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Recently there was a story posted at Walk Like a Sabermetrician about the production by lineup slot. The data brought to light the struggles the Rays had in the important cleanup spot in their lineup in 2011. Overall the Rays cleanup hitters ranked 13th out of 14 teams in the AL in batting average at .230, SLG% at .386, and OPS at .689 and 12th in the AL in OBP at .306,
Sixteen players had a plate appearance in the cleanup spot for the Rays in 2011 and as stated above posted a very poor slash line of .230/.306/.387 an OPS of .693. Three players, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, and Matt Joyce, amassed 68.2% of the plate appearances in the cleanup spot (478 of the 701 plate appearances). Below is each players overall performance (including plate appearances as pinch hitters) while hitting 4th:
In Baseball Prospectus book Baseball Between the Numbers James Click (a current member of the Rays front office) wrote a chapter titled Was Billy Martin Crazy where he focused on a number of topics concerning a teams lineup construction. He opened the chapter with the following:
Picking a lineup is one of baseball's most scrutinized decisions. Players often discuss feeling more comfortable in one lineup spot or another. Whether a player bats seventh or fifth can cause major controversy on sports radio and talk shows. Managers move players around the lineup in attempts to increase the team's run scoring, both by getting better players more plate appearances and by supposedly protecting the big bats in the lineup.
Although Ben Zobrist and Matt Joyce performed adequately in the cleanup position in 2011. Evan Longoria seemed to struggle the most in the cleanup spot in 2011 which is an oddity for him. In 2008 he had 143 PA as the cleanup hitter and posted a slash line of .281/.350/.594 an OPS of .943 and in 2010 he had 360 PA as the cleanup hitter and posted a slash line of .313/.369/.558 an OPS of .927.
When this disparity in numbers is brought up its only natural to ask the question - Did Evan Longoria have more protection hitting behind him in 2008 and 2010 than he had in 2011? One of the statements made by James Click in Was Billy Martin Crazy article was, "Furthermore, managers worrying about protecting their best hitters need not fret." An interesting commentary and an opportunity to examine what type of protection Zobrist, Longoria, and Joyce had hitting behind them when they hit in the cleanup spot in 2011 then let's take a look at the difference in protection in the lineup for Evan Longoria in 2008 and 2010 as opposed to 2011. It should be noted that no data is examined for Longoria's 2009 season because he only had 9 PAs in the cleanup spot.
Ben Zobrist made the most starts(52) as the Rays cleanup hitter in 2011 and posted a slash line of .255/.314/.425 an OPS of .739. The hitters who hit behind Zobrist in the fifth spot posted a slash line slightly better than Zobrist by posting a slash line of .259/.355/.407 an OPS of .762. The chart below details the five players who were used as protection for Ben Zobrist in the lineup.
Evan Longoria made the second most starts (38) as the cleanup hitter for the Rays and struggled and posted a slash line of .206/.323/.353 an OPS of .676. The hitters who hit fifth to protect Longoria were quite impressive and posted a slash line of .348/.396/.610 and OPS of 1.006. The chart below details the four players who were used as protection for Evan Longoria in the lineup.
Matt Joyce made the third most starts (33) as the cleanup hitter for the Rays in 2011 and posted an impressive slash line of .286/.358/.571 an OPS of .929. The hitters who hit fifth to protect Joyce were equally impressive and posted a slash line of .313/.370/.590 and OPS of 960. The chart below details the five players who were used as protection for Matt Joyce in the lineup.
In 2010 Evan Longoria made 84 starts as the cleanup hitter in the Rays lineup and posted a slash line of .313/.369/.558 an OPS of .927. The hitters that Joe Maddon placed 5th in the lineup as protection posted a slash line of .193/.317/.376 an OPS of .694. The chart below details the eight players who were used as protection for Evan Longoria in the lineup.
In 2008 Evan Longoria made 33 starts in the 4 spot in the Rays lineup and posted a slash line of .281/.350/.594 an OPS of .943. The hitters that Joe Maddon placed 5th in the lineup as protection posted a slash line of .217/.295/.426 an OPS of .721. The chart below details the six players who were used as protection for Evan Longoria in the lineup.
Much of the time Longoria spent in the cleanup spot in 2011 came after a disabled lists tint for a strained oblique and later it was revealed that he was fighting through a nerve-foot condition; therefore, the lack of protection in the lineup does not seem to be a valid reason as to why he struggled. The final conclusion in the James Click article is that:
There's no evidence that having a superior batter behind another batter provides the initial batter with better pitches to hit; if it does, those batters see no improvement in performance as a result.
This conclusion seems to be reinforced by Longoria's ability to far outperform his protection in 2008 and 2010.
0 recs | 41 comments
So poor old Evan sucks as a clean up hitter,
Does anyone think he could have still been injured or in a slump during this period, or does anyone really believe Evan somehow mentally cannot perform in the 4 hole?
sternfan1 - January 7, 2012
Check out his 3 hole stats (I didn't look them up, but assume they'd be pretty nuts).
I expect a monster season from Evan this next year wherever he bats.
jtmorgan - January 7, 2012
It's far and foremost a mental thing ...
… he didn’t suck in the 4 the years before, he just felt unprotected and thus had another approach at the plate. With Upton staying he should have Joyce and/or a new 1B/DH behind him. The most important thing is that he feels comfortable with the guys behind him and that the opposing pitchers fear the guys behind him.
BurGi - January 7, 2012
When most of his batting 4th happened wasn't Joyce being MoM.
That would have been sufficient protections for it to be anything mental and think it was getting back from the injury and getting into the season.
jtmorgan - January 7, 2012
I think the easier answer would be that he was still hurting from the injury.
mr. maniac - January 7, 2012
+1
Peter Piontek - January 7, 2012
Just throwing this out there
I believe that protection can help a batter in certain circumstances. Here is an example, man on second base two outs and Evan Longoria comes to the plate. The pitcher will more than likely pitch around Longo because he has first base open. if he had a true stud behind him the pitcher would be less likely to put another man on base in that situation, and in that situation Evan would see better pitches to hit.
td32 - January 7, 2012 via mobile
An interesting study
Would be batting average with runners in scoring position but first base unoccupied.
td32 - January 7, 2012 via mobile
This is why a GM tries to add bats to extend the line up
sternfan1 - January 7, 2012
I remember discussing this earlier.
The conclusion I came to was that he was most likely recovering from injury. Most of his cleanup AB came in May when he was clearly not right, wasn’t it? I don’t think protection has anything to do with it.
When people talk about protection, I always ask how Jason Bay put up such good numbers in Pittsburgh with no one behind him.
SandalsNoPants - January 7, 2012
Yup yup.
mr. maniac - January 7, 2012
damon and Pena
Jennings LF
Upton CF
Longoria 3B
Joyce 1B
Zobrist 2B
Pena 1B
Damon DH
Molina C
Rodriguez SS
sternfan1 - January 7, 2012
I'll take it.
So you trade Davis/Niemann for prospects?
mr. maniac - January 7, 2012
I'll take one Wilson Rasario to go please.
joeybw - January 7, 2012
I'd love both Pena and Damon, but would we be willing to spend about $12M between the two?
That would put us over $60M in payroll. If we did that, would there be any way we can get Guyer some good at-bats this year? The only solution is Damon on a limited DH role. I’d be more interested in a guy like Shelley Duncan who can help Pena vs. lefties.
sc_monsta1015 - January 7, 2012
So what I'm saying is:
If we sign Pena and Damon—Add Duncan for Lobaton, and add Conger plus decent prospect for Sean-Rod. Add Theriot. Trade Davis/Niemann for Matt Adams.
If we sign Pena and NOT Damon—Start Guyer in RF, and add Duncan. Also add the other trades I made in the first one.
sc_monsta1015 - January 7, 2012
What a mess.
Hatfield - January 7, 2012
lol
sc_monsta1015 - January 8, 2012
MOM and OHW in the 4/5....sweet
FreeZorilla - January 8, 2012
Not that I disagree with the result of the analysis
But I’m not sure using same-season numbers of the respective #5 hitters is a good way to judge whether there was adequate “protection.” After all, Pena had a monster 2007, so if protection was ‘real,’ that is more likely what pitchers had in mind instead of his 2008 numbers, especially early in 2008 (unless there is a time machine that allows pitchers in May 2008 to see how Carlos would perform in August 2008.)
nomoredevil - January 7, 2012
what I'm trying to say is
if protection is a real thing (which I don’t think it is), it would be related to the pitcher’s perception of quality of the on-deck hitter rather than the actual quality. And I don’t know that there is a way to crunch that numerically in a way that will either prove or disprove it.
nomoredevil - January 7, 2012
Protection is real
Ryan Braun (well after 50 games) with show how much protection means.
joeybw - January 7, 2012
So, let me be sure I understand your point here...
In the last 100+ years of baseball history, numerous studies by competent individuals looking at all the data available show that there’s no proof of protection helping a batter, But 50 games of Ryan Braun in 2012 will prove it to be true?
ChiBurbRaysFan - January 7, 2012
I actually meant after his 50 game suspension
His career wont be going as well as it has been.
joeybw - January 7, 2012
Because he stopped roiding
MakeitRayn - January 7, 2012
Time to guess who again
Who thinks Friedman is simply talking bout Damon and Kotchman? I like Damon, I want an upgrade at 1B.
joeybw - January 7, 2012
We'll I'm guessing it will be Trumbo and Damon
I figured I’d answer myself because people have lives and are out on a Saturday, not me, though.
joeybw - January 7, 2012
Fielder and Hanley Ramirez would complement and fit in very well...
:)
Snarfalicious - January 7, 2012
Hanley wont DH, that's the only reason we can't do it.
What a shame.
joeybw - January 7, 2012
Haha... well we could do this:
1. DJ – LF
2. Upton – CF
3. Longoria – 3B
4. Fielder – 1B
5. Ramirez – SS
6. Zobrist – RF
7. Joyce/Guyer – DH
8. Catcher
9. Sean Rod – 2B
Lineup achieved!
Snarfalicious - January 7, 2012
Damnit, I really liked those pants too.
Why can’t we have a new TV deal or new stadium?
joeybw - January 7, 2012
I wouldn't sign that fat candymonger if he played for free.
Hatfield - January 7, 2012
Along with morales or trumbo
Do you think rays could make a play for conger too? with ianetta there for at least a couple years, it looks like conger is going to be the backup, which is a waste.
What about davis and lobaton for morales/trumbo and conger?
BossmanJunior333 - January 7, 2012 via mobile
NO Trumbo
I think Anaheim is way to high on him. He is very cheap, and they want to move him to 3B. I wouldn’t like the price it would take to get him. The problem with Morales is he has missed a lot of time, and that’s a lot of risk to take on if he is our plan at 1B.
MakeitRayn - January 7, 2012
I'd only be interested in Conger alone.
Who knows, if we are really interested in Theriot, maybe we can move Sean-Rod for Conger plus a C/C+ prospect. Not that I think we should be wanting to trade Sean-Rod, but I think Conger still has a lot of potential.
sc_monsta1015 - January 7, 2012
Agreed
Im more interested in conger than trumbo right now. BB% and K% seem to be in good order and ugly .231 babip lead to low ba last season, despite solid 18% ld rate.
BossmanJunior333 - January 7, 2012 via mobile
Why is Srod's name even being thrown around?
Because of Anaheim’s rotation?
SandalsNoPants - January 7, 2012
Like I said, I don't think Sean-Rod should be traded.
Just, if we are realy high on Theriot and sign him, him and Briggy could get the job done next year until Bex and HJL come around.
sc_monsta1015 - January 8, 2012
alternative
don’t be high on Theriot
AndrewTorrez - January 8, 2012
Yeah, I'm not.
But maybe the Rays have faith in Briggy.
sc_monsta1015 - January 8, 2012
Well, he did teach John Travolta to dance...
nomoredevil - January 8, 2012
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