So as it turns out, yesterday was something of a tease. The Rays' pitchers and catchers reported, but very little baseballs actually got thrown around; the biggest news of the day was that Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman held a midday press conference. Physicals were done and such, and the Rays set themselves up to have their first workout with all their pitchers and catchers today.
John Gregg will be at spring training camp over the next handful of days, and he'll be passing along some of his observations and notes both here and at Rays Digest. If you don't already, check out RD and follow along throughout the day. They already have an interesting piece up on Tim Beckham and his 2012 hopes.
And if you missed it yesterday, the other "news" right now is that Wade Davis is seemingly reluctant to move to the bullpen. Obviously we'll see how things play out over Spring Training, and at the end of the day, he's a professional and will have to adjust if the Rays decide to use him there. It's something to keep in the back of the mind, though.
- The Yankees signed Raul Ibanez yesterday to a one year, $1.1 million deal (could reach $4 million with incentives). Ibanez's strength is in his power, so he should improve the Yankees' lineup against right-handed pitchers, especially in Yankee Stadium.
- Manny-bay is back! Except this time, Manny's taking his talents to the Bay Area, signing a minor-league deal with the Oakland A's. Hey, why not? The A's could use some extra oomph in their lineup, and Manny comes cheap right now.
- BetOnline has released their over/under lines for team win totals, and the Rays come in tied with the Red Sox at 87.5 wins. Both teams are considerably behind the Yankees (93 wins). Maybe I'm mis-remembering, but I believe this is a considerably higher rating than the Rays were given last season (mid to low 80s?).
- Maddon: "[The Rays are] very capable of going back to the World Series."
- I can't believe I forgot to highlight this aggregated prospect list over at Rays Prospects. I'm interested to see what it looks like now with Kevin Goldstein's rankings, especially considering Goldstein was a bit more pessimistic on some players.
- Yossi Feins takes a retrospective look at all the moves the Rays made this off-season. Warning: it's a slideshow, but I think it works well for this format. And he hits upon each move in some depth, so it's a good refresher -- especially about some of the things that happened multiple months ago at this point.
The over/under for wins by the Red Sox and Rays is way too low at 87.5.
I’d be very surprised if there aren’t 3 90+ win teams in the ALE.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
If I were a betting man, I'd go all in on 87.5 wins on Boston
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
Ya.
Unless something catastrophic happens I don’t see anyway they aren’t at least a 90 win team. With the Rays a few key injuries that take people out for significant time could be much harder to overcome than with Boston.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
Well they still have noticeable flaws at the back of their rotation, Jacoby should come to earth, Youk will probably get hurt, I have them over 90 wins, as well, but there's a lot that can go wrong, and it could snowball quickly with their lack of depth.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Right, but we're already assuming quite a bit will go wrong.
I do agree that their depth could hurt them, but at least offensively they have more people that could cover for their injuries that will happen. I still think 87.5 is low for both the Red Sox and the Rays. I think the Yankees will probably be above 93 if forced to choose and feel I would be right more often than not, but not with the same confidence as Boston and Tampa having 88+ wins.
I’d really have to run numbers on all of the AL though to know how confident, but at first glance just seems to be off by a few wins. I’d really have to see how the improvement in the AL will affect the teams even at the top since there are 6 legit teams here.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
The Rays might have had their best team ever in 2009 when they won 84 games so you can never really tell how it's going to break
Note that I’m playing devil’s advocate more than anything. It’s all rosy right now and you don’t get the chance to “win more than you lose” because unlike simulations the season only gets played once. This is a really good team, but they’re playing other really good teams a lot, especially right off the bat with 16/22 against the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, Angels and Rangers. Here’s the 10 game moving average Win% of our schedule this year, I’m going to plug in these Vegas lines to see how much this changes, but we’ve got a tough row to hoe.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
I know but in the terms of an expected value of of the run would be above the 87.5 for both.
The schedule doesn’t help, but I’d still be surprised if 88+ doesn’t happen. I know anything can happen and wouldn’t 100% book it, but i’d say the odds of it happening are better than even. I’m going to try to put together something on the AL and run it against schedules or something and see how that affects it. When I ran WAR projections i had NY and Tampa as 97.5 and Boston at 96 wins, but I know with strength of schedule will push those numbers lower. I just have to see how much of an affect it will have.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
You also have to remember that they set these lines so that they can get 50% of the action on each side
They’re not exactly predicting how many wins each team will have but trying to find that demarcation line where half the fans will take the over and the other half will take the under.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
I know.
I think there is probably the factor of last season’s ending and they aren’t as good on paper as last season and only ended with 90 wins. Outsiders thinking the Rays can’t continue thier run of success or whatnot, but I just would be surprised if Boston or Tampa end up with 87 or less wins. I would be surprised but I also saw the end to last season and I wouldn’t think it’s a 100% possibility either.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
that's a myth
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
It's right.
It’s why the line moves due to action already received in order to get it more towards the 50/50 so they can collect their vig and win regardless.
This is when dealing with 2 outcomes and not multiple scenarios with odds.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
no. it isnt.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Well that clarifies the reason for the dissenting opinion
DeadeyeRR - February 21, 2012
thanks for chiming in!
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
My pleasure!
DeadeyeRR - February 21, 2012
Ha
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
They'll take the vig all day and just redistribute from one hand to another
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
i'm trying to find what i read that debunks that myth. they make way more money by getting games right.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Of course, but we're talking in the aggregate here
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
as am i:
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittWhyAreGamblingMarkets2004.pdf
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Yeah, I've got time for that right now
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
the intro debunks themyth itself.
im sorry you dont want to learn and would rather just keep spewing untruths. i’ll wait for deadeye’s apology.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
also the common gambler almost never moves lines.
if all the joe schmoes bet on one side vegas is thrilled. its the smart money that moves the lines.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
I'm sorry that some of us are self-made men that have to work for a living instead of silverspoon a-holes
I’ll get to that when I have some time and will then give my feedback instead of reading the introduction/abstract and thinking I know what I’m talking about.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
/Has time for DRaysBay at work
staplemaniac - February 21, 2012
it really eats you up whenever i point out your wrong, doesnt it?
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
I have no idea since I'm too busy to read that at the moment
I’m not about to change my opinion based on one piece of evidence, though Levitt is pretty persuasive when discussing other things I’ve read.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
It takes about five minutes
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
You must read faster than me, 24 pages in 5 minutes is about 12 seconds a page, no wonder you're such a succesful businesman.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
lol
mr. maniac - February 21, 2012
obviously you missed the part where rglass suggested you read the intro
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
Obviously, you should read more than the introduction if you expect to speak eloquently on a topic
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
since it was in response to you saying that you didn't have time to read the intro...
i thought it would be valuable for you to know that it doesn’t take long to read the intro
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
News You Can Use with Fart McFarter
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Amazingly despite all the disadvantages you've had to overcome in life, you still found time to read the article
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
I'm a little over half way through, Steven Levitt is a good read and as I expected
there is a bit of an affect here, but it’s not very dramatic, we’re talking an extra percentage point away from what I was saying. Congratulations.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Also Levitt is using straight bets for his study...
but there are some insights to be gleaned on the thought about the bettor’s mindset and the patterns that they show.If you want to look and win totals, I believe the Bucs were at 8.5 wins this year. Considering his thoughts on locals, I’m sure they had more money on the Bucs have more than 8.5 wins this year.
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
think about it intuitively.
vegas has the ability to be better than the betting public at choosing games. if they also have the ability to guess how the betting public will bet they’d make more money by essentially leading the betting public to bet wrong. that way they make the vig in addition to what they make my being the best at their jobs.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
game theory, dawg.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
This seems like a pretty large assumption/caveat
He’s assuming that all bets are of equal denominations. Perhaps this is what you meant when you referred to sharps moving the line, but then what we’re talking about is equalizing the dollars on each side of the line, dawg.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
so your assumption undermines his assumption?
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
I'm not assuming anything, merely pointing out that it's asinine to assume that
20,000 wagers were all of the same denomination.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
so you're just nitpicking.
it’s part of the exercise. the entire case is not built on that assumption.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
I'm not to part 2 yet, but this seems like a pretty big underlying part of his study
It’s an interesting read so far, nonetheless.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
yeah. i wish i could find the one article that i read while back by a vegas oddsmaker.
having trouble though. it may have been an excerpt from a book but i cant remember.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
I also take issue with the fact that this is a picks contest
This subset of bettors is not large enough to influence the line and they may be betting emotionally trying to “catch up” with their opponents. Like I said this is really interesting, but I’m pretty stubborn and don’t find what I’ve read so far to be enough to convince me that Vegas isn’t trying to keep the line between .49<p<.51 in the aggregate.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
For me, he could have just presented Table 3 and I would have been satisfied (p. 236)
48% of favorites won over the last 21 years, that’s enough to sway me that they do manipulate the bettor to an extent, but they can’t so far from .5 because astute bettors would rape them. I’d be willing to expand my initial range from 49-51 to 47.5-52.5 which kind of falls in between us, I think. It’s not as dramatic as I was reading you saying (which may be on my end) nor as stolid as I was saying.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
yeah the magnitude isnt the issue.
the point is their aim. their aim is to maximize profits, so they arent merely trying to get 50/50 splits. the fact that it is often close to 50/50 is because bettors do a fair job of betting, and because vegas is always so close to the outcome. as such, the bets will group at 50%.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Without the benefit of a crystal ball you wouldn't expect them to be able to perfectly align at 50% anyway
If they could perfectly distribute to the left and the right then they would also be able to set the line wherever they want because they would already know the outcome ala Biff Tanner
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
The gist is that if you agree that the books...
know how to correctly evaluate the teams and how to correctly determine how the public is going to bet on them why would they settle on making just the vig when they can make 20-30% by manipulating those factors.
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
finna sell so many more lemons now
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
your lucky that double counts.
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
*youre
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
oh is that what i meant?
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
i can only assume. just trying to help you out. youre generally so helpful in this regard.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
thanks, theirs precedent for this
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
There will be no apology as all you originally said is "no.it isn't"
I just asked for a reason which at the time you gave none. I’m not a degenerate gambler so I don’t give a shit.
DeadeyeRR - February 21, 2012
I'm waiting for rosters to be finalized before running one more projection, but I think my last one had Boston with 96 wins, NY with 95, and TB with 94
That was with bunch of little things wrong so I’d expect each to shift around by 1-2 wins
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Did you adjust for the recent loss of Lackey?
Hatfield - February 21, 2012
Who?
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Playing a tougher schedule should have no effect on projected WARs, as long as you made the WAR what you expected them to do in the AL East.
Over the past 4 years, it has been equivelant to the 99th percentile.
mr. maniac - February 21, 2012
I understand that it should.
But if your schedule has you playing against a higher WAR as average wouldn’t that have an affect on results.
I’m trying to think about how I can word this and do a test to see if my hypothesis is correct, but it would seem that the Runs/Win in games versus 2 teams that were both 95 projected teams would get pushed towards 81 for those games that they play each other. The same would happen against lesser competition but in the other direction too, but a strength of schedule component of some sort has to be in there I would think.
I could be totally wrong, but am going to try to think more clearly how to say and prove/disprove what I’m trying to mean here.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
It is, it's called run environment
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Like I said, the fact that the player is playing in the AL East doesn't matter at all as long as the projections understand it.
For example, lets say Zobrist is projected to be 4 WAR in 2011. It doesn’t matter if he is playing in the AL East, since the projections already know that. If he was in the NL West, his WAR would be (guestimate) 4.5.
Does that clear it up?
mr. maniac - February 21, 2012
Ok that would be ok as long as we input the right parameters.
The biggest thing is I would have to check the inputs since I don’t know what the offensive run environment for our schedule is in comparison to the others.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
It shouldn't matter in team projections, since the pitching is hurt while the offense is helped.
mr. maniac - February 21, 2012
Still generally takes more runs scored/prevented from scoring in order to win the game.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
I know what you're talking about, I think.
You’re basically saying if you take a 95 win true talent team and put them in a division with a bunch of 60 win teams that they’ll win more than 95 games. Whereas, switch those 60 win teams out for 90 win teams and that 95 win team might only win 90. Right?
Basically, you want a simulation, which PECOTA does to generate its playoff odds. It’s not about the WAR itself in that case, but they use the projections with a log5 simulation and run it like 1,000 times or whatever.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Don't WAR projections normally take into account the division and strength of schedule?
mr. maniac - February 21, 2012
Which projections?
PECOTA adjusts for park, but not league or division to my knowledge. The guys already on the team, who have been here for years have that in-built to their previous performances, but a guy like Melancon isn’t being adjusted for heading to the ALE, no.
Maybe that’s something another system does, but I haven’t heard of it. That’s why if you have three or four teams near 90 projected wins, you should expect at least one, and maybe two of those to drop below the 90 win threshold. It’s not common to see three 90-plus win teams in one division, at least not if you’re expecting 95+ wins. Maybe 90 and a 91, and a 97 type deal.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
I don't think it does.
I think it takes just the AL and NL averages. Where there’s a big difference since we’re in the ALE and have 16 games each against NY, Boston, Toronto where they’ll have higher true talents than most divisions. Since the true talents have them at 97.5 for NY and TB and 96 for Boston in my projection I’d have to regress it a little to the mean since we’ll play a more difficult than average schedule I’d assume (I don’t know this for fact, but would like to see how it would affect). Since for many of those games there will be 2 95+ true talent wins playing each other where the outcome can only be a 81 win pace.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
Yes.
A way to project true talent into a general wins given their schedule. Ya it’s not about WAR but trying to correlate that into a projection for team wins.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
Yeah, you'd wanna do some simulations using the log5 stuff.
I know Hot Standings do a dummy version of the PECOTA stuff using recent years records instead of projections. I couldn’t tell you if that cranks out better results or not. My guess is no—since it could overrate older teams and underrate younger teams—but it may even out.
I think people tend to forget that a true talent 90 win team isn’t going to always win 90 or more games. It’s like a bell curve, they’ll probably fall between 85 and 95, but they can win 87 and still be considered a true talent 90 win team.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Yes.
Many things will happen through the season and will account for the few games +/-. But to try to see where win totals are it would probably be correct to regress a division towards 81 than just looking at the numbers to try to see where things will end up.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
The other things these projections don't--and can't--account for is high-leverage results.
This sort of works to bullpen and bench strength. If you can do good things in high-lev spots, you should have a better win-loss record than you’d expect. The opposite is true, too. No way to account for it beyond “this looks like a good true talent bench” since it’s entirely results driven.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
which bodes well for us this year.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
It should, but again, you never know.
Remember September 2009? It felt like the pen—which had no business being that bad—blew a lead every other day. That cut into the record by at least a few wins.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
debbie downer
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
It works both ways.
Wasn’t it the 2008 team that had a ton of come from behind wins?
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Yep, illustrates the point about 2009, too:
2011: 32 comebacks, 26 blown leads
2010: 42 comebacks, 25 blown leads
2009: 40 comebacks, 32 blown leads
2008: 45 comebacks, 28 blown leads
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
It was about 9 games in a row. If it were only every other day....
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
They blew one in Davis's debut, right?
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
yup. hooked ed with his win.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA200909060.shtml
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Why was Longoria so low in the order?
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
noidea. he was on an abolute tear.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
looks likemaybe he got dropped when he was struggling.
then he was raking, so he didnt get moved.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
1406 OPS out of the 6th spot that year
vs 865 out of the 3rd
/NEVER OILED A GLOVE
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
looks like Maddon had him there for a couple weeks before that game too
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
You look at that lineup now and it looks awful by comparison.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Guess that's natural when you start three guys who aren't in the majors anymore and another two guys coming off awful seasons.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
yup
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Missed Navarro, so make that four.
Only Longoria, Zobrist, and Pena are coming off passable years.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
granted beej was on the bench
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
This was the game before Pena broke his finger.
After that, things really got nasty.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Sobsey shed a tear when Richards was added to the roster
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
Richard even, thank goodness there was only one
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
My only Richard memory is him looking horrible at defense.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
At least Kevin Witt hit a home run or two.
And Jorge Velandia and Raul Casanova had oddly good stretches.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Joe Dillon .364 wOBA
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
Dude could have been Dillonsanity if given a chance
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
thats a rec
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Designated pinch runner.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
RIP POW
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
I don't understand the reference, but the man can write.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
He's missed
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
hilarious
SRQman - February 21, 2012
I was at that game
Dropped a rebound of Longoria’s HR in that game when the dude next to me bobbled it. Some guy standing in the corona beach bar picked it up off the ground.
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
Sp 4-9
Consecutive losses by: Howell, Balfour, Springer, Cormier, Sonny, Wheeler, Cormier
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
WOOF
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
But a true-talent 90-win team should win 87+ games like 60-70% of the time.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Yes, you can narrow it down, but I tend to go +/- five so it always ends in a 0 or a 5.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
(When I'm using the 90 win example, I mean. Obviously it's not always that cute.)
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
the point is if they are atrue-talent 90 win team than the EV making the bet is a net positive.
you may lose the bet, but you should win.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
What bet are we talking about?
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Nevermind. I skipped over the 87 wins thing in the main post.
I wasn’t referencing that at all here.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
I guess the only thing I don't get is how they have Boston and Tampa Bay there.
One I can get—and it would probably be Tampa Bay—but to have both doesn’t make sense to me.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
agreed. finna call my bookie.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
The Rays will win 85 games +- 20
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Here's the chart with the 2012 Vegas Projections factored in
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Besides a couple of relatively easy stretches, they don't really get a cake schedule until a brief stretch in mid-June
and then in late July to late August they get their easiest stretch before facing their most prolonged hard stretch to finish up the season. Could be plenty of teeth gnashing going into the trade deadline, but if they can stay within 5 games or so then they can really make hay post-deadline.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
I think it's right to be conservative with how difficult the division is, similarly you can think Detroit is really high, but nobody else in that division looks like an 82+ win team
That’s an awful lot of free wins.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Ya the ALC is really soft.
And with the ALW having the Rangers and Angels having 2/3 of their division games against the Mariners and Athletics doesn’t hurt. Will make the Wild Card that much tougher and interesting to see how this season plays out.
jtmorgan - February 21, 2012
Good thing the Astros didn't come over this year
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Rays Offseason Review
Thanks for mentioning me in today’s Rays Tank! If you’re not a fan of slideshows, you can always check out The Rays Rant version of the article: http://yossif.mlblogs.com/2012/02/19/a-review-of-the-rays-offseason/
Yossi Feins - February 21, 2012
I'm wondering where Alex Cobb fits into this 2012 Rays picture
Joe Maddon has spoke highly of him in the past and i’m wondering if he’s advanced or will advance above Davis and Niemann very shortly
sternfan1 - February 21, 2012
I hope so, but he has options and you know how they feel about service time. Is he that much better that those guys that it warrants trading one of them at low value?
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
5th starter pressure
Niemann or Davis will be looking over there shoulder at the starter in the Rays pen and Cobb ripping up Durham. I feel Nieman will win the spot and get off to a great start allowing Davis to be moved down the line. Cobb will then be the first starter off the pine.
sinkhole - February 21, 2012
The smart thing to do at this point is let the trade come to them...
An injury in Spring Training or during the season could expedite a trade in the early part of the season. Or we could simply wait out and let some team that finds themselves in a race for their division come knocking for one of our starters. I think it’s important to remember that with presumably an extra wild card spot in 2012, that there should (in theory) be more teams feeling as though they have a shot at making that lost spot. So, if that holds true, we could have some people willing to deal when it comes time to improve their rotation.
Snarfalicious - February 21, 2012
Tiger Town
I’m about to drive over to Lakeland to check out the Tigers and pick up some tickets. Its poor marketing that the Rays don’t visit Tiger town this year.
sinkhole - February 21, 2012
Joker Marchant is probably the nicest MiL stadium in the world. At least of the ones I've been to
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
We here in Lakeland enjoy the finer things.
Hatfield - February 21, 2012
Polk county for life!
DeadeyeRR - February 21, 2012
Rays officials read the headlines too--Stay out of Lakeland
sternfan1 - February 21, 2012
Completely agree.
A travesty.
Hatfield - February 21, 2012
Rays aren't coming off the gulf coast for anything this year
They were in Kissimmee last year but everything is up and down I-75 this year and that sucks
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
Great marketing, you guys!!
Hatfield - February 21, 2012
waaaaaah
SRQman - February 21, 2012
Rising fuel costs
Chartered bus rides, after fuel, would run $69.42 a player to bring up this way, each way.
Bottom line
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
they're playing one game at Roger Dean Stadium on a tuesday that i'll try to make it to..
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
Oh yea, the Miami game
I forgot about that one — easy drive across 75
While you’re there, go to Carmine’s for some food. It’s ~3m away and f’n worth it
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
There's better and cheaper italian in the area. I should know I've lived here 5 years now.
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
is it better because it's cheaper or is it just better?
thats why i hate yelpers. sometimes, i want to spend more for better quality. sometimes i want a great dive. the price points are given on the menu and they’re categorized by price, so i see no need to ding a place for price.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
well i mean it's in the same price class as a bunch of other regional chains. I don't go to upper end restaurants often...especially not for italian.
i don’t think i’ve ever used yelp for something in south florida, there’s just too many good and obscure options you can usually find a good place to eat by driving around and stopping at some place you’ve never heard of.
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
true. i use yelp a lot around here, and if someone mentions price i ignore it.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
I've been using the urbanspoon app on my travels
even in shitty places, it has been nailing some good finds for me
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
I like around me when I'm on foot
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
yeah my travel is generally for pleasure, so i dont end up places where i dont know what i want to eat.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
but the market...
I get a nice lunch by the water and then shop in the market for stuff to bring home. Love it
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
all these carpetbagging golf players really created some nice shopping/eating venues from the dredged-up swampland of PBC.
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
Italian food as a whole is painfully overrated
Thai, Mexican, Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Spanish, Seafood, Greek, Middle Eastern, Indian, New American
These are all types of restaurants that generally have better food than Italian restaurants. At Italian restaurants you can get pasta with either a tomato or a cheese based sauce-whoop de doo
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
theres some really fucking good thai here and cuban food around here. go figure.
pudieron89 - February 22, 2012
Oh yeah I forgot about Cuban food, that stuff is also better than italian food
the point stands that italian food is actually like not that good (barring like pizza, but like the good pizza isn’t even made the traditional Italian way, it’s made the American way, so I don’t know if I give them that)
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
what the fuck? all good pizza is made the italian way. the bad shit ismade the american way.
rglass44 - February 22, 2012
New York style
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
lol
“new york style” doesnt touch real neopalitan pizza which you can find here in the states (especially in my backyard on a nice summer evening from my grill).
rglass44 - February 22, 2012
have you ever been to a fine italian restaurant?
rglass44 - February 22, 2012
Yeah, this goober has no idea what he's talking about
Sandy Kazmir - February 22, 2012
olive garden is fine italian dining.
rglass44 - February 22, 2012
Yeah
I mean obviously fine dining is fine dining, but as far as the fine dining categories go, I’d put Italian below all the ones I listed. It goes without saying this involves personal palate preferences but that’s mine at least
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
This is not my writing,
but that of someone very knowledgeable about food to whom I sent your post:
“Well … Italian food isn’t overrated, at all; when you have it at a place like Spiaggia or Babbo, or just about any Arthur Avenue restaurant, it’s phenomenal. (I haven’t eaten too many things in my life better than the cockles in spicy tomato broth at Babbo.) (And then there’s Italy itself.) But are there a disproportionate number of mediocre Italian restaurants — places with menus dominated by overcooked pasta swimming in watery tomato sauce or gloppy, cloying alfredo? Absolutely, which might give the impression Italian food is overrated. It’s understandable, but wrong.”
I would add that there is a lot more to Italian cooking than pasta, and even pasta can be made in many varieties including with clam sauce and primavera.
bobr - February 22, 2012
Rec'd for bobr going off-topic
FreeZorilla - February 22, 2012
Part of it is also probably bias on my part, in that because I don't particularly like Italian food, I'm prone to avoid it when I'm going to nice restaurants
Ah, well, to each his own
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
So now you don't like blacks or Italians, one more and we can call you PUDY Jr.
Sandy Kazmir - February 22, 2012
where do you live/have lived?
rglass44 - February 22, 2012
no fucking way
rglass44 - February 22, 2012
BA's top 100 list is out
http://ht.ly/9cc0C
Moore – 2
Lee – 44
Archer – 89
Guerrieri – 90
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
All the major prospect rankings sorted by average ranking
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhdYS83t3IB7dGVnRDZIbXRfQ0UtSFM4bmJvRGpucnc#gid=0
I’ve also included standard deviation so you get an idea of where there’s a consensus and where these guys are divided
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
BP 2012 annual just got here, I've never read it more than flipping through POW's next to his shitter so I'm kind of excited
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Hope you like it
I even dropped MOM & Magic of Kotch into the team essay
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
Ugh, I was hoping R.J. covered the Rays
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
He was a back-reader of my work
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
I was just kidding
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
That survived editing?
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
It survived editing
I was shocked
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
I think I killed some of the memes in the player comments.
But that’s what you get for turning in a 300 word Kotchman comment.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
bwahhahaaha
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
Keep in mind, comments are supposed to run like 150-200 words at most.
He turned in a few whoppers. Since it’s a print publication that stuff matters, so I had to break out the sheers.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
"sheers" - noted syndicated baseball publication editor Robot J. Anderson
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
Woof.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
and he wasn't even the largest one
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
Joe on Molina
Meaning the rookies are going to see some time back there
Jason Collette - February 21, 2012
I hope they've got a contingency plan not named Chris Giminez.
Vin - February 21, 2012
I don't see an issue.
It’s sink or swim time for Lobaton. If he can adapt, he’s got the catching and throwing down, and can hit for a little power and get some walks. The concern is that he strikes out too much and won’t be able to make it in the majors. Hopefully Chirinos improved on defense over the winter and in the spring, just in case they need him by June.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Nevin is still looming in case they throw in the towel on the hitting side of the game
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
First time I've seen his Triple-A numbers.
Woo, buddy.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
112 PA, he will figure it out by 29
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
That seemed like a tempting option during that Red Sox series where Jaso fell apart last year.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
I think can put up a 575-600 OPS in MLB
Nevin Ashley: He’s Better Tahn Drew Butera
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
Butera's one of the worst batters in the league.
Same family of player.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
U-C-F
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Give me Albernaz from Eckerd
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
Really enjoyed watching him the couple of times I got to
I was pretty close at a game at Rochester watching him warm up Torra and his catch to release is like lightning, just a blur on the transfer.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Stephen Strasburg says he calls a great game
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
Stephen Strasburg said Nevin Ashley calls a great game, too.
R.J. Anderson - February 22, 2012
That's who I was talking about
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
For some reason I thought this was in the Pudge subthread.
Disregard.
R.J. Anderson - February 22, 2012
I want him to succeed in the worst way.
Vin - February 21, 2012
.
Vin - February 21, 2012
I saw him bang a double down the RF line in the Moore start I went to in Buffalo last year, Bex scored from first sliding around the tag at the plate, was pretty awesome
turned it into a triple with the throw home
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Nevin Ashley: He Does the Little Things
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
so does t-bex
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Bangin doubles is what you do at Indiana State.
(I mean fattys)
Vin - February 21, 2012
Please try to keep this clean, army boy
This is a civilized discussion, not a barracks
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Lotsa fattys hang around that school. Open campuses are awful.
Vin - February 21, 2012
Thank you for your service, sir.
Now GTFO
DeadeyeRR - February 21, 2012
What for?
Vin - February 21, 2012
J/K
DeadeyeRR - February 21, 2012
Good defensive catchers get unbelievably long leashes
benderbrodriguez - February 21, 2012
He's without options, which is what I'm referencing with the sink or swim part.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
oh okay
benderbrodriguez - February 21, 2012
I think you can also argue that Chirinos is going to get the priority treatment if they believe in his bat.
So Lobaton’s shots at making it here are running thin. The worst thing for him would be getting hurt again.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Dan Johnson: Pennant Chase::Robinson Chirinos:Grapefruit League
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
Someone should put together a gif of Molina and Chirinos throwing a runner out.
It’s like night and day.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Does the second one exist?
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
He threw two runners (nine percent of total attempts) out last year.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
CS: J Weeks (6, 3rd base by J Niemann/R Chirinos).
Wouldn’t have guessed Weeks.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
lol... niemann/chirinos? slowest CS ever.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Weeks must have slipped or came off the bag or something.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
yeah.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Granderson too with De La Rosa
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
Wouldn't have guessed him either.
I did some pop times on Molina earlier in the offseason, I don’t know that he ever took two seconds or more to get the ball to second base. Impressive at transferring. I also wonder how much of it comes from his set-up. I didn’t note it for every throw, but there are times where he’s not square with the plate.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Isn't Chirinos problem more of a location problem?
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
I'd have to go back and re-watch. I don't remember and I didn't make any notes on him.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
I'm going to do a story on Chirinos' pop times.
mr. maniac - February 21, 2012
Cool. I'll compare with my pop time.
Ben Tumbling - February 21, 2012
If I recall correctly, Toby said his times were good.
It seemed to me that he wasn’t delivering the ball in a location where the fielder could make a play on the runner
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
That's possible.
Let me see if I can’t search for his pop times comment and find out which game he’s referencing.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
From 7/30:
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Doug is the man
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
You've gotta love Doug(Raysfansince)09
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
MMTN
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
I'll let maniac do the pop times stuff.
I would request that he mark where the ball was thrown (i.e. left of 2b from the catcher’s POV and low). It won’t be perfect, but it gives you an idea of accuracy. If he’s throwing the ball to the shortstop side constantly then yeah, that’s a pretty big problem.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
I'll work try to get it done by the weekend.
I’ll get the pop times and I’ll give a general location for where he is throwing it. I think Price may have a lot to do with his SB numbers.
mr. maniac - February 21, 2012
I thought that in the game that brought the convo up a lot of the throws were up and towards first
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
I was just making an example. I don't know either way.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
his delivery and transfer seem extraordinarily long.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Tell that to Ashley :(
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
I'm completely fine with this, you're asking Lobaton to catch 1-2 games a week, you can PH for him in the 6th-7th so you're talking maybe 5-6 PAs a week for Lobaton, over the first 3 months that's 65-80 PAs
Chirinos is going to be around a 95 wRC+ or better in my mind so I just hope he can work on that glove to hand transfer or whatever it is that’s slowing him down
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Yes, wish we had a better lefty bat off the bench than just Fuld
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
Joyce on the days he doesn't start.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
same with reid
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
He said bat.
Vin - February 21, 2012
Exactly
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
or Elliot
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
You can't call up players from Montgomery during the game
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
lol
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
Right, but I'm thinking in a game where a RHP starts
FreeZorilla - February 21, 2012
Does he not walk enough or something?
Or are you just hoping he continues to do what he’s doing in that area?
And I hope that he hits for ANY power, but I really doubt it.
SandalsNoPants - February 21, 2012
The concern is that he just isn't a good enough hitter.
The power, walk, and strikeouts combo suggests he’s maybe a guess hitter that gets lucky in AAA. So if he keeps the power and walks with out the Ks killing him he’ll be fine, but if the Ks go up and he loses the power and walks becxause he’s overmatched then he’s screwed.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Molina brothers in 2013 please.
PriceMultiCyYoungs - February 21, 2012
Can we trade a starting pitcher for the Cardinal one?
DeadeyeRR - February 21, 2012
I'M SAYING HE'S A FREE AGENT AFTER THE YEAR.
PriceMultiCyYoungs - February 21, 2012
Here's a crazy idea:
if we don’t feel there is a legit chance at trading for a catcher, why not sign Pudge? We can just go with great defense all year, and the offense between him and Molina couldn’t possibly be that bad. We might need some help from Chiriton whenever an injury occurs or late in the season, but, like I said, if the Rays don’t feel we can get a catcher some time this year, I would like this. Any thoughts?
sc_monsta1015 - February 21, 2012
no. he's awful. he's an ass too.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
I would rather have nothing than a guy that's been living on rep
I mean I would literally rather play with an extra outfielder or something and just go without a catcher. I’m serious about this.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
agreed.
his bat is done. i think his defense is getting by on reputation and a propensity for calling fbs with men on base.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
His D numbers seem pretty good.
I might be missing something though.
sc_monsta1015 - February 21, 2012
Pudge will stil throw out over 33% of runners, block balls, call a good game and work with young pitchers well
At probably less than a million dollars, he should be considered an option this spring. And when you consider that Molina won’t play more than 60-80 games, and Lobaton/Chirinos have injury concerns, who will the Rays turn to if Molina gets hurt and misses significant time? Can’t see them comfortable with who is on their roster now.
Not advocating Pudge but he is experienced insurance, who would not be expected to be a full time catcher. I would rather pick up a roster casualty like Paulino, Teagarden, Tatum or Pena(or other option) as ST unfolds.
budman3 - February 21, 2012
I can't imagine he is better than Lobaton/Ashley.
mr. maniac - February 21, 2012
no chance. he's awful back there at this point.
no pitcher wants to work with him either.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Lobaton/Ashley could definitely be worse
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
im not sure thats true
rglass44 - February 22, 2012
Fast had his pitch framing runs at (CS%):
2007: 5 (31%)
2008: 0 (32%)
2009: -6 (35%)
2010: 5 (34%)
2011: 1 (52%, 13/25)
With his R/120 at 2 so he’s above average there, barely, and it looks like you can count on him to throw out a 1/3 of baserunners. Bojan has him as the 19th best blocking catcher from 2008 – 11, but all these things said, I feel like Lobaton can throw out 1/3 of runners, get average calls from umps, and block balls as well as the top quarter of catchers. In addition, maybe he puts up a better than .250 wOBA which is where Pudge is headed. I feel we were a bit harsh on the backlash, because Pudge is not what he was. He’s not very good now, but he’s still better than a lot of options and could come on the cheap. None of this addresses your point about him being a dick, which we don’t need here.
I’d consider him more after looking at the numbers, but I think Chiriton makes a good enough backup to at least get us into the last 3rd of the season when a new option may present itself.
Sandy Kazmir - February 22, 2012
he only throws out 30% anymore because he calls FB every pitch with a man on
rglass44 - February 22, 2012
That's not really true
I’ve got all but around 600 pitches from 2011 for the Nats and best I can tell is that they are all apart of the “Other” category. Pudge called less fastballs with a runner on first than he did overall and much fewer than the other catchers (mostly Ramos and Paulino). He also did not benefit from calling any pitchouts in that situation. I don’t disagree with your overall premise that Pudge is through, but I found this an interesting thought to state as fact based on visual evidence and wanted to see if the numbers bore it out. They do not.
Sandy Kazmir - February 23, 2012
good stuff. really surprised about that. he's still a washed-up asshole though.
rglass44 - February 23, 2012
Realistically they don't have a floor
Like they could potentially be sub-Navarro levels. Unlikely, but possible.
benderbrodriguez - February 22, 2012
It's also possible that 40-year-old Pudge falls to that level.
R.J. Anderson - February 22, 2012
I am putting an emphasis on veteran experience to handle a game and a staff for a substantial period of time
A legitimate contending team that is counting on a young staff to lead the way can ill afford to have young cathers take on that responsibility for perhaps a long stretch of time(considering the age and injury concerns of Molina/Lobaton/Chirinos), IMO.
budman3 - February 21, 2012
he is awful with staffs now.
how the hell do you figure we have a young staff? we have more playoff pitching experience than nearly any team in baseball. give me a break. this is an awful idea.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Hellickson, Moore, Cobb...
Davis is only in his 3rd full season and Price has still shown he struggles at times to mix up his pitches and show confidence in some of throwing certain pitches through stretches of games. Having play-off experience(even successful ) only amounts to a total of Price(22 IP), Davis(7IP), Moore(10 IP), and Hellickson(4 IP) is not as quantitive as you claim.
And please show me a link that says no pitcher wants to work with him. It’s an only an awful idea if you refuse to see what he can bring to the team(including mentoring young catchers) as an experienced back-up.
budman3 - February 21, 2012
all he does is call fbs whenever anyone is on base. he's a douchebag too.
he’s awful. ill believe it when i see it.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
also its about more than just playoff experience these guys have pitched in playoff runs.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
You could say the same about a lot of contending teams and the Rays would still fall short on the experience list
Even with Shields, Rays staff has only 12 post season starts….Yankees(27), Red Sox(39), Angels(17). I would think they have plenty of play-off run experience too.
You have numbers to indicate that Pudge calls only FB’s with runners on? I’ll believe it when I see it.
budman3 - February 21, 2012
so we're 4th in terms of playoff starts?
id say thats pretty good experience.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Nobody knows how he works with staffs outside of teams
It doesn’t speak well for Pudge that he’s still without a job. Not after backup catchers like Matt Treanor got $1 million this offseason. If he were some savant at game-calling some team out there would’ve added him. Either he’s asking for too much money, he’s not as good at the intangible things that his name would suggest, or some combination thereof.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
i've watched him the last 2 years almost every night he's played. he's cooked.
rglass44 - February 21, 2012
Nobody should expect much out of Molina's bat, and he's still got 20-something OBP points on Rodriguez.
Also, if you want to talk about the staff-handling, that’s fine, but Lobaton did work with some of these guys in the minors. I guess you can question his competence, but I don’t know how, seeing as we’ve barely seen him catch in the majors.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
Valid but his number of games caught per season has been decreasing the last 4 years as well
Which is one of my concerns(as with Chirinos’ health) along with Molina. The Rays catching staff appears very fragile and inexperienced after Molina. Which is why I think AF was looking for more catching options this winter and is likely still interested at this point.
budman3 - February 21, 2012
Lobaton's durability is a question, no doubt.
I would point out that Ryan Hanigan—the only confirmed name—isn’t exactly a catch-and-throw type though, as he has the third highest OBP amongst catchers since 2009. Without knowing who else—if anyone else—Friedman inquired on, I can’t really say if they were interested in adding a backup type or someone who might be blocked on a catching-strong team.
R.J. Anderson - February 21, 2012
___________ couldn’t possibly be that bad.
This usually goes well.
Hatfield - February 21, 2012
"Making a dinosaur theme park from this mosquito trapped in amber" couldn't possibly be that bad.
Ryan Gilliss - February 21, 2012
A very fine example, indeed.
Hatfield - February 21, 2012
ITT: a watermelon farmer from the rust belt and a used car salesman from the warzone discuss a scholarly work.
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
Welcome to "Legendary Hater" status
It’s well-earned.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
i meant no disrespect, your people do a great service to the picnickers of our great country.
pudieron89 - February 21, 2012
Saving your heart for pennies should be an everyday occurrence.
Sandy Kazmir - February 21, 2012
Amen.
Hatfield - February 21, 2012
Honestly, id say there is a better chance longoria is using her
BossmanJunior333 - February 21, 2012 via mobile
RACK HIM
Ryan Gilliss - February 22, 2012
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