In the same vein as this and this, I've done early napkin projections for the big 3 of the AL East. I opted to not project bullpens at all, given how volatile relievers are, and I know the bench projections are somewhat lazy. They're fairly conservative predictions, but even though some players may slightly over-perform the predicted numbers, a few will drastically underperform them (due to injury, or general ineffectiveness), so for teams as a whole, they should be relatively accurate. Some random notes after the jump.
| TB | WAR | NY | WAR | BOS | WAR | |
| C | Molina/Chirinos | 1 | Martin | 3.5 | Saltalamacchia | 3 |
| 1B | Pena/Canzler | 2 | Teixeira | 5 | Gonzalez | 6 |
| 2B | Zobrist | 6 | Cano | 5.5 | Pedroia | 6.5 |
| SS | Rodriguez/Brignac | 1 | Jeter | 2.5 | Aviles/Punto | 2 |
| 3B | Longoria | 7 | Rodriguez | 5.5 | Youkilis | 4.5 |
| LF | Jennings | 4 | Gardner | 5 | Crawford | 3.5 |
| CF | Upton | 4 | Granderson | 6 | Ellsbury | 6.5 |
| RF | Joyce/Guyer | 4 | Swisher | 4 | Sweeney | 1 |
| DH | Scott | 1.5 | Revolving Door | 1 | Ortiz | 3 |
| Bench | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Total | 31.5 | 39 | 37 | |||
| S1 | Shields | 4.5 | Sabathia | 6 | Lester | 4 |
| S2 | Price | 4 | Pineda | 3 | Beckett | 4 |
| S3 | Moore | 2.5 | Nova | 2 | Bard | 2 |
| S4 | Niemann | 2 | Garcia | 1.5 | Buchholz | 1.5 |
| S5 | Hellickson | 1.5 | Burnett | 1.5 | Lackey | 1.5 |
| Total | 14.5 | 14 | 13 | |||
| Total Total | 46 | 53 | 50 |
Discuss!
0 recs | 185 comments
Lackey will not be pitching in 2012
Also Brett Gardner’s projection seems overly optimistic to me. Have i been sleeping ? How is he a 5 WAR player?
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Garder had a 5.2 WAR in 2011 and 4.4 WAR in 2011
Yes he can be a 5 WAR player in 2012.
rickrays - January 29, 2012
Gardner that is
rickrays - January 29, 2012
Apparently i was sleeping
I still don’t see him as the 3rd most valuable outfielder on these 3 teams.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Why not?
mr. maniac - January 29, 2012
an OPS+ of 89 and wOBA of .330 which is just above average.
his defense is good to great though.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
His defense is elite.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Fair enough but we could say the same about Deezy.
he looked pretty damn good in left last year.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Maybe.
But Gardner’s been off the UZR charts for 2 years now.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Can't argue with that.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
I hope Jennings is that good
but it’s doubtful.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Only thing is that I can't completely trust UZR
It certainly seems to have flaws but i’m no math wizard so I can’t really challenge it , although I’ve seen some who don’t completely trust it.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
5.1 dWAR on Bref in the past 2 seasons.
That’s insane.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
As in only 12 players have ever had a better single season dWAR than Gardner's 3.2 of 2011.
Make that 11. Andruw Jones is on the list twice.
The record is Adam Everett’s 4.0 in 2006.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Also, Saltalamacchia being 3 WAR? Really?
and what’s with Hellickson? I expect him to be better this year and not free fall backwards. I’d also think Aviles and Punto are about the same as a Briggy and Rodriguez platoon , if not worse.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
yeah, the salty projection is laughable.
pudieron89 - January 29, 2012
It's possible, but overly optimistic, imo.
I think Martin’s is more laughable.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
I understand that he was worth 2.5 last year and is entering his "prime years"
but let’s bear in mind that he had a 30%K rate to go with a 6% BB rate…if the league gives him anything but junk next year i’ll be surprised.
pudieron89 - January 29, 2012
And he'd have to actually be positive on defense again, too.
I get it, but I don’t think that’s the worst of the projections. Still optimistic, as I stated below.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Only possible if he's gotten into Ortiz's protein shakes.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Saltalamacchia was 2.5 wins in 2/3 of a season last year. I figured that given how highly touted Ryan Lavarnway is, between the two of them they'd combine for 3 wins. In hindsight the projection is generous though
PGP - January 29, 2012
He's paired with Shop, not Lavarnway.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Good point
PGP - January 29, 2012
Garbage... This is horrible.. Get this off....
Burnett, Lackey a 1.5 WAR??????? Yet that is the same as Hellickson
Bard is automatically a 2 WAR yet was bad minor leaguer starter that was converted to bullpen only to have slightly above average number as a reliever…
Gardner a 5 WAR and Jennings and Upton are a 4 WAR??
Beckett a 4 WAR, yet Shields and Price are a 4.5 and 4 WAR respectively.. Sorry this is pure garbage…
Try again
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
Oh and CC is a 6 WAR? Shields kicked his ass in pretty much statistical metric except Wins which just speaks to run support he received.. Shields last year playing with NYY would have 25 wins
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
Sabathia: 237.1 IP, 2.88 FIP, 3.02 xFIP
Shields:249.1 IP, 3.42 FIP, 3.25 xFIP
mr. maniac - January 29, 2012
Sabathia had a 6.9 WAR last year
rickrays - January 29, 2012
Yeah but that was only the 2nd time in his career that he's eclipsed the 6WAR mark.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Sabathia has been above 4.0 WAR every year since 2006
That’s pretty darn good considering Shields has only been above 4.0 WAR twice since he entered the league in 2006.
rickrays - January 29, 2012
Sabathia is a GREAT pitcher
No Doubt. I just don’t see him light years ahead of Lester , Shields and Price.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
And personally i think Moore has the potential to be the best pitcher in the AL
within 2 years.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
FanGraphs is saying 3.7 WAR.. so there is a fairly large disconnect
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
I know we are all expecting his to have a few hiccups this year
but i also think he could absolutely blow away the league and wouldn’t be shocked.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Fangraphs has a 2012 projected 5.5 WAR for CC.. Just saying.. .5 is not much of a difference
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
Shields was pitching in Tropicana Field half his games, not the bandbox known as Yankee stadium
Sabathia has averaged 33 WAR the last 5 seasons, and hit the 7 win mark last year. I stand by that projection 100%
PGP - January 29, 2012
Well...
by Fangraphs, Hellickson was a 1.4 WAR last season
by Baseball Prospectus, he was a 1.2 WAR last season
is 1.5 really that far off (outside of Lackey who won’t pitch)?
Jason Collette - January 29, 2012
I think the argument is more to the fact that Bard is 2 WAR along with Garcia and Burnett also being 1.5 WAR
Hellickson is better than those 3.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Exactly.. thank you Peter
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
Jason is correct though with those numbers.. I am just making a relative argument
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
FanGraphs 2012 Projection is a 2.5 WAR for Hellboy also
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
those are fan projections, not anyone else yet
But PECOTA has Hellickson at 2.4
Jason Collette - January 29, 2012
The Bill James projection look even better than the fan projection.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Bill James projections would make Michelle Bachmann look like a Republican frontrunner
Jason Collette - January 29, 2012
i get that they're optimistic
but it’s not just the fans who see an improvement.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
While everyone else looks at the massive gap between ERA and FIP
while ignoring the context of how the Rays have continually outperformed the norm
Jason Collette - January 29, 2012
I'm sure the Rays have their own metrics
and maybe this is how they’ve narrowed the gap. They could have a formula that no one else is using to evaluate talent.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
This is why I urged you to write something explaining what projection systems are trying to convey.
Fans are going to buy into these seemingly most optimistic projections without realizing that these systems are just as optimistic with the rest of the league. If Hellickson’s improvements are consistent with the rest of the league’s improvements, then did he improve, or did the league shift in dynamic? There is a reason we use measures that compare players league-wide, and that goes missing in these systems—although ZiPS does the smart thing by including league-average measures.
The systems you should consider are the conservative ones. Yeah, it might stink that they think Hellickson isn’t going to become Greg Maddux, but you don’t want your system shooting out 100th percentile projections for their means, otherwise your system is trash. These preferred systems are built around regression toward the mean. If you aren’t familiar with that concept, but want to understand why these systems do what they do, then here is Tango’s guide to building your own Marcels projections for hitters:
That’s it. Take the player’s recent performances and regress based on the league, playing time, and age. You can make it more complicated by filtering in comparable players across a range of attributes (i.e. old PECOTA), and you can always adjust based on other things, but if you want an easy, yet good way to project a player, just take his past three seasons and adjust for the variables. No, it won’t tell you that Casey Kotchman is going to go from being awful to hitting .300, but if you did that across the league you would see that it’s as good a way as any to project player performances.
Yes, it may seem silly to think Matt Moore is a league-average pitcher and nothing else, but across the league it evens out. Every fan thinks their young hitters and pitchers will take that next step forward. Not all of them do, so the league-average thing works. Always, always stay conservative if you’re using them for fantasy baseball, team projections, whatever.
R.J. Anderson - January 29, 2012
Bard's averaged 1.7 wins as a reliever the last two seasons
2 wins felt right, but really half a win here or there is an insignificant debating point
PGP - January 29, 2012
Relieving
is not starting. He hasn’t started since 2008, 4 years ago. Is 1.7 wins very good as a reliever? Hell yeah, but thats not the point, there is a difference between relieving and starting, Mariano Rivera isn’t a starter for a reason, Bard was converted to a relief pitcher for a reason. Look at Joba Chamberlin, doing things like this set his career back, and Joba had spent less time as a reliever than Bard. That and Joba’s performance might be the peak of what you can expect at 3.3 WAR, and that ended with an injury.
To honestly expect him to just hop into the rotation as a decent 3rd starter just seems nuts to me. I know everyone has their own opinions, but I don’t see why Bard can just be scratched down for being an above average starter when the last time he started he crapped the bed, in A ball. I would love to see some in-depth analysis on Bard if someone has done some.
Sam Joxer - January 29, 2012
He's never pitched more than 80 IP in a season either
You have to wonder, even if they are giving him a 30 IP bump, where those other innings are going to come from.
staplemaniac - January 29, 2012
Red Sox are also talking about doing the same with Aceves
which I think would be even less likely to succeed
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
In my projections this is what is hard about Boston.
With Bard and Aceves as their 4 and 5 the IP from starters is going to be rough and their bullpen being depleted by those 2 starting will have to carry a much greater workload. Not to count Buccholz coming back from an injury where he pitched less than 100 innings and never more than 170ish in his career.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
I think they'll get Jackson
At the VERY LEAST he will give you innings. I wouldn’t be shocked if they did Jackson AND Oswalt.
staplemaniac - January 29, 2012
I'd be shocked if they got Jackson AND Oswalt.
I expect them to add somebody, but as it sits right now it looks ugly for them.
Granted Bard could be a good starter, but it seems like a gamble not to take if you’re in win now mode when he is so good as a high leverage reliever.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
I could see them missing both
Oswalt looks to be looking NL, and Jackson has multiple 3-year deals on the table.
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
Have any teams confirmed their 3yr deal?
Or is it just Boras being Boras?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
after getting the Tigers to go 9/214 on Fielder
I no longer doubt Boras’s ability to do anything
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
I'm not sure a 3 year deal for Jackson wouldn't be in some teams's best interest.
staplemaniac - January 29, 2012
All very valid points
2 wins is probably somewhat generous
PGP - January 29, 2012
Well
That is what I think, but all projections I’ve seen have Bard kickin ass and takin names this season. Your projection is actually the most conservative I’ve seen. Fangraphs Fan Projections have him at 3.3 war, the one Jason Collette posted a few weeks ago had him doing even better, and not just WAR, in FIP and IP.
Am I just missing something? There can’t be this much smoke without fire, is it just his rate stats that have people salivating? I don’t care if I’m wrong, I’m trying to understand why.
Sam Joxer - January 29, 2012
Fangraphs fan projections are nearly worthless, in many cases
If anything, look at how fans of other teams project players. That’s somewhat better
PGP - January 29, 2012
I have a hard time seeing him as a 3 WAR+ pitcher.
It could happen, but I’d really like to see what his rate stats look like and what his velocity is in a starters role before getting too carried away.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
WAR for pitchers
If you accept WAR as the standard for pitchers, then you have to accept that the Rays had the 10th best pitching staff in the AL, even though they allowed the fewest runs. I sense some kind of disconnect there.
cocanat - January 29, 2012
I agree with that.
the Rays pitching has defied this metric for years.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Which is another argument for WAR not being a good indicator for pitching..
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
Need a healthy mix of WAR
I don’t find it good policy to rely on any one site
Jason Collette - January 29, 2012
Very true point
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
It's hard because you have to decide how much is the defense responsible for.
If the defense constantly makes more outs it will make your rate stats look worse than they would be in front of a league average defense. While I agree they aren’t 10th best in AL a lot of credit has to be given to the defense for saving those runs and I think that when you get too far on either side of good or bad defense they don’t do an effective job of evaluating the pitchers yet.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
I don't see the issue with just averaging fangraphs and B-ref WAR
One puts too much onus on the pitcher and gives too much credit to the defense.
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
Agreed.
BRef has Hellickson at 4.2 WAR last year which would make him look much better than the 1.5ish at fWAR.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
I average FG, BRef & BPro myself
Jason Collette - January 29, 2012
I agree. But note that rWAR has a lower replacement level. It has a different baseline than fWAR
Ben Tumbling - January 29, 2012
What is replacement level for fWAR?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Actually I misspoke
fWAR has a lower replacement level at around .290 team win % (47 wins). rWAR is at .333 (54 wins). Which means rWAR would be inherently lower in it’s player WARs.
Ben Tumbling - January 29, 2012
Yes, for pitchers rWAR is on average lower
PGP - January 29, 2012
"it's"
Ben Tumbling - January 29, 2012
The Rays have the league best defense and the most pitcher friendly stadium in baseball
Using ERA to judge our pitchers is not justifiable
PGP - January 29, 2012
I was completely unaware Lackey wouldn't be pitching this year
My bad
PGP - January 29, 2012
Price had a 1.3 WAR in his rookie year.
What are you saying? These guys are top prospects and to assume that Hellickson has completely changed as a pitcher based off of one year of MLB data seams odd.
mr. maniac - January 29, 2012
Hellickson could certainly take a step forward
He could also take a step backward a la Wade Davis. 1.5 wins seems like the middle ground.
PGP - January 29, 2012
Hellickson was 1.5 wins last season
The only situation where you project pitchers to improve is when a pitcher with a well established level of performance has declined one year due to HR/FB or non-concerning injury issues (Shields going into 2011 would be an example)
PGP - January 29, 2012
You wouldn't consider Hellickson's 2011 a year of decline he could bounce back from based on his rates
in the majors in 2010 and his career in the minors?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
This is an excellent point
But it’s difficult to reconcile his minor league performance with his big league performance, given how completely different the environments are
PGP - January 29, 2012
I get that
but in his SSS in 2010, he was racking up WAR at twice the rate he did in 2011.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Just like Wade Davis in 09
I know that Hellickson could (and hopefully will) take a very large step forward, but for projections you go for the 50th percentile
PGP - January 29, 2012
For pitchers only?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
For everyone
The 50th percentile for pitchers, particularly unproven ones, is lower than most people think. That’s why I deducted Pineda and Nova from last year’s marks as well
PGP - January 29, 2012
Then I'm still confused on the Salty, Granderson, Martin, etc etc etc
How are there’s so high?
Don’t answer, though. Just let me complain. haha I will probably disagree, and this will be never-ending.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
In short, Granderson looked real to me, Martin seems like he's got it all back, and putting Salty at 3 wins was a mistake (I didn't look at his numbers as closely as I should've)
These are my own opinions-I could well be wrong
PGP - January 29, 2012
Hold up a second.
1 WAR from the C position? Unless Molina falls off a cliff or Chirinos is worth negative WAR, I don’t see that happening. Just look at Molina’s numbers. He seems like an easy bet to be a .7 or so WAR player. Chirinos would have to be awful with the bat and with the glove to only be worth the .3 or so extra WAR.
I don’t understand Hellickson’s projections and John Lackey had TJS and will miss all of 2012.
Rodriguez /Brignac also appears too low while Zobrist look too high. You do realize the Rays got 1.7 WAR from the SS position last year, right?
Don’t worry though… I’m not going to get hung up on them like some others have already. I’m just curious about some of the numbers you gave.
mr. maniac - January 29, 2012
Crap.
I made a long post that my computer screwed up. Ah well.
mr. maniac - January 29, 2012
In short, The Rays C is too low, SS is too low, 2B is too high, Hellickson is too low, and Shields is a touch high.
Lackey will not pitch in 2012 either.
mr. maniac - January 29, 2012
I was completely unaware of Lackey having TJS. I don't know how, but that's my mistake
The Catcher position seems fair to me, given that Molina has only accrued 5.4 WAR in his career, and will be turning 37 next season. I found it difficult to project Chirinos given that his bat could well be a black hole.
The SS position was admittedly conservative, but after what happened last season, I felt it was necessary. The Rays most certainly did not get 1.7 wins from SS last year, in that calculation you’re including Sean’s performance at other positions.
Zobrist at 2B actually felt like a conservative guess to me. Look at what he’s done the last 3 years
PGP - January 29, 2012
The Rays got Molina for his glove not his bat. Traditional war metrics treat John Jaso and Molina the same with the glove.
FreeZorilla - January 29, 2012
Not particularly-fangraphs has Jaso at -5 per 150, and Molina at +8 in its WAR metric, a substantial difference
I understand your point, but given that I had no way of knowing what to expect from Molina’s defense (other than CS), I opted simply to ignore it. The best way? Maybe not, but what would you do?
PGP - January 29, 2012
Canzler is not with the Rays right now either
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
When I wrote this, he was. It doesn't particularly impact the projections either way
PGP - January 29, 2012
Price has a 2012 Projected WAR of 4.5 from FanGraphs and Matt Moore is greatly being depreciated.. FanGraphs has a projected 3.7 WAR for Moore
And
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
I think to expect more than 2.5-3 WAR from Moore as a rookie would be a mistake.
He might just blow through the league and have an amazing season, but to expect that at this point is a litle optimistic. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a monster season, but think it’s just as likely he has a few hiccups and posts something in the 2-3 range.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
Perhaps it makes more sense to list probabilities for each something like:
WAR Likelihood
1 100%
2 75%
3 45%
4 20%
5 10%
6 5%
That’s just off the top of my head with not a whole ton of thought, compare that to someone like Shields that is established and you might see something like
1 100%
2 90%
3 60%
4 30%
5 5%
6 0%
Shields is more of a sure thing, but it’s unreasonable to think he will ever have a season as good as he just had ever again. Moore has the chance to be even better, but there is attached uncertainty as well.
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
The big leagues are a different game. How many rookie pitchers can you name that have immediately been worth 3 wins or more?
Expecting Matt Moore to dominate the league immediately a la Tim Lincecum is a sore mistake
PGP - January 29, 2012
How many rookie pitchers struck out nearly 40% of the batters they faced at AAA while walking less than 10%
I expect him to be very good next year
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
stuff I did not know
Tim Lincecum pitched just 62 2/3 innings in the minors before being called up for good.
Lincecum had a 13.4 K/9 rate at AAA; Matt Moore’s career K/9 is 12.7, although his nine starts at Durham last year could have come right out of Lincecum’s stat line.
I don’t think it’s likely that Matt Moore will win the AL Cy Young next year, but I do think it’s plausible. I bet Vegas has a line for him, for example (whereas they will not have a line for, say, Wade Davis or Freddy Garcia).
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
Moore is the best pitching prospect the Rays have ever had
I understand that we need to temper our expectations, but I think 3.5 wins (assuming health) is very reasonable given
a) the quality of his minor league track record
and
b) the consistency/length of his minor league track record.
The only way I see him having less than 3 WAR is if he goes back to walking guys like he did a couple of years ago or if he gets hurt. Assuming neither, very good case scenario he could have 5 WAR this season without a doubt in my mind.
staplemaniac - January 29, 2012
As do I
But still, list for me the pitchers who were worth 3 wins or more in their rookie years. The list is short.
PGP - January 29, 2012
I completely agree.
I expect him to wind up somewhere in the 2.5-3 WAR range. It would not shock me though if he came out and blew everybody away with a 5+ WAR season either, but a mid 2s is much more realistic.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
73 pitchers have done it since 1901 and this leaves off pitchers that had a cup of coffee that counted as their first season that went on to have success in their real rookie campaign
Attempting to account for this there have been 171 that have compiled 4 WAR over their first two years. The best, of course, is Doc Gooden how compiled 17 WAR! in his first two seasons. You have to at least entertain the possibility, no matter how remote, that the guy will hit the ground running and be a 4-5 WAR pitcher in his first season. Which is why I like the idea of assigning probabilities to final WAR figures and would gladly like to see your ballpark percentiles of likelihood.
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
I would say*:
1WAR: 100%
2WAR: 85%
3WAR: 50%
4WAR: 20%
5WAR: 10%
6WAR: 5%
*This post is not based on facts or data
staplemaniac - January 29, 2012
My guess?
1 WAR+-90%
2 WAR+-65%
3 WAR+-40%
4 WAR+-15%
5 WAR+-5-10%
PGP - January 29, 2012
SRod alone is going to bring in much more than 1 WAR.
If Brignac rebounds, that’s solid production at SS.
5 WAR from Teixeira would basically assume he is going to be batting around .300 again.
Granderson at 6 is pretty bold, considering the 3 seasons prior to 2011.
Martin hasn’t hit 3.5 WAR since 2008.
Nick Swisher has only hit 4 WAR once in his career, and it looks like you rounded, but rounding up might be a mistake.
Salty’s optimistic.
Ellsbury’s optimistic.
Hellickson makes no improvement?
Price is pessimistic.
There’s more, but I’ll stop there. How did you come up with these numbers?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
You can't project a pitcher to improve.
1) Tex was worth 4.2 wins with a BABIP of .239 last year. 5 might be a tad generous, but I don’t think significantly so.
2) Granderson was hard to pick, but given that many of the changes he made last year seemed sustainable (i.e. learning how to hit lefties), 6 seems fair.
3) Martin was worth 3.1 wins with a BABIP 50 points below his career mark. Given his other peripherals were all in line with when he was a 4.5-5.5 war catcher with the dodgers, 3.5 seemed fair.
4) Swisher has hovered in the 3.5-4 region the last few years. I don’t think half a win here or there is a big deal, but you’re right, 3.5 probably would’ve been a better projection.
5) Salty is indeed optimistic, I explained my logic above.
6) Ellsbury was worth 9.2 wins last year. 9.2.
7) You don’t project pitchers to improve, period. Aging curves are not kind to pitchers.
8) Price might be conservative, but this is a half a win here or there we’re talking about. Minor quibbling point, it seems to me
PGP - January 29, 2012
well
1. in 2010, he was worth 3.2 WAR with a .268 babip.
2. why do you think his success against lefties is sustainable?
3. that was like 5 years ago now.
4. Fine
5. Fine
6. He’s never hit for any power before. Joe Mauer. Joe Mauer.
7. I commented to your above comment.
8. Why round up for other teams, but not for the Rays? You’re giving Price a decline from the past 2 seasons. Why?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Well
1) Your point about Tex is valid, but the last 4 years Tex has been pretty good overall. 5 wins is probably generous, I admit.
2) Granderson put it all together nearing the end of 2010, with alleged “swing changes” etc. Although the endpoints may seem arbitrary and all that rot about correlation and causation, now that Granderson seems to have “put it all together” for about 800 PA, it’s enough to at least make me think it’s mostly sustainable.
6) I docked Ellsbury 3 wins from his last year performance. It was very probably unsustainable, but I mean a 3 win deduction seems significant as is.
8) I didn’t round up for any of the pitchers with short tracks. I knocked off wins from Nova and Pineda as well
PGP - January 29, 2012
Then why did you project Niemann to improve?
And since pitchers never improve, should these projections always slight the Rays since the Rays have more young pitchers who can’t improve?
mr. maniac - January 29, 2012
Inflated HR/FB seemed to be the root of Niemann's 2011 nominal issues, as well as missed playing time
Plus I’m a big Jeff Niemann fan.
I didn’t say that pitchers don’t improve. I said that you can’t project them to improve, if you’re doing a fair 50th percentile projection. There’s a difference
PGP - January 29, 2012
But then why did you project Niemann to improve?
I’m not arguing that he shouldn’t but that you said never to project pitchers to improve.
mr. maniac - January 29, 2012
Note that I said inflated HR/FB is one situation where you can project a pitcher to improve, as is injury.
Also, I really like Jeff Niemann. These aren’t 100% objective, computer made projections, and I’m not pretending they are. My own biases have come into play here, and Niemann is one of them.
PGP - January 29, 2012
Understood.
mr. maniac - January 29, 2012
Beckett is a 3.3 WAR by FanGraphs... Because he has shown considerable decline in the last couple years.. Too much work early in his career
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
Beckett has averaged 4.6 wins the last 5 years, with a strong showing last year
You do know Fangraphs projections are literally just cobbling together what the fans think will happen, right?
PGP - January 29, 2012
Oh, and I think the Rays C is right on.
Anyone expecting much more than 1 WAR from catcher with Molina/??? is a homer. I said it.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
I agree , unless we find a real catcher for 100 games with Molina playing 60
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Yeeeeep.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
but Salty and his 220 avg and the fact he struggles to catch a ball pitched to him is a 3 WAR?
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
Last year was his first year above 1 WAR
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Don't you expect
Kuroda to be in the Yankee rotation?
bobr - January 29, 2012
Yeah that was another omission
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
I forgot about him completely
PGP - January 29, 2012
IN TOTAL.. I am seeing +3 for the Rays, -3.5 for the Yankees and -3 Red Sox
GrayhawkAZ - January 29, 2012
I had Red Sox at 96 prior to Scutaro trade, Yankees at 94 and Rays at 93 prior to Kep signing
fwiw
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
That seems much more likely.
These 3 teams are close. This projection here has the Rays 3rd best by a fairly wide margin.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
How many games less are the Rays at now since the Keppinger signing?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
It shouldn't be a big bump just because he probably won't get a ton of PAs, but replacing Canzler who Zips has below replacement is a nice step up
http://theraysway.com/articles/projecting-the-top-of-the-american-league-east
At most we’re probably talking another win, and I’d knock one off of the Sox for trading Scut, but they’ll probably upgrade at pitcher anyway.
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
I'm not sure about the pitching.
It doesn’t look likely that they will upgrade. If they were going to, what are they waiting for?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
They don't want to give the years to Jackson, though he may come around to a one year deal
I’d be surprised if they didn’t get Oswalt. The real fear is that they’ll trade for Garza, with what I have no clue. Just the though of that Manimal wrecking us makes me want to puke.
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
I keep waiting to hear about Oswalt going to the Sox.
But then I keep hearing reports that he wants to be closer to home, and latest was that he is going to STL pending a physical, so I don’t know what to make of it. His demands seem pretty small right now, so I don’t get what is taking so long.
Jackson apparently (but who knows with Boras) has multiple multiyear offers from different teams, and if it’s true, why would he sign in a tough division for a year and try free agency again next season? That would be dumb for Jackson and Boras.
I doubt they have what it takes to get Garza. Theo won’t even give them compensation at this point, so I doubt they’re going to get a fair shake. He’s going to get everything out of them that he can, so I doubt it happens.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Sure it just seems like there's talent out there when all they need is a #5 to soak up some innings and keep them in the game
They’d love to upgrade, but if the worst case scenario hits that Bard can’t make the jump and Buchholz gets hurt again then their season won’t amount to much anyway. They’re hitching their star to offense again and I hope it blows up in their faces. Again.
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
I believe it's going to.
Youklis won’t play 100 games this year. If he’s not at 1st then he’s a DH. They can’t give up 7 runs a game and win.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
And isn't Crawford starting the season on the DL?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
I think he probably should.
If he’s not 100% healthy , then it’s gonna be another bad year. Can’t hit without your wrists.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
They're not certain yet, but they're saying there's a decent chance of that
PGP - January 29, 2012
from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com who covers the Indians
Jason Collette - January 29, 2012
Hmmmm Tampa or Cleveland lol
The lack of a state income tax here probably evens that out.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
the fact he already has residence here in Orlando doesn't hurt either
Jason Collette - January 29, 2012
And i truly believe he liked playing here.
He’s coming back to a situation he knows already. Easy decision i bet.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
"I've been clocked as high as 103.."
http://baseballhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/01/seth-mcclung-baseballs-big-red.html
Say what???
Jason Collette - January 29, 2012
I bet he was driving.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
Please!
-MLBTR
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Does it not seem like the bullpen gets undervalued in all of these projection systems?
I mean, I know a lot of us remember years before we had a good bullpen, but still seemed competitive (think 06-07), when it seemed like we were ahead if not most, than at least half of the games, through the 6th/7th innings, only to watch out bullpen blow it on almost a daily basis. it seems to me, though perhaps just in my head, that bullpens have a pretty large impact on win total that doesn’t get taken into account in the win projections i see.
davidsmarch - January 29, 2012
The defense behind that 2007 pen was historically bad. Like top-10 of all time. The guys chucking weren't much better, but you can't completely crap on guys like Shawn Camp who's job is to come in and get a groundball only to watch a bunch of guys with
leg braces on give half-hearted effort and not get to it. I’m happy where we’re at now as Friedman has it set up that there are waves of talent for not only this year, but down the road.
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
doesn't answer my question at all
davidsmarch - January 29, 2012
It's very difficult to project a bullpen due to the massive fluctuations from year to year.
that’s why they are usually not included.
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
meaning that yes, win projection systems are inherently flawed as they do not take into account differences in bullpen quality
which, just from my eyeball and from nothing scientific, seem to have a direct outcome impact on at least 5 if not 10 games by themselves.
davidsmarch - January 29, 2012
Yes they are flawed.
Until we get a working crystal ball , it’s still the best way to project forward
Peter Piontek - January 29, 2012
They may seem like they impact games more due to leverage, but in the aggregate I don't think even the best pen is worth more than five wins on a season
I agree with your larger point that WAR seems to undervalue relievers, but compared to the other things that matter I don’t think they’re as important.
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
what if i have a terrible pen, who comes in and blows 20 games for me from the 7th inning on throughout the season
and this other team has an amazing pen that only blow 5 games from the 7th inning on. i know i can’t just say team b’s bullpen is worth 15wins more, but there has to be a better way to evaluate BP than WAR, considering the direct impact a single pitch can have on the outcome of a game. remember when the rays BP blew something like 40+ leads after the 6th inning? i have a hard time believing that that BP had less than a -5win impact.
davidsmarch - January 29, 2012
Well, you can think of the closer argument as well
Where, regardless of who is pitching in the 9th inning you still win like 95% of games if you’re ahead to start the inning. If your bullpen is blowing 20 games then either it’s historically bad or your defense is historically bad (a la 2007). I just think for a normal team, random variance and game situation makes it tough to predict that one bullpen will be markedly better than another.
staplemaniac - January 29, 2012
Provide your own estimates and we can debate those
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
I like what PGP's done here
It’s essentially a rosy scenario (not best-case, but rosy) for the Yankees, a near-best-case for the Red Sox, and a slightly pessimistic one for the Rays.
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
This isn't a near-best-case for the Red Sox
Best case for the Red Sox is Ellsbury replicates his last year, Youkilis and Crawford return to their forms of two years ago.
PGP - January 29, 2012
No, that's more like unrealistic than best case
particularly about Ellsbury.
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
Best case implies unrealistic, in the baseball world
PGP - January 29, 2012
what would you classify Kotch's renaissance as last year?
or Zorilla in 2009? All 3 of the things you said are unrealistic, but any one of them is best-case.
pudieron89 - January 29, 2012
I'd classify those as unrealistic, certainly
But unrealistic things can happen
PGP - January 29, 2012
well, that's why I said "near-best case"
Carl Crawford is having wrist surgery; that can be a career-ender (just ask Fernando Perez). I’d say there’s a significantly better chance that he repeats 2011 than 2010.’’
Anyway, I’m serious: I’m glad you did it this way. The usual problem with fan projections is that they’re overly optimistic to the home team and overly pessimistic to divisional rivals; it’s fun seeing it in reverse.
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
MiLB Superstar slam poet Fernando Perez?
pudieron89 - January 29, 2012
I really thought Fernando could have had a Coco Crisp-plus career
were it not for that 2009 wrist injury. Before that, he had a broad base of skills and was the fastest player in terms of raw speed that I have ever seen. After that, he simply couldn’t hit the ball any more.
Still brings the mad linguistic skillz though.
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
i'll always remember his pinch running in game 7 ALCS 2008.
pudieron89 - January 29, 2012
(lol JD Drew)
pudieron89 - January 29, 2012
And game 2 of the ALCS
benderbrodriguez - January 29, 2012
In fact, I think that you meant game 2?
benderbrodriguez - January 29, 2012
maybe. it was a long time ago, and i have a terrible memory for this sort of thing.
i just remember JD Drew catching the ball in foul territory allowing Fernando to score.
pudieron89 - January 29, 2012
I'm going to post a fanpost with my projection accounting for playing time and so forth in the next few days.
Right now, I have Rays = Yankees at 97.5 Wins and the Red Sox at 94.
This is of right this second and I am going to look over my numbers and probably make some adjustments. From what I see though the Red Sox have the largest variance of the teams with their current rotation and injury issues in the field along with their SS/RF situation. It honestly wouldn’t surprise me if they won 104 or only 84 though.
I think the biggest advantage I give to the Rays right now is their depth both in positional players and pitchers. When the injury happens the Rays can cover it a lot easier than either Boston or New York right now.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
Rays have a lot of variance, too
It wouldn’t surprise me to see any one of the top 4 starters (Price, Shields, Moore, Hellickson) be Cy Young. Brignac could return to 2010 form. Jennings is all upside. B.J. Upton is B.J. Upton. Brandon Guyer. There’s a lot of ceiling out there.
Oh, and I’m really excited about McGee and Gomes in the bullpen, too.
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
It would very much surprise me if Moore or Hellickson won a Cy Young
And you’re right-the Rays have lots and lots of upside, and if even a couple players hit it, look out AL East
PGP - January 29, 2012
They have a lot of fairly consistant producer that they'll rely on.
You’re right if we have a breakout from a SS or a pitcher go nuts there is tons of upside. But I think the depth the Rays have built will stabilize alot of the downside of their variance. Obviously a serious injury to Zobrist or Longoria could be devastating though without multiple people stepping up big.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
I agree, I'm saying
High floor with serious ceiling space.
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
Ya, their variance comes in the form of injuries.
Causing significant downgrades from the likes of Youkilis to their backups. And if Beckett/Lester/Buchholtz go down for any period of time it gets very sketchy.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
OBP is Life
OT, but if Raul Ibanez would accept a split contract with, say, a June 1 opt-out, that’d be a nice fit for the Rays organization as Luke Scott insurance. He’s probably done at age 40, of course, but even his 2010 numbers (.275/.349/.444, 111 OPS+) would have been welcome at DH in recent years.
AndrewTorrez - January 29, 2012
I'm sure this has been mentioned above
but I have to think that the Matt Moore projection could be a little low as well. I can see him posting a higher WAR than Price or Shields. He shouldn’t have that much of an innings limit.
JoeMasGlasses - January 29, 2012
It has been, and it's possible
But let’s not forget that the kid’s a rookie-we should definitely temper our expectations somewhat
PGP - January 29, 2012
I'd have a bigger problem with Price's projection than Moore.
I’d have it something along the lines of
Price 4.5
Shields 4.0
Moore 2.5
Hellickson 2.5
Niemann/Davis 1.0
Cobb 0.5
Not much difference in the end really.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
Price might be a hair conservative, but I didn't think it really mattered half a win here or there to be honest
PGP - January 29, 2012
Ya, in the end it's not much difference.
jtmorgan - January 29, 2012
Maybe the Sox would be more interested in McClellan as a cheap alternative to get some IP
I would be excited if that trade came about. Either way, if the Cards move McClellan, what are the odds that Oswalt doesn’t end up there?
SandalsNoPants - January 29, 2012
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