With Rizzo now off the market, I'm starting to think that the Rays odds of acquiring a young, major-league-ready hitter in a trade are slim to none. Heck, it's entirely possible that the odds were never that high to begin with, especially when you're shopping Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann during an offseason where there are numerous better starters available via trade (e.g. Mat Latos, Matt Garza, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, etc.).
That's not to say that Friedman won't still get something done; I'm just saying that I'll be pleasantly surprised if something does develop. The targets we've tossed out there in recent weeks are all exciting and fun -- Mark Trumbo, Kendrys Morales, and Lucas Duda among others -- but there are some large obstacles in acquiring almost every one of these players. As I mentioned in a thread yesterday, feel free to poke around in the Triple-A leaderboards (OF, 1B) for someone we're overlooking, but I'm finding it tough to find a hitter that's on the market (or could be) that would be a good acquisition for Davis/Niems.
But actually...wait. What if the Rays could somehow get their hands on these two hitters? Both were 25 years old last season, and both spent the year in Triple-A.
Player A: 12% walk rate, 23.5% strikeout rate, .215 ISO, .410 wOBA, 157 wRC+ (best in Triple-A)
PlayerB: 7.9% walk rate, 17.8% strikeout rate, .200 ISO, .400 wOBA, 150 wRC+ (fourth best in Triple-A)
Attractive, no? It just so happens both these hitters are already in the Rays organization.
Most of you have probably guessed already, but Player A is Russ Canzler and Player B is Brandon Guyer. From all reports, Guyer is also a strong defensive corner outfielder (and he can moonlight in center), which probably makes him a better defensive outfielder than Matt Joyce. I love Joyce, but there were times last season where he looked downright awkward out in right.
Meanwhile, Canzler played all around the diamond last season: third, first, and left and right field. While he's never been thought of as much of a prospect, this was the second straight year in a row that Canzler has posted a wRC+ above 150 (in 2010, he had a 151 wRC+ in Double-A with the Cubs).
If nothing else develops, the Rays could decide to enter the season with Joyce, Canzler, and Guyer splitting time between first base and right field. This would provide the Rays with alllll sort of flexibility; Guyer could fill in anywhere in the outfield, and Canzler could also fill in for Longoria if he ever needed a day off or got injured (knock-on-wood).
I'm not sure how the Rays feel about Canzler, and it's possible he starts the season in Triple-A again. But I certainly wouldn't mind seeing the Rays start the season with Canzler and Guyer on the team, even if that means the Rays don't acquire a "First Baseman of the Future". Both players deserve a chance to see what they can do in the majors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either (or both) of them turn into a valuable contributor to the Rays for multiple years to come.
#FreeBrandonGuyer! #FreeRussCanzler! It's about time these guys got some love.
1 recs | 214 comments
My opinion:
Joe Maddon does not want to platoon at 1b.
An occasional start by someone else than player x would be fine but I believe that giving the other 3 infielders and a pitching staff an anchor over at 1b is a huge part of the Maddon philosophy.
I am the exact opposite as you as I would like Canzler and Guyer in AAA to start the season and be brought up if needed. (I know I am pretty alone on this island).
MrNegative1 - January 9, 2012
I'm not sure I get the "does not want a platoon a X position" stuff.
Someone mentioned it once for SS before, and it always struck me as odd. What’s the benefit to having one player entrenched in a position vs. platooning? It seems to me the only thing Maddon wouldn’t want is platoons at 4+ different positions, since you can’t possibly make a 25-man roster work like that. But I don’t see what positions the platoons are at mattering a damn.
The Rays had a platoon going at 1B last season for a while with DanJo and Kotch. They’ve platooned at shortstop plenty of times before. I don’t think any position is necessarily off limits.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
We don't know what will happen @ 1st
Pena was rarely sat at 1st through slumps vs LHP when Aybar was around to hit
Kotchman didn’t sit last season because there was no option to hit LHP that was demonstrably better to force it.
Joe has shown a fondness for using matchups at other positions based on data so I wouldn’t say “no” to anywhere but 3B.
Jason Collette - January 9, 2012
I would suggest
based on Maddon’s time as manager here that he rarely likes to have multiple players at 1b.
He also has spoke many times of the importance of first base.
Will he platoon there? Sure, he might. I’d lay odds heavily against it though.
I believe the Rays will either trade or sign a first baseman that will play the majority of games at first base.
MrNegative1 - January 9, 2012
Yeah, I guess we'll see. I just don't think Maddon has ever been in a position where he could platoon players at 1B.
Last year was his first season since 2007 without Pena, and you’d be silly to platoon him with his sort of thump.
If the Rays don’t trade for a young guy, I’m kinda hoping they go with Joyce at first to start the year. I’d love to see how that works, and I also would like to get Guyer and Joyce more ABs. I’m not sure if I see the Rays doing this (depends how high they are on Joyce’s d at first), but it’d be cool.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
unless there's a miracle trade in the works
I’m on board with Joyce → 1B
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
Do you mean there's less of a miracle needed to get a replacement for Joyce in the OF?
Ben Tumbling - January 9, 2012
Yes, if you believe in Brandon Guyer...
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
I mean that there aren't really any 1B candidates out there to acquire via trade
that, on balance, would be better than Brandon Guyer.
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
Gotcha
And I agree
Ben Tumbling - January 9, 2012
Yup, agree...that's my thinking too.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
I'm not sold on Guyer...
Even though they guy only played minimally, I’m not sold on Guyer from what I’ve seen so far. That’s not to say he can’t do it, but I’m not going to be a very happy camper if he ends up starting on a team that is supposedly trying to spend about $10 mil more this offseason than last year and get back to the playoffs. I think that a lot depends on where Prince Fielder finally signs. If Prince goes to the Mariners, I see the Rays going hard after Justin Smoak. If Prince signs with the Rangers, there have already been rumors of the Rangers wanting to send Mitch Moreland to us for Wade Davis so I can see that happening. If Prince signs with Washington or Miluakee though, then I think the Rays will sign Kotchman or MAYYYYBE Pena who’s price has to be dropping with an apparent lack of interest in him. I just want the Rays to reamin relevant and I’ll be crossing my fingers that they get better at 1B and resign Damon.
tellrodt - January 9, 2012
Platooning at SS...
And how exactly has that worked out for the Rays? A platoon means nobody gets any extended time to get “into a groove” and therefore they put up numbers well below average. I’m all for Canzler being the next Elliot Johnson super utility guy but as for yet another platooning position to go along with C, SS, and at least one of the OF spots,… yuck!
tellrodt - January 9, 2012
I'm sure that if S-rod faced more righties last year, he would have hit much better!!!
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
This is an incredibly uninformed post.
Hatfield - January 10, 2012
get "into the groove"
Hatfield - January 10, 2012
Canzler cannot play first
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
I can't claim to have seen him play it much.
You follow Durham closely? Care to expand on that? I’m going based on the little bit I can find online.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
In chatting with a couple of scouting types
Canzler can “play” both corners, but he can’t play either position. A RH Dan Johnson if you will
Jason Collette - January 9, 2012
Okay, good to know.
Guess that makes him more a bench/DH bat. Eh, oh well.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
I'd rather have Betemit ;)
Jason Collette - January 9, 2012
If you're worried about Canzler's defense...
Betemit would be a more sure thing offensively, but defensively he looks like a poor fit.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
I think it's more than that
Halfway through the season, Montoyo moved Canzler off of 1B (after having moved him off of 3B) and to the corner OF/DH. This is the same manager who played Dan Johnson at 3B for most of the season, and in an organization that doesn’t need corner OF-types (and does need a 1B). That tells me that Montoyo thinks Canzler can’t play 1B at all.
As I said to rglass in another thread — and take it for whatever it’s worth — it looks to me that Canzler reacts very, very slowly to the ball off the bat. He’s very athletic, and he moves well for a big guy, but it just seems like his reaction time is incredibly slow.
If that’s the case, he’s never going to be able to play the IF, but he might have a chance to be a passable below-average defender in a corner OF spot.
That’s my take, anyway.
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
I dunno, if I guy is terrible at one position, you don't move him UP the defensive spectrum.
I think his — and Dan Johnson’s — moving around has more to do with having three first baseman (Johnson, Canzler, and Leslie Anderson) than any defensive issues.
BWoodrum - January 9, 2012
I'm not sure why you wouldn't if his particular skillset profiles better at a different, but generally considered, harder position to play.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
precisely
The “defensive spectrum” is a rule of thumb. Generally it’s easier to play 1B than it is to play LF. For some people, that’s not the case. I think Russ Canzler is one of those people, and I’ve given both scouting and evidence-based reasons why.
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
1B to COF if you have the bat to play at either is not quite a dramatic move "up" the spectrum, and could be related to merely necessity.
not to mention that if you have a good arm, even with miserable range and instincts you could be passable in the OF if your bat plays.
pudieron89 - January 11, 2012
Pretty sure Adam Sobsey had a similar take in his coverage
OK once he gets moving, but slow to get moving.
FreeZorilla - January 9, 2012
Sobsey deserves wider circulation
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
Bpro tomorrow dawg
FreeZorilla - January 9, 2012
Saw that. So excited.
Hatfield - January 10, 2012
Yep
When mgmt asked me about writers to add, Sobsey was the 1st name I submitted.
Jason Collette - January 10, 2012
#Humblebrag
FreeZorilla - January 10, 2012
nice job
BP looks like it’s really turning itself around from its nadir
AndrewTorrez - January 10, 2012
Nice post
Only thing is moving Joyce to 1B. I remember when the Rays acquired him hearing that he had good defensive ability. He hasn’t played any 1B in his career, seems like it would be uncharacteristic for the Rays to have him learn at the ML level.
Ian Moore - January 9, 2012
The Rays have had him working out at 1B this offseason.
It’s definitely a distinct possibility that he slides in there next season.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
Really? We're playing the triple-A numbers game again?
Did Dan Johnson’s .119/.187/.202 season (on the heels of a .303/.430/.624 line in 2010 with Durham) not happen? I get that Canzler is a good deal younger than DanJo, but I don’t see him as a starter
Imperialism32 - January 9, 2012
I'm not suggesting him as a starter necessarily.
Guyer and Joyce would get the majority of starts in RF/1B, yes? Canz would essentially be a bench bat that could fill in a number of places depending on the matchup (granted, I don’t know much about his D). Or be Triple-A depth, depending how the Rays fill out the roster.
Mostly, I felt silly highlighting Guyer’s performance and not also mentioning Canzler. Guyer’s the real nugget that I think people are underrating.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
Actually, now I'm curious what you think about Guyer.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
Its easy to underrate someone with no arms or legs
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Either this is a joke I'm not getting, or you're way more pessimistic on him than anything I've seen/heard.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
lol
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
People with no arms or legs
Nuggets
I have a horrible sense of humor ha. Btw I think it was you I recognized in the mcdonalds drivethru I manage…either you or hamann.
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Ooooooh! Gotcha.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
Thats was you, right?
…im not a 100%
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Hmm. If you live in Florida, probably not.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
Erm, probably not me. Could be Hahmann.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
Yeah m
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Yeah probably hahmann
I add him to the long list of celebrities ive taken the order of, including the whole brighthouse crew on a weekly basis. Lou pinella was my fav tho
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Which one do you manage?
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
Park and 52 ave
I have a bad habit of looking a ppls cards when I swipe them to see if its a name I recognize, thats how I came across hahmann. How sad is it that not one person that was working knew who lou pinella was when he came through ha
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
I'm sure you've swiped my card before then
Didn’t notice “Free Zorilla”
FreeZorilla - January 9, 2012
Ha yeah guess not
I pretty much talk sports with anyone wearing gear
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
I stick out like a sore thumb
Only college educated white guy in his mid 20’s ha
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Matt
FreeZorilla - January 9, 2012
Bob when swimming
rglass44 - January 10, 2012
Art when nailed to the wall
FreeZorilla - January 10, 2012
Yes, it happened.
With a wrist injury. In 91 PAs. With a .125 BABIP.
If the Rays said they were starting Dan Johnson at 1B this year, I’d be just about as happy with it as I was last year (which was perfectly content).
Whelk - January 9, 2012
Not to mention, Canzler hit that well at a much younger age than DanJo.
The whole DanJo thing from this past year still smarts some.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
Yes. This.
BWoodrum - January 9, 2012
Even despite all those things though he wasn't just bad, he was like ridiculously awful
wRC+ of like around 0 bad, with a BB% that completely vanished (6.6). Given his career BABIP of .243 in the bigs (in 1500+ PA) I’m skeptical to say that his true talent isn’t significantly lower than league average there.
All this said, I think DanJo can be a decent bat, but not good enough to be even a useful 1B (I’d love to be proven wrong though)
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
Maybe enough to be a useful DH though.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
I don't think he has enough bat to be a 1B, forget DH
What do you think his true talent wOBA is? I’d guess about 330, at which he’s not worth anything at DH and worth little at 1B
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
DH's only hit at a .337 wOBA clip last year.
Ironically, that is the exact same number as 1B. So I’m wrong in that department.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
Whoa no way
Maybe fangraphs’s positional adjustments are in need of tweaking then
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
Although I feel like that's atypically low
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
positional adjustments arent based on offense
rglass44 - January 10, 2012
Oliver has him at .337 for 2012, and that seems right to me.
Though I see plenty of opportunity for him to be better. That’s going with a pretty low batting average, which could easily fluctuate up and put him in “good 1B” territory.
Whelk - January 10, 2012
Nice post Steve, I tend to agree with you.
The more this off-season plays out the more I am convinced that the Rays may be just as well giving Canzler, Guyer….and even Stephen Vogt a long look.
Vogt is a guy that rarely gets talked about, and he can really probably only be a DH realistically. But he has hit at every level of the minors and looked good in winter ball against pretty decent pitching.
John Gregg - January 9, 2012
Hmm
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
I agree
I was working on some throw away projections for this year while bored at work and knew canzler raked last year but I didn’t know he raked that much…I also didn’t realise that he is only 25…for some reason…looks like he might be a classic AAAA guy but I don’t think he has a lot to prove in AAA
OneTonneBaby - January 9, 2012 via Android app
Letting both Guyer AND Canzler start in the majors is as close to giving up as it gets, imo.
if we are going “all in”, I’d say we have $10M to spend on 1B/DH, right? Now, I think Guyer should get a chance to start in RF this year, but with a backup plan. which is why I’ve been mentioning Shelley Duncan recently. So, doesn’t that mean we have about $10M just for a 1B? I think so. Of course, that brings up plenty of options, like Konerko, Butler, and Pena.
This has to be about the 10th time I’ve said it, but I am on the “1 year deal for Pena” boat. I just think it will cost too much to acquire Konerko or Butler.
Also, I believe we can acquire a future 1B in the process. Wade Davis to the Cards for Matt Adams and a C+ prospect? I’d take it.
But like I said, I’m just not on board with letting Canzler start the season with the Rays. It’s just too much of a risk in a year that we have talent and money (even if it’s not much) to help win a WS title.
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
I think you go "all-in" for a DH at this point, move Joyce to 1B
and give Guyer a shot in RF. Using Butler (just as an example), that’d give you a lineup of:
LF Jennings
2B Zobrist
3B Longoria
DH Butler
1B Joyce
CF Upton
RF Guyer
C Molina/Lobaton
SS Brignac
That looks pretty good to me.
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
That's a possibility :)
If we can trust Joyce at 1B and Guyer in RF, I’m on board with going after Butler. So, what would it take to get him?
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
Also, I'd still want us to somehow acquire Matt Adams.
I like everything about him right now.
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
I'm with you on Adams
slight concern about his BB/K rate but he would be a fine consolation prize for having lost out on Rizzo
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
I wonder if there's a way to get both Butler and Adams,
without trading 2 of our 8 MLB-ready pitchers. Looks doubtful at the moment, but I hope we can find a way. Adams would surely require Davis/Niemann, right?
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
no way to tell
I don’t see much buzz about him in STL quarters, but who knows. I think had the Cards re-signed Pujols, it would have been a no-brainer
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
His BB/ K this year was identical to Rizzo's AA season (2010)
MakeitRayn - January 9, 2012
People weren't nearly as excited about Rizzo before his 2011 breakout
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
KLAW was
rglass44 - January 10, 2012
1,000 monkeys at 1,000 typewriters
if he’s right about Delino DeShields, Jr. being a future star, I’ll revisit my opinion
AndrewTorrez - January 10, 2012
The next Matt Sweeney!
FreeZorilla - January 10, 2012
vs. L/ vs. R
just thinking this through — if Guyer is the starting RF, that opens up a bench spot for Canzler, who could start at DH vs. lefties. You could also stomach Butler’s below-average defense at 1B once or twice a week to spell Joyce. That’d give you lineups like this:
vs. L: LF Jennings / CF Upton / 3B Longoria / 1B Butler / 2B Zobrist / SS S. Rodriguez / RF Guyer / DH Canzler / C Molina
vs. R: LF Jennings / 2B Zobrist / 3B Longoria / DH Butler / 1B Joyce / CF Upton / RF Guyer / C Lobaton / SS Brignac
bench: C (Molina/Lobaton), IF (S. Rod/ Brignac), OF Fuld (L), DH Canzler (sometimes Joyce)
I have no idea what it would take to acquire Butler; KC has been unpredictable in terms of their front office. I would think he’d be available for something on the order of Alex Cobb, but who knows.
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
I'm hoping for Shelley Duncan in Canzler's place,
but it’s no big deal to have Canzler play once or twice a week, like you said.
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
No way would I give up Cobb for Butler.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
What do you think would be a fair trade both ways?
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
why not?
they’re essentially the same value now, and I think Butler has more potential to be a 4-win player down the road. That, plus scarcity plus positional need means you trade 5 years of Cobb for 3 of Butler.
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
cost
rglass44 - January 9, 2012
and control
rglass44 - January 9, 2012
I don't think control would be much of a concern
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
$8M in 12, 13, AND 14? I'll trade for that every day.
Not to mention Butler hasn’t reached his prime yet, you know you’re getting nothing less than what you’ve seen, and showed power in the 2nd half of last year.
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
Splits are scary.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
One concern:
Righty-filled team? Having a 1B who costs 8 mil+ probably gives Guyer the RF job. If that 1B is a RH, then what? Basically replacing 2 lefties, Kotch and Damon, with 2 righties could be a problem. IF we brought in Butler, I think we should find a way to bring Damon back as well.
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
i like this. butler im warming to if hes not expensive to acquire.
his power breakout in the second half helped.
rglass44 - January 9, 2012
(just as an example)
let me guess who that was for. lol.
rglass44 - January 9, 2012
I think as a bench player/bat, you could do far worse than Canzler.
And I also think it’s highly likely that Guyers get a lot of PAs next year, and I’ve got no problem with that. It’d be far from giving up…it’s probably the best option for the Rays in RF.
Sign Pena or Scott or something for DH, get a bench player…anything on top of that I’m considering gravy at this point
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
+1
jtmorgan - January 9, 2012
I agree that Guyer should be given the chance to play RF.
And agree we could do far worse than Canzler, but breaking camp with no moves made at 1B/DH is pathetic. But that’s just me—I may be under-rating Canzler at this point.
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
Oh, they're going to get someone for DH at least.
The trick will be if they end up getting two big(ish) bats or just one.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
I wonder if Damon could fit in with a big-ish bat
if that bat costs $8M
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
I think you just have to be honest with Damon
and say you’re looking at him as a 400 AB role-player and not a 150-game starter. If he’s cool with that, he’d be a great bench bat/spot starter/clubhouse cheerleader.
If not — well, Price is still around to do goofy stuff in the dugout, and I think Fuld might shine in a 4th OF role.
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
Have to hang on to Damon.
He’s always the one to spike the Gatorade in late innings!!
Hatfield - January 9, 2012
As I wrote earlier, the addition of Jennings for a full season might be the biggest difference from last year offensively.
If we can get a .325 and a .350 wOBA hitters to play the roles of DH and 1B. This offense isn’t as inept as many would make it seem. I think most of the struggles get overblown when we had 3 automatic outs batting 7-9 it seemed for those games when we would have Elliot, Brignac, and Catcher playing.
This team can win 95 games with their pitching and defense. And that is enough to get your chance in the playoffs. An extra bat would obviously be better if it doesn’t take away defensively, but I don’t think it’s necessary.
jtmorgan - January 9, 2012
Even if Jennings has a solid sophmore season
you’re talking about a team with three good hitters (Longoria, Zobrist, Jennings), one good but flawed hitter who can’t hit lefties (Joyce), one streaky hitter who disappears for long stretches versus righties (Upton), a platoon guy who can only hit lefties (S-Rod), two automatic outs (Molina, Brignac), and no DH or 1B. That does not strike me as a 95-win team even if they lead the league in pitching and defense.
Plus, it’s a team — like the 2009 and 2010 models — that’s particularly unsuited for the playoffs against elite pitching. If Longoria is tired/slumping in October, you’re looking at one guy (Zobrist) who can hit C.C. Sabathia or Jon Lester.
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
Joyce was much better against lefties last year.
And his killing of righties makes him, overall, a good hitter.
And Upton didn’t hit lefties at all last year, only hitting righties well.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
Quibble
I doubt that’s true. Bill Petti shows that elite run preventing teams did better in the playoffs than elite run scoring teams: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/2/22/1994723/is-it-better-to-be-an-elite-run-producing-or-run-preventing-team
Moreover, Upton has OPSed .880 against Sabbathia, and S-Rod .872
Whelk - January 9, 2012
(See 2010-2011 ALDS)
2010: 21 runs allowed (solid), 13 runs scored (not solid). This in 5 games.
2011: 16 runs allowed (very good), 21 runs scored (better). This in 4 games.
The problem with 2011 was that we scored 9 runs in game 1. We then lost by 2 in game 2, then lost 4-3 in the next 2 games.
We have a pretty solid lineup and greta pitching, but we just need another impact bat to reach the next level.
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
The runs allowed were the same in a per game scenario, but the offense was much better.
Granted they didn’t have to face Cliff Lee twice.
jtmorgan - January 9, 2012
I should have said "lineup", not "team"
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
As I said 2 hitters added 1 being .325 and a .350 wOBA hitters at 1B and DH (or other positions if it causes somebody like Joyce to move to 1B/DH).
When you’re talking about 20-30 PA over a 5 or 7 game series things are always going to be streaky. Teams will struggle if their biggest players struggle, especially in high leverage situations.
What is the difference though between 2009/2010 and 2008? Longoria and Upton carried the offense through the playoffs. The numbers of the 2 hitters would replicate approximately what Damon and Kotchman produced in 2011. An offense that produces another 0.50 a run a game that would put them in the range of NY, Boston, and Texas wouldn’t automatically make them produce better in the playoffs.
The biggest weakness last year in my opinion was the bench which made matchups problematic in the playoffs when they are magnified. I’m hoping they will have better production from the bench this year, which wouldn’t be difficult. A Molina/Lobaton, SRod/Brignac, Guyer, Fuld, Canzler bench for the playoffs right now would give options late in the game that the team didn’t have last year.
jtmorgan - January 9, 2012
I think you're underrating a lot of the guys there.
Joyce is better than “good but flawed”, S-Rod / Briggy has the potential to be a quite good SS solution, and Upton…well, he’s Upton but he still has his endless potential.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
maybe
when the Rays acquire a DH/1B, I’m sure I’ll go back to being optimistic
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
Probably time to drop the word endless
FreeZorilla - January 9, 2012
What are you guys projecting Jennings to hit?
I’m going with .260/.340/.430, which is nice, but isn’t great.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
higher obp imo
rglass44 - January 9, 2012
Given his speed I'd project a better BA
Which should help his other numbers
Transplanted - January 9, 2012
I'm just afraid that people are going to jump the ship if he doesn't hit at the unrealistic expectations.
His approach altered during the past year, adding power while subtracting some average and K’ing more. I think we will see more of that in 2012.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
BJ'd
Time to have to live through another 5yrs of complaining
Transplanted - January 9, 2012
.270/.350/.445
Something along those lines with 15 HR 40SB
jtmorgan - January 9, 2012
.320/.405/.475
Ben Tumbling - January 9, 2012
lol
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
That's Tim Raines' age 25 line btw
I’m sticking with that.
Ben Tumbling - January 9, 2012
Oh, I thought you were joking.
If thatis your bold prediction, I am fine with it.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
my guess is that a joke prediction
would have a .420 in it somewhere
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
He's shown fantastic walk rates throughout the minors, I'd expect a slightly better OBP
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
OK, we acquire both Billy Butler and Matt Adams, and lose ___
sc_monsta1015 - January 9, 2012
...one World Series game
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
Davis for butler and a couple of c+ prospects for adams
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
I think a good comparison of Adam's trade value would Rizzo's value in 2010.
MakeitRayn - January 9, 2012
Rizzo was much better defensively and more liked by scouts.
And he was 2 years younger.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
Adams put up better Offensive numbers though
However, I did fail to attribute age to my thought process.
MakeitRayn - January 9, 2012
Yup.
117 wOBA+ to a 108 wOBA+. Not that impressive from Rizzo.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
wRC+
has it 139 Adams, 120 Rizzo. I think the difference in K% sets them apart. If Adams would only walk just ~3-4% more, he would a be an top level prospect. Even though he would probably have to DH, he would be a desirable target.
MakeitRayn - January 9, 2012
Where did you get wrc+?
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
I'm assuming FanGraphs.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
Yes, I got it from here.
MakeitRayn - January 9, 2012
People don't realize this, but wRC+ is actually 100+double the deviation from league average
So a wRC+ of 110 is 5% better than league average
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
Didn't know that.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
Even fangraphs' own writing staff doesn't know that most of the time
It’s a little ridiculous
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
Wow, not one mention of Juan Miranda
Is it possible Friedman thinks he already has a 1st baseman?
Ray Bucbolt - January 9, 2012
You ought to be Mirandized for suggesting such a despicable scenario
Ben Tumbling - January 9, 2012
Should I be ashamed to admit I laughed out loud at this?
Barnacles - January 9, 2012
Only if you typed lol...so your safe
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Yours
Hatfield - January 9, 2012
I'm not saying that's the answer
But isn’t that pretty much AF’s established pattern?
Ray Bucbolt - January 9, 2012
No.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
I like Davis for Gaby Sanchez
gjsor - January 9, 2012
I'd rather have Jesus Guzman for scraps
than give up Davis for Gaby Sanchez
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
Don't hate the playa...
Because isn’t that AF’s style?
Ray Bucbolt - January 9, 2012
Not really his style at all
I can’t imagine AF willing to rely solely on Miranda, Canzler etc. (i.e. the current mix including Joyce) for his 2012 1B. For every DJ, there must be a Kotchman, going way back to Pena and the Korean 1B whose name escapes me at the moment (Choi?)
crawdelli - January 9, 2012
Canzler/Miranda platoon FTW.
DH problem solved.
Vin - January 9, 2012
Miranda career OPS against RH is .705
Not good enough
crawdelli - January 9, 2012
I'm not entirely serious.
But you’re quoting OPS for a sample size of less than 250 plate appearances.
It’s worthless.
Vin - January 9, 2012
Not worthless, but worthlittle
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
If mariners sign fielder
Would you want the rays to go hard after smoak?
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Going hard as in "at all cost"?
But acquiring him for the right price would be nice.
What about trading one of our better SP for something like (I am not fluent on their farm).
But, Shields/Helly/Price for Smoak, Hultzen, and prospects.
MakeitRayn - January 9, 2012
Doubt it
I think they are super high on hultzen and dont think the rays should trade price/shields/helly right now.
I think a better idea would be a couple prospects for smoak or davis/niemann for smoak+
If they sign fielder, maybe they will be too happy to care what they get in return.
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
The Rays do not match up well with the Mariners
Their system is pretty loaded with top notch starting prospects to join Felix and Pineda.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/9/2619595/seattle-mariners-top-20-prospects-for-2012
Moore Guerreri and Cheese - January 9, 2012
Why would the Mariners do that?
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
The Rays' SP would be major league ready, and less of a risk than Hultzen
They might want to make a 2 year run at a WS, If they sign Fielder, with an aging Ichiro, and Felix’s time running out.
MakeitRayn - January 9, 2012
Hultzen isn't very risky (and is a top 15 overall prospect).
It would take Hellickson, and very possibly more. Hultzen is pretty comparable to Hellickson a year or two ago.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
They are no where ready to contend
Fielder would be a longterm investment and they will probably trade felix before they contend. With fielder, their window wouldnt be open for at least a couple years from now, when guys like hultzen, ackley, franklin,.and walker are all together.
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
I agree,
But I was just suggesting an outlandish trade, but trades have been made before that make less sense.
MakeitRayn - January 9, 2012
I don't think the Rays would be willing to give up that much for Smoak
It doesn’t strike me as a Rays-type move
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
If we dont sign anyone....
I wonder if Vogt jumps into the mix at 1B/Dh. I think maddon would like the idea of having a guy that can catch in a pinch and it may give him the edge over canzler. Any thoughts?
bvert38 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Friedman already said hes confident we add 2 bats to lineup
Unless he is referring to an upgrade at catcher (conger) or shortstop (theriot), hes talking about 1B and DH. That makes me think they arent considering in house platoons or position changes (joyce).
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Nice read
Being new here I’ll tread lightly. All the spec about 1B sharing (Joyce, Guyer, Canzler) doesn’t seem to factor in one HUGE item that has been and will remain paramount with the Rays and that is defense. Kotch is great, Pena is great but these other guys won’t be great and I don’t think the Rays will sacrifice “D” for unknown offense. The Rays infield and pitching staff is used to having a gold glove at first and I don’t think that changes, not even a little. Thoughts?
keys - January 9, 2012
One trade target with gold glove potential
Ike Davis..too bad might not be available
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
"Kotch is great, Pena is great"
That’s not the case though.
Both are above average but neither is a “great” defensive first baseman. At least not at this stage in their careers.
Vin - January 9, 2012
First base defense is considered to be somewhat less important because the best defensive first baseman aren't as good as the best defensive players at other positions
I.e. Top 3 1B last season were +11, +11, +9 runs, top 3 2B were +18, +17, +15
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
Which would be why Reid will get another shot this year
As bad as his offense was, Joe can’t resist that glove and quick release.
joeybw - January 9, 2012
Well, there's a similar situation at SS because teams rarely like to compromise with defense at this position
How many butchers can you name at SS?
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
Betancourt is always the first name that comes to mind.
joeybw - January 9, 2012
Felix Fermin
When Seattle traded Omar Vizquel to the Indians for Felix Fermin and $900,000, one of the PI guys quipped that instead of playing Fermin at short, the Mariners would be better off “just stacking the $900,000 between second and third, and seeing how many balls it could stop.”
AndrewTorrez - January 10, 2012
some may suggest
and I mean guys like Weaver, Martin, Lasorda, Anderson, & D.Williams that they all wanted a first baseman who was good defensively (as well as offensively) because it made the rest of the infielders better.
In each one of their books they’ve all given the same sort of tag line and that is….defense at first base may not seem to be as important as the other positions but there has never been a great infield without a great first baseman.
One word about these books. They were all written back in the 80’s and there wasn’t the quick reference to UZR/150 or other metrics to check their first baseman and how the numbers actually stack up to their views.
MrNegative1 - January 10, 2012
No?
Kotch’s ‘D’ last year wasn’t GG worthy? I agree Pena’s “D” was slipping, hence a big treason he disappeared, I think.
keys - January 9, 2012
"Kotch’s ‘D’ last year wasn’t GG worthy?"
Absolutely not. Wasn’t even close to his career best.
Vin - January 9, 2012
No it wasn't.
Great hands, mediorce range.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
This
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
In Maddon's own words
The only drop-off from Pena to Kotchman was Pena was better going back on balls. Other than that, he put their abilities on equal terms during one of the pre-game interviews this year (around August, I think).
Jason Collette - January 9, 2012
Maddon also said my poop smelled like roses
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
Way to add to the conversation!
Jason Collette - January 9, 2012
Pshh I thought it was funny
My point being, maddons opinion on someone can be meaningless at times, hes always going to build them up and sell them for more than they are. I would rather look at the numbers or listen to objective analysis.
Im in the boat that kotch had great hands and made all the routine plays, with the occasional great play. However I dont think he is very athletic nor do I think he has above average range. Personally, I loved pena’s range when he was with the rays.
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
He's not one to throw useless praise out there
He compared their ability to go side to side, do pick-offs, and charge balls. It was a 2-3 minute conversation about it.
Jason Collette - January 9, 2012
Over the last 4 years with 1st baseman playing at least 3000 innings, the 1st baseman with the highest UZR/150 ratings is Daric Barton(7.9)
He also has the highest range factor of any 1st baseman over that time span.
Last year (thru the end of August)he was 4th in baseball in scoop percentage at 90%(Kotchman was 2nd at 93%) and he was 4th in runs saved per game at 1.4 runs(Kotch and Huff was 1st at 2.1)
Over those 4 years Kotchman is 3rd in UZR/150 at 6.6 and 7th in range factor at 6.5
I have always said that if there is a choice between the two, and they are similar hitters with Barton having a much longer history of having a higher OBP, I would acquire Barton(for minimal if any compensation) and for a lot less than Kotch would have to be signed(including a likely 2nd year as well).
budman3 - January 9, 2012
If you like your 1B to have some pop, you will love Daric Barton.
(You will not love Daric Barton)
Hatfield - January 10, 2012
Conversely
Maddon rarely focuses on a players flaws. He’s much more likely to talk about what a player does well. Just like what you described, kotch was incredibly fundementaly sound defensively. Maybe we have just been spoiled, but I miss the insanely athletic plays pena used to make. Defensively I would take pena every day.
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
I wouldn't..... at least not anymore.
Pena did lead baseball in scoops last season but was also among the leaders in mishandled balls too.
budman3 - January 9, 2012
Yeah, this.
He flashed some range on rare occasions, but for the most part he didn’t move much. Excellent on scoops and throws, though.
Steve Slowinski - January 9, 2012
Considering Either and Kemp won one, yes he was GG worthy
MakeitRayn - January 9, 2012
Johnny Damon was GG worthy.
mr. maniac - January 9, 2012
1.000 fielding %
Vin - January 9, 2012
lol
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
Matt Joyce
will most likely get his feet wet at 1b and become familiar with the position. Maddon did the same with Ben Zobrist last ST:
MrNegative1 - January 9, 2012
It's the break in case of emergency situation
Zobrist was never going to be our 1B and neither will Joyce. Just having him practice it in case an injury or 2 strikes.
joeybw - January 9, 2012
I wouldn't say never
I am against moving Joyce to 1b and don’t think he will see much time there in 2012 but on the other hand guys have made a case of how much of a benefit getting him time there in 2012 could be.
I think it’s worthwhile to keep an open mind on the subject.
MrNegative1 - January 9, 2012
also, Zobrist looked terrible at 1B
I’m sure Zobrist could learn to play the position, but it looked like it was going to be a huge learning curve.
AndrewTorrez - January 9, 2012
I could see Joyce being a fulltime 1B
benderbrodriguez - January 9, 2012
I think Derrek Lee is probabaly still under consideration as an option as 1st/DH sign
He can still field above average and brings a solid RH bat to the table. Experience, 19 HR’s and could be a flexible choice for Maddon if used in both spots along with a LH’ed partner.
budman3 - January 9, 2012
He looked rather helpless against AL pitching though and didn't wake up until he got back in the NL
I’d bring him in at nothing more than about 3 mil.
Peter Piontek - January 9, 2012
I worry about d lee making the transition to the AL
BossmanJunior333 - January 9, 2012 via mobile
I think his .246/.302/.404 line in Baltimore validates those worries
AndrewTorrez - January 10, 2012
how did pena do his last year in the al?
ina full season, and hes since aged a year.
rglass44 - January 10, 2012
not a big Pena believer for the same reason
Billy Butler or Luke Scott at DH, Joyce to 1B, sign a complementary bat.
AndrewTorrez - January 10, 2012
More and more people are jumping on the Butler bandwagon and I still don't understand why
But maybe as Friedman does, you guys are seeing something I’m not. I will give him one thing, his power potential is much higher than Damon. I don’t want Scott, he can’t hit lefties, he’s coming off injury and the amount of teams interested make him expensive.
joeybw - January 10, 2012
Ok random prediction with no backing from the guy no one here ever believes
Tomorrow (yeah it’s a little passed mid night but I do mean January 10th), Wade Davis will be traded.
joeybw - January 10, 2012
Based on nothing but your gut feeling?
BossmanJunior333 - January 10, 2012 via mobile
Rizzotti
I don’t know how well we really match up with the Phils but I would like to see about getting Matt Rizzotti. Howard is blocking 1B for what 5-6 more years. Rizzottis is 25 and has mashed at about every level.
JBrooks31 - January 10, 2012
nice find
sort of a Clint Robinson type. I can’t imagine he’d be particularly expensive, and is certainly worth a flyer.
AndrewTorrez - January 10, 2012
Rays may be be able to improve with signing both Lee and Scott
Lee gives you a solid bat at first with above average defense and Scott may rebound to have a strong year with 25+ HR’s as the DH. They could both interchange on some days at first base and DH as well. You probably could sign both on one year deals for about 3-4 million each keeping the Rays within 60 million.
You would then have the ability to move Neimann or Davis for a nice package of a young almost ready 1st baseman and/or catcher with maybe a young couple of talented arms thrown in as well. It wouldn’t be much different than the signing of Damon/Manny late last winter.
budman3 - January 10, 2012
Lee looked absolutely terrible with Baltimore last season
.246/.302/.404, and he looked worse than that at the plate. Do not want.
AndrewTorrez - January 10, 2012
But his numbers were good enough overall and he still projects as a solid player
14 on weighted runs created as a replacement (as good as Pena, much better than Kotchman). Struggling with O’s in the AL East for 1/2 a season doesn’t mean he’s done. He fits the Rays needs on several levels(especially in tandem with a Scott signing) and is at least a good an option as there seems to be right now and the cost would fit the payroll.
The type of “complimentary” acquisition AF may be talking about.
budman3 - January 10, 2012
I don't buy his garbage-time numbers with the Pirates facing the dreck of the National League
if you think it was a 364-plate-appearance fluke, I can understand why you’d want to take a chance on him. But for me — and I watch a lot of Orioles games — he looked absolutely done at the plate.
Since I think Lee is ticketed for a sub-.700 OPS if he lands in Tropicana Field, I’d rather just move Joyce to 1B and give RF to Guyer (spotted by Fuld). I’m higher on Guyer than most, I guess, but I think even his detractors expect him to put up at least a .700 OPS.
AndrewTorrez - January 10, 2012
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