
Mike Ehrmann - Getty Images
8 months ago:
ST PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 04: Matt Moore #55 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers in Game Four of the American League Division Series at Tropicana Field on October 4, 2011 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
We may be in a dead time of the year for baseball news, but that certainly doesn't mean there's a dearth of cool articles to read. In fact, there were a number of articles yesterday that featured some interesting -- and new! -- sabermetric research. If you're into such things, don't waste a moment and check out these three pieces:
- Matt Swartz continued his series on the price of a Win, and he finished his piece with a chart of the $/WAR that teams have spent in every year going back to 1985. To me, it's fascinating to see how prices remained relatively stable through the '90s, but then started to skyrocket come the '00s. It also seems like that inflation is increasing faster and faster.
- Jeff Zimmerman looked at how intentional walks can screw up a player's perceived walk rate and patience. In short, players that see a boost in their intentional walk rate also typically receive a bump in their unintentional walk rate as pitchers will be more cautious around them and give them non-intentional walks. So when you see a player that boosted his walk rate dramatically, you should first stop and see if that's because the player has truly improved their plate discipline, or in large part because pitchers are being more cautious with them.
- Bill Petti has done some recent research on park factors affect a team's chance of winning, and he followed that work up by looking at how park factors and ERA estimators relate. Are certain ERA estimators more effective in hitter- or pitcher-friendly parks? Do ERA estimators that include batted ball profiles gain importance depending on the park? It's some interesting stuff, and will hopefully lead to even more research down the line.
And now, on to other baseball articles. If research bores you, there are still plenty of fun reads this morning:
- Jeremy Hellickson and James Shields have two of the best changeups in baseball? Color me shocked!
- Being a product of the '90s, I learned a bunch from this Baseball Nation article on the history of artificial turf. I never knew why AstroTurf was invented, but the story with the Astros makes a bunch of sense.
- The Padres are the most recent team to score a new TV deal, and they're set to rake in upwards of $30 million each year for the next 20 seasons. By the time the Rays are able to renegotiate their current deal, they're going to be well behind the times at this rate.
- It got announced yesterday that O's starter Zach Britton is still dealing with a shoulder injury that has lingered from the end of last season. While it's bad news -- and speaks poorly on the O's management of their young pitchers -- it's worth pointing out that their new GM has made some strides this year to fix that problem in the organization. Who knows if it'll pay off, but they're at least moving in the right direction.
- Carson Cistulli was gracious enough to have me on FanGraphs Audio yesterday, where I hopefully didn't make too big a fool of myself. We talked about a number of Rays-related topics, including Brandon Guyer, Matt Moore, Scott Kazmir, and (of course) Casey Fossum.
20 year tv deal?
Why? The market will look vastly different in 20 years.
Teams that signed deals just a couple of years ago are already looking like they settled for too little
Sveet - February 16, 2012
+1
I can’t believe no one else is saying this.
mr. maniac - February 16, 2012
Could you imagine if the Rays had done a 20 yr deal in 2007 for what they signed to?
It would be all kinds of AJ Burnett bad
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
More like Vernon Wells bad
DeadeyeRR - February 16, 2012
8-10 years sounds best
and the Rays should fight hard to get an opt-out clause in the contract. Maybe a 10 year deal with an opt out after 7. Financial security along with making sure they are getting the maximum revenue they can to compete.
raysfaninminnesota - February 16, 2012
Rays will not be "behind the times" but ahead of them
I couldn’t agree more how the deals keep getting better and better at a time when other teams have locked themselves into long-term deals at what seems to be now undermarket prices. Rays will get a better deal by 2016 than teams got in the last five years. Hopefully anyways.
raysfaninminnesota - February 16, 2012
I wonder how the Marlins situation affects this. I would think that the better the Marlins do the more it drives up the price for both, but
you look at the Texas deal where they are in direct competition with Houston and the Angels being in direct competition with the Dodgers. Both of the competitors look to be awful for the next few years which means an RSN would try harder to lock up the better looking team as it should lead to more advertising and so on.
If the Rays continue to play well into 2016 and the Marlins tank then perhaps Fox Sports or some upstart end up in a bidding war wanting to make sure they get the Rays while the loser gets the right to pay bargain basement for the Marlins as their is less competition for the best sponsors at that point.
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
Well you don't get the same deal for less years, it's probably something liek 600/20 (30M Per), 400/15 (27M Per), 230/10 (23M Per)
These are certainly hyperbole, but work as an example that the TV stations want to be locked in and will pay more for the longer contract. The trick is to find the break even.
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
Agreed
it’s not as black and white as it seems, but I still think a deal could look bad in 5-10 years let alone 20
Sveet - February 16, 2012
yup. look at the situation the braves are in as a results of theirs.
rglass44 - February 16, 2012
Program note for those living in the Bay area or listening on line
620 WDAE will broadcast an hour long town hall meeting with Joe Maddon at 10 AM this morning with no commercials. I think callers will be accepted
sternfan1 - February 16, 2012
Big thanks to you sir, and bigger thanks to I Heart Radio
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
I have a 10:30 meeting...FML
this is a fantastic idea…thx for sharing
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
Thanks.
DeadeyeRR - February 16, 2012
Love that mention that DanJo came up because there wasn't a runner on 2nd or 3rd, that they would rather go with the high contact Sam Fuld in that scenario
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
Crash course to the layman in what they do regarding platooning
“Jeff Keppinger crushes lefties, you’ll see him face lefties all year” Paraphrased
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
He's killing this thing
Would love to have a list of audio clips from this to reference throughout the season when the whining begins from the well-warmed up Rays fans
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
Quoting Camus, we're so fucking spoiled
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
"Wearing a $3000 suit on a charter plane - who are you trying to impress??"
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
You left out the best part...
“Who you trying to impress? The shortstop?”
Ryan Gilliss - February 16, 2012
Love that discipline comes from behind closed doors, no reason to embarrass a guy
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
Luke Scott can play in the outfield and infield, more flexibility
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
"met my math Waterloo"
…so good.
Passionate Apathy - February 16, 2012
1st crowd question was about sabermetrics
Was definitely not expecting that
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
Well you think every fan is a moran.
SRQman - February 16, 2012
this
sternfan1 - February 16, 2012
Nah - just you two guys
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
Also, get a brain
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
He makes Friedman sound really statistical.
mr. maniac - February 16, 2012
Put your feelings in your back pocket, pussy
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
B.J. Upton is one of the nicest people I've ever met in baseball, but he's black playing in an area with ignorant rednecks so you can understand where there's frustration
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
excellent translation
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
I read good between lines
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
"BJ is one of my favorites of all time"
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
"The blue seats love us."
Passionate Apathy - February 16, 2012
This chat is a lot like his pre-game chats in the dugout....but those only last 15 minutes
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
Love it that so many guys are already training and lifting and that Longo lost some of his baby fat
Beej adding more muscle might not help his contact, but can’t hurt what he does get to
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
lol did he really say that Longo lost some baby fat?
benderbrodriguez - February 16, 2012
Nah, just that he's trimmed up a bit, former DRB poster Suttree had plenty of fat jokes for the lad last year
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
tell that fucker to stop pouting about his life and get back in here
pudieron89 - February 16, 2012
Beyond my reach
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
The Drifters is an amazing book, still want to get to Torremolinos sometime
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
Haha, I've been around a lot of baseball players that do
Love the subtle dig at how stupid football players are
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
Baseball players are easily more stupid.
I love analyzing baseball and all, but baseball players can be so annoying.
mr. maniac - February 16, 2012
I don't think 3 years of basketweaving makes you any smarter, football players and fans are far and away stupider
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
Football fans for sure.
Football players are stupid compared to baseball players in another way. Baseball players are often delusional.
mr. maniac - February 16, 2012
That was awesome, thanks 620, Joe, the hosts, the questions, really exciting stuff
Not sure there’s another manager that can build a bubble of trust as well as this guy
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
Hoping someone can post a recap
FreeZorilla - February 16, 2012
Maybe Collette could post "How I cut time out of my incredibly busy talented important life to listen to Joe Maddon's Town Hall"
I keed, I keed
FreeZorilla - February 16, 2012
Ha
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
rec'd
now, back to my humblebragging
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
audio archives
1st half – http://www.620wdae.com/cc-common/podcast/single_page.html?podcast=RaysAudio&selected_podcast=Town_Hall_Meeting_Pt_1__1329413285_10375.mp3
2nd half – http://www.620wdae.com/cc-common/podcast/single_page.html?podcast=RaysAudio&selected_podcast=Town_Hall_Meeting_Part_2__1329410633_20965.mp3
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
nice, thx
FreeZorilla - February 16, 2012
I'm trying out some transcription software to see if I can automate audio to text
I just don’t know how well it will understand Ron and Ian :)
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
Then upload that to xtranormal with Joe as a mad scientest and the hosts as clowns, ala
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3zuwF15Ios&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PL21E32209387E4E82
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
yea, it's not working well...nevermind
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
I'd really like to see one also
sc_monsta1015 - February 16, 2012
Absolutely NO mention of Reid Brignac--Beautiful
sternfan1 - February 16, 2012
He did mention that Rodriguez and Joyce are getting close to becoming everyday players.
R.J. Anderson - February 16, 2012
With Keppinger getting all lefties as well makes you wonder how that's going to work
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
I'm guessing the Joyce/Rodriguez thing is just managerial talk.
Last spring Maddon hinted that Brignac would play daily. That did not happen, even right out of the gate.
R.J. Anderson - February 16, 2012
That seems like the easiest solution, but it would be interesting to see if they sit Pena for the tough lefties instead of Joyce
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
I see that happening, especially with Zobrist going to 1B and Kepp at 2B
sternfan1 - February 16, 2012
Remember all of the talk last year about Zobrist playing 1st?
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110120&content_id=16468488&c_id=tb
games played = 0
They could use Keppinger at 1st since Zobrist is the superior defender at 2nd and defensive value is more important there.
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
I'd rather Kepp be the one at 1B, like when Felipe Lopez was on the roster
Ben Tumbling - February 16, 2012
Could always throw Scott at first in those situations.
Although ideally, you’d rather not zap Zobrist’s ability to shift around, nor have Keppinger as DH—I guess you could always sub Pena in later through that route though.
R.J. Anderson - February 16, 2012
Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing that happen at times.
I’m guessing their expected performance versus lefties favors Pena, but there’s potential future value to be gained in having Joyce face a few he usually wouldn’t.
R.J. Anderson - February 16, 2012
I don't see Zobrist at 1B, beside it being a waste of his talents he's looked awful there in limited showing
He looked really uncomfortable receiving pick off throws.
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
What's so beautiful about this discussion, it's being done with out the name Brignac mentioned even once
I think we’re all on the same page the 25th man will be Guyer or another bat
sternfan1 - February 16, 2012
It's more likely to be Elliot Johnson than Guyer and I don't want to speculate on another bat as it's just wasted thoughts until it happens
I hope Briggy gets his swing fixed at Durham and can come contribute with the team at some point. The thought of EJ on the roster for more than a month or two is repulsive unless he can actually get some bunts down or make more contact.
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
NO NO NO
You’re not seeing the big picture
sternfan1 - February 16, 2012
When have the Rays given a plus defensive player away for nothing?
Guyer won’t be up for a part time or even the short side of a platoon role.
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
why would brignac be mentioned when we are talking about who bats against left handed pitchers?
you are such a troll.
rglass44 - February 16, 2012
I don't think it's going to be Guyer.
If they send him down it’s a sign they think he’ll be an everyday player in the future, and that they don’t want to waste service time bullets for a start or two a week.
R.J. Anderson - February 16, 2012
You had to go and ruin it.
Once Brignac has been mentioned, he won’t go back in the box.
Whelk - February 16, 2012
You've mentioned him twice
GomesSweetGomes - February 16, 2012
I can't find the quote or audio, but he's also spoken about how much he did not like playing 1b
Jason Collette - February 16, 2012
this makes absolutely no sense.
why would you move our best defensive 2b off the position for our worst?
rglass44 - February 16, 2012
This.
Move Kepp to 1B.
mr. maniac - February 16, 2012
I'd be fine with at least seeing what he can do over there
If range is the beef for why he would make a poor SS and a mediocre 2B, but his hands and arm are fine then he might be a strong fit on a part time basis.
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
That was my takeaway from an hourl ong discussion too
Ryan Gilliss - February 16, 2012
"hourl ong"?
Ryan Gilliss - February 16, 2012
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrVgOuLRggI&feature=fvst
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
The Rays media deal is so bad
I can’t help but wonder if MLB might fight (and chip in significant money) to get the current deal broken. As much as we talk about lack of attendance, our media contract is going to be a huge burden for us for several years even if we sell out the Trop every night.
djp68 - February 16, 2012
As an addendum though
I have to say that a 20 year TV deal is incredibly short sighted and flat out stupid. That deal is going to look horrible in 10 years, let alone 20.
djp68 - February 16, 2012
just be glad we dont have the braves awful 30 year deal.
rglass44 - February 17, 2012
I highly doubt MLB will intervene.
mr. maniac - February 16, 2012
No chance in hell
Newscorp owns damn near all of the regional sports networks, and is MLB’s national tv partner. Messing with sunsports is messing with the power of fox as a whole.
GomesSweetGomes - February 16, 2012
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