Darren Calabrese - AP
6 months ago: Los Angeles Angels relief pitcher Fernando Rodney reacts after walking Toronto Blue Jays leadoff hitter Yunel Escobar in the 10th inning of MLB baseball game action in Toronto Sunday, August 14, 2011. The Blue Jays defeated the Angels 5-4 in extra innings. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)
Rays Talk
First up, I'm late getting to this story, but the Florida legislature has uncovered an old law that requires publicly-financed sports stadiums to serve as homeless shelters while not in use. They're attempting to push a measure through that would enforce said law while also tacking on some extra provisions -- one of which includes fines a team for blackouts. If the bill passed, any stadium that hasn't been operating a homeless shelter while receiving public money would have to pay back millions of dollars.
I doubt anything comes of this, as it seems like a lot of grandstanding. But still...might Maddon get inspired to take his Thanksmas idea to a whole new level?
Jeff Keppinger has been talked about in these parts an insane amount these past couple days -- Spring Training can't come soon enough -- but there are another couple good pieces on him if you haven't already hit your #KeppTalk quota. Bradley Woodrum tackled how he fits in on the Rays current roster over at FanGraphs, and the tossed around the idea that signing Kepp could open the door for a trade of B.J. Upton.
And finally:
New #Rays reliever Fernando Rodney was wretched tonight for Leones del Escogido in DR:0.1 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 4 ER, 1 K, BS Yuck.
— John Gregg (@RaysDigest) January 27, 2012
It's only one game. It's only one game. It's only one game....
MLB Chatter
Prince Fielder's new contract has already had one great side-effect: it has served as inspiration for many of us writers who were struggling to come up with interesting things to write about. Jay Jaffe took a look at how the Tigers new infield will shake out defensively (hint: quite poorly), and the BP staff uncovered an old article from 2007 on the "worst contracts" in baseball.
What would it take for the Washington Nationals to sign Ryan Zimmerman to an extension? Wendy Thurm takes a look.
So remember that monstrosity of a home run feature that's going to be in the Marlins' new ballpark? It's under construction, and apparently it's massive.
0 recs | 97 comments
Are the Tigers a good trading partner for Niemann or Davis?
They’re looking for a low cost SP and have a few interesting prospects like Castellanos, Oliver and Turner although i doubt either of those two get Turner.
I’m more inclined to trade them for a catcher (Hundley) but still worth watching
sternfan1 - January 27, 2012
Make them take Rodney back too
Barnacles - January 27, 2012
Silly to even post or tweet that meaningless winter league appearence
If he’d Kd the side would it have really mattered?
sternfan1 - January 27, 2012
Eh, it's late January.
Yeah, it means nothing. There’s just little else happening right now to even point out.
Steve Slowinski - January 27, 2012
I disagree. I think speculating on what the Rays are
looking for in return for Niemann/Davis could generate conversation. I’m thinking a catcher
sternfan1 - January 27, 2012
Who do you like other than hundley?
Major league tested or prospect?
BossmanJunior333 - January 27, 2012 via mobile
I wonder about Soto from the Cubs
and Collette spoke of COL and their three catchers and need of SP
sternfan1 - January 27, 2012
Yeah im a soto fan
Would you do niemann or davis straight up for 2 years of soto. The 4.3 mil salary might be steep too.
BossmanJunior333 - January 27, 2012 via mobile
yes but Niemann's $3mil comes off with the trade
sternfan1 - January 27, 2012
I'd rather dump Davis...
When healthy, which is obviously the key, Niemann typically pitches like a #2/3. That has value. Would rather risk Niemann pitching 1st Half or full season and dealing him for something nice, opening up spot for Cobb, who I really like.
td32 - January 27, 2012
Where do people get this?
Niemann will never get 2/3 type return because he’s simply not a 2/3. I’m not cool enough to go anywhere fancier than Baseball Reference for the moment, but he has an ERA+ if 89 and 92 in the last two seasons. That means he’s been 10% below league average in ERA, which is something Detroit’s GM has shown he has a tendency to look at. While I don’t have his FIP handy, it doesn’t look like that would be too great either, as he’s around average at striking guys out and gives up a lot of home runs.
Honestly, if we trade Niemann, he gets a return of a #4 starter, which is what he is – a decent but not great #4 starter. Think two low-level B-/C+ prospects with upside, or something along those lines.
Also, even if Niemann gets traded, it still doesn’t open a spot for Cobb.
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
Yeah, I look at him as around 10% better than average when healthy which is maybe 2/3rds of the time.
Sandy Kazmir - January 27, 2012
Niemann is essentially a 2 WAR pitcher.
You are discouting him far too much.
And when Niemann has his mechanics fine (and his health), he can be a superb pitcher.
Last year, Niemann had a stretch on 8 starts where he pitched 58.1 innings, gave up 16 ER (2.47 ERA), struck out 56 batters, walked 14 batters, and gave up 5 homeruns.
Niemann has plenty of upside. However, his frame and injuries prevent him from consistently reaching that upside.
Also, Niemann has averaged 1.8 WAR over the past three years. 68 pitchers had a higher WAR last year. That would make Niemann a good #3 starter. And since he has been trending upwards, it isn’t unreasonable to call him a 2/3.
mr. maniac - January 27, 2012
He's had 2 WAR once in his career
And your math is funny. 4.5 WAR in 3 years isn’t 1.8 WAR. And half of that came in 2009. And he hasn’t been trending upwards. His WAR in 2010 and 2011 were identical, both of which were less than half of his WAR in 2009. Yes, he pitched fewer innings in 2011, but injuries are part of the package too. For a guy who has had 2 healthy seasons in the last 8, you can’t just ignore that.
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
I just checked it again, and Niemann has been worth 5.4 WAR over the past three years.
And Niemann’s health has bounced all over the place. However, his pitching has gotten better. If you never read my fanpost, I suggest you do: http://www.draysbay.com/2012/1/24/2726540/is-jeff-niemann-a-breakout-candidate
I’m not ignoring health. However, even with health issues, Niemann should be a 2+ WAR (on average) pitcher out of the AL East, which is a 2/3 starter.
mr. maniac - January 27, 2012
I've gotten to the point where I find it disingenous to only use the one type of WAR, whether it's your intent or not it's probably better to average b-ref and FG
…….. r…… f….. rf
2008…. -0.2 0 -0.1
2009…. 2.4 2.9 2.65
2010…. 1.1 1 1.05
2011 …. 1.1 1.5 1.3
Total …. 4.4 5.4 4.9
That’s one pretty good season (2009) and two where he’s barely useable for a total of 4.9 over his basically three years. I get that when he’s on he looks pretty solid, but that’s everybody. You can’t just gloss over the negatives or throw out the poor performance to state your case.
Sandy Kazmir - January 27, 2012
Well WAR is counting stat
So whatever WAR we project for 2012 will depend on how much we expect him to pitch.
He has averaged 160 the past 3 years. I guess that’s a reasonable amount to expect again. He’s been a 4.20 FIP guy the same period. 4.20 FIP in 160 IP is 2.1 WAR.
For more optimism, good trends:
xFIP
2009 – 4.46
2010 – 4.18
2011 – 3.73
GB%
2009 – 40.5 %
2010 – 44.4 %
2011 – 46.0 %
Ben Tumbling - January 27, 2012
Ding Ding Ding.
mr. maniac - January 27, 2012
Legitimate question
How do you get 4.20 FIP over 160 IP = 2.1 WAR?
I might be misreading things, but didn’t he have a 4.20 FIP over about 160 IP in 2010 for a 1.1 WAR?
Plus, league average in FIP has trended downward over the past few years as well. Does your math account for that?
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
Also
I hate to say it, but when you’re talking trade value, the numbers we like to use here are irrelevant to half the GMs in the league. And the ones it is relevant to are probably going to be able to find better deals elsewhere, because they know Friedman knows just as much as they do about the hidden value in players. It’s only a market inefficiency if the person you’re dealing with doesn’t share your viewpoint.
I’m not saying Niemann doesn’t have some value, I’m just saying he doesn’t have much trade value. There’s a reason guys with his profile don’t get traded very often. That said, if Randy Wolf can stay in the league for over a decade and make $60M, I’m sure someone will find that he’s a cheaper upgrade than free agent alternatives.
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
I think Friedman can sell him
62% winning percentage, 4.16 career ERA playing in the AL East, yada yada. If you’re saying don’t expect some Gio-type haul, then I agree.
Ben Tumbling - January 27, 2012
Niemms would thrive in STL
MakeitRayn - January 27, 2012
How the hell do you know what numbers which GMs look at?
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
He had a 4.61 FIP in 2010, thus the 1 fWAR
And no, the 4.20 FIP was just a mental averaging of his 3 year FIP. No fancy adjustments.
Ben Tumbling - January 27, 2012
Three year average is still awfully convenient
When his last two years were consistently below average but the third year was avobe average.
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
His last 2 years are below average only based on ERA ie results
As I posted above, his ground ball rate is increasing and his xFIP has improved.
Ben Tumbling - January 27, 2012
we always use a 3-year average
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
that's also the period he's been a full-time player'
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
check out his FIP-, though. It isn't good.
The RE in MLB (especially in the Trop) has been dropping steadily.
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
Culprit has been his homerun rate
HR/FB past 3 years:
7.6 %
12.2 %
12.6 %
MLB average is around 10 % if I remember correctly.
FIP doesn’t account for that. xFIP does. Skill or luck? That’s the question.
Ben Tumbling - January 27, 2012
the issue with that is BRef uses ERA which is stupid.
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
I'd prefer RA, but over 200ish innings, ERA tells you something about a pitcher
It’s as good a jump off as any
Sandy Kazmir - January 28, 2012
Well tech less than 3 mil bc rays will won the arb case ha
Im still hoping they keep niemann but your right.
I know a lot of ppl disagree, but I still like hank congers potential.
BossmanJunior333 - January 27, 2012 via mobile
He'll make a great president someday
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
NO POLITICS
nomoredevil - January 27, 2012
Y'ALL MUSTA FORGOT!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTTLkDfg_HI
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
this, 100%
pudieron89 - January 27, 2012
It's not encouraging, anyways
benderbrodriguez - January 27, 2012
i'd love having castellanos but he doesn't exactly have a future on our team until after 2017.
i don’t know enough about his tools to see if his bat plays at 1B or if he could play up the middle or a corner.
pudieron89 - January 27, 2012
neither do i but i know he's about their #2 or 3 prospect
sternfan1 - January 27, 2012
he's a good hitter with some power that projects for more.
id assume he’d move to RF before 1B as a former SS with a strong arm. 2b isn’t out of the question either.
a snippet from his BA write-up:
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
in the 2010 draft, I saw a scouting report that hung an 80 future hit tool on Castellanos
can’t find it at the moment, but it was pretty jaw-dropping
AndrewTorrez - January 27, 2012
lol
no chance id say a guy with 140 ks in a milb season has an 80 hit tool. i think he’ll be a pretty good hitter (maybe very good), but no chance he’ll ever have a hit tool like Miggy or Vlad.
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
I don't know if I'd call him a good hitter
benderbrodriguez - January 27, 2012
Completely random, but I couldn't help but notice that Ty Morrison should have been a similarly valued prospect after 2010.
mr. maniac - January 27, 2012
In other words, Castellanos is a bit overrated.
mr. maniac - January 27, 2012
More than a bit, I feel like
benderbrodriguez - January 27, 2012
how do you figure?
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
A .365 wOBA in A Ball, fuelled by a (probably unsustainable) .400+ BABIP?
A well above league-average K rate of 23% with no power to compensate for it? He has the potential to be a good hitter, sure, but he isn’t one yet. Hitters who strike out a lot in the minors have been shown to be far more likely to flame out
benderbrodriguez - January 27, 2012
Maybe he could make a switch to second like rendon and beckham
BossmanJunior333 - January 27, 2012 via mobile
beckham hasn't done that, or are you talking about the white one
pudieron89 - January 27, 2012
Ha yes white (sox) one
BossmanJunior333 - January 27, 2012 via mobile
Their minor league system is awful
But Niemann doesn’t have gobs of trade value either.
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
Is anyone else excited Leyland plans on playing Cabrera at 3rd base?
Any of the saber guys wanna take a stab at how many runs/wins this will cost the Tigers? I know Jonah speculated it could cost as many as 3 wins. I’m at the point now, with Victor Martinez being worth about 3 wins last season, Prince worth 5.5 wins last season, if Prince replicates that number and with Cabrera at 3rd… it’s almost a wash when compared to last season.
td32 - January 27, 2012
It's complete speculation.
Mark Reynolds has been worth -37.9 UZR/150 over the last three years combined. David Wright is the next worst at -31.1 over the last three years. I’d knock maybe two wins off, but you also have to factor in that you’re adding in 15 runs for positional adjustment from 3rd to 1st. So even if he’s a -30 player over there, it only has the effect of making him 15 runs worse than if he was an average first basemen. Miggy going from a 6-7 WAR guy to a 4.5-6 WAR guy still makes him an incredible asset to the team.
Sandy Kazmir - January 27, 2012
I understand he is still an asset...
My point is people are crowning the Tigers as one of elite teams in baseball, when I dont know if they are much better then last season if Cabrera plays 3rd base. You point out the reduction in Cabrera’s WAR + Losing VMart’s 3WAR= Adding Prince’s 5.5 WAR…. Sounds like a wash… Or awfully close to a wash. All this is predicated on Cabrera playing 3rd. If Prince/Fielder rotate from 1B/DH, that would be their ideal situation.
td32 - January 27, 2012
Comparing to last year is a foolish exercise because it doesn't account for other players having up or down years or guys like Fister and Delmon having a full season's worth of impact
Saying that the Tigers will be better/worse than they were last year because Prince does/doesn’t replace V-Mart leaves so much stuff out of the equation, but it’s fun for talk radio, I guess. The better question is, “How bad would Miggy have to be defensively at 3B before Jimmy Ley insists on the 1B/DH timeshare?” Here’s a look at two scenarios where you have them as full time starters on the corners (A) and a 1B/DH timeshare (B):
I get A being worth 9.6 and B being worth 9.5. A would be more likely to see an injury so let’s knock 35 PAs off for each player. I now get Prince at 4.2 and Miggy at 4.9 for a total of 9.1 with Miggy as a -20 defender. That falls to 8.7 total with Miggy as a -25 defender and 8.2 as a -30 defender. So you’re basically talking about a window of 8-10 WAR with option A. Option B gives each player a chance to be rested some of the time lowering the probability of a defense-related injury, but there is a DH penalty of around 10% which is going to affect both hitters. We now see their WAR drop to a combined 7.2.
So even if Miggy is a -30 defender then it could be smart to use him at 3B to avoid the dreaded DH-penalty that most folks seem to forget about. Here’s a look at the final chart with tweaks:
With this factored in then you’re talking about a window of around 7 – 9.5 WAR. I don’t think it hurts to try the corners approach at first and see just how long it takes to get disgusted. The real scary thing could be if Delmon is behind Miggy. Then you’re looking at more balls getting through to an OF that can’t really move well, but that’s a lesson for another day.
Sandy Kazmir - January 27, 2012
lol
how many gbs turn in to 2bs or 3bs there that are outs for longo? that’s really funny.
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
I would think Delmon profiles better in RF if you have to use him, right? Strong arm, not much mobility. Austin Jackson can only help so much.
But then I guess you have Boesch in LF. Maybe they could afford to go with a Brignac that will help cover up some of that defensive weakness and they can afford the hit with the bat? Would be nice if they had anything worth pursuing because a Niemann/Briggy trade could line up pretty nicely for them.
Sandy Kazmir - January 27, 2012
the problem with him in RF is how many triples does he cause with his lack of mobility? or inside the parkers really.
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
Man I just realized that the Tigers have to choose between putting Fielder, Cabrera of Delmon Young in the field
Oh wait, they want to do all three? Fantastic.
Also, do not draft Rick Porcello in fantasy.
Barnacles - January 27, 2012
Why the 10% drop (DH penalty)?
I would be interested in reading into the methodology behind that, if you had a link, or if you could drop a quick summary.
MakeitRayn - January 27, 2012
z
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/skill_to_dh/
FreeZorilla - January 27, 2012
Thanks Freezy darling
Sandy Kazmir - January 27, 2012
The generic penalty applied is 5%
benderbrodriguez - January 27, 2012
*should be
benderbrodriguez - January 27, 2012
Shouldn't Miggy be worse than a -30 there?
mr. maniac - January 27, 2012
The worst player in the league has been -13, you expect him to be more than twice as bad as the worst player in the league?
Sandy Kazmir - January 27, 2012
My bad, I misread your post.
mr. maniac - January 27, 2012
maybe
AndrewTorrez - January 27, 2012
I would not have thought Wright was even remotely in the discussion. Wow.
AndrewTorrez - January 27, 2012
im guessing injuries have really taken their toll.
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
Him and Bay are basically playing with brain damage at this point after getting plunked in the head.
I told my buddy that’s a Mets fan that they’re going to be telling the tale of David Wright the rest of his life. Guy was better than Longoria over the beginning of their careers and then one freak pitch and his career is ostensibly over.
Sandy Kazmir - January 27, 2012
i don't think you can make the case wright was better than longo. he had one season betetr than longo's best, but if you look at any 2, 3, or 4 year stretch longo's better.
rglass44 - January 27, 2012
Evan probably picks it better with the glove, but Wright was no slouch during his good years.
Sandy Kazmir - January 29, 2012
all the more reason they could trade Castellanos, with Miggy blocking him there until VMart's gone.
pudieron89 - January 27, 2012
That post on the Marlins' home run feature is priceless
Although some of the comments are even more so. I guess I just wasn’t paying enough attention before, but that thing is awful.
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
if by awful you mean fucking amazing and i'm super excited to see it in action in a few short months, then accurate!
pudieron89 - January 27, 2012
So glad we get most Marlins broadcasts in Tampa
Warde - January 27, 2012
Regarding the homeless shelter thing
I’m not sure the teams would actually be on the hook for anything, since they don’t own the buildings. Seems like the state would have to show that that team prevented or rejected the use of the facility for that purpose.
I mean, I’d love to make owners poney up for their own stadiums. Taxpayers footing the bill for millionaire/billionaires is just absurd. But this doesn’t sound well thought-out. Then again, it’s Tallahassee, so I’m repeating myself.
nomoredevil - January 27, 2012
That is correct
But imagine the cleanup before events. I get the idea – you have a large space that isn’t being used, so this is a public use – but it also will cost real taxpayer money, and then where do you stick all the people ‘living’ there the other 200 days a year?
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
On the catwalks?
maris61 - January 27, 2012
That Marlins monstrosity is amazing.
Wonder who dings it first with a homerun!
Also, Dan Wheeler signed with the Indians
d.russ - January 27, 2012 via mobile
....
Warde - January 27, 2012
What is is supposed to be?
Besides huge
nomoredevil - January 27, 2012
This
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
420
Ben Tumbling - January 27, 2012
Garish
Hideous
Distracting
Unnecessary
Ridiculous
Other adjectives come to mind. And to think that people’s tax dollars are paying for this.
maris61 - January 27, 2012
I think you forgot Awesome.
I know I’m in the minority, but I love it.
Steve Slowinski - January 27, 2012
this
pudieron89 - January 27, 2012
Random thought: What about Josh Phelps on a minor league deal?
Hits lefties
Imperialism32 - January 27, 2012
Wow haven't his name since 2007 it seems
Ben Tumbling - January 27, 2012
haven't heard*
Ben Tumbling - January 27, 2012
Didn't he retire?
Brickhaus - January 27, 2012
Played in Italy last year apparently
Imperialism32 - January 27, 2012
Red Sox signed John Maine!
WATCH OUT, AL EAST!
SandalsNoPants - January 27, 2012
lol
benderbrodriguez - January 27, 2012
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