Is Johnny Damon Worth Re-Signing

by jcmitchell on Jan 6, 2012 10:00 AM EST in Features & Analysis

J. Meric - Getty Images

The Rays have two gaping holes in their current roster. One is at the first base position and the other is at the designated hitter role.

Most who know me know that I hate a full-time designated hitter. I think it is a waste of a roster spot unless that hitter is posting at least a wRC+ of 130 or higher. I would rather reserve the designated hitter role (I do not consider it a position), especially for a team that plays half of its games on turf, as a revolving door to give the players a rest.

Johnny Damon was the full-time designated hitter for the 2011 Rays and he posted a .261/.328/.416 line with a wOBA of .328 and wRC+ of 109. He was an above-average hitter and stole 19 bases but it was an underwhelming performance and one we did not expect from Damon who has not posted an OBP that low since 2001 when he posted a .324 OBP with the Oakland A's.

To me, it looked like Damon was pressing for the first 4+ months of the season, trying his hardest to put the ball in play and get that much closer to 3000 hits. His line from the start of the season to August 28th was .263/.313/.407 and he had a mere 33 unintentional walks in 535 plate appearances. That is a far cry from a player who had five consecutive seasons of walk rates at 10% or higher and came off of a career high 11.3% walk rate in 2010.

Damon's out-of-zone swing rate was 31.3% last year, eclipsing his career worst rate of 28.6% from the prior season and making his career mark of 21.6% look like an aberration. Not coincidentally his swinging-strike rate was a career worst at 8.1%, raising his career mark to only 6.0%. To be quite honest, the last person I wanted to see at the plate was Johnny Damon because he seemed to be reaching and hacking at pitches.

But, in a small sample size from August 29th until the end of the year Damon hit .250/.384/.477 with 17 unintentional walks in only 112 plate appearances. Was this just small sample size fate rearing its ugly head or was this Damon re-finding his approach and patience?

I honestly cannot answer that last question. There really are not a lot of viable options out there outside of dumpster diving and Damon, whether you place value in it or not, was a great clubhouse leader and perfect fit with the group of guys on the team.

At first glance I really did not want Damon back as a full-time designated hitter with the 2012 Rays but, after a longer look, if the Damon who surfaced in late August is the real Damon I would have no problem re-signing him to a one-year deal.

0 recs | 218 comments

Comments

It's very possible Damon was having a bad year.

And that he just needed to calm down. I loved watching Damon in September, he really stepped up. I haven’t looked at numbers, but if he can replicate that patience, I would consider his “clubhouse presence” valuable

d.russ - January 6, 2012 via mobile reply

I'm really hoping he can come somewhere close to what he did from August 29th and on when he started taking walks again.

I’d take that version of Damon in a heartbeat.

jcmitchell - January 6, 2012 reply

I'd be more than happy

to have Damon back in a Rays uniform in 2012.

MrNegative1 - January 6, 2012 reply

Wouldn't have said this during the season, but me too.

Maybe I’m just an optimist, but I think what we got last year was Damon’s floor, and many of the other options out there will have a lower floor. The rest of this team is talented enough that I’m loathe to risk it, and if Damon can bounce back, we’ll be sitting pretty.

Whelk - January 6, 2012 reply

I definitely never said it during the season.

I was ready to move on then I saw his 15.2% walk rate from August 29th and on and he hit 5 of his 16 HR and stol 7 of his 19 bases from that point on. I kept looking at his overall numbers and got tired of him chasing pitches that I was ready to say bye and let him chase 3000 hits elsewhere if it meant lacking the discipline he showed from the start of the season.

jcmitchell - January 6, 2012 reply

I think a lot of people, including AF, would be

But it has to be at the right price. $5.25 mil is not exorbitantly high but honestly for this team it is a lot of $$$. Yes, I realize he was worth about a million more than that last year in WAR, but this is not a team that can afford to pay free agents to perform “up to expectations.” We would be better served pumping that money into an extension, paying for a player acquired from a trade, etc. We operate on flex spending plans. So we would need to be a little smarter with our money.

Damon should be expected to contribute anywhere from 0.5 (further regress) to 2.5 (great year) WAR. For that, the Rays should pay according to the 25% percentile of his WAR expectation range and thus around $2 – $3 MM. Then it’s worth it.

elijah.dukes - January 6, 2012 reply

As per the Gecko

Any Damon contract longer than one year would surely put Geico back as a Rays sponsor.

bumbry - January 7, 2012 reply

I wouldnt be massively opposed BUT

For me, his age may be a factor. Declining numbers at his age flags up warning signals.

OneTonneBaby - January 6, 2012 reply

I would love Damon back. I know this will be attacked by the saber community but

Johnny Damon is a winner. Joe loves him at the plate and in the dugout and i’d love to see someone like Johnny get his 3000th hit as a Ray instead of the self promoting Wade Boggs

sternfan1 - January 6, 2012 reply

I loved Boggs getting it here. Hometown boy and great guy.

jcmitchell - January 6, 2012 reply

Eh, Damon is a decent option if there's nothing else better out there.

Which there possibly won’t be. He’ll come cheap and he’s a fan favorite, so I wouldn’t have a problem with resigning him…he’s just not nearly my first choice for our DH spot and I hope it doesn’t come to that. He’d likely end up being a 1 WAR player at DH, which certainly isn’t ideal.

My hope is that the Rays trade for a young first baseman, which would then give them enough flexibility to not need to sign a full-time DH. Not sure if that’s going to happen, though, so we’ll see.

Steve Slowinski - January 6, 2012 reply

That would be ideal but wasn't Damon was worth 1.5 fWAR last year? And he possibly re-found his discipline late in the year.

There just aren’t any options out there although I would love Branyan on the team in any capacity. The guy can actually play some good defense at 1B too.

jcmitchell - January 6, 2012 reply

I'm not as confident in the SSS thing.

Maybe he found his plate discipline again in August, but the fact is he’s getting old and it wouldn’t be unheard of for his discipline to slip. I prefer taking the season as a whole, because that’s what Damon is right now — a bit of the good and the bad. I see it bouncing up maybe a bit, but I’m just not confident it’ll go back up to his career norm.

At least, that’s my thought…you never know.

Steve Slowinski - January 6, 2012 reply

Completely understood.

I usually take that same stance but the big difference struck me differently. I don’t know, maybe it’s my lack of trust in other options out there and optimisitc view but I hope it’s not a SSS thing.

jcmitchell - January 6, 2012 reply

How does somone like Rizzo mean the Rays don’t need a DH? At least one of those two spots needs to be filled with a bat that can produce in 2012, right? Just don’t totally understand your thought process, but I’m probably missing something.

Michael Duncan - January 6, 2012 reply

I think it means the Rays could use the DH as a revolving door to keep players fresh, especially on long roadtrips and long homestands on turf.

It would allow Maddon to DH Joyce and play and OF of Fuld, Jennings, Upton against RHP or play Guyer in RF and DH Canzler against LHP.

jcmitchell - January 6, 2012 reply

Like option

Revolving door works Fuld, Guyer and Canzler into more playing time and allow resources to go after a more attractive option at 1B. Have moved toward this option. That being said, Damon has is a winner who has contributed. True professional with a veteran presence that can’t be underestimated.

RayJzone - January 6, 2012 reply

I'm not sure 'veteran presence' can be estimated at all.

Hatfield - January 6, 2012 via mobile reply

I wonder how the Bucs feel about their experiment last year with no 'veteran presence'?

RayJzone - January 6, 2012 reply

This is an excellent analogy.

Hatfield - January 6, 2012 reply

Football are baseball are equal things.

Vin - January 6, 2012 reply

one doesn't prohibit the other

Actually, acquiring a young 1B makes it easier for the Rays to take on a full-time DH, because they can rotate others to that position for a day off and allow their bench a game to start in the OF or INF. Positional flexibility and the emergence of another awesome outfielder in Jennings makes it easier for the Rays to not need positional flexibility from a DH. It would be nice if he can make a spot start somewhere, but not necessary.

raysfaninminnesota - January 6, 2012 reply

The Rays are set up to cover nearly any injury on the team

Guyer can step in for an OF injury. SP and RP injuries can be covered by awesome depth in AAA. Chirinos can step in for a C injury. The only major issue is INF, which explains why the Rays are interested in Eric Chavez to be the next Willy Aybar/Dan Johnson, etc. It also explains the Rays interest in Ryan Theriot whether mlb or milb deal. It’s also why it’s nice that Beckham is in AAA. Friedman always loves depth and injury insurance, and with the right small move or two, the Rays could have the best depth of any team in baseball.

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