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The Rays Tanks: The Lucrative Television Deal Strikes Again

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 23: Edwin Jackson #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches in the fifth inning during Game Four of the MLB World Series against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on October 23, 2011 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Rob Carr - Getty Images

7 months ago: ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 23: Edwin Jackson #22 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches in the fifth inning during Game Four of the MLB World Series against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on October 23, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Things were quiet over the holidays, but that doesn't mean nothing has happened; in fact, these past few days have been quite full of interesting rumors and news. Carlos Quentin got dealt to the San Diego Padres for a bag of balls and some bubble gum -- okay, the prospects involved have some value, but it just seems strange -- and I really don't know what their plan is in Chicago. Rebuild? Compete? A bit of both? They seem stuck somewhere in the middle, and that's not normally a good place to be.

But anyway, the more exciting news (to me, at least) had to do with two Scott Boras clients: Edwin Jackson is seeking a 5 year, $60 million deal, and the Nationals are looking like the favorites to land Prince Fielder. The Jackson deal is lulz worthy, until you start considering that he's been worth over 3.5 WAR each of the last three seasons and he's only going to be 28 years old next season. He seems like a risky player to sign to that long of a contact, especially considering his heavy reliance on the slider. But at the same time, he's a good pitcher and he's possibly underrated by most due to how long it took him to establish himself in the majors. Boras normally gets what he wants (or somewhat close to it), so I'm curious which team is going to take the plunge.

As for Fielder, you may ask yourself: how can the Nationals afford to go after one of the largest free agents of the season, especially with Jayson Werth's deal already on the books? The answer: a new television deal that will significantly increase their revenue streams. Sound familiar? Damn, it seems like the Rays are going to be one of the last teams to get a new deal at this point.

There hasn't been any Rays news recently, so let's hit up some other cool links quickly:

  • FanGraphs introduced a new filter on their leaderboards: Active Roster. Now you can sort by only players that are on a team's 40 man roster (although it doesn't show players that haven't played in the majors yet). Right now, here's the Rays 40-man roster...pretty nifty that you can see Molina and Badenhop on this, eh?
  • Chris Jaffe at The Hardball Times released his projections for this year's Hall of Fame voting results. He was pretty close with all his projections last season (within 3 percentage points), so his results are probably a good estimate of what to expect this year. According to him, only Barry Larkin will get voted in.
  • Along those lines, there's a thread at Baseball Think Factory that's keeping track of all the publicly released HoF ballots so far and compiling the results. So far, Larkin is at 93%, with Jack Morris and Tim Raines polling in the low 60s. I'm glad to see the Jeff Bagwell (58%) is getting more love so far this year, but we'll have to see how that holds up.
  • Tango is offering a class in sabermetrics, if anyone out there is interesting. It won't come cheap, but it also sounds like a sweet opportunity.
  • BurGi at Rays Prospects has been doing roster projections for each level of the Rays' minor league system, and he hit on shortstop and second base recently. If you want to find more position projections, check out Rays Prospects - most of the articles can still be found on the main page.

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Comments

Television deal

I can think of few teams that would benefit more from a sweet television deal than the Bay Rays. And it’s a shame too because their production values are so high and so professional. I love watching their games when I am in Florida in the summer. Comparing their product to the Marlins broadcast is the difference from a Mercedes to a Yugo.

Maybe the Rays and Marlins should team up

to form a Pan-Florida television network.

If they play at the same time, the broadcasted game would be the one with the highest attendance!
And the most aquatic creatures contained in MLB ballpark aquariums!
Hope you like Jose Reyes!
Coco Crisp going back to Oakland??

So sayeth Bowden on Twitter. I can’t believe he’d want to return there by choice

he is a california native

and i truly wonder how much else he really had going on the FA market…seems like he was a lot of teams 3 choice.

Good read on the stadium situation

http://is.gd/8DbZkF

Nats are going to have Zimmerman a deal worth around 20 mil a year pretty soon

I don’t know how crazy owners are about having 3 guys making 20+ million a year at the same time. Outside of New York anyway.

phils do it

People really underestimate the DC market. It’ll be top 5 once they start winning.

also, I'm not sure Zimmerman is headed for a $20MM+ payday

If Ramirez gets $12MM and Beltre $16MM on the open market, I’m not sure that augurs for an extension that’s 25% above market. All bets are off if David Wright gets $20MM+ in free agency, though, which I could see happening.

Potent potables

Edwin Jackson the last two years has put up a K/9, BB/9, GB/FB line of (7.26, 3.09, 1.47). When you look at other starting pitchers in both the NL and AL who have pitched 150 or more innings, the ten closest comparables are none other than…

1. Ryan Vogelsong (6.99, 3.14, 1.34)
2. Derek Holland (7.61, 3.2, 1.3)
3. Chris Narveson (7.25, 3.3, 1.05)
4. Ricky Romero (7.28, 3.35, 1.9)
5. John Danks (6.97, 2.72, 1.18)
6. Jeff Niemann (6.79, 2.86, 1.21)
7. Jonathon Niese (7.78, 2.89, 1.65)
8. Jaime Garcia (7.24, 2.87, 2.03)
9. Ervin Santana (6.92, 2.89, 0.98)
10. Brett Myers (6.93, 2.53, 1.41)

Not exactly the most gangbusters of a group, but he’s probably worth close to what he is asking for.

As far as Tom Tango’s class. My first thoughts were, wow that is pretty expensive and how are they going to cover all of those complex topics in just 20+ hours. But there is nobody more qualified to run a class like this that’s for sure even though a lot of the material is probably available online for free.

BOOOOOOO
According to MASN’s Roch Kubatko, 11 teams are currently expressing interest in free agent Luke Scott.
Scott was non-tendered by the Orioles last month after batting just .220/.301/.402 with nine home runs and 22 RBI across 236 plate appearances in 2011. He’s also coming off July shoulder surgery. Teams are likely viewing him as a low-risk, high-reward type of free agent signing, but with so much interest he might not come cheap.

Welcome back, Damon.

I'm still bitter about the Rays passing on Quentin for scraps
He refuses to DH

Yes, he will play some games there but we would only want him as a full time DH.

Source?

I’ve never seen this. I haven’t seen anyone report on this, and Quentin has DHed in Chicago each of the last three years.

As far as I can tell, the Rays just missed the boat on this one.

All this means is no milb deal

Rays might need to offer a incentive-laden deal, but this is a guy who has never made more than 6.4 million in a season. With injury and health uncertainty, the most he’ll probably get is Damon money. So my guess is 3 mil guaranteed, with 3 mil in incentives, with some sort of team controlled 2nd yr option with a decent salary and decent buyout (so, 2 year, 10-12 million dollar contract? 1st yr 3 mil w/ 3 in incentives…2nd yr 6 mil, with a 1-2 mil buyout).

that’s not out of the Rays price range.

i think that's way under what he'll get.
Agreed.

Somebody has the money to throw at him and take chance.

a guy coming off shoulder surgery who will be turning 34 next year?

He was never great defensively, never hit for a huge average, what Scott brings to the table is power, and depending upon the health of his shoulder he may not be able to do that next year. I can’t see a guy at his age, with his health issues getting more than a 2 year deal. Maybe I’m wrong, but DH’s don’t make what they used it. I’d be shocked if he got more than 2/12.

Batted .336 in 2006 in almost half a season.

Does that count?

the quintin trade frees up the pads to move a corner bat even more
i don't see any way they keep quentin, that acquisition made such little sense outside of the fact that they acquired a more valuable trade chip than the scraps they gave up for him.
They'll probably just flip him for more than they traded for him

and look super-smart in the process.

ill take him as part of a rizzo package
this is what i'm hoping/expecting, davis + B-/C+ for Rizzo/Quentin
Never give up

Next month after Quentin signs his multi-year contract extension with SD, maybe they will call in AF and youse guys to see if it meets with your approval.

Nats' share a local TV network with the Orioles

So if Washington gets a bigger cut of the action, Baltimore will be significantly poorer. Not that the Orioles know what to do with money anyway, but there’s your AL East/Rays connection to the news.

Angelos owns part of MASN

so he benefits either way. Whether that finds its way back into the pockets of Orioles players is your guess.

Angelos doesn't benefit from money he's paying to the Nats.

The O’s are a terrible team with a nearly barren farm system in a shrinking market. Contraction anyone?

The Orioles own the majority of MASN...

MASN is going to pay the Nats a number that they can make a health profit at, just as MASN is going to give the O’s a nice number when their deal is up.

I do not expect a charter franchise of the AL to get contracted, let alone any franchise.

The point is that MASN's revenue is relatively fixed

and they are about to have to pay the Nats a lot more money for their rights. Therefore the MASN profits that were flowing to Angelos/Orioles will be reduced.

Not a difficult concept to grasp.

How are MASN's revenues fixed?

They have dual revenue streams. Where are the Nationals going to go? They can’t shop their product on the open market as they are a partner in MASN. Having the product of Nats games gives the MASN the inventory to sell ads during the game as well as the leverage of carriage fees. So while, MASN may agree to pay the Nationals more for their TV rights, the Nats are participating in that too. Also, once the Time Warner carriage dispute is resolved the Orioles will be keeping 87 cents for every dollar that it brings in.

I don't really understand what your argument is here.

Angelos doesn’t pay money for MASN; he has a majority stake in it, plus favorable concessions from the state of Maryland and MLB related to his acquiescence in allowing MLB to expand to Washington, D.C.

Thus, even if MASN’s coverage is skewing towards the Nationals, Angelos still benefits. That’s my original point.

P.S. there is no chance that the Orioles are going to be contracted. There is no chance any team is going to be contracted, but even less that it would be Baltimore.

I'd love if we not only got Rizzo from the Pads, but one of their Relievers as well.

Luke Gregerson, Ernesto Frieri, and Anthony Bass come to mind. What if we sent them Davis, DDLR and Ruggiano for Rizzo and any one of those three?

I'm okay with Frieri or Gregerson

but I wouldn’t want to screw up a Davis-for-Rizzo deal by insisting the Padres throw in a reliever as well. Not sure that they’d have any interest in DDLR or Ruggiano, although oddly enough I could see them wanting Elliot Johnson.

Yeah, they probably don't even need Ruggiano.

Maybe a Dietrich/Bortnick type guy?

I wouldn't give up Dietrich for a reliever

Davis for Rizzo straight up, I like, and I think it’s fair for both sides.

Seeing how the team matches up with the Padres for Gregerson (who’s headed to arbitration and coming off of a pretty bad season for him) also strikes me as a good idea. I’m really high on Dietrich (and higher than most on Bortnick), so I’m not sure I would go there, but I would be willing to part with a fringe-top-25 prospect (C.J. Riefenhauser?).

Sounds good to me.

My thinking is we (hopefully) sign Pena, then acquire a RP via trade. I just think we need more help in the bullpen, to help ot Farnsy, who I’m nervous about with his elbow troubles.

I don't see Pena happening

He’s looking at $12MM+ on a one-year deal, but more likely a multi-year one. Quentin would have been a great fit at half the price, and the Rays for some reason couldn’t/didn’t get in on it.

Another shutdown arm for the bullpen would be nice, but I have to say that it looks pretty good from where I sit: Farnsworth, Peralta, McGee, Gomes, Badenhop, Howell as a lefty specialist, and then one more arm from a pretty talented pool of guys (Torres, Lueke, De la Rosa, Ramos). I’d be okay if the Rays solve their 1B and DH problems and don’t make a huge splash with a reliever; I’d hate it if they added a reliever and limped into the season without upgrading at 1B and DH.

This is spot on. The pen is fine and all but set.
All dependng on if we are going "all in".

If the Rays are willing to spend $60M or more than I can see us in the mix for Pena, easily. I’m sure they see the same thing we do: Most of the players on the team are getting more expensive and might have to be traded soon. This is the year to go for it if we can. I’d even say this is our best chance at the World Series for the next few years. Do you see Shields, Price, Upton, or Zobrist being on the team in 2016? Honestly, I think only 2 of those guys will be on the team next year.

It’s tough being a smaller market team—it seems like it’s always building for the future, but the future doesn’t come. I’m not saying we aren’t a top team, because we clearly are. The ultimate goal is to win the World Series, and if the FO is bold enough to say we are going for it in 2012, then I’m in. That is what I want to see.

Why weren't we a WS team last year but the Cards were?
The Rangers helped us with that.

Maybe we can figure out how to beat them and zoom through the rest of the playoffs. Yes, zoom.

because the playoffs are a crapshoot

but I use “playoff contender” to describe a team you’d expect to win ~90 games and be in contention for the playoffs, versus “World Series contender” to describe a team that you’d expect to win ~95 games, make the playoffs and be favored to go deep.

That’s a real difference. Sometimes your “World Series contenders” come up short (cough, cough, Boston last year), but I think the difference between, say, the Cardinals and the Phillies last year was pretty stark.

I think the Rays are, right now with tweaks, a “playoff contender.” I think it wouldn’t be hard for them to be a “World Series contender” — but I’m sort of puzzled that they bailed on a key opportunity to move into those ranks by passing on Quentin.

dietrich and bortnick are not the same type of guy
I just threw minor-league infielders' names out there.

As long as they aren’t serious, big-time prospects, I’m fine with trading one for a back-end bullpen guy. I just don’t trust Farnsworth to get through the season, as negative as it sounds.

Did you say Elliot Johnson???

The SD FO wants to move this discussion outside.

They seem to like Zumaya, so if they added him and DDLR, they should be fine parting with one of their current relievers.
That might be why we haven't already made a deal

Anyone can pitch in Petco. Almost anyone, I wouldn’t trust Sonny there so I’m not sure how bad they want a SP. They probably want Lee just like all their fans are saying.

Rizzo almost has to go, I can see them trading him for a Wade Davis type guy.
from Szymborski's ESPN column today
The Rays will likely spend the rest of the winter making a few low-key moves, with Pena the best replacement for Kotchman left in the market. Tampa Bay didn’t pull the trigger on any trades during the winter meetings, but it’s still likely as the Rays have a surplus of talent. With San Diego accumulating first basemen for some reason, it may be a good opportunity to snag Anthony Rizzo in a buy-low opportunity that would be consistent with the team’s moves in the past.

They should probably at least call the Giants about Brandon Belt, given that team’s baffling fascination with Brett Pill, though that’s a long shot.
As much as he's talked about, it feels odd not to see Rizzo on the depth chart already.
Here's hoping Anthony Rizzo starts the season with the Bulls!
Belt

Much rather deal for Belt than Rizzo, Last years experience was good for him. I feel like he’s closer to being a productive big leaguer.

I I would give up a solid amount more for Belt over Rizzo.

don't see how Belt is available, but I love that guy
I don't see how we match up either.
Not everyone is psychic

Neither did BJ.

anyone know how much the rays make a season off their current tv deal? and when does this deal expire?
It's in the 20s, ends in 2016
Just in time to give Longo a new deal!
for comparison sake, the nats are now going to be making around 60 (if i read that article right?), could we expect a similar payout for the rays.

as far as i’ve always read, we are one of the top 1/3 tv rating teams in mlb, anyone care to proffer a guess on what impact a new tv deal could have for what this team spends on payroll each season?

We're a good comp to Seattle & Pitt

I’d user those as a base

Pretty sure Deadspin leaked docs

Had the Rays tv AND radio revenue around $13 million in 2008

that's almost as bad as what you'd expect from the Alabama Rays
But the contracts reset in 2009 I thought

Or was I mistaken

Remember that 11 man staff thread?
According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, some teams are interested in Rich Harden as a reliever.
Harden would probably prefer to remain a starter, but his free-agent options are far from plentiful and he might have to settle for a bullpen job if no team comes forward with a rotation spot.

You never know

I hope he's a fall-back option.

I’m really hoping we can get some help in the back of the pen, whether it’s a Free Agent or in a trade. Honestly, I only see Harden as an innings-eater type guy, and some other team can do better than that.

As far as bullpens go, it doesn't get much better than Rich Harden at this point

His issue is you can’t use him too often, probably never back to back days or he will be on the DL.

This is of course assuming we don’t break the bank for Ryan Madson, that seems safe to assume.

I still think we can do better.

I’d rather sign Ayala, but that’s just me. Getting Rizzo plus Gregerson/Frieri/Bass is #1 on my list, though.

What about Trumbo and Conger?

An Ayala type is going be very cheap anyway, Gregerson is going to wind up costing too much, prospect wise.

For example, what would the Rays need to trade to get Rizzo, Quentin and Gregerson? Or Rizzo, Gregerson and Blanks? I think his addition raises the price too much.

I really like the idea of Conger, Trumbo is just buying high.

For Rizzo, Quentin, and Gregerson? Davis, Beckham, Barnese, and Bortnick. That’s just off the top of my head without much thought.

Conger

If we are really interested in Theriot, and have faith in Brignac, is Sean-Rod for conger good? Maybe a bit of an overpay?

I like the Sean Rod for a break out in 2012

And no, I have no reason to believe that, I just think he will. They continue to pick up starters to not give Conger playing time, he shouldn’t cost that much. Key word is “shouldn’t”

Founded in 2005, DRaysBay is home to, "Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."
lol
The Toronto Blue Jays both traded for Jason Frasor and signed left-hander Darren Oliver over the holiday weekend, reports MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm. Frasor, 34, and Oliver, 57, both profile to post above-average xFIP-s and join Sergio Santos in a Blue Jay bullpen that has been strengthened (pretty affordably) over the winter after being mostly lost to trade at least year’s deadline.
the ageless wonder, Darren Oliver
Typo

I think he actually meant 67

Ha. I read past the "typo" because it felt correct
Who sees a Rizzo deal going down this week?

I do, now I just hope it’s to us.

My ideal offseason:

Sign Pena (we are going all in by the way)
Trade Davis, DDLR and Bortnick for Rizzo and Gregerson.
Trade Sean-Rod for Conger (maybe a bit of an overpay)
Trade Lobaton for Shelley Duncan
Let Guyer play RF and Joyce DH.
Sign Jonny Gomes for bench depth.

This could change any day now, but this is my think as of today. But of course, one move will be made to screw up this whole thing. Like Fielder to the Nats. That would make the Cubs want either Pena or Rizzo even more, and are likely to land one of them.

Also, IF Sean-Rod is traded, and we ARE interested in Theriot, I see us signing him to go along with Brignac.
Sign Pena (we are going all in to the dugout when we strike out 7,000 times)

Sign Jonny Gomes for bench depth. (really?)

Brandon Belt Barter

Although he may come cheaper every passing day, I don’t like the Anthony Rizzo option at 1B. Isn’t it better to bite the bullet for Brandon Belt? The SF outfield depth chart is a mess. Belt is actually pencilled in as the only left fielder. Let’s offer BJ. We could then put Guyer, Fuld and Canzler to better use and free up salary space for another move. Maybe SF would also throw in a Javier Lopez too. I know we are expecting greatness in his contract year, but then again we’re talking about BJ.

Huff is penciled in the OF

They plan to play Belt at 1B and either way, remove Upton and add Belt, even if you don’t believe Upton will have a huge year, how much, if any of a upgrade is this?

SF Giants

i see some sort of weird platoon going on between LF/RF and 1B. Also Belt may spend some time in AAA. The Giants are very high on Brett Pill right now and he may have a big part of the huff/belt situation.

The Giants offense is a mess right now and they have made some foolish allocations of money in both lopez and affeldt…plus i really dont know why the rays would be interested in lopez at 2/9 million.

Whoops

Only saw the 2 not the 9. OK, something else then.

The depth chart on Yahoo is always right

First of all, we need to find a spot for Guyer. We get another lefty bat with power we can put at 1B that may provide huge returns as years go by. This assumes all we get in return is Belt and don’t use the added salary space.

It would be a major upgrade at 1b, and if Guyer is any good, there might not be much of a downgrade at CF.

It’s kind of like the Garza trade. We didn’t get anything that was a huge upgrade right away, but Hellickson slid right in.

So which is better? BJ/Des/Joyce OF with a crap 1b option or Guyer/Des/Joyce OF with Belt at 1b?

There’s more moving parts in these trades than just the players involved, and sometimes even without gaining an offensive upgrade, it can still be a net win. Now, Guyer would have to be pretty good, but I think he can be, yet many don’t. So who knows in this case?

"but then again we’re talking about BJ."

Please explain. Not sure what you mean here.

Crisp getting 2 years/14 million can't help our market...

Then again, if we get Rizzo and Damon to plug the holes, they will still be cheap.

If Crisp can get 14M

BJ next year could easily get 60-80M next year

It could work if they give it a chance

I mean, putting Jennings in CF and Guyer in LF next year. Upton is the next life time Ray that will leave but it shouldn’t mean that we need an OF right away. And hopefully, people are right and Mahtook will move quickly through the system.

I'm sure he will

He was one of the best college hitters that year.

this is immediately what I thought when I saw the Crisp deal
BJ is the best FA position player for 2013 too

Depending on how you view Napoli and Hamilton.

Victorino, Swisher, Bourn are good too, but BJ has an age advantage.

hamilton is better if not more frail and psychotic
Better today, yes

But weighing age+injury history, it’s close

If I'm the Nats I pass on Fielder and wait on BJ and one of the big name SP next year
Crisp

has averaged 104 games per season over his 10 year career…never playing more than 145…he is 32 with speed and defense as his only attributes…he is honestly worth 4 million per year and the A’s over paid. but then again they had Reddick and Michael Taylor playing all three positions so they had to do something.

Kendrys Morales for ptbnl?

if this happened, how long would the two teams have to decide on the return? Like if Morales was deemed healthy angels could get max return agreed upon but if his health was still in question, they would get lesser value in return. Could this happen, with the ptbnl being decided in spring training?

Can they wait a full season or is there some rule against that?

I’m fine with the Angels getting a list of players that they can choose from if certain numbers are reached. AF isn’t dumb, there wont be any top prospects on that list..

Get creative

Maybe the FO can throw in the rights to all the offspring of Baldelli too.

Just looked it up

Teams have 6 months to decide who the ptbnl is.

yes, they can absolutely do this
I dont see why they dont do this

It seems like a win win for both sides and minimizes risk. Angels dont have to worry about selling low and rays dont have to worry about buying a lemon. If morales is healthy and productive, I doubt they would have an issue giving up a good prospect.

Don't put any calls through this week unless it's from the Rays

Gee, we should really bend over backwards to help out those guys who were nice enough to let us have Kazmir.

I doubt if anyone will trade anything(even a PTBNL) for a guy who has not played in 19 months

Especially not now. Possibly if he shows he is healthy by the middle of ST when a team(including the Angels) knows that he will be capable of contributing by the beginning of the season. Plus you would want to know what you are getting for the 3 million he is likely to make over in arbitration

you expect a raise in arbitration?
Well he made 2.9 last year(thru arbitration) and I don't see him being offered much less because he was injured..

At the least, I don’t think he can be offered less than 2.4 million.

I'm just not sure how he wins any arbitration case
Reed Johnson was an interesting guy

Great D, decent bat. I’m assuming the Rays don’t carry Guyer as a bench player so Johnson might of been an upgrade over a Ruggiano.

Signed with the Cubs, no?

Also, he’s not the same fielder he used to be.

also, never a fan of buying a guy after his outlier half-season

but yeah: he signed with the Cubs

Just sign Fielder

The team could make it work if everyone commenting on this site agreed to a couple of extra season tickets in a 10 year package. As a bonus, any person using 2 season tickets for a single entry, I’m pretty sure the Rays will install an extra wide reclining seat.

bumbry, you're a promising new poster. please elaborate on your thoughts on BJs attitude, though.
warning: troll bait ahead
andrew torrez, future moderator.
Justin seems to be the perfect superstar role model

Attitude doesn’t mean much unless you can correlate it with WAR.

that's why i asked for your honest opinion. WAR don't measure attitude but it's obs very important.
Rays sign Fernando Rodney (?)

1 year/$2MM according to twitter. I don’t get this, unless the Rays are seriously concerned about Farnsworth’s elbow and want a backup nominal closer type so as to define roles in the bullpen.

Don't mind the player, but care about the 2mil
not happy about either
Don't complain if you haven't read the contract

Rodney is also responsible for the towels in both locker rooms.

This is just depth to me also. Hopefully he can bounce back.

2 million isn’t much in MLB terms and i’m not sure anyone has come out and said we can’t add to last years payroll. I’d love to see us get into the 65-70 million range.

Lets get more details first

A guaranteed RP contract doesn’t really fit the team right now, especially for an average guy.

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