in perception

So true

He was like the secondary piece in trade rumors for top starters early in the offseason. He was like Marquis Fleming in trade value.

lol

I’d Rec if not on mobile

This is how you comment right here
well done SK

supported me twice today—sweet

Might wanna start double checking stuff before you post. ;)
why? "damn good" is such a statistical adjective
I would agree if we had someone else on the roster that could play a solid SS

but we don’t sooooo

I see this is your "thing" this offseason.
Briggy is the best defensive SS in the org. right now

That has some real value to the Rays this year.

There is Lee in Montgomery
Lee has the potential to have the best D at SS in the future

But for right now I would be most confident in Briggy manning the SS position for the 2012 Rays. He plays a GG caliber SS right now, while Lee is going to take a year or two.

GG's are never handed out for defense alone

Reid plays nice defense, but I think it can be overstated by some fans; especially considering how terrible his bat is. I am in the camp that prefers Sean, and barring an amazing ST, I do not think Reid belongs on the opening day roster. If someone like Rhymes shows Maddon he can play capable SS in ST, Reid will be learning more versatility in Durham or traded. Just my humble opinion of course.

Well that's not true

There’s a pretty decent number of times when players get GGs that they deserve purely on the merit of being the best defensive player

that's very good for our rebound at ss.
Ah, Russ Branyan...

Good times…

Isn't Henry Wrigley gonna be at AAA this year, as well?

Last I checked they have him playing first now. Only real issue about him is plate discipline (haven’t found anything about his defense), but either way, wouldn’t Branyan cut into his playing time as well as Anderson and Miranda’s?

Henry Wrigley had a 102 wOBA+ last year.

I hoe you are kidding. He had a .309 OBP last year. .309!!!

Where do you find wOBA+?

All I’ve found is regular wOBA, which has Wrigley at .342 last year.

wRC+ is the way to go
I don't think its park adjusted in the minors though, just league.
And it accounts for SBs I believe.
Is it not? I was under the impression it was
Actually not lg either, duh, just relative to the lg
Welp it is lg adjusted but not park
Big thanks goes out to Tangotiger for pointing out how easy it was to implement this particular stat. It’s now available in all the player pages for major league and minor league players going all the way back to 1871. Please note that it is not park adjusted for minor league stats, but it is league adjusted.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-is-wrc/

Ah okay thanks

Useful information there

Go to firstinning.com. It has wOBA+ and OPS+.
Raytrader

I favor Conor Jackson for Durham. He hits right handed, can fill in at 1st, and corner outfield.

Though it's not explicitly stated anywhere in the article, the requirement for this player is that he's left handed. You should read through the comments though so you can see how this has been addressed already.
I too prefer Conor Jackson on a MiLB deal
I'm still trying to figure out why Keppinger was signed.

If the Rays were confident that a system of Rodriguez/Brignac was sufficient going into the season, another utility IF’er was not needed. The fact that Zobrist is around in case of a game by game need should be enough insurance if the need arises. Somewhere along this winter, the FO must have begun re-thinking the position and maybe they are less confident that Brignac will hit and/or that S-Rod can play well enough defensively to give one or the other the full time spot. If they felt that way, they could have gone out and signed a cheap,solid defensive SS who could hit at least average wise(Cedeno, McDonald, Punto, Santiago). That would have created the opportunity to send Brignac down to AAA or perhaps traded, maybe even to move S-Rod if his name came up in a deal.

But yet they went out and signed Keppinger, who is not a good defensive SS and basically is redundant to S-Rod, only not as good by a long shot. He is worse at 2nd base, can’t play the OF, hits lefties better than RH’ers and provides less flexibility for Maddon. He was not signed to be a RH’ed DH or to get PH’ing AB’s in place of Pena/Scott/Joyce against tough lefties, IMO either.

Having an all around, solid SS either to platoon or play full time would have enabled the Rays to add the what still seems like a need…a power bat on the bench and a guy who can play 1st base. And, IMO, a RH’ed bat. The Rays are going into the season, at this point, with three LH’ed DH options on an everyday basis(and by rotation if needed)…Scott, Joyce and Pena. And two of those guys are very weak(Pena and Joyce) against lefties and Scott is still a big question coming off of major shoulder surgery despite his pedestrian numbers versus LH’ers.

At this point, the only option to bring in a RH’ed 1stbase/DH/COF’er may be to send Fuld down. Rays may lose his late inning defense and speed but little else. Maybe that goes along with AF’s view that sometimes they have to weigh the difference between offense and defense in the overall construction of this line-up.

Seems like the Rays stated their Keppinger intentions

1) Hits lefties well in his career.
2) Low strike out/High contact hitter.
3) Some defensive flexibility.
I understand that you don’t agree with them on this one, but Maddon might be able to utilize Keppinger in ways that counter some of your concerns.

The only situation that seems to work offensively is if S-Rod plays SS, Keppinger plays second and Zobrist plays RF against lefties.

I’m not sure putting out a substantially weaker up the middle defense(on those days) is the type of defensive flexibility the Rays are looking for.

I think the biggest reason for getting Keppinger is to balance the bench if they think SRod will earn the starting SS job.

Without Keppinger we’d have a bench of catcher, fuld, brignac, and x. With a loogy being able to neutralize Pena/Joyce/Scott’s effectiveness in a big spot somebody who can hit lefties is crucial to have on the bench.

Agreed.

The problem is I just don’t think that Keppinger is the guy you want or you will see PH’ing for Pena/Joyce/Scott in late inning situations or being able to combat a LOOGY by himself. And that limitation is magnified because you will hardly see Maddon losing his DH’er by PH’ing in that spot. And who will play 1st base if you pull Pena late in a game?

Which is why a RH’ed hitter who has more power and is a better hitter in run scoring situations may be a better option. Keppinger has not hit lefties(or RH’ers) as well over the last few seasons(compared to when he was younger) when looking at OPS, SLG. w/OBA, wRC+

Doubtful Keppinger is used to pinch hit for Pena or Scott

If that were the case, then either of those guys would have to be having a dreadful season. My guess, the few times he pinch hits are for Joyce/Catcher and a specific spot where contact is paramount; replacing a low contact guy. I think Kotchman and Fuld intrigued them last season by adding high contact guys to the strike out heavy line up. They improved power at 1st base/DH and gave Longoria more protection, while keeping some level of balance in contact by bringing in Keppinger; plus Rhymes is there for insurance in case all your fears are realized.

I don't see it happening alot.

But in high leverage contact situations that they brought in the lefty he is a pretty good option. There just needs to be something to be brought off the bench when your lineup has some vulnerabilities versus lefties.

I think that is their plan.

It fits into statements from earlier in the off-season; a willingness to sacrifice defense occasionally, for a particular offensive output. Unlike many here, I do not think Reid is on the opening day roster; unless his ST is bombastic. Potential trade situations could change the current configuration, but it looks to be another year of platooning Joyce, and Kepp is his dance partner. Hopefully he removes all your worries with a great season vs lefties.

I can't believe Keppinger couldn't have been had on a minor league deal.
I'm sure some team would've offered him a major league deal
*some other team
That would've been awesome!
Branyan does not appeal to me;

or any MLB teams, at this point. As others have stated above, I am not convinced that a 1st base/DH bat is what the FO is looking at right now; even on a MiLB deal. I was a bit surprised to see Paulino sign a MiLB deal elsewhere; giving a catcher like that a look in ST might be fun.

I just think we are reading into the injury risk of Pena and Scott a little too much

Pena has been relatively healthy throughout his career and so has Scott save for last season. The Rays have the best medical and injury prevention team in MLB and I think Miranda is enough insurance just in case a freak injury occurs.

Pena goes down once in a while

Remember how Willy Aybar and later Sean Rod filled in nicely? Luke Scott just came off major shoulder surgey, so he has risk; but I do agree with your overall sentiment. I think the summary of most posts at this point is… baseball hurry up and start already. Rosterbating and trade speculations are beyond old.

His injury history is essentially getting hit by pitches

You must Login with your SB Nation account and be a member of DRaysBay to post a comment.