Back on July 29th, JC Mitchell wrote an article titled Damon's Quest for 3000 Has Hurt. Mitchell examined Damon's plate discipline in 2011 and compared it to his career and surmised that Damon was altering his approach at tthe plate in his quest to reach 3000 hits.
In his article Mitchell wrote:
Damon enters today with 2677 hits and could reasonably reach 3000 hits with 2-3 more mediocre seasons. Damon's approach at the plate makes one believe he could reach 3000 hits by this time next year. Lately, the man swings at anything short of a pitch out. He has 5 walks since June 21st, a span of 110 plate appearances, or the equivalent of how often Corey Patterson walks. His O-Swing% (percentage of swings out of the strike zone) is a career high at 31.8%. His career O-Swing% coming into this season was below 21%.
Today Joel Sherman of the New York Posts writes an article titled Damon's Quest for 3,000 hits keeping Yankees at bay. Here are some of the quotes:
Damon has done nothing in recent years to hide his obsession with reaching 3,000 hits, in part because he believes it will elevate his Hall of Fame chances. He is 277 hits shy of the milestone.
More from Sherman After the Jump
However, executives from three teams that had interest in Damon expressed concerns a fixation with 3,000 has diminished an attribute that greatly contributed to the perception of Damon as a winning player: patient, tough at-bats
And Sherman even presents some statistical evidence to back up the claim:
Damon, historically a disciplined hitter, swung at 31.3 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. That was, by far, his worst mark for the 10 years Fangraphs has tracked the stat and marked the third straight year he incurred a significant increase. There is a belief he is trying to raise his hit totals to draw closer to 3,000 and it is coming at the expense of those tough, patient at-bats.
Via Text message Damon responded:
"I think the OBP (on-base percentage) went down because in 2011 I felt like there were tough calls on me so I was a little more aggressive. I liked the results with production better because of it."
So, the question becomes: Do you believe Johnny Damon has altered his approach at the plate in order to enhance his chances at reaching the 3000 hit plateau? And, do you believe that this is truly a concern for other teams when evaluating Johnny Damon for 2012?
1 recs | 69 comments
I am of the opinion
that Damon had a million other reasons for swinging outside of the zone last year, the last of which is his quest for 3000 hits.
MrNegative1 - February 15, 2012
This
I voted yes, but b/c I think it is a deliberate act. But it certainly plays to motivation.
nomoredevil - February 15, 2012
^not b/c
I am fail at typing today
nomoredevil - February 15, 2012
Could you give us a couple, because I know what I saw and the numbers back it up
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
I think
I think SF1 hit on how I feel.
Numbers back up that he was more aggressive at the plate in 2011. Yes.
Numbers don’t back up the reason behind the increased aggressiveness in quest to reach 3000 hits.
That is a stretch for me.
MrNegative1 - February 15, 2012
It's a stretch that a phony is doing everything he can to latch on to the one sure way that will get him in the HoF?
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
not at all
I don’t believe it but I’m not going to be so stubborn that I totally disregard the argument.
MrNegative1 - February 15, 2012
He probably would still not be in the Hall, 3k or not
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
I agree, but he's the kind of guy that will do whatever it takes for a few dollars more
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
i bet an autograpghed baseball
that says “Johnny Damon 3000 Hit Club” sells for more money. Guarantee this guy is chasing 3000 hits hard and changed his approach. when its all said and done I dont really blame him.
James Westfall - February 15, 2012
I don't think you can blame him
But there’s no question I think less of him for it
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
Who isn't saying this?
Sandy Kazmir - February 16, 2012
The other reason would be a concern as well and thats a decline in bat speed/pitch recognition
FreeZorilla - February 15, 2012
BABIP than a career .250 hitter
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Can you please respond in English so that I can counter whatever you're pulling out of your bum
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
Sherman could have also noted that Damon swung early more often than usual:
First-pitch swinging rate:
2008: 11%
2009: 12%
2010: 19%
2011: 21%
Granted, it’s not a huge increase from the year before, but he’s definitely been more aggressive lately than he was before. The only other time he topped 20 percent came back in 2005—his walk year in Boston.
R.J. Anderson - February 15, 2012
That should be "topped 20 percent since leaving Kansas City".
R.J. Anderson - February 15, 2012
the prodigal son returns
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Not sure I get his response, either.
Isn’t knowing that they won’t run hot or cold over some bad luck or a slump part of the appeal of veteran hitters? He’s been around long enough. He knows how this stuff goes, and it doesn’t appear he ever adjusted to these lengths before.
Someone will have to explain to me what this means: I liked the results with production better because of it.
R.J. Anderson - February 15, 2012
I think he's saying that due to umpire error he became more aggressive which led to him having better production so you can expect this change to stick around in the future.
Though I speak English, not whatever that is.
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
Wow
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
Now that it appears the career of Johnny Damon as a Ray is over here's what i think happened in 2011
I think Damon viewed himself as a Ray as more of an impact bat rather than a piece of the offense. Afterall the team had lost Crawford, and Pena from the year before, Ramirez ‘retired’ after several games and in the first series they lost Longoria for a month. Just guessing he felt he needed to force the action so to speak and swung early and often
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Impact batters generally can hit the ball further than 115 feet oppo and more than 340 on a dead yoke pull
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
How many DHs had more than his 16 HR?
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Not sure how that matters, but fangraphs have 4 not counting Konerko in 2011
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
Only one less XBH than the legend of MOM
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Damon had 125 more plate appearances, and 120 more at-bats.
That he finished with fewer with one extra-base hit than Joyce doesn’t speak that well to his power.
R.J. Anderson - February 15, 2012
Kazmir doesn't know that, he's too busy working on his next graph
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Attempting to, but it's difficult porting the data
I find it intriguing that MLB average HR distance was 397 ft and Damon’s average was 377. Certainly worth looking into
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
Hard to believe he only took 5 walks in those extra PAs
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
The kicker: Damon finished with two more walks than Joyce.
R.J. Anderson - February 15, 2012
In 20-25% more PA, bananas, I wonder how good he could have been if he had decided to put team goals ahead of individual for more than the last month
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
And you can't point to those extra PA being vs LHP either as a n excuse b/c Damon had pretty wide inverse splits last year
FreeZorilla - February 15, 2012
I don't think anyone should consider it a shot at Damon to insinuate Joyce has more power than him anyway.
R.J. Anderson - February 15, 2012
According to hitttracker, he's never gone oppo
At least not since they started tracking. If you go back to prior years you will see more home runs to right-center and dead center. To me this suggests he is guessing/cheating on pitches on the inner half.
GomesSweetGomes - February 15, 2012
As a team the Rays were 9th in HR/PA by DH's.
Also in OPS
FreeZorilla - February 15, 2012
While it may appear to some that i'm advocating or did advocate a return
of Damon and Kotch, i am very pleased at what Friedman did at those positions this off season. We really need to improve on that 53 games scoring two runs or less and the HR ball Scott and Pena present should help
Nothing beats the three run bomb
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Well, one thing does.
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
I assume you are referring to Tebow
FreeZorilla - February 15, 2012
Jeremy Lin
Whelk - February 15, 2012
I do belive Damon wants to reach 3000 hits and has started swinging at more pitches in order to get more hits.
But, playing devil’s advocate here, from August 29th until the end of the year Damon hit .250/.384/.477 with 17 unintentional walks in only 112 plate appearances. Was this just small sample size or was this Damon “re-finding” his approach and patience?
jcmitchell - February 15, 2012
Why August 29th?
Did he have an epiphany in a hotel lobby mid road trip?
GomesSweetGomes - February 15, 2012
Baseball must be right around the corner GSG is back drinking the same kool aid
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Someone needs to fine tune their sarcasm detector
There is nothing special about 8/29, other than it was picked as a data point from which one could prove progress.
GomesSweetGomes - February 15, 2012
+1
Small Sample Sizes are bull. Selective endpoints, 10x the bull.
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
Its an interesting point
The Rays started out dreadfully and the season appeared doomed from the get-go given the record, Evan’s injury and the loss of Manny. Once the chase started maybe he stopped putting himself first to the same degree.
FreeZorilla - February 15, 2012
To anyone looking at things logically that makes the most sense
now when you need charts, graphs, O-swings and the like you can build many other scenarios
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Because logic is constructed on narrative, not data.
Whelk - February 15, 2012
Just like logic plays a big part in BABIP
Why do you suppose George Brett had a BABIP 32 points higher than Ozzie Smith for their careers? .307 to .275
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
How about John Kruk having a .341 BABIP over his career
BABIP over a short period fluctuating wildly from established norms is representative of luck, good or bad, the established norm is representative of ability to make solid contact resulting in line drives and hard hit ground balls.
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
I'm just guessing that a career .300 hitter (10 years)
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
John kruk
If compare him to Kotchman I think you will find a lot of similarities offensively
gatrmf - February 15, 2012 via mobile
Yeah, I noticed that about a week ago when I first realized how high Krukkie's BABIP was
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1930&playerid2=1007184&playerid3=&position=1B&page=2&type=full
BA,OBP, even SLG are pretty similar. Kruk walked a bit more, but Kotchman could certainly end up having a similar career going forward.
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
He hit the ball harder/better
BABIP is a skill. No one is denying this. It’s just extremely volatile in short stretches, and if a player has an abnormally low/high BABIP, it doesn’t mean that he isn’t sucking/rocking, it just means that you can’t expect it to last
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
It's possible.
I’m guessing this is one of those situations where Damon’s background—his keen knowledge of where he ranks on this leaderboard and that, and his outspokenness about wanting to be in the HOF—are hurting him as much as anything. If this were Joe Dillon, people would assume he’s just an old player declining.
R.J. Anderson - February 15, 2012
This is an extremely valid point
Still, considering how precipitous the decline in skills that generally don’t wane so quickly and that are incredibly stable..
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
This narrative ignores the fact that we were in first through much of May
And well within striking distance for the division through June. If he is able to decide to become a team player, why wasn’t he doing so then?
GomesSweetGomes - February 15, 2012
Didn't he have several game winning hits in the period you describe?
sternfan1 - February 15, 2012
Johnny Damon did not have a single game winning RBI in the month of May
Not one
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
(The only reason I phrase it this way is because I went through the games he had RBIs in in May)
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
Here is a short and fast comparison:
The Rays by month, listed in order from worst winning percentage to best:
July
May
April
June
September
August
Johnny Damon’s total walks by month, from fewest to most:
April
May
July
August
June
September
The only thing I pull from that is that when he was walking we were more likely to win baseball games. Not that he saw we had a chance and then decided to start taking pitches.
GomesSweetGomes - February 15, 2012
This is a good point, too.
Of course, it’s possible nothing changed and we’re arguing over randomness.
R.J. Anderson - February 15, 2012
In 1st 15 days in May
5/7-5/8; 5/11-5/23
Jason Collette - February 15, 2012
The real issue to me is more that he wants to be a full-time player
And be paid like one rather than trying to force 3000 hits by changing his hitting approach which is more likely a decline in skills.
Transplanted - February 15, 2012
The funny part is that Damon still performed above his career mark last season, because of the depressed run environment
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
Wow he certainly has not had anything like a HOF career
At no point in his career can you say he was in the discussion for 10 best players in the game
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
*position players
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
I think if he gets 3000 he ends up in the HOF
The caveman/idiots narrative combined with the two rings, and his general popularity will carry the day if he reaches the 3000 club. And if so, he would be in the Hall of Fame along with Schilling, while Ramirez and Ortiz will likely never make it in. Go figure.
GomesSweetGomes - February 15, 2012
Given how zealously the BBWAA guards the HOF, I think he'll be the first not to
I mean he’d be the first “okay most seasons, all-star in his best few,” to get to the mark.
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
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