DRaysBay

I know

It’s almost too nice. Since Torres isn’t ready to start in MLB, I don’t think we’re 8 deep. We are 7 deep with Torres and Archer closing in.

Fact remains odds are very high that one of these guys is leaving and that’s usually because of money with us. Not this time.

yea the depth is nice but so is the quality

I mean just off the top of my head thinking of win totals I could see
Price 16-18
Shields 16-18
Helly 16-18
Moore 16-18
Davis 12-15

and any of the top 4 I wouldn’t be suprised at all to see win 20 games and Davis or Niemann could easily win 15. There isn’t a rotation in baseball that can claim that quality of depth.

*I know wins/losses is a horrible way to judge a pitcher

but for this argument it is an easy way to get the point across.

I hear ya

Cobb would make a run at 15 also if he was in the rotation all year.

I wonder when the last time a rotation had 4 guys with sub 3 ERA's and 15+ wins

if the big 4 stay together I think they could make a run at it.

I think we will have that big 4 for only this year sadly

It will be fun in 2012 but after the season, Price or Shields will probably leave unless of course Price is signed long term somehow. Shields, I can actually see him giving a discount to add years to his deal, he seems to actually like Tampa.

Wins and Losses

…is absolutely NOT a horrible way to judge a pitcher. It is one of several tools you should use in evaluating your starting pitchers. After all, the primary mission of every starter is to outduel his opponent. If you have a pitcher whose W-L is inferior to his peripherals, it could mean he falls short in competitiveness. Especially if this goes on for 2-3 years.

cocanat - January 4, 2012 reply

Stop it

Erik Hahmann - January 4, 2012 reply

he stated why he thought it was valuable, what did you say of substance in retort?

“Stop it”

Monkeyking42 - January 6, 2012 reply

I'm going to have to disagree with you here

if a guy goes out and throws a 20K 1 hitter and loses 1-0, he shouldn’t be punished because his offense sucks. Likewise a guy who gets shelled and goes 5 IP allowing 7 runs but wins 8-7 shouldn’t get rewarded.

That's a pretty extreme example

So you would use that example to disagree that W-L for starting pitchers is “one of several” tools you should use in evaluating your starters?"

cocanat - January 4, 2012 reply

Why don't you give one reason why wins and losses is a GOOD tool.

It's an interesting number to look at.

Much like “strikeouts with bases loaded in June”, but it would be difficult to defend its use as much of an evaluation tool.

Hatfield - January 4, 2012 reply

Interesting doesn't make it good.

But I know you know that.

mr. maniac - January 5, 2012 reply

A Pitchers's primary mission....

…is not ‘to outduel is opponent.’ It’s to get outs. Outdueling an opponent is what happens when the primary mission is met.

themiddle54 - January 4, 2012 reply

Good point

but I would change “get outs” to “prevent runs.” Semantics.

cocanat - January 4, 2012 reply

Wins and losses

are team stats, not pitcher stats. Otherwise you are implying that a pitcher can pitch to the score. That is the claim made by many who hype Jack Morris for the HOF, and it has been conclusively debunked.

It is certainly possible that some pitchers may have problems when they have to bear down or that some are remarkably competitive-out of the ordinary even for a major leaguer. But to use wins and losses to conclude something about a particular pitcher is simplifying to the point of absurdity.

I doubt, for example, that anyone thinks Nolan Ryan lost his competitive fire in 1987 when, despite peripherals among the best in the game that year, traditional stats credited him with just 8 wins and 16 losses.

bobr - January 4, 2012 reply

sadly something to factor in to that is the amount of run support each pitcher garners

germanshepard44 - January 4, 2012 reply

This is the kind of thing that makes me think something is wrong with WAR

Jeremy Hellickson
Fan Projection: 13-10, 3.46 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 7.14 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 2.6 WAR
2011 line: 13-10, 2.95 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 5.57 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, 1.4 WAR

Hellickson was only worth 1.4 WAR?? Was he really only worth $4.4 million more than a minor-league replacement pitcher last year? You’re telling me that Boston or New York would not have paid $10-$15 million last year to have a pitcher like Hellickson in their rotation?

If the market is $4 million/win for a player, it must be much higher for a pitcher. If there is an article on this, I’d like to read it.

yea WAR is a very valuable tool but it isn't perfect

that is why it is important to look at everything including the eye test IMO instead of locking your mind on a spreadsheet. Hellickson last year wasn’t as good as his traditional stat line read, but wasn’t as bad as his spreadsheet did. I think everyone is going to be very pleased with him this year.

It was mostly because he didn't really strike anyone out and he's a flyball pitcher

WAR was giving most of the credit for his success to the defense, essentially. I think that his minor league track records shows that he should improve, as does his swinging strike rate next year.

Barnacles - January 4, 2012 reply

he never has been a huge fly ball pitcher in the past if I remember

I wonder if last year he was focusing on pitching to contact especially at home. Looking at his splits he threw a ton of strikes at home, he only threw 1 more strike on the road than at home, while throwing 94 more balls on the road.

He's been a flyball pitcher in the upper minors

With his primary off-speed pitch being a change up that make sense. I think DRaysBay did an article on Hellickson getting squeezed by the umps – that may have contributed to some of his difficulty this year, even though in terms of results he still succeeded though that may have been due to luck/defense/park factors.

In terms of peripherals he pitched like Wade Davis.

Barnacles - January 4, 2012 reply

Errr...$5.6 million, still seems low.

Is there anyway to show that a pitcher can control his BABIP independent of GB/FB ratio?

It's because Helly's peripheral stats in 2011 were kinda ugly, actually.

He had a shiny ERA and got the wins, but he didn’t pitch nearly as well as that ERA suggested.

And nah, the market is relatively the same $/WAR for pitchers and hitters. Relievers are funky, but that’s the only big caveat.

Steve Slowinski - January 4, 2012 reply

ROTY though seems like you would need to be at least 2-3 WAR

It shows you how much perception plays into the awards.
His demeanor and consistency need to have some sort of value. Consistency especially. Edwin Jackson was 3.8 WAR and A.J. Burnett was 1.5 WAR. Were either of these players better than Hellickson last year? They are very inconsistent. Does WAR account for quality starts, or variation from game to game?

Blame that on the voters, not his performance.

Steve Slowinski - January 4, 2012 reply

What's amazing is that Hellickson has consistenly had a low BABIP and he has been a flyball pitcher.

It does make you wonder if some guys (like Helly) can force hits to the corners for easier plays from the outfielders, or possibly to center to avoid HRs, thereby controlling their BABIP.

well what I've noticed from watching Hellickson in the minors and in the majors

is that while his stuff is not flashy, he has pin point control in that he paints the corners (where the Maddux comps come from) making it very difficult for hitters to square up so they rarely make solid contact. I’d be interested in knowing how many of Hellickson’s fly balls are end of the bat or jam shots that are just lazy fly balls to shallow OF.

His BB rate completely denies this.

actually not really, Maddux had very high BB rates early in his career too

when you work the corners you are going to have a couple problems one being tight strikezones, which he faced a lot last year and the other is, especially at a young age you aren’t going to be 100% consistent and on the days when you don’t have your ace stuff you still try to work those corners and it leads to some 4-5 walk outings which inflates your BB totals (last year he had 9 outings of 4+ BB). He will as he matures, like Maddux did hopefully start getting more corners and learn that when he doesn’t have his best command he will have to work more in the zone opposed to on the corners.

Maddux had one year of bad/mediocre command.

Hellickson does try to be too fine. That isn’t a very positive aspect though, unless we are assuming he follows the same career paths as one of the best pitchers ever.

WAR is also a cumulative stat, not a rate stat, so that adds to the discrepancy of position players' WAR vs. pitchers' WAR..

Is this finally the year Upton breaks out

I think so. I strongly believe he hits 30+ homers and steals 50+ bases.

Peter Piontek - January 4, 2012 reply

When you say break out and add in those numbers

I’m thinking about some allergic reaction to steroids.

bumbry - January 4, 2012 reply

more likely this year than any, no injuries last year and playing for a contract now. We've seen what that did for CC..

I know this is not relevant to this post

But what would you guys say to a trade with the Yankees where the main pieces moving are Price and Montero? Obviously this would never happen, but as an exchange of values and desired commodities?

XrayYankeeZulu - January 4, 2012 reply

I wouldn't say never but highly unlikely

mainly because I’m not convinced Montero can stay behind the plate and we aren’t going to trade Price for a DH

Not even close.

It would take Montero and Banuelos +1 i would think.

Peter Piontek - January 4, 2012 reply

There "3 B's" were all overrated

They already cut Brackman. I don’t think the other 2 will be anything more than an average pitcher…with control issues.

Yeah it's Yankee prospect syndrome.

Peter Piontek - January 4, 2012 reply

I'd do Price+Fleming for Montero+Banuelos and a C+.

*C+ hitting prospect that is.

if you are looking a trading a pitcher to the yankees I could see more likely a deal

like Torres for Nunez and Romine.

You'd want Fleming

Ben Tumbling - January 4, 2012 reply

Maybe Cobb, too.

Price to the Yankees? WTF

The result of this trade would be Price striking Montero out for the next decade….The Rays have a desire to win….and won’t trade a Cy Young level pitcher to our biggest rival, regardless of the cost. Outside the division to for a power hitting C/1B I can easily believe

Moorewinsplease - January 4, 2012 reply

I think the whole don't trade in the division thing is over-rated

yes we would be giving them Price and would have to face him (in this example) but at the same time we would be preventing them from having Montero, Betances, Banuelos, Nunez (whatever it would take)