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The Rays Tank: Spring Training Is Here!

Finally! The long, cold winter is over! Well, not really, but even if it may still be mid-February, we at least know that down in Port Charlotte, the Tampa Bay Rays have started Spring Training. Today is truly a glorious day.

There aren't any pictures in the queue yet from the Rays' camp --- C'MON GETTY, GET ON IT! -- but we'll be sure to post some later today as they become available. There's not much else we can do at this point beyond looking at photos of ST and oo-ing and ahh-ing at baseballs being thrown around, but for me, that's enough right now.

Other news and notes this morning:

  • How was Fan Fest? I'm interested to hear people's thoughts. It always seems like a great time, even though I can never go.
  • The Pirates and Yankees finally completed their rumored Burnett trade on Friday, leaving the Yankees open to sign Raul Ibanez this morning. Neither development is unexpected, but I don't like the idea of Ibanez's power in Yankee Stadium. That's not going to be particularly fun to face.
  • Tim Wakefield retired on Friday, inspiring Joe Poz to pen a lengthy blog post on him (and knuckleballers in general). I love knucklers, which is likely the main reason I overpaid for R.A. Dickey in a fantasy draft last night.
  • Kevin Goldstein released his top 20 prospects list for the Rays, and he seems a little more pessimistic on the system than others. Although pessimistic isn't the exact right word -- he has tempered expectations about the system once you look behind Matt Moore. I can't necessarily disagree with his logic, but I suppose I have a large amount of faith (possibly too much faith) in the Rays' player development program. They have plenty of players with a number of tools, so even though their are question marks everywhere, I really like the system's depth right now.

    Also, Goldstein envisions Brandon Guyer as a fourth outfielder, and I don't know if I can get behind that.
  • This is another BPro post behind a paywall, but R.J. Anderson previewed the AL East with Jason Collette. It's a fun read and I definitely recommend it if you have a BPro subscription.
  • Brian Cashman shared some thoughts about the Wild Card this weekend, and in the course of advocating the new Wild Card system, he dropped a subtle dig at the Rays: "We conceded the division two years ago cause of the previous setup. [...] I'm not taking away from Tampa Bay's eastern division title, but we didn't try to win the division."

    Okay, calling that a "dig" is too strong. It's true, isn't it? We all knew that the Yanks were trying to get ready for the playoffs, and honestly, the same can be said of the Rays. Both teams glided into the playoffs without any real effort, and neither team seemed to actively want to win the division. So in my mind, this doesn't cheapen the 2010 division crown, and it is yet another reason to change the Wild Card format.

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Comments

Don't forget the aggregate prospect list that RaysProspects has up

http://t.co/Wqqr6hsd

The epherma bit on Alex Torres on the BP list is fascinating

Had no idea his bases empty/runners on splits were that drastic

YES! I love this time of year

Wait, what do you mean there are no games yet?

grumblegrumblegrumble

They don't even work out today

I learned this yesterday when I went to the Astros camp on my way to the airport only to learn that they weren’t scheduled to work out until today :(

They should at least make the team physicals open to the public

or not…

Man ass -- the first true sign of spring
More ST pics please
FanFest was really a nice time, 2nd year for me.

For any fan of the game, do yourself a favor and when attending a Rays game this season, make time to see the Ted Williams hitters museum. I was blown away at how many exhibits they had and how state of the art it was. Allow at least 90 min

TW museum is indeed awesome
Ready

I am looking forward to the first MLB.TV Rays ST game way too much. I really wish I could have visited during ST this year.

Here is a Fan Fest Photo Gallery

I took several hundred pictures. Some of them are garbage and there are some repeat shots, but I also got some really good photos too.

https://plus.google.com/u/0/b/108718747313460741456/photos/108718747313460741456/albums/5710720828710925921

Awesome. A few things:

1. Is Molina pushing 300 lbs?

2. Does Briggy look chunky to anyone else? Just a bad angle?

3. I don’t get to watch the games, so I don’t always know what everyone looks like, but I usually recognize guys in pictures from the internet and whatnot, but who is the guy with the tattooed arm?

I only saw Briggy sitting down.

But I agree that his face looks chunky. Maybe it is camera angle, but he looked like that to naked eye as well.

Guy with tattooed arm is Matt Mangini.

That would explain it.

Was he involved in the Jaso deal? Minor league FA?

Minor league free agent.

Josh Lueke was player in Jaso deal.

Yes, I knew that.

I saw he played for the Mariners and thought maybe he was shoved into the trade through the back door or something, along with Lueke.

RIM SHOT!

(Lueke is the gift that keeps on giving)

So stealth I didn't even notice it
I'd love to see the Rays now swoop up one of the few RH bats left in an Ibanez type deal or

even a minor league type—Vladdy or Maggs

I don't want either of those guys, but I'd like to see a bat added as well

I’d rather have Manny and watch him sit the first 1/3 of the season than watch either of those guys try to stay healthy.

Maggs has said he will retire rather than take a minor league deal

I wouldn’t count on him

Fuld is good at writing, too:

http://tinyurl.com/77zyn5v

So good.

Fuld is just too like-able. It’s not fair.

Quoting Win Expectancy and all.

If had thrown in a Nate Silver reference I’d buy his jersey and his book—whenever he writes one.

Oh, if he ever publishes a book, I'm definitely snagging that.
Couldn't be happier that he's gotten a chance with the Rays.

His willingness to use his fame from that hot run to raise awareness about diabetes speaks to his character.

Thanks for passing that along, still get tingles thinking about Longo's 3R homer, DanJo's dinger, the walk off, love Sam talking about playing through that injury
On my plane from ATL to Wichita yesterday, had a Sox fan sitting across the aisle from me

Pulled up the game 162 video and left it at an angle so he could see what I was looking at

Felt good

You're the worst kind of fan
Dude was wearing a jersey and a hat.....had to be done
Gotta be careful though, bad karma can bite back hard.

Oh screw that – nice work!!!

"...who log more hours at work than a first-year investment banker at Goldman Sachs."

This made me laugh.

Nice knowing you, Wade
“I’m a starter,” he said. “I don’t see any reason for me to be in the bullpen. I understand they’ve got to do certain things, but we’ll see. … I definitely want to be a starter and stay a starter forever. And that’ll be my mentality.”

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/either-wade-davis-or-jeff-niemann-appears-likely-to-wind-up-in-bullpen/1216194

Good riddens you Lake Wales Redneck.

Oh…wait…

It's good that he wants to fight and improve a ton from last year and all.

…But hopefully he started wrapping his mind around a bullpen role in the coming weeks. Because his odds of making the rotation have got to be pretty slim.

Luckily Niemann will be hurt by May so it's not like it would be a permanent move
As long as he isn't firing the ball at 94-98 like he thinks he will be.
Pretty sure if he's told to go to the pen he'll do it. He can pout, but he'll do it
He wouldn't have a choice.
Davis said there haven’t been any conversations — yet, anyway — with anyone from the Rays about possibly ending up in the bullpen. And if he is sent that way, he might end up approaching them, though he wouldn’t have much leverage to force a trade.

“If it ever did come to that, it’s something we’d talk about then,” he said.

Topkin kind of puts words in his mouth here. He never mentions anything about a “trade” but Topkin makes it seems like he did. Bad journalism imo

I just think it's dumb on his part because he already has his guaranteed deal.

It’s not like he’s arb-eligible where he needs the innings to boost his value. He gets paid the same no matter what so it would be nice if he’d just say something along the lines of I’m willing to do whatever it takes to help the team win. Once his contract is up then he’ll still be able to go out and get another deal, perhaps with a resume of being a very good high-leverage reliever under his belt.

If he was still year to year I might be more sympathetic, but he’s already getting paid now and in the future.

I agree. His quote wasn't ideal but if you just read the quote alone it doesn't sound so bad
"I’m a starter, I don’t see any reason for me to be in the bullpen. I understand they’ve got to do certain things, but we’ll see. … I definitely want to be a starter and stay a starter forever. And that’ll be my mentality. If it ever did come to that, it’s something we’d talk about then"

I don’t want to defend Wade here. But I feel that Topkins surrounding text makes it sound worse than it is.

You can definitely read that as him showing backbone and saying that he's going to work hard in spring training to prove that, but

my thing is why do you even have to come out and say that? Were you not going to work as hard before if the spot was guaranteed?

I agree that it wasn't the best thing to say

but to act like he might “ask for a trade” is crossing the line imo

i dont think he said anything wrong at all.
Is there a way to stop being a member of a site on here?

I know I did it with Lookout Landing before, but I can’t figure it out for Bleed Cubbies Blue.

What did you do to that poor man?
Posting this one for Glass's sake:
13. Jake Hager, SS: Thirty-second overall pick is a crazy athlete, capable of staying at shortstop and hitting a bit.
first time i've heard him described as an "athlete."

that makes me think he’s toolsier than i had previously expected.

That stuck out to me, too.

I’d heard the last two bits.

yup

the bex write-up was silly. “he improved a ton, but i still dont like him as much as when he went 1-1.”

The baserunning instincts part is interesting.
Not as interesting as this:
JC: They’ve added more arms to the staff, but it was a lot of quantity and little quality. The best move they made was the internal promotion of Jim Johnson to the closer role and the cheap addition of Wilson Betemit.
SCC gonna be rootin' for WB against Rays pitching every AB.
I'm naming all of my fantasy teams the Sissy Cucks this year
Liar
I'm going with Lueke's Backdoor Sliders

®

I'm a fan of good moves

I’m happy the Yankees took Ibanez over Betemit

Ibanez will hit 20 bombs in that park
I think he's DFA'd before the year is out
yeah. i dont really get it.

everyone talks about how much they thought he improved this year, but it seems like they dont believe that could continue. he just played his age 21 season.

Seems like he's grading in as average or better across the board.

Good sign given where we were 12 months ago. More work to do, but he’s on his way.

yessir
Mahtook and Vettleson got dinged for the same things as Beckham.

Good all over just isn’t as sexy as great at one tool.

yeah. i generally dont prefer that profile.
I would guess it produces fewer stars, but perhaps more regulars than the guys with a great tool.
It depends on which tool is great

All tools are great, but some are greater than others

power>>>>>>>
Can't top the grit & scrapiness tool
Bustin O'Conner agrees
yes. id much rather have a guy with 80 speed.
Or you could stop being a horse's ass and realize that there isn't a blanket approach across the board because these are human beings not automatons.
you're right. i do obviously have one rote approach i never sway from that ive elucidated here.
You, like the Rays offense, just need to be more consistent
wait, what? one comment ago you said "there isnt a blanket approach across the board" and now one comment later i need to be more "consistent?"
Gawd you're so easy
I dunno, I think people would rally around 80-hit tools instead.

If it’s a big guy, you assume the power will come—it doesn’t always, of course. Small guys, well, you usually aren’t expecting much power to begin with.

yes
No idea how we could test this without digging through years of BA reports.
yeah. very labor intensive. thats why i wish BA et al would hire a data intern to track things like this.

have their analysts grade out prospects and keep track. the problem is not only the work, but it would force them to be more accountable as well.

I think it was Bill James who said players who're great at one thing and meh at everything else are overrated, while players who're solid at everything are underrated
unless the one thing they do exceptionally well is hit for average
It's too late RJ

He’s a bust, if you’re a 21yo SS who went 1-1, you should be an MVP candidate already! #irrationaldemands

To be fair.

He isn’t even universally considered a top 100 prospect. It’s pretty easy to see why he has gotten the “bust” label

He's a disappointment rather than a bust
lol. he's 22 and he's already a disappointment.
I don't think it is unfair to say he's disappointed us a bit

Not that he can’t be good or anything, just that he’s not wow’d us

im just hesitant to calla guy a disappointment until he's fulfilled his commitment to the team (either out of baseball or signed a FA contract or traded).
To some

it doesn’t appear you’ll consider Beckham a disappointment until you’ve slept with him. :)

I mean that in the kindest possible way.

I do agree he’s been maligned more than deserved. But I also think you sometimes carry the ARL thing a bit farther than it’s legs should carry it.

Fact is he continues to move up and isn’t regressing in the process, which it seems has turned the opinion trend in the opposite direction.

Last year was a good sign

but he has been a disappointment overall compared to expectations.

That doesn’t mean he still won’t be a useful player. Hell it doesn’t even mean he can’t be a great player.

question: what would make him not a bust? what is the cutoff at 1-1 to not be a bust in your eyes?
If he is a useful player at the ML level

then he isn’t a bust.

I agree with this.

He should have some sort of role for a number of years in MLB and accumulate a positive amount of WAR.

You have to remember the guy playing too
ok. thats about where i fall. id be pretty surprised if he never reaches taht level.
He's a good question

Can MAtt Bush de-bust himself as a reliever?

not if im a padres fan
No the Padres picked him

That pick was a complete bust

Here are the number one picks who played the field via B-Ref WAR:

Tm Player Pos WAR G WAR/150
Twins Joe Mauer (minors) C 40.3 918 6.58
Mariners Alex Rodriguez (minors) SS 104.6 2402 6.53
Braves Chipper Jones (minors) SS 82.7 2387 5.2
Devil Rays Josh Hamilton (minors) OF 20.2 589 5.14
Mariners Ken Griffey (minors) OF 78.6 2671 4.41
Marlins Adrian Gonzalez (minors) 1B 28.2 1017 4.16
Mets Darryl Strawberry (minors) OF 42.9 1583 4.07
Braves Bob Horner (minors) 3B 21 1020 3.09
Diamondbacks Justin Upton (minors) SS 11.5 581 2.97
Yankees Ron Blomberg (minors) 1B 8.7 461 2.83
Angels Darin Erstad (minors) OF 27.8 1654 2.52
Athletics Rick Monday (minors) OF 32.7 1986 2.47
Brewers B.J. Surhoff (minors) SS 34.4 2313 2.23
White Sox Harold Baines (minors) 1B 37 2830 1.96
Astros Phil Nevin (minors) 3B 15.9 1217 1.96
Pirates Jeff King (minors) SS 14.7 1201 1.84
Phillies Pat Burrell (minors) 3B 18.7 1640 1.71
Senators Jeff Burroughs (minors) OF 17.2 1689 1.53
Padres Mike Ivie (minors) C 7.2 857 1.26
Cubs Shawon Dunston (minors) SS 10 1814 0.83
Padres Bill Almon (minors) SS 2.7 1236 0.33
Mets Tim Foli (minors) SS 1.2 1696 0.11
Devil Rays Delmon Young (minors) OF -0.2 729 -0.04
Padres Dave Roberts (minors) 3B -0.7 709 -0.15
Mets Shawn Abner (minors) OF -1.3 392 -0.5
Angels Danny Goodwin (minors) C -1.4 252 -0.83
White Sox Danny Goodwin (minors) C -1.4 252 -0.83
Mariners Al Chambers (minors) OF -0.7 57 -1.84

Granted, it's a career look, but only seven players had career WAR/150 games over four wins.

So despite the aspirations you aren’t always getting a superstar player at number one.

Is there a quick way to translate this to fWAR?

Probably not, but I thought I’d ask.

Not that I know of, sorry.
That's okay.

I shouldn’t be so lazy.

put them both in excel.

take all the 1-1s and all the career wars. then do a vlookup on the 1-1 names to pull the fWAR.

yup. i think he's seriously hurt by the fact that he was one of the few players to go 1-1 that wasnt a consensus pick.
Or the our C situation would be locked down if only we took Posey.

I still think he’s going to be more productive than the average #1 overall.

The first comment was sarcastic.

Just wanted to clarify.

assuming buster can play as well again.
And that he can stick at C

Depends on his true bat

Would the Rays have taught him to get out of the way if he doesn't have the ball in his glove?
Or he was hurt by lukewarm feelings right off the bat that never changed because first impressions last a lifetime
I wonder if coming right before Strasburg and Harper and right after Price hurt.

It’s like Andrew Bogut. Good player, but came after LeBron James and Dwight Howard—and in the same class as Chris Paul and Deron Williams—so you don’t think of him as being a good number one guy, but I bet he stacks up well career wise to some of the other jokers.

exactly
Price has turned out fine, but I'm surprise more people don't wonder what if with Wieters.
Wieters is at least trending the right way

He is probably the best C in the AL now

matusz backtracking helped that line of thinking.
Kinda hoping Matusz puts it back together.

Liked him a lot as a pitcher. I know, division rival, whatever. Baseball is better with more good players.

yeah. i liked him and just feel bad for blOw's fans.
Do we really need to mock the O's?
do you ever need to mock anyone? taht's what my o's fan friends call them anyway.
But the O's gunned down the Sox.

I have a hard time crapping on them at the moment.

i cheer for them most of the time. doesnt mean i dont like a derogatory nickname.
I don't expect superstar

but I do expect solid everyday player with the #1 pick

Are you happy with what Beej has done as a #2 pick? How about Niemann at #4

How about Delmon as a #1? I think you have to expect Beckham to be somewhere between Niemann and Beej and that’s a pretty good place

Delmon at 1, 2003 was not a kind draft year
I'm happy with Beej. Niemann is fine.

Glad we unloaded DY.

this is me.
This should be everyone

Though Niemann over Weaver is a little disappointing

Weaver and Drew had signability questions, hence why they slipped.
CURSE YOU SCOTT BORAS
Upton's at 3.06/150

Niemann’s at about 1.50/30

So an average to slightly above average player. I don’t think that’s unrealistic for Beckham. He might even top that.

B-Ref really hates Upton's 2006.

FG and BP combined don’t have it as low as B-Ref.

What's Mike Cameron's per 150?
3.58
That Upton vs Cameron comp is really shaping up
he retired today. :(
Niemann has been worth around 4.9 WAR averaging FG and B-Ref over let's say the first three years of his deal

if he gets another 5ish WAR over the last three of his team control then we’ll say he’s worth 10 WAR over 6 years. I think any draft pick that does this, regardless of draft position, is a useful player. Obviously, you’d like a guy to do more than that with an early pick, but it’s not like Zobrist was a high pick and he’s been one of the best players in the league the last three years. I think people shouldn’t have such high expectations for high picks and should be happy when their team gets a fantastic player anywhere in the draft, because they’re rare.

4+ WAR/150 is All Time Great
282 players in MLB history have at least 1000 games with a WAR/150 over 4.
7 out of 29 becoming HOF level players is pretty high

at least in my opinion.

Justin Upton is an outstanding player and he isn’t even at 3 WAR/150 at this point.

Yeah, I'd bet on J. Upton getting there.
And for pitchers over 30 starts:

Tm Player Pos WAR ? G WAR/30
Nationals Stephen Strasburg (minors) RHP 2.1 17 3.71
Devil Rays David Price (minors) LHP 10.4 94 3.32
Orioles Ben McDonald (minors) RHP 19.8 211 2.82
Padres Andy Benes (minors) RHP 29.6 405 2.19
Twins Tim Belcher (minors) RHP 24.6 394 1.87
Astros Floyd Bannister (minors) LHP 24.1 431 1.68
Mariners Mike Moore (minors) RHP 24.9 451 1.66
Pirates Kris Benson (minors) RHP 11 208 1.59
Royals Luke Hochevar (minors) RHP 1.1 100 0.33
Rangers David Clyde (minors) LHP 0.4 85 0.14
Mets Paul Wilson (minors) RHP 0.5 171 0.09
Tigers Matt Anderson (minors) RHP -1.4 257 -0.16
Pirates Bryan Bullington (minors) RHP -0.4 26 -0.46

Again not ideal, but it shows you how awful most of these guys have been.

28 players here (only included the guys who reached the majors) so it works out to tiers of seven.

This is ranked by WAR/150 rather than raw WAR, so Blomberg is over Surhoff, etc.. I think I’d take Surhoff instead, but maybe that’s just me.

Not really worth worrying about perceptions.

If he doesn’t become a superstar, so what? As long as he can help a winning ballclub that’s the important thing. It’s not ideal to land the third or fourth best player in the top-10 at number one, but I think everyone can understand why they chose him, and as long as he doesn’t mess up by being lazy or irresponsible off the field, then I’d like to think people will be okay with what happens.

"oh wait, are we calling beckham a bust? better run to make sure i do."
Just to clarify this comment

I’m not saying Beckham is a bust. I’m just saying to the casual fan it’s easy to see why they would think that way.

I did call Beckham a bust before this year. He proved me wrong and had a strong year. I hope he can follow it up with another one.

Wasn't it Imp who didn't like him?
Correct.

I like what I’m hearing this off-season though

It isn't like you would be wrong by not liking the pick though.
Bonus pools are out:

http://ht.ly/9aVJn

With hard slotting will this even matter?
Furthermore, what's to stop a team from drafting a ton of overslot guys and just signing one that depletes their entire cap and takes 9 other guys out of the talent pool for other teams
If you don't sign the player then his cap value is erased.
.

BA:

Notably, if you don’t sign one of your picks in the first 10 rounds, you can’t spend that money on other picks. You lose that allotment from your signing allowance. Also, any bonus for more than $100,000 for a pick after the 10th round also counts as part of a team’s signing allowance.
Well that's good, seems like they're really lining things up to allow draft pick trading
Of course this should help:
Baseball will also add a lottery for six extra picks following both the first and second rounds, which will not take effect until the 2013 draft. Teams that are in the bottom 10 in revenue and/or market size go into a pool for six picks after the first round, with odds of winning based on the prior season’s winning percentage. Teams that don’t get one of those picks—and any other team that receives money from revenue sharing—then goes into another lottery for six picks after the second round. The odds of winning are based on prior season winning percentage.

Except for that last bit. Those lottery picks can be dealt, so it’ll be interesting to see how that works.

Found it interesting after all the wailing and teeth gnashing

The total 1st 10 round pool money is a mere 2 million less than that spent in 2011, though with 2 more supplemental round 1 picks this year.

Some individual teams may be facing changes, but the crying about the poor clubs not being able to continue spending their way to contention here is more than balanced by the spending restraints on winning clubs.

Certainly not a good situation for the Rays, being a winner, but the year to year comp is realy skewed by the phenomenal number of supplemental picks the Rays had in 2011 – something that will never happen again under this system.

Hard slotting is so awful
If you don't like it go throw your life away playing football, see ya in your wheelchair in 10 years, I'll be sure to wipe the droll from your face
I guess I'll just have to go the NBA route
Nightclub shooting.
Does it actually benefit anyone?

Seems like both owners and players lose.

The 5 owners dumb enough to go with slot only benefit
owners win by keeping costs controlled
But they lose out on talent.
possibly.
Really?

I’d think they’d lose a lot of kids to college this way.

theyll lose some. im not sure how many or how much of a difference it will make to an individual club.

theres still a 2-sport bonus i believe. on the whole, though, it will transfer a lot of money from amateur athletes to professional billionaires.

Callis only had the decrease of a few million from 2010

So it wasn’t TOO bad

yes, but how much have these costs gone up recently? how much more would they be going up in the future? they control that now.
It's revenue-tied I think so as MLB revenue increases, so do bonuses

Callis has the first 10 rounds at 189M this year, compared to 191M last year

How many kids sign for overslot each year? Honest question, because I hear this thrown out all the time and I'd like to know just how many players we're talking about here
I have no idea.

I hear about it, too, which is why I mentioned it.

You think Stu is for hard slotting?
no idea. it isnt like we outspend in the draft. as more big revenue teams adopt the sawx approach the less we benefit from a lack of slot.
im pretty sure frieds had a quote saying something to this extent and how this helps us.
Well I hope it does

but I know it’s been pretty much universally viewed as really hurting small market teams.

...

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-deal-unfair-to-small-market-teams-112211

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/did-a-steinbrenner-write-the-new-cba/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15572

Much of those analyses missed the constraints

that winning teams face under this structure, over focusing on some very short term comps of recent spending by a couple of clubs that weren’t necessarily indicative of a long term trend.
Also, much of this derives from off the cuff analysis before all details were available.

Washington was widely trumpeted, but the fact is their spending of late was skewed by a couple of very high profile, high dollar signings.

But the key backend point is Glass’ above – money will move, and the only remaining unconstrained outlet is free agency, where big money is dominant. But that has also always been the case.

The real growth in player payroll in the last few years ahs been in the arbitration system. And remarkably, this was actually loosened. To my thinking here, the MLBPA – which doesn’t represent minors or potential draftees – kicked ass in this deal.

i mean i dont love it. i just think the effect on the revenue curve may be overstatded. especially considering the pool for foreign players.
mlbnetwork showing "Top 40 finishes from 2011."

we wer number 2. love these highlights.

WTF could have been #1?
Game 6 I'm sure
as someone living in a Cardinal-centric area that doesn't care about them,

I was at a bar after work for Game 6 and I had a blast. Not as much fun to me as 162 but that probably has to do with my Rays fandom. I’ll always extrinsically view accomplishments over a larger sample size as more impressive, but to the non-Cards non-Rays fans I’m not surprised Game 6 was a bigger finish. Again, really enjoyed both.

that was my reaction. then i remembered the playoffs happened and they likely included them.
The way the Sox finished their season!??!

Please!

Well it sure didn't help the Yankees any in 2010, did it?
Sveet spewing shit, morans responding to him.

zzzz

Pudding Ron,

What shit have I spewed?

Would love to hear this

I listened to a little of Joe at Charlotte today

Doesn’t sound good for Brignac and his two fans. Joe said ST is really not for evaluation or job competition, aka Sean Rod is our SS

I'm okay with this.

Nathan Haynes would disagree.

It's probably Reid vs EJ for the backup IF spot
Neither will be on the OD roster--Book it
Who will be the 25th man? Guyer?
Possible or a minor deal sign--but NO way

a bench of Fuld, back up C, Brignac/Johnson and Kepp

Don't see who would be a good Minor deal

At least as a good veteran

Maggs for sure and/or Vladdy

but even Damon or Maysui for $1.2 mil in the event Scott or someone else gets hurt

They're not coming on those terms

That’s the only problem. They want to be everyday players & be paid like it.

Ok, let's do it this way--Find me the scenario at this point

where any of them will get $3mil+ and 500 AB

They won't

They’ll join Jermaine Dye on the couch

We're set on lefties, only guy I'd take is D. Lee
pretty certain he's retiring, but how set are we if

either of Joyce/Pena/Scott get injiured?

We're better positioned than most teams. Guyer/Fuld is an average everyday player, IMO. Pena/Scott cover well for each other and again Guyer brings a bat if need be.
i just don't see the aforementioned names retiring, so the
They may not have a choice

a la Sheffield

I don't see Lee retiring while Maggs/Vladdy/Damon/Matsui all find jobs

Lee can still play 1B and hit lefties, none of those other guys can field any position

Lee i believe has a family situation with a young sickly child

and if he can’t play in CHI he won’t play

Then he's not playing as expected
That's interesting

I hadn’t heard about that

Here it is
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=2877228
Then take the 440K contract from the Rays while they make a matching donation to this charity

He gets one last chance to do what he does and the charity gets upwards of 880K. The Rays look good for accommodating the player as well as making a donation which they’ve done for virtually every other deal they’ve made and Lee gets the chance to be a part of that. His daughter isn’t going to get better by him being around, but close to a million dollars buys an awful lot of research.

obviously it isn't money that motivates him to play baseball

you like many won’t factor in the human element of the game—sadly

You're right, I'm a heartless monster
And not to nitpick

but the minimum is $480 this year.

I think Guyer/Fuld would be more than average

in terms of WAR, accounting for defense and everything. I wouldn’t be shocked to see 2-3 WAR come out of that platoon, although I’d rather have Guyer as an everyday player.

And from the sound of it, it will only take a minor league deal
I just don't have faith in things you say to book anymore :(
.
@TRancel
3m
Aka don’t look at ST batting avg RT @stevecarney According to @RaysJoeMaddon the SS battle will come down to “under the hood things.” #Rays
I look forward to a spring training of SF1 shoehorning "Reid won't be on the roster" and "Sign Vlad/Maggs" into every post
I'm already growing tired of it
If you've got a drum set you might as well beat the shit out of that drum set until everyone knows that you've got a drum set
I'd put my nutsack on that drumset
laugh as you may, but i said two things and i'll own up if wrong

1-Brignac or Johnson will not be on the OD roster

2- The 25th man will be a bat of some sort

Yes, the issue is that you say both of these things multiple times every day, we get it.
and as long as there are those that say something different i'll continue--it's called debating
Shouting your opinion at anyone that disagrees is not debate
says the guy who went from lead writer to perma banned in a few short months
I'm no angel, being better than me should is a responsibility, not a right
i dont think anyone disagrees with either of those things.

one of ej or briggy wont be on the od roster, and i’d imagone kepp will be considered the 25th man.

That's the funniest part, no one really disagrees with one permutation of this or another
I said neither will be--read it please
lol...taht isnt what you said:
1-Brignac or Johnson will not be on the OD roster
Meant nor, if you read both as being one thought.

And I kinda hope he’s right.

Thanks RJ--when their boys especially Reid languishes in the minors we'll see if the retractions come

and this is not personal v Brignac

You would never make something personal...
things i’d find funny: Syracuse losing by 20 in Gm 1 of NCAA Tourney to a 16 seed
he may have. but that isnt what he typed.
I typed Scott Weiland when I meant Kyle Weiland in my BPro piece today.

It happens.

I bet that made you Fall To Pieces
well that didnt change what the sentence meant.

i just find it funny that he thinks we can read because he cant type. i still havent seen “the retraction come.”

It does, unless you think the Stone Temple Pilots singer started for Boston last year.
Does explain the results.
He famously didn't show up to the STP show in Tampa.

Everyone else did. Scott just…. didn’t show up.

unless you've been under a rock, maybe you have, i think i've been pretty clear on this
you are never clear on anything. too much equivocating and typos.
i think most grads here understand me pretty well--sorry if YOU do not
i dont understand why youre getting bent out of shape because you made a typo. im sorry i read what you wrote instead of what you intended to write.
Probably because missing a letter has derailed his comment from a legit baseball topic to typing lessons.
well then he shouldnt be an ass when people respond to WHAT HE TYPED.

i made a legit comment and he pitched a hissy fit.

don't bother RJ--baseball isn't spoken here much anymore
waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Please learn what the words "and" and/or "or" means
love the syntax here
He's just doing it to distract from how bad his "at least 2/3 of Kotch, Shop and Damon" prediction was
I think everyone is glad that turned out to be wrong, including Sterny.
i made that very clear--but i wouldn't mind Shop at #1.15mil right now, but i'll concede to Andrew
Hopefully Lobaton shows some hitting chops.

I think his defense will be fine-to-good, just needs to be better than horrendous to be fine.

Or stop getting hurt!

Just trade Niemann for Hanigan fair swap

I don't think that's a fair swap for Cincy.

Hanigan has the third-highest on-base percentage amongst catchers since 2009. Niemann’s got a 97 adjusted-earned run average over that same time—or about a league-average starting pitcher—despite pitching in front of a good defense and in a pitchers’ park. Add in costs and injuries, and Niemann’s more of a number four. I don’t know if that’s equal value for Hanigan if you believe he’s this good with the bat..

era+ factors in park but not strength of opposition. i have a hard time dinging him for the defense and park then.
Where do you have him then?

I’m guessing he’s an average-ish starter (key word being starter, not pitcher) with injury issues and escalating costs. Yeah, moving away from the ALE helps some, but I don’t think it makes him a number two type.

that i agree with. i just dont think you should use era+ then try to ding him for park and defense when park is included in that and defense is mitigated by competition.
Fair enough.
(I'd still prefer keeping Davis over him.)
id move whichever brings back more. niemanns injury concerns fit well with our depth and he's been better when healthy.
Depends on the return, but I'm opposed to selling low on Davis.

His post-DL stuff gave me some hope.

If they take the kid gloves off on his slider I think he could be a better weapon, but they're just so

hesitant to let a starter throw it since Scotty Kaz blew it out. When he’s throwing his curveball and slider with confidence and spotting his fastball he’s a pretty good pitcher.

do you really think Kaz is the reason?

that just seems dumb. one guy is a very, very small sample size.

Obviously, not, but I'd imagine there's research out there to support this

It shouldn’t be a surprise that guys that primarily throw fastballs and change ups have better longevity than guys that are throwing pitches that require more elbow torque, especially the slider.

Kaz is the last player that they let throw the pitch (amongst starters) whenever he wanted, while forcing Price, Hammel, Garza, Davis etc… to all but abandon the pitch. They have continually had guys focus on learning a cutter (Shields, Sonny, Price etc…) despite the pitch not being all that effective in most cases.

This is what Davis said last year:
On his curveball: "I learned it when I was in my third year of pro ball. I had thrown a slider in high school, kind of a cutter-slider, and they taught me a curveball when I got to low-A. They said, ‘don’t throw your slider anymore, just learn a curveball,’ so I threw 20 or 30 curveballs a game. That’s how I learned.

There was a study suggesting this: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/26/sports/baseball/26score.html?_r=1

But it got debunked in a way: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/7/27/964592/on-elbows-and-curves-in-young

I also noticed that the slider rank continued to drop, but I’m not sure if it’s by the org’s choice or just how things worked out: http://theprocessreport.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/the-rays-rotation-and-sliders/

I'm fine with the Rays developing Jeremy Hellickson types instead of Josh Johnson types

As long as they commit to fielding a great defense you can get whiffs with the change instead of the slider. You still need a pitch for same-handers whether it’s the fastball or the occasional curve, but as long as the change is kept down then you’re dealing with healthy, ground-balling pitchers that still get plenty of strikeouts.

the difference in overall stuff is a lot. price is much more comparable.
Well, Hellickson's had some injury woes himself.

But I get your point.

Though Archer gives me pause, unless the plan all along has been to move him to the pen

You can’t take away his slider because then he’s a one pitch guy and he’s too far developed to make him start over.

yeah you cant take away his best pitch.
Can't imagine they'll move Archer to the pen if they still have aspirations of Colome starting

Which was the suggestion given by Mayo or the BA report. Colome seems like the bigger mess between those two.

Throw in Lara and Torres and the Rays have really cornered the market on

future Gio Gonzalez’s

I'm still optimistic about Archer.

Athletic enough that he should tighten up his command. His change made some progress. With two grade-70 pitches you might not need a lot more to get by. If they can ease him off using his slider so much that could help, too.

goldsteins mention that the change improved was pretty big.
Neil Allen (I think?) saying he's got another phenom after watching Archer in the bullpen is still a good story to me.
His change looked good in Durham.
What does athleticism have to do with command?

Anecdotally many of the least fit pitchers (Buehrle, Colon, Silva, Sabathia) have great command

Repeating mechanics
How does being athletic help with that though?

This is a legitimate question. I don’t know much about baseball mechanics themselves

lol

try repeating any muscle memory activity. the more well coordinated (read: athletic) the easier it is.

Right, and more athleticism means you can make adjustments easier.

Basically, go outside and try repeating a pitching delivery. Then think about how the best pitchers have little variation in their deliveries to the naked eye.

You can think about all the moving parts too.

Weight shift, balance, arm angle, arm action, release point, and so on. You want it to look easy.

I'm not intuitively understanding your point, but I'll take your word for it
Well the pros make it look easy

Like I said, go outside and set up a target similar to the catcher’s mitt, put some space between you an the target, and then go through all the motions. There’s a lot of moving parts that have to sync just right in order to spot pitches as well as the pros do.

I spent parts of Saturday night walking around the city throwing snowballs at hard to hit targets

So satisfying when they hit home

I understand that it's extremely complicated to replicate your delivery, and that only the best can do it
you dont think sabathia is athletic?
No?

CC is far from athletic

why? because he's HUGE?

you dont think a guy that is 6’8 and 300+ lbs with that much body control is athletic? this is hilarious.

It's a known fact that latins hate blacks even more than whites
Not a latin despite the sn
Don't think of it as the textbook example of athletic

We’re not talking athletic like Kapler or someone wound tight who looks good on the beach. It’s more about the ability to control your body’s movements.

you're so wrong dude
If you aren't athletic enough

to repeat an unnatural motion to the rotator-cuff, you’re going to suck.

Changing a golf swing by one degree can change the accuracy of the shot by yards.

I understand the injury concern with sliders

So I get trying to ween young pitchers off it. But injury wasn’t really Kaz’s problem so much as he lost a feel for the slider. Well, that and he was/is a headcase.

I guess if we’re telling guys in A ball to throw curves instead, I get that. When you have guys at/near the major league level, it seems like a bad idea.

injury was the reason he couldnt throw his slider and why his arm died.
that's not my recollection

but I could be wrong. It’s happened before. I missed on Doug Froebel back in the day.

2008 was when he started to lose effectiveness in general.

2008 was also the year his slider-usage dropped from the high-teens evry year to 9.6%. his slider also became much less effective that year per FG’s pitch values. 2008 was the year he started the season with a strained elbow, and he was never the same after.

He developed a tear in his UCL that stemmed from a lot of things

(bad conditioning habits, violent throwing motion, etc…), but I think if he didn’t throw the slider then it’s less likely that he develops the tear that ultimately made him disrupt his mechanics, both of which combined to sap him of velocity. The reason he “lost the feel” for his slider is because the team didn’t want to throw such a violent pitch after signing that contract. His stubbornness and immaturity made him a liability (that and him smoking so much weed with David Price) so I’m just happy they were able to get a couple of nice players for him and not be on the hook for his salary. We’ll always have 2005 – 07, though, and hopefully some lessons learned.

Hanigan hits for no power though

League avg bat, and outside of 2010, he’s been a bit below. Maybe need to sweeten the deal a bit, but Niemann for Hanigan isn’t the different in value.

Keep in mind: league-average bats who can play catcher (and he can) are pretty valuable.
*very valuable.
Sure, but still, Hanigan is not like

Some rock of a catcher. Either way, it’s a good fit for both teams.

Don't get defensive when someone points out that you're over-selling your guy and under-selling the other guy

All fans do this, you’ve said your piece, now let it go.

If you were the Reds, would you trade Hanigan for Niemann straight-up?

Usually, if you aren’t hesitant about doing the deal then it’s not a fair one.

No, but more because of his nice contract+Mesoraco being a rookie

Rather than straight up talent.

I guess it depends on what you think you have in Niemann is he guy A the #2-3 or guy B the one who you don’t wish to watch.

But maybe I’m a little more pessimistic on how good Hanigan could be given more playing time.

It's a fair concern about Hanigan.

I tend to think of Niemann as being the back-end guy and I’m scared of his health, so obviously I’d make that swap quickly.

Sure, if you think Niemann is going to struggle to make enough starts

Then yeah bad trade for Cincy-I’m going on an assumption that Niemann is healthy & both parties agree he will remain that way.

At the plate, Hanigan and Jaso were virtually the same in the minors.

Given more ABs, the adjustment to ALE pitching, and switching from a hitters park to a pitchers park, I think Jaso’s 2010 would be Hanigan’s absolute best case scenario.

It’s interesting, but if you take a harder look at Hanigan you’ll see lots of red flags about him being able to take on a larger role in a tougher division and ballpark. At least I did anyway.

Yeah, I wouldn't argue against that point.

It’s the same question you’d have about David Ross (or that people did have about Gregg Zaun). I would add that 2010 John Jaso is a good player to have at catcher. Add in Hanigan’s defensive upgrade, and I’d be willing to trade Niemann for him, I think.

Defense would be the selling point for me.

BtB had him 10th in their overall defensive rankings and BPro had him 9th at framing pitches.

I’ve convinced myself his bat won’t translate well at all, and park adjustments puts his OPS below .700 last year. But given the great D and the chance that he hits close to his career line, I guess they could do worse for Niemann.

Yes and he's attested as much

Sterny admits when wrong instead of relentlessly doubling down and waiting for a bad month to say ha I told you so

I hear we could get Johnny Damon on the cheap
I'd sign him for nothing and then just keep him on the bench strictly for his leadership. Think of him as an extra coach

The extra 2%

2 of Kotchman/Damon/Shop will be on the 2012 team GUARANTEED
This is very, very good.
i just like to pretend that he's forgotten his previous comment about it each time he makes another one. aging is a bitch.
I'd find this funny but it reminds me too much of my grandfather telling me the same Korean War story over and over
things i'd find funny: Syracuse losing by 20 in Gm 1 of NCAA Tourney to a 16 seed
no one disagrees here either
I don't think they'll win it all, because, you'd have to be an idiot to think your team can win it all, but I think they'll have a deep run

I love that every game has a different guy stepping up on offense while the defense is one of the best in the country. Their half court offense bogs down from time to time, but nobody is beyond flaws this year. People ding them for their schedule, but the NCAA today is less about the big name schools dominating how more about how the former also rans can give a game at any time.

We've got a pain in the ass customer who talks about how he can't believe he drives a car made by the people he fought in the Korean War
That car probably has more parts made in America than the American cards
cars*
Doubtful...

and it’s a South Korean car

Did you kidnap him and force him to buy cars from you?
This should get plenty of play in GDTs this year.

IDGI
.
PORT CHARLOTTE — The Rays put considerable effort and emotion into winning the 2010 American League East title, battling to the final day of the season then rallying in extra innings to beat out the Yankees by one game.

But Sunday, New York GM Brian Cashman said his team wasn’t trying — and that the championship “really meant nothing more than a T-shirt and a hat.”

Rays officials, who take great pride in the two division championships they consider the ultimate measure of success, were limited in their response.
.
Maddon on Brian Cashman’s statement that his Yankees conceded the division title in 2010: “The banner’s up there.”
You care what the bitter GM of one of our rivals thinks?
Nope.

I care about how chill Joe Maddon is.

i like the thought, but does it work if he's already wearing sunglasses?
Love this

What's awesome is the Yanks record despite that DL time
Rays have been almost too healthy(in comparison to average DL stints) the last few seasons.

Every team has to suffer through losing key players for extended periods of time over the course of a season but the Rays have been healthier than most. Last year Longoria was the only “key” player out for a month but they didn’t really suffer anything worse than Davis and Neimann missing 2-3 starts. That may be lucky, could be superior training(training/medical staff) or both.

But they may be tempting fate that they can remain as healthy as they have been in recent years. And while "depth’ may be the godsend in all of this(especially with the rotation) they could quickly become a fragile team if positional injuries pile up to players they are counting on….. as it is for every team but, again, Rays have been fortunate lately, IMO.

Look at who is 1st.......

The alphabet is a wondrous thing
Friend of the site King Kaufman?
Long time friend of the site!
and he doesn't even work for ESPN!

#subscribenow

My copy has been sitting in town since 9 am on Saturday morning, guess I should have signed up for the non-free shipping if I didn't want them to hold it hostage for several days.
fwiw, mine just arrived today according to my wife

It is waiting for me to get home

Them refers to UPS/USPS/FedEx not BP or Amazon both of whom I've been very pleased with so far.

Got this and the Fielding Bible 3, each for around half off and didn’t have to pay for shipping. Can’t really beat that

I've been abusing the hell out of my Prime trial membership

Of course, that $179 speeding ticket today is ending all of that fun. Kansas sucks

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