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The Rays Tank: The Attack Of The Saber

ST PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 04:  Matt Moore #55 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers in Game Four of the American League Division Series at Tropicana Field on October 4, 2011 in St Petersburg, Florida.  (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Mike Ehrmann - Getty Images

8 months ago: ST PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 04: Matt Moore #55 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers in Game Four of the American League Division Series at Tropicana Field on October 4, 2011 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

We may be in a dead time of the year for baseball news, but that certainly doesn't mean there's a dearth of cool articles to read. In fact, there were a number of articles yesterday that featured some interesting -- and new! -- sabermetric research. If you're into such things, don't waste a moment and check out these three pieces:

  • Matt Swartz continued his series on the price of a Win, and he finished his piece with a chart of the $/WAR that teams have spent in every year going back to 1985. To me, it's fascinating to see how prices remained relatively stable through the '90s, but then started to skyrocket come the '00s. It also seems like that inflation is increasing faster and faster.
  • Jeff Zimmerman looked at how intentional walks can screw up a player's perceived walk rate and patience. In short, players that see a boost in their intentional walk rate also typically receive a bump in their unintentional walk rate as pitchers will be more cautious around them and give them non-intentional walks. So when you see a player that boosted his walk rate dramatically, you should first stop and see if that's because the player has truly improved their plate discipline, or in large part because pitchers are being more cautious with them.
  • Bill Petti has done some recent research on park factors affect a team's chance of winning, and he followed that work up by looking at how park factors and ERA estimators relate. Are certain ERA estimators more effective in hitter- or pitcher-friendly parks? Do ERA estimators that include batted ball profiles gain importance depending on the park? It's some interesting stuff, and will hopefully lead to even more research down the line.

And now, on to other baseball articles. If research bores you, there are still plenty of fun reads this morning:

0 recs  |  88 comments

Comments

20 year tv deal?

Why? The market will look vastly different in 20 years.

Teams that signed deals just a couple of years ago are already looking like they settled for too little

+1

I can’t believe no one else is saying this.

Could you imagine if the Rays had done a 20 yr deal in 2007 for what they signed to?

It would be all kinds of AJ Burnett bad

More like Vernon Wells bad
8-10 years sounds best

and the Rays should fight hard to get an opt-out clause in the contract. Maybe a 10 year deal with an opt out after 7. Financial security along with making sure they are getting the maximum revenue they can to compete.

Rays will not be "behind the times" but ahead of them

I couldn’t agree more how the deals keep getting better and better at a time when other teams have locked themselves into long-term deals at what seems to be now undermarket prices. Rays will get a better deal by 2016 than teams got in the last five years. Hopefully anyways.

I wonder how the Marlins situation affects this. I would think that the better the Marlins do the more it drives up the price for both, but

you look at the Texas deal where they are in direct competition with Houston and the Angels being in direct competition with the Dodgers. Both of the competitors look to be awful for the next few years which means an RSN would try harder to lock up the better looking team as it should lead to more advertising and so on.

If the Rays continue to play well into 2016 and the Marlins tank then perhaps Fox Sports or some upstart end up in a bidding war wanting to make sure they get the Rays while the loser gets the right to pay bargain basement for the Marlins as their is less competition for the best sponsors at that point.

Well you don't get the same deal for less years, it's probably something liek 600/20 (30M Per), 400/15 (27M Per), 230/10 (23M Per)

These are certainly hyperbole, but work as an example that the TV stations want to be locked in and will pay more for the longer contract. The trick is to find the break even.

Agreed

it’s not as black and white as it seems, but I still think a deal could look bad in 5-10 years let alone 20

yup. look at the situation the braves are in as a results of theirs.
Program note for those living in the Bay area or listening on line

620 WDAE will broadcast an hour long town hall meeting with Joe Maddon at 10 AM this morning with no commercials. I think callers will be accepted

Big thanks to you sir, and bigger thanks to I Heart Radio
I have a 10:30 meeting...FML

this is a fantastic idea…thx for sharing

Love that mention that DanJo came up because there wasn't a runner on 2nd or 3rd, that they would rather go with the high contact Sam Fuld in that scenario
Crash course to the layman in what they do regarding platooning

“Jeff Keppinger crushes lefties, you’ll see him face lefties all year” Paraphrased

He's killing this thing

Would love to have a list of audio clips from this to reference throughout the season when the whining begins from the well-warmed up Rays fans

Quoting Camus, we're so fucking spoiled
"Wearing a $3000 suit on a charter plane - who are you trying to impress??"
You left out the best part...

“Who you trying to impress? The shortstop?”

Love that discipline comes from behind closed doors, no reason to embarrass a guy
Luke Scott can play in the outfield and infield, more flexibility
"met my math Waterloo"

…so good.

1st crowd question was about sabermetrics

Was definitely not expecting that

Well you think every fan is a moran.
Nah - just you two guys
He makes Friedman sound really statistical.
Put your feelings in your back pocket, pussy
B.J. Upton is one of the nicest people I've ever met in baseball, but he's black playing in an area with ignorant rednecks so you can understand where there's frustration
excellent translation
I read good between lines
"BJ is one of my favorites of all time"
"The blue seats love us."
This chat is a lot like his pre-game chats in the dugout....but those only last 15 minutes
Love it that so many guys are already training and lifting and that Longo lost some of his baby fat

Beej adding more muscle might not help his contact, but can’t hurt what he does get to

lol did he really say that Longo lost some baby fat?
Nah, just that he's trimmed up a bit, former DRB poster Suttree had plenty of fat jokes for the lad last year
tell that fucker to stop pouting about his life and get back in here
The Drifters is an amazing book, still want to get to Torremolinos sometime
Haha, I've been around a lot of baseball players that do

Love the subtle dig at how stupid football players are

Baseball players are easily more stupid.

I love analyzing baseball and all, but baseball players can be so annoying.

I don't think 3 years of basketweaving makes you any smarter, football players and fans are far and away stupider
Football fans for sure.

Football players are stupid compared to baseball players in another way. Baseball players are often delusional.

That was awesome, thanks 620, Joe, the hosts, the questions, really exciting stuff

Not sure there’s another manager that can build a bubble of trust as well as this guy

Hoping someone can post a recap
I'd really like to see one also
Absolutely NO mention of Reid Brignac--Beautiful
He did mention that Rodriguez and Joyce are getting close to becoming everyday players.
With Keppinger getting all lefties as well makes you wonder how that's going to work
I'm guessing the Joyce/Rodriguez thing is just managerial talk.

Last spring Maddon hinted that Brignac would play daily. That did not happen, even right out of the gate.

That seems like the easiest solution, but it would be interesting to see if they sit Pena for the tough lefties instead of Joyce
I see that happening, especially with Zobrist going to 1B and Kepp at 2B
Remember all of the talk last year about Zobrist playing 1st?

http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110120&content_id=16468488&c_id=tb

games played = 0

They could use Keppinger at 1st since Zobrist is the superior defender at 2nd and defensive value is more important there.

I'd rather Kepp be the one at 1B, like when Felipe Lopez was on the roster
Could always throw Scott at first in those situations.

Although ideally, you’d rather not zap Zobrist’s ability to shift around, nor have Keppinger as DH—I guess you could always sub Pena in later through that route though.

Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing that happen at times.

I’m guessing their expected performance versus lefties favors Pena, but there’s potential future value to be gained in having Joyce face a few he usually wouldn’t.

I don't see Zobrist at 1B, beside it being a waste of his talents he's looked awful there in limited showing

He looked really uncomfortable receiving pick off throws.

What's so beautiful about this discussion, it's being done with out the name Brignac mentioned even once

I think we’re all on the same page the 25th man will be Guyer or another bat

It's more likely to be Elliot Johnson than Guyer and I don't want to speculate on another bat as it's just wasted thoughts until it happens

I hope Briggy gets his swing fixed at Durham and can come contribute with the team at some point. The thought of EJ on the roster for more than a month or two is repulsive unless he can actually get some bunts down or make more contact.

NO NO NO

You’re not seeing the big picture

When have the Rays given a plus defensive player away for nothing?

Guyer won’t be up for a part time or even the short side of a platoon role.

why would brignac be mentioned when we are talking about who bats against left handed pitchers?

you are such a troll.

I don't think it's going to be Guyer.

If they send him down it’s a sign they think he’ll be an everyday player in the future, and that they don’t want to waste service time bullets for a start or two a week.

You had to go and ruin it.

Once Brignac has been mentioned, he won’t go back in the box.

You've mentioned him twice
I can't find the quote or audio, but he's also spoken about how much he did not like playing 1b
this makes absolutely no sense.

why would you move our best defensive 2b off the position for our worst?

This.

Move Kepp to 1B.

I'd be fine with at least seeing what he can do over there

If range is the beef for why he would make a poor SS and a mediocre 2B, but his hands and arm are fine then he might be a strong fit on a part time basis.

The Rays media deal is so bad

I can’t help but wonder if MLB might fight (and chip in significant money) to get the current deal broken. As much as we talk about lack of attendance, our media contract is going to be a huge burden for us for several years even if we sell out the Trop every night.

As an addendum though

I have to say that a 20 year TV deal is incredibly short sighted and flat out stupid. That deal is going to look horrible in 10 years, let alone 20.

just be glad we dont have the braves awful 30 year deal.
I highly doubt MLB will intervene.
No chance in hell

Newscorp owns damn near all of the regional sports networks, and is MLB’s national tv partner. Messing with sunsports is messing with the power of fox as a whole.

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