Now that Yoenis Cespedes is off the market, Roy Oswalt is essentially the Last Man Standing of the off-season. I'm not entirely sure where he expects to land at this point, but the latest rumor is that he's waiting for the Rangers to clear some payroll space and sign him. Uhh, I hate to break it to you Roy, but the Rangers have a pretty full rotation as is. I'm sure Oswalt will end up latching on somewhere, but it would certainly help if he stopped being so picky.
But anyway, on to the links:
- Ever wonder which pitcher has the best fastball in the game? There's a series running at FanGraphs this week, looking at the best pitches in baseball, and Carson Cistulli kicked things off by looking at the best fastballs. The first two pitchers aren't that big a surprise, but I certainly didn't anticipate #3.
- In the wake of the Yoenis Cespedes signing, R.J. Anderson wrote about Billy Beane's recent success (or more to the point, lack thereof) and tried to untangle if he's lost a step over the years (sub. required). And over at FanGraphs Audio, Brad broke down the deal with Cistulli.
- Rob Neyer put together a piece on the history of prospects ranked at #31 in their organization by Baseball America. Do these prospects ever amount to something, or are they completely irrelevant? The answer is about what you'd expect: there are some successes, but they are quite rare.
- Over at The Rays Way, Yossi Feins put together a piece looking at why Matt Moore has the potential to be even better than David Price. It's a good piece, including some Pitch F/x data, and it drives home how special this year's rotation could be.
- USF has had a rough couple weeks. First the news about Memphis coming to the Big East, and now Senator J.D. Alexander is trying to cut their entire
school's budget state funding by 72%. I hope there's little chance the bill passes, but it's frustrating enough that this sort of proposal ever sees the light of day.
J.D. Alexander
I was always told if you can’t say something nice don’t say anything at all. I’ll stop talking.
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
Finally, a Republican politician I can get behind
Insert jokes here, boyz
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
In all seriousness
What a baggadouche
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
I'm Republican and if I have to choose between him and a Dem I will go Dem for the first time ever.
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
Welcome, comrade!
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Join the dark side Luke!
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
No politics, please. You liberal dumbocrats piss me off.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
dimplecraps*
firemangreg - February 14, 2012
Does Penicillin work for that?
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
"the history of prospects ranked #31"
sounds arbitrary and RIVETING!
pudieron89 - February 14, 2012
31 in their organization, as in they just missed BA's top 30
Not entirely arbitrary no?
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
ok i honestly didn't click the link
maybe a lesson in making more interesting titles for your articles.
pudieron89 - February 14, 2012
Matt Moore stat
I think Colette tweeted this out awhile back
In his minor league career he has struck out 700 batters and given up only 338 hits.
MrNegative1 - February 14, 2012
Roy Oswalt would make a pretty awesome $7M closer, wouldn't he?
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Or Wade Davis for about $6million less
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
Ha, Wade Davis ain't no Roy Oswalt
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Either is Roy Oswalt
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
What's the different between Wade Davis and Jason Hammell?
K%
Davis 15.2
Hamm 15.8
BB%
Davis 8.3
Hamm 7.9
HR/FB
Davis 9.3
Hamm 10.6
GB%
Davis 37.8
Hamm 45.1
Siera
Davis 4.61
Hamm 4.37
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
So we can trade Davis for Aneury Rodriguez?
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
The contracts are different, but those thinking we'd be getting much more have been proven delusional
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
I actually liked what Hammel was doing heading into last season
Everything was trending in the right direction but he regressed again. His big issue is pitching out of the stretch.
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
It would appear at first glance that his issue revolved around being able to throw strikes last year, something that he had seemed to correct the two years prior
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Trickle down effect
Batters stopped swinging at his stuff as well when he stopped throwing strikes on a consistent basis. His K% went from 18 to 12% while his walk rate went from 7 to 10%.
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
The ALE won't be gentle on him.
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
I still believe the Rays will bring in whatever RH bat doesn't get
guaranteed money, probably Maggs at this point
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
I'd like another bat, but I hope it's not Magglio, I'd rather have given Canzler a shot
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Then why protect Vogt over him? That leaves big doubts on Canzler, for me
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
Yeah, clearly the front office saw something they didn't like, maybe it's a character issue
There isn’t a lot out there, but if we don’t care about defense then why not just use Guyer? If all we’re looking for is a RH-bat that can get 5-10 PAs a week then I’d rather go with him than someone like Maggs coming off a bad season where he looked like a guess and chase hitter.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Defense
The Rays do not employ lawn ornaments
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Joe Dillon, Felipe Lopez, Dan Johnson, Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez
They’ve proven that they’ll take value especially with that last spot on the bench.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
If you imagine the spot came down to Canzler vs Helliot, you can see where defensive value comes into play
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
It wouldn't be the worst thing to roll with Elliot as that 25th man and let Briggy start in Durham where he can just focus on his bat
but I’d prefer auditioning another bat to see if we can get another Kotchman situation where a guy can kind of come out of nowhere to provide a bunch of value on the cheap.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Here's guessing the Rays will DFA him closer to the start of ST
where he’ll have less chance of a team signing him and thus they can shove him down to DUR if so desired
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
I'd like to keep him in the system as his glove is probably comparable to Brignac
If they can sneak him through waivers all the better, but I’d be willing to bite the bullet on giving him a month or two to see how much the knee affected his game last year.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Are you forgetting about Vogt?
The day he puts on a catcher’s mask in a regular season MLB game i’d consider giving up my sf1 moniker
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
Are you saying that you see him breaking camp on the 25-man roster after 131 PA in AAA?
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
NO--I'm saying Collette failed to mention the non prospect Vogt in his post above
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
They added Vogt to the 40 man on 11/18
Tough to imagine them cutting a guy they thought enough of to protect on it just 2 months ago when they didn’t have to.
Thus the reason he wasn’t included
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Nevin Ashley though...
Vin - February 14, 2012
He was already on it
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Hmmm. Wasn't he added like a month before Vogt?
Vin - February 14, 2012
Nevermind. He was added last winter. My bad.
Vin - February 14, 2012
That's lame if true. While i don't have any examples i'm sure
players have been added and subtracted based more on need, talent and upside than that excuse
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
Think it through
If they thought enough of him to not leave him exposed in mid-November, why would they then try to pass him through waivers in January outside of a major injury in winter ball?
Canzler wasn’t on the 40 man for long, but the team had said they were not interested in carrying 2 guys to cover DH and if you talk to scouting types, Canzler has no defensive value.
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
C'mon Cason, you think it through
When it came down to a decision i’m sure they went over the 40 man with a fine tooth comb, regardless of when a player was placed on the 40 man
Besides, they needed to do something with Canzler at the close of Nov orlose him then i believe
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
Canzler was added to the 40 man before September.
The protection thing was a non issue.
Vin - February 14, 2012
Silly facts
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Best was to illicit a non response.
Vin - February 14, 2012
Canzler was added before the end of the season, but he HAD to be added before this winter.
Otherwise he would’ve been a minor-league free agent. So in a sense, yes, they had to add him to protect his rights.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
To logically take that another step it shows that the front office doesn't have much interest in using a 25-man spot for a bat only, no glove player
If they were going to sign a Maggs/Vlad type they would have just kept Canzler. Lotta dead wood gonna fall in a month or two. Guys without contracts still:
Chavez, Damon, Drew, Fukudome, Vlad, Ibanez, Kendall, D. Lee, Manny, Maggs, Pudge, Varitek and more.
IF the Rays felt they needed to add a bat, I wonder how much D. Lee would be going for these days? If you’re talking 2-3M then I’d love to add him as a bench bat and have Lee/Pena/Scott for 1B/DH. He gets a chance at a second ring and the Rays get that righty that could help while not sacrificing much at 1B when you don’t want to start Pena. That leaves a bench of:
Fat Catcher
Joyce/Keppinger
D. Lee/Pena/Scott
Fuld
I could see us going to war with that and returning triumphantly.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Yep....
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
That wouldn't explain why they added Vogt to the 40-man.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
And I'm not saying Guyer is bad at defense, but the "Maggs slot" that you're talking about would be strictly a bat off the bench that never sees the field
Guyer would give us that bat, but also be able to play a pretty mean defense.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
This is where I'm at.
If the bench is Kepp-Rod/Brigs-Lobaton-Guyer I don’t think that “25th man” moniker even applies.
Vin - February 14, 2012
as we sit now the bench is
Fuld, Lobaton, Kepp and Guyer
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
I know you hate Briggy
but you really don’t think he is going to make the team?
Sveet - February 14, 2012
Nope--DUR or traded
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
That leaves no average or above average defensive SS's on the roster though.
I can’t see that happening.
Vin - February 14, 2012
Rodriguez is average or above, the point is to evaluate talent over the first month, hope that Brignac develops a swing
then make a move if one needs to be made.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Average maybe
but that basically means we have no capable backup at SS. Seems unlikely
Sveet - February 14, 2012
Name five teams that have a "capable backup at SS" whatever the f that means
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
I just know the way the Rays value defense especially up the middle and I have a hard time believing they are going to play Srod and Keppinger there all year.
Sveet - February 14, 2012
They won't have to, if someone gets hurt or can't handle the position then you still have Brignac a phone call away
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
How do we know the Rays value defense up the middle more than other teams?
They let an aging Jason Bartlett play short over Brignac back in 2010, didn’t they? They moved Rodriguez there in the middle of last year, and talked about moving Zobrist back to short.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
The Rays value market inefficiencies more/better than other teams
Because these tend to materialize in the form of defense, people misinterpret that to mean that the Rays emphasize defense. They don’t, unless it’s cheaper than equivalent production via other means (which it generally is)
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
(this comment isn't directed at you, but at everyone who says RAYS LOVE GOOD DEFENSIVE PLAYERS OVER ALL ELSE)
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
Oh, I know.
I think you hit the nail on the head. The idea that the Rays only value defense (or value it higher than offense or any other attribute) drives me crazy. Too simplistic.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Would it be fair to say
If they have two players valued equally, the one that has defensive chops is going to win out?
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Yes, but this is just because the Rays like artificially inflating the performance of their pitchers so they can sell high on them
See: Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, etc.
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
also because defense isnt rewarded in arb. or properly valued in FA.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
I think the question assumes equally evaluated/cost independent players
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
well then i think there are a number of variables that come in to play then.
roster construction, pitcher inflation, etc.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
I don't know.
And I don’t know how often that actually happens. If you have a +20 hitter, 0 fielder and a 10 hitter, 10 fielder, I think you find a way to keep both around.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
If they value two people equally, they would go with the lower cost
If equal cost, they would go with whichever one better fits the existing roster composition
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
I think defense just has more intrinsic benefits for your teammates than offense.
if you have a great offensive performance you have made yourself look good and the opposing pitcher/defense bad. if you have a great defensive performance you made your pitcher look better in a quantifiable way.
pudieron89 - February 14, 2012
Offense shows up in "Pitcher Wins"
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
i'm talking about things that matter.
pudieron89 - February 14, 2012
Making a pitcher look better quantifiably is nothing more than an illusion regardless of the stat you choose to use
Thats exactly what you want to neutralize for and why pitcher wins is a silly stat vs an xFIP which neutralizes for park and largely defense.
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
Right, you aren't likely to find too many teams using ERA alone to judge pitchers anymore.
Plus, the word is out about the Rays’ defense, so I think teams are going to be extra cautious if the pitcher doesn’t have good stuff or grade well individually.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Its nice that Garza, Jackson and Hammel have gone on to succeed elsewhere
Otherwise it might be very difficult.
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
I'd like to know how other teams look at the Trop.
I bet it’s not as extreme as, say, PETCO or Oakland. Although, Oakland’s park has never stopped teams from giving up value for their starters.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
This is probably my favorite thing that Woody has ever put together
Blew my mind how much more foul territory there is than other big parks
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Well here's a link at least
http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a16/townshend_bowie/ParkComparisonGIF.gif
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
i do wonder how weather comes in to play.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
On an email list Wyers pointed out that those charts aren't always true to form.
Let me see if I can find his example.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Here it is:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/42654229@N00/4160334875/in/photostream/
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Good point, it's more of an illustrative point that I don't think needs 100% accuracy provided they're close
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Yes.
I think we’d notice the ground more if not for the bullpens being on the field.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
I was watching some of the Rays-Sox last games from down the stretch
Couldn’t stop laughing at the game where Darnell McDonald was tracking a lazy pop fly then fell on his face over the bullpen mound.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
It's a marginal difference but I do think that, all things equal, teams still prefer players with lower ERAs
Whereas better W-L totals hold virtually zero sway
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
Then why is that the first thing Jim Bowden mentions about pitchers?
Sandy Kazmir - February 15, 2012
Is Jim Bowden part of how team's at present evaluate pitchers?
No
benderbrodriguez - February 15, 2012
Friedman has stated so multiple times
but I do agree with Bender.
I’ll believe Keppinger is the backup SS on this team when it happens and not before.
Sveet - February 14, 2012
If you had a good defensive starter then you wouldn't need a good defensive backup
but when you have someone who is probably average at best defensively and can’t hit righties and the backup would be atrocious defensively and still can’t hit righties. That just doesn’t seem like the Rays MO.
Sveet - February 14, 2012
I'd take it if it allows the team to bring in a D. Lee
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
that's the same argument you used for canzler being on the roster.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
And I'd rather have Canzler than Brignac, but that's no longer an option
If Roddy completely shits the bed then at least you’ve had time to evaluate every other player as well.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
well the fo doesn't agree.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
You don't know that yet
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
how do you figure? they obviously DO NOT prefer canzler on teh 25-man roster.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
They can still make a move over the next two months, you're not this obtuse
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
so they may prefer a different bat over brignac. they clearly dont prefer canzler, though.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
and id be fine with them bringing in a d. lee as the rh insurance option at 1b/dh, but ill believe it when i see it.
i maintain the only way briggy doesnt make the OD roster is if he’s traded.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
I'm talking about the slot, I'm not tied to one player because I care more about the name on the front than the one on the back
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
I'd take it if it allows the team to bring in a D. Lee
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
I'd take it if it allows the team to bring in a D. Lee
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
I'd take it if it allows the team to bring in a D. Lee
pudieron89 - February 14, 2012
Rays could send Briggy down, keep E, Johnson to be the utiltity/back-up defensive SS
and also send Fuld down. That would still open up a slot to add Magglio or D. Lee. That does keep line-up flexibility, add a RH power bat off the bench(lacking now) and keeps Fuld/Briggy a phone call away.
And at this point, barring a trade for a catcher, Pudge(if healthy) would still be a nice sign to at least add experience and a guy who could really help a young staff(along with Molina). Gives the Rays quality catching for the first half of the season(may be as long as I trust Molina/Pudge to be productive) and allows for a mid season move to bring in a #1 catcher.
budman3 - February 14, 2012
OK
The Braves, Twins, Tigers, o’s, angels,. That’s a quick list off the top of my head.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Jack Wilson/Tyler Pastornicky (Fart), Jamey Carrol/Nishioka (Meh), Peralta/Santiago (first one that isn't bad), Hardy/Andino (Andino isn't a good SS), Aybar/Izturis are why Roddy was moved
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
please look at how they rate and not give us some bs excuses.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
If given the option to have Jack Wilson/Carroll or Nishi/Andino or Derrek Lee
Then gimme the latter all day long
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
that wasnt the question posed.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
And the point I'm making is that it's probably not optimum to have some scrub at SS if you can use that slot for something else
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
id much rather have a scrub off the bench that cant field but may hit lefties 10 times a week.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
That's 10 high leverage, game changing opportunities. Much more important than 10 normal PAs
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
please look at how they rate and not give us some bs excuses.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
please look at how they rate and not give us some bs excuses.
pudieron89 - February 14, 2012
Pastornicky is intriguing
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
his hit tool is.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Yankees?
Jeter/The New Japanese guy
Whelk - February 14, 2012
He didn't sign.
Probably Nunez, unless they go with Hall or Nix.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Based on what?
Fangraphs and b-ref both have Rod as grading out below average.
Vin - February 14, 2012
I don't think either of them are so precise or accurate that you should be looking at the raw number
if a guy is -3<x<+3 then I consider him average, that’s the range UZR had him IIRC. I’m more worried about him continuing to be abysmal against righties than I am about the play in the field, but if it gets us another roster spot then I’m willing to punt 8-9 in the order half the games.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Fair enough.
The average/below avg defense at SS coupled with the abysmal-ness against righties is what has me worried.
Realistically, I just can’t see a better fit at SS than a Rod/Brigs platoon and I’m nervous to see what happens if Rod flops and Briggy is lost. Kepp takes over SS? Rush Beckham? Fuck that man.
Vin - February 14, 2012
How would Briggy be lost? At least let Roddy play himself off the position before going to plan b, something he hasn't done yet
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
He has an option then?
I remember there being a hoopla about it, but don’t remember the outcome.
Vin - February 14, 2012
B-Pro has him only excercising two options thus far. I wouldn't be making the argument if it meant losing him
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Gotcha.
Vin - February 14, 2012
he also got moved off ss as a minor leaguer.
and that was the scouting consensus there. the rays didnt move him back until we were getting an absolutely abysmal performance there. so you’re basically going against everything in his profile calling him “average at worst.”
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
He got moved by another organization that had depth at SS, don't try to interpret their motives years after the fact.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
read the old BA comments. he always had questions there.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Reading old BA comments is like pissing in the wind, they're right from time to time, but some of them just seem so stupid and offbase.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
ok buddy. ignore the scouting comments, ignore the defensive data, ignore the fact that he was moved by another team, ignore the fact that it took until his 3rd year in the org. to get starts at ss, and just keep spouting what you "think."
shoot from the hip, buddy.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
My eyes tell me he's fine, I'll take 50 games of visual evidence over bad defensive data, second hand information, and whatever other twist you want to bring
He makes enough plays and as I’ve said I’m more worried about his leash at the dish against righties than I am about the glove.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
if only i watched the games...
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
It's tough when you're an Orioles fan, I understand
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
MLB.TV
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
lol... not even the right dmv squad for me.
o’s are MUCH to working class. their fans disgust me with their denim shorts and unkempt hair.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Silver spoon 4 lyfe
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
sorry if i like not looking out of place in my seer sucker suit at a ballgame.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Just don't let Werth see your girl, might be over
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
So has TBex
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
and i wouldnt call him "at least average there."
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
But he could develop to that level
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
taht's my hope.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Brignac and Elliot both developed nicely with the glove within the org
SRod and Bex have shown signs of life. The team certainly puts an emphasis on the importance of defense.
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
Joyce said they put an emphasis on the all-around game.
Defense, running, and hitting—although they told him they knew he could hit. In a sense, they want everyone to have a little Zobrist to their game. And it works. Jennings, Zobrist, Joyce, Longoria, and Upton all tend to excel at each phase.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Right, I was thinking in terms of the Hak Ju interview when he compared Woody's Civil War
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
Lots of good minor details from that interview.
The Cubs not having a coach he can relate to is something that you don’t even think about.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Also, Joe Maddon's son Reid Brignac
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
Lee's got jokes.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
I think he said that they only had one coach who cared about Asian prospects
Whereas with Rays all the coaches care about everyone. But yeah, that surprised me
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
TBex also hasnt been moved off the position at all. Zero pro games at 2b or 3b in hsi career.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
So did Bartlett.
I had one of the prospect experts make that comparison when the Rays acquired Rodriguez. (Disclaimer: He hadn’t seen much of Rodriguez at short at the time.)
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
A lot of the negativity about S-Rod's D centered on body type as well.
I think he’s pretty fit now (if he ever was bulky), and the criticisms may now be unfounded. i still would definitely hesitate to say he’s “at worst average there.” that’s my concern.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
What kind of run value does he have at second base?
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
huh?
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Sorry. I'm asking: What kind of run value do you place on his second base defense?
Or what kind of value do the defensive metrics place?
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
i think he's probably in the +5ish range.
that’s where uzr pegs him. going strictly off the positional adjustments that makes him a tick below average at ss.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
What do we think are the most important tools at shortstop, and how do we grade Rodriguez in those tools would be my next two questions.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
his arm really helps the transition to short (id argue its his best defensive tool).
i do think his range is somewhat lacking at short which causes him to be a bit rushed or make mistakes that would keep him from being considered “sure-handed.” his defensive skillsets screams beckham in other words.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
which is why it really is a shame both bex and s-rod are RHHs.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
This might be worth a look using the FSR
Tango has applied different weights to the attribuites based on position,
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
Supposedly world class character with a minor league swing.
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
Also said to use a really heavy bat
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
By all accounts, Canzler is a great guy.
He’s just got the typical Quad-A slugger profile.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
If $tu thought he could get this for Vogt I'm sure he'd trade him too
pudieron89 - February 14, 2012
lmao
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
Josh Hamilton
FreeZorilla - February 14, 2012
David Price & Upton are getting really close this off-season
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X22lzaE9KeM
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Hey Sterny
http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2012/02/14/2012-prospect-breakout-candidate-josh-sale/?utm_source=Rays+Colored+Glasses&utm_medium=twitter
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
As always, let's hope they're right. I'm a fan of all Rays and prospects
but unafraid to call out their failed draft picks
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
Serious question, would you prefer they take a safer pick with less upside or are you going to decry every failure without praising the breakouts?
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
I think he prefers the ones with last names that rhyme with great nicknames
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Only Desmond Jennings has a chance thus far as being the low draft pick, high upside position
this regime has drafted.
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
Moore?
td32 - February 14, 2012
position player I'm assuming?
Otherwise, you’re overlooking Moore in the 8th rd
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
as it states, 'position'
sternfan1 - February 14, 2012
we have missionary players?
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
And he's looking like he could be a perennial all star
Had to sift through a lot of Roysters, Reids, and Kangs to find him, but any one of those guys could be in this position. You have to deal with potentially missing on 9 guys if it means that the 10th is a certified stud when it comes to picks outside the first round.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
please list the players who meet that bill drafted by other teams in this timeframe.
I wont hold my breath.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012 via Android app
To be fair, if you're dependent on hitting on lower round picks to get your impact players, then the odds are that you aren't going too far.
I am thrilled at how the international amateur signings are working out. Tons of those arms are creeping up on the lists, and that’s without talking about Suarez, Lara, and so on. Encouraging.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
None of them are in the major leagues yet/on the verge of breaking into them, so I'm still somewhat skeptical as of yet as to how good our international department is
What with how Colome and Wilking and Guevara have seemingly flamed out somewhat
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
how has colome flamed out?
wilking has had injury issues, but that happens.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Colome's value has decreased from what it used to be
“Flamed out” isn’t necessarily the best term
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
There were talent evaluators from other teams who had Colome pegged as a reliever as early as two years ago.
If he develops into a third starter or set-up/closer type, that isn’t too different from the expectations placed on him.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
I'm just going by Rays Prospects here
I pretty much defer to their authority on everything Rays prospecty
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
Not unusual for Colome's type to lose helium.
When those high-velo, plus-breaking stuff guys with wacky mechanics and control, and a lack of a third pitch are young, you dream on what they could be. Then after a few years they don’t develop into aces and you start to realize they probably never will.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Colome nor Wilking have flamed out.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Have declined in prospect ranking
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
Well, Wilking was hurt, so what do you expect.
The system has gotten better, too. Colome’s probably the third or fourth best RHSP now. Before Archer/Guerrieri he was probably the second best, behind Hellickson.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
My point is, I don't think you can say our amateur signings have done well
Given that none of the guys have performed in the higher minors even
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
Point of clarification
It’s not 72% of USF’s entire budget… it’s 72% of the portion funded by the state. Which still comes to $128 million.
I made the same mistake originally and had to go back and fix it. Still an atrocity.
Jamie DeVriend - February 14, 2012 via mobile
About time these colleges had to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and get off the government teat
The market is flooded with poorly educated candidates that have degrees from paper mills like USF while the trades continue to go under optimum employment because it’s less glamorous and you have to work hard.
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
I don't mean to get into politics, but large public colleges are exactly the type of organization that should have access to the government teat
Trade schools are great, too, but one of the basic pillars of democracy is an educated voting public. And that doesn’t mean a public that’s capable of making a living; it means a liberal arts education. I have some problem with the government pouring money into small, exclusive schools. I have no problem whatsoever with the giant, inclusive “paper mills.” Maybe some students get little out of it, but that’s on them for not taking advantage of the perfectly awesome professors at state schools. The goal is equality of opportunity, not equality of outcome.
If the degree is worthless, the market will sort that out, and maybe then they’ll go to a trade school.
Whelk - February 14, 2012
And by this, I clearly do mean to get into politics, but it's Steve's fault.
Whelk - February 14, 2012
I take full blame.
And I agree, completely.
Steve Slowinski - February 14, 2012
Sounds like socialism to me
Sveet - February 14, 2012
Bismark
Noted socialist.
Whelk - February 14, 2012
Whoops, thanks for the clarification Jamie.
I’ll edit it. That’s still ridiculous, though….I’ve got to imagine losing that much money would be rather disastrous for USF as a whole.
Steve Slowinski - February 14, 2012
Caption time
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
/gets 20 racist responses
Sveet - February 14, 2012
You say?
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
/gets 0 responses
Sveet - February 14, 2012
If baseball teams were beer
Nattie Ice is a f’n insult
Source: tauntr.com via Bob on Pinterest
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Nah, I have to agree.
It’s the strongest APV for the price I can think of. The bang for the buck thing works here. I like it.
Vin - February 14, 2012
I think Yuengling is a better comp
Bud Ice was my HS beer of choice
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
DRB: Encouraging Underage Drinking Since 1969
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Gennessee or get out.
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
It's Genesee, Genny Light ain't half bad when it's cold and cheap as dirt up here
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
Too lazy to look up real spelling.
I had my first when I was 12 when I lived in PA. fun times.
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
BAD ASS ALERT
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Already called CPS on his parents. Don't worry.
Vin - February 14, 2012
I think it was another 10 years before I had another.
Real bad ass.
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
took you a while to get to college then.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
took you a while to get to college then.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
took you a while to get to college then.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Wrong.
It took me a long time to get THROUGH college
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
took you a while to get to college then.
MagicMark - February 14, 2012
took you a while to get to college then.
SRQman - February 14, 2012
My college beer of choice:
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
I remember trying it - couldn't touch it
College beer of choice
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
It can be a bit bitter.
I really like this but it always gives me a headache
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
Das Boot!
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
Icehouse is the bomb, but I can't drink ice beers anymore without getting a splitting headache the next day
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
try drinking less than 20 of them in a sitting
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
That would be a problem for him
DeadeyeRR - February 14, 2012
Notice how the Rays have the only positive caption though.
And Yuengling isn’t cheap enough to fit. Also isn’t as strong as Natty Ice.
Bud Ice would work I guess.
Vin - February 14, 2012
Should be thankful it wasn't Miller Lite
Great taste (team), less filling (attendance)
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
If we're getting serious about this, it's got to be Yuengling.
1. Great bang for the buck. It’s cheap and still quality.
2. It flies under the radar. It’s the largest American beer company, yet do you ever hear anything about it? It’s always Bud or Miller or other large-market crap. Totally underrated and under-served.
Steve Slowinski - February 14, 2012
too many people patronize it for it to be Rays beer.
pudieron89 - February 14, 2012
Hrm...fair.
Steve Slowinski - February 14, 2012
id argue were more pbr than yuengling.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
If we want to stickin PA, Lionshead.
Cheaper than Natty, better than every other crappy light pilsner.
Whelk - February 14, 2012
Could they at least make it Natty light?
Sveet - February 14, 2012
no? that undermines the premise. natty light is cheap, and does not get the job done.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Someone gets it!
Vin - February 14, 2012
You're missing the point.
Natty ice is 5.9% ABV and cheap as hell.
Vin - February 14, 2012
The Rays taste like shit
I get it
Sveet - February 14, 2012
natty ice tastes no worse than natty light.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Ehhhh. When it comes to dirt cheap beers, always take the Ice over the Light.
Vin - February 14, 2012
I'm a Natty light man through and through
Sveet - February 14, 2012
That's one refined pallet you have there.
Vin - February 14, 2012
yummmmm
founder’s breakfast stout
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
This author certainly won the bet that he couldn't use the word jackasses 15 times in an article
Sandy Kazmir - February 14, 2012
how are the O's not Natty Bo?
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
from preseason draft content it sounds like Kenny Diekroeger could end up falling out of the first round.
i wonder if the rays go back to that well again.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Did re-draft Carpenter, so not crazy to think they might tread on old ground.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
reports seem to be that his athleticism hasnt recovered after the injury and as he's gotten bigger.
seems like people question his bat as well as his ability to stick at short. we’ll see obviously as a big year will vault him back in to the top 10 (talks of him being 1-1 after his frosh season), and i wonder if they’d still see what they liked with a bad season.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
I saw Callis--I believe?--say he's a future third baseman.
I’m guessing that’s going to be a debated issue though.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Everything I've seen indicates his athletecism is still outstanding
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
yeah. a lot of folks think 2b it seems.
could be like a DD if he hits, though. it’ll be interesting to see what we do in the draft this year with so few picks, and the new rules.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
I haven't seen him play, but I assume his arm is good and that moving him to second wastes that.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Isn't that the kid from Rookie of the Year?
Jason Collette - February 14, 2012
He probably won't make it to the 2nd round what with all the supp picks (of which the Rays have none, barring lottery success)
And the way things are looking now, he won’t be highly regarded enough to use our first round pick on. It would’ve been a lot easier if we’d just signed him the first time around
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
I haven't been taking part in the community prospect voting
But I am surprised at how Garvin slipped. I think he’s got a good chance of being a back-end starter, and he isn’t as risky as some of the other guys who’ve gotten votes.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
i think a lot of that was due to 2 things:
injury/bonus questions
how to sort out all the 2011 picks
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
What are your thoughts on this quote from Kevin Towers:
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
somewhat surprising.
he’s a guy taht i dont have a ton of faith in his ability to develop a system, though. look at san diego at the end of his tenure versus now.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
To be fair, this was from 2003, so he may have changed philosophies.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
This kind of reminded me of someone, too:
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
hate that damn leg kick
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Players to appear in MLB from Padres' drafts (rounds 1-10) 2002-2007:
2002
Khalil Greene
2003
Tim Stauffer
Colt Morton
Dirk Hayhurst
2004
Sean Kazmar
2005
Cesar Carrillos
Cesar Ramos
Chase Headley
Nick Hundley
Josh Greer
Mike Baxter
Wil Venable
2006
Matt Antonelli
Chad Hoffman
Wade LeBlanc
Cedric Hunter
David Freese
2007
Cory Luebke
Eric Sogard
Corey Kluber
Lance Zawadski
A ton of college players. A ton of crap. Zero All-Stars, and maybe 2-3 regulars. Terrible track record.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
I think the AS argument was there for Headley last year.
He doesn’t hit for power, though, and people don’t adjust for his ballpark. Hundley isn’t bad. Lots of fringe useful types there, particularly the pitchers.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
looking at how many college guys he drafted that didnt make the bigs let alone contribute as regulars i really think it undermines his position on "probability."
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
I don't know what rounds some of those guys were taken in.
I’m not sure I can ding him because his version of Reid Fronk didn’t work out.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
I looked at every pick for rounds 1-10 in each draft. Listed everyone with pro xperience.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
The Marlins are the perfect foil. Also low on the revenue curve, they tageted upside in HS guys:
2002
Hermida
Robert Andino
Josh Johnson
Scott Olsen
Eric Reed
2003
Logan Kensing
Jai Miller
2004
Taylor Tankersly
Jason Vargas
Brad Davis
2005
Chris Volstad
Aaron Thompson
Ryan Tucker
Sean West
Brett Hayes
Gaby Sanchz
Chris Leroux
Aaron bates
2006
Brett Sinkbiel
Chris Coghlan
Scott Cousins
Chris Hatcher
John Raynor
Graham Taylor
2007
Matt Dominguez
Mike Stanton
Bryan Peterson
Steve Cishek
2 stars, a handful of regulars, and some also-rans. This group is way better.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Fair point.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
I think a mix makes a lot of sense.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
BPA
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
but yes. a mix of upside/probability and largely signable.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
and by signable i mean willing to go pro, not willing to sign for under slot.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Sometimes BPA is the guy most likely to reach the majors.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
agreed
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
ATL is an interesting study.
They spent years doing the upside guys under Clark and Snyder, now under DeMacio they’ve done a 180 and are focusing on college guys. Not sure if this is in part because of Schuerholz being on the board or if it’s just a way to supplement the high-ceiling international signings they’ve done.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
it absolutely has everything to do with ownership reeling in costs and schuerholtz catering to the draft board.
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Luebke is an allstar caliber reliever, for what it's worth
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
I found that interesting too.
I’m not sure how Riefenhauser is better than Garvin.
mr. maniac - February 14, 2012
I would guess people went by the stats too much there.
Riefenhauser seems pegged to be a reliever.
R.J. Anderson - February 14, 2012
Mahtook is my pick for the biggest sleeper out of our list
Although I’m not sure if it’s fair to call him a sleeper, given that he’s highly regarded, I’d put him at 3rd in the system
benderbrodriguez - February 14, 2012
David Price and Kate Upton talking "finger mechanics"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=X22lzaE9KeM
Hatfield - February 14, 2012
zachfresh pretty much nailed it.
pudieron89 - February 14, 2012
lol
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
arent you glad i introduced the bdb to her glory?
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
bcb*
rglass44 - February 14, 2012
Every day I am thankful for this, yes.
Hatfield - February 14, 2012
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