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The Rays Tank: The Orioles Are Gettin' Busy

With the Yankees and Red Sox both remaining quiet this offseason -- well, minus the recent Montero-Pineda trade -- I was holding out hope that the AL East wouldn't end up getting that much more difficult going into 2012. The Yankees certainly look like a challenging team, but the Red Sox still have rotation issues and the Blue Jays and Orioles have remained relatively status quo.

Well, up until now. The Orioles are apparently seriously thinking about making a run at Prince Fielder, which is utterly baffling to me. Fielder would make the Orioles better, no question about it, and he'd help them for multiple years in the future. But the Orioles aren't close to contending; they have too many holes on their team and too many prospects that still haven't quite made it yet. Maybe they think they can compete in 2013 -- and hey, Fielder would help them then -- but that's a bit of a stretch in the AL East and would involve more than a bit of good fortune.

Sometimes signing a star player can work out for a struggling franchise, but if the Orioles are serious about Fielder, this looks eerily similar to the Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez signings back in 2004. Good players, but they aren't going to turn the team into a contender overnight.

In other Orioles news, they signed Wilson Betemit to a one-year, two year major-league deal WITH an option. There are also grumblings that starter Brian Matusz is an entirely "different human" than he was a year ago this time, prompting the question: when did he become a shapeshifter? In all seriousness, I've always liked Matusz and wanted to see him reach his potential -- just not against the Rays -- so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this is legit.

  • To all those early morning radio hounds, Jason will be on the 1010 AM morning show at 8:30 this morning.
  • So the mainstream media just now found out that the Rays are interested in Jeff Keppinger. Apparently we weren't crazy when we pointed out Keppinger's Twitter account last week and his suspicious "The Rays are talking with me" type tweets.
  • It's official, Dave Cameron is a robot. The dude never blinks.
  • Interested in the nitty gritty financial details of why the Red Sox traded Marco Scutaro? I didn't think so, but here's the link anyway. The luxury tax isn't necessarily straightforward, and trading Scutaro actually frees up a large chunk of space for the Sox.
  • Historical Devil Rays alert: so Randy Winn can play some hoops. I'd never heard this story before, but he once sunk a half-court shot during a LA Clippers game and won himself a free car.
  • Looking for more takes on the Carlos Pena signing? There are a number of them out there at this point, so read around.
  • John Sickels ranks all 30 MLB farm system over at MinorLeagueBall; the Rays came in 7th.

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Comments

Yeah we don't seem so crazy now.

I gotta admit it is nice that there apparently was some legs to that rumor. Even though we were going out on a limb a little bit, it’s still nice to beat the big boys to the punch.

The Betemit contract is for two years and an option.
Wow, that's insane and I love the guy
guess that massive babip-fueld wOBA should play well in Camden. hope he bashes against some yanks and sawx pitching.
So even though the Sox cleared 7.67 million (over 6 million) when they traded Scutaro, I still don't get what they are doing

Especially when they turn around and sign Cody Ross for 3 million? Isn’t Cody Ross the definition of a player that you can live without? And this is after they guaranteed Nick Punto of all people 2 years and 3.5 million and while they are still trying to sign Roy Oswalt, which would definitely put them past the tax threshold. If they really were dead set on dealing Scutaro, then why trade Lowrie?

Not that I’m complaining or anything, I’d just like someone to explain it to me.

yeah they're making a run at Oswalt

sign lefty-masher for $3mil cherington’d!

Keppinger Rumor

Has it reached the Statue of Limitations of a Rays rumor to be true?

Seems that every time a rumor about the Rays interest in a player is mentioned the rumor is confirmed in2 hours…anything longer than that and its just smoke.

Good point.

For all we know Crasnick read the same tweets we did.

Unfortunately for the O's they have to overpay for FAs

Betemit getting two years is an example. Signing Fielder would be another. Much like the Tigers did when they signed Ivan Rodriguez and the Nationals signing Jayson Werth, these teams have to prove their serious about contending at some point and signinng these players to obvious over valued deals is their way to show it

Fielder gives a nice presence

the team’s offense isn’t old and deteriorating anymore.

Adam Jones (25), JJ Hardy (28), Nick Markakis (27), Mark Reynolds (27), & Matt Weiters (25) can do some damage.

Adding a Prince Fielder (27 soon to be 28) makes a lot of sense to me.

Orioles path is on winning through scoring and they’re going to have to continue down that path and hope to find some pitching along the way.

Markakis has regressed, though, and Jones isn't very good.
nor is Reynolds.
Reynolds

Is what we thought he was….!!!

116 wRC+ last year isn't impressive considering his defense.
he was better after shifting to 1B I thought?
116 doesn't play as well at 1B

Its very nice at 3B.

especially not with his glove
kotch's 125 was pretty good for us there last year.
5th best wRC+ for a Rays career
narrowly behind jose canseco
he had a bad year, agreed.

Markakis hasn’t lived up to expectations and may be overpaid but he’s not a bad player (quite consistent last 3 years no?)

not very durable

just had off-season oblique surgery as well.

durable?

now come with it:

2007 = 161 games
2008 = 157 games
2009 = 161
2010 = 160
2011= 160

How much more durable do you want?

always seems like something is nagging him. Odd to see his numbers decline as they have in his peak years
Adam Jones is average, Markakis is a little above average, Hardy is good, and Weiters will be a stud.

They just are not a good team.

nope not a good team

but not a bad offense if you add Prince Fielder to the lineup.

Still a bad team in 2012.

agree with this
Spot on

Luckily the Rays have chosen a longer term strategy of investing in their farm system and being loyal to their home grown talent in order to prove they are serious about contending.

Why should the Orioles try to pretend to be serious contenders?

The talent level there is considerably below the rest of the division. Betemit isn’t the type of players you commit 2+ years to, and I’m one of his biggest cheerleaders

I just told you and gave examples--re-read it
Good morning to you to!

That’s a nice scenario in a fantasy world, but reality is they’d have to overpay SEVERAL players to stand a chance at finishing as high as third in this division. They’re wasting money

how often is a slugger of Prince's caliber available this late into the offseason on the free market?

it just doesn’t happen, could be their best chance.

I'm fine with that kind of signing

But where was the market for Betemit that dictated giving him 2 yrs and an option? Outside of my obsession with him, nobody, and I mean nobody, was talking about him.

I need to hit the O’s up for a job because I’m clearly as inept as they are :)

maybe they'll trade

Reynolds to a team that needs a 1b like the Indians??!!!

Punto and several other utility types got two year deals

Like basically everyone the Dodgers signed that was terrible.

And the Orioles won’t hire you unless you are one of Angelos’s cronies.

Somebody else must have been interested right?
If they sign Fielder for 7 years and add a SP a year either FA, trade or develop them, they're not that far off

While i wouldn’t give Betemit two years, that may have been the only way they get him over other teams

Really?

They are really far off.

It's what the Tigers did following there 175 loss season or whatever it was. Add 1-2 guys every year for 3-4 years.

You get Prince this year, and they should be taking a run at Edwin. Next year you get a better starter and big bat LFer, year after that you get another starter plus whatever hole isn’t filled by Bundy, Machado, etc… Tigers had the benefit of a weaker division, but I always find it baffling when people say, “You can’t sign this guy you’re so far off.” At some point you have to take that first step, and if it’s just money, well better to go to a player that might bring fans in then continue to see attendance dwindle during these bridge years.

if you can trade for an MVP-caliber bat and develop arguably the best starter in baseball that helps too.
Absolutely, the Orioles development crew has got to be worst in class, but they've got talent down there.

Britton was pretty nasty, you just have to look for incremental gains, most teams don’t do what the Rays did going from 70 to 95 and most that do that fall off the following year. Better to look to add marginally better players than the one’s you’ve got.

no disagreement here. they consistantly botch developing players.
Didn't they fire the whole staff?
i dont think so. if they did, im sure they hired more cronies.
believe the O's

re-assigned their entire scouting department around Christmas.

It was what was considered a major shake up.

Wasting money is inherent to the Splash signing.

The money spent on the splash signing can not only be judged on the standings in the division race. Fan interest, advertisers and corporate accounts all count. Did the A’s really think overpaying for Cocco Crisp would get them into the playoffs? They had to make a token splash signing to show they were “serious” about winning now.

The court of public opinion

At some point, even teams that are perpetual bottom feeder, must justify to their fans and corporate sponsors that they strive to be serious contenders. Most often it’s with a splash overpriced signing that ultimately will not allow them to achieve making the playoffs, but will allude to the team as being serious about winning.

and giving Betemit 2 yrs plus an option instills confidence?

The O’s fans I know are all pissed about this signing

strawman in place
How many dollars is the deal for, all I've seen is mention of the years?
it's not impossible that they have a massive bounceback from their pitchers, especially when you consider their performance vs. expectations last season.

could be a dangerous team.

I like some of their pitchers, especially Jim Johnson

Defense on that team is an issue and the offense is very much station to station. Even a massive bounceback would make it tough to be an 82 win team, IMO.

but that would be considered a massive win and would set them up nicely for 2013 with some confidence

i mean, after 2007 to 2008 I don’t rule anything out.

interesting point
i dont buy this argument. teams may believe it and take part, but i dont buy it being good business.
Rays also interested in Edgar Renteria

I’m guessing they view him or Keppinger as the .800 OPS RHB option at first base.

Oh god please no

I don’t even like his range at 1st

Take a pass on an old Renteria?
I dont even like his range on the bench
What? Check the facts, son.
Do you really see that's where they'd use these guys?

I don’t. I see it as the end of the line for Johnson and either a trade or demotion for Brignac

Edgar Renteria makes a nice hatrack

That’s his MLB effectiveness these days

you are way off base here.

his uzr at ss has been positive 3 years running. that year he was -.7/150. the year before he was -5. at worst we’re probably talking a -5 defensive ss who has put up just sub-LA wRC+ recently.

Hits lefties well though.
exactly. in the last 2 years he's combined for 600 PAs and 2.2 WAR. Why the hell wouldn't you want him?
Does this shift S-Rod to 2B vs LHP

and Zobrist to 1B or RF?

Keppinger has no business playing SS

other than on an emergency basis. Zero range. He’d more likely spot start at 2B vs. LHP, with Zobrist moving to 1B.

I doubt Renteria’s a better SS than S-Rod at this point in Renteria’s career, either, though I haven’t seen him play much lately.

he still rates well.
Renteria & Keppinger have remarkably similar career stats

against LHP:

Renteria: .304/.383/.841
Keppinger: .324/.371/.852

I doubt either is being considered for their defense, since both have poor range. They’re obvious replacements/PH’s for Pena in key games/AB’s vs. LHP’s.

renteria is better with the glove than kep who is probably the better hitter at this point.
maybe my visual library has him confused with Miguel Tejada

I’ve never thought of him as rangy and rather someone that gets to what is hit at him

i doubt he's rangy, but he has the arm strength and sure-handedness to put up good uzrs.
That makes sense - thanks for catching my visual bias
Yup. EJ will definitely go away if Kepp makes it

He will back-up all INF spots, including 1B, much like that guy we had in 2011 whose names escapes me.

Why the hate for EJ?
Um, the 25-man roster limit hates him, not me.
neither of those players are coming anywhere near the 25-man roster

unless there’s some sort of plague outbreak in the dugout

Montgomery needs a backup shortstop
So many interesting relievers left on the market.

Cruz, Wheeler, AArdsma, Gonzalez among a few

aardsma is a FA? whoa. remember talk about him for Montero...
im not sure he's ready opening day.
neither was Benoit--love the Rays depth and ability to allow guys like Aardsma to come around slowly
exactly. that would be perfect.
i would LOVE signing aardsma to a milb deal. that would be huge. closer upside for $1mil? DO IT FRIEDSY
I mentioned his name a while back and nobody seemed too excited.

If we can get him on a minor league deal, that will be pretty big.

wow. he wont be ready for a while:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/07/david-aardsma-begins-throwing-not-taking-offers-yet/

Interesting

Maybe Wuertz is a safer bet

yeah. unless you can get him to a deal that includes an option, id agree.

even if he’s back post-AS break, id imagine he’s going to struggle to find his command.

I'm holding out for a $1 million dollar deal for Maggs

I want one MIFer and the last spot to a Maggs-type

Also still think the Rays move on a catcher, most likely via trade

Hundley and Soto come to mind

im in for that. problem is there isnt much room for either.
There is if you trade Niemann or Davis
room for a BP arm
i'm hoping Niemann brings a catcher

Niemann or Davis and Brignac for Huindley

hot name around these parts lately.

ill admit to knowing very, very little about him. any reports on his defense? im hesitant to throw another jaso back there. if we could nab 3 arb. years of good catcher defense with pop that would be pretty sweet. that does seem like a fair amount to give up, though.

I'd like to see the Lobaton/Chirinos portion of the platoon shake out first

Molina is a stopgap, but the larger portion of playing time is up for whoever comes out and takes it. Chirinos’s bat is really exciting, guy had the platoon advantage for just 7% of his plate appearances last year since Shopp was getting all the lefties. I’d love to see what he could do with a legit chance. If you don’t like his defense then you always have Molina to bring in for the later innings.

I'm excited to see Chirinos too.

While his arm was awful, the rest of his defense certainly wasn’t.

he needs to stop throwing like a SS.
From what Randy was saying last year, it seems like his footwork is more of the issue, possibly slowing down his arm

Who better to be an OTJ supervisor than a Molina? It’s going to be exciting if we see him embracing that leadership moment in Spring Training

it's footwork and a long thowing motion (why i say throwing like a SS). he doesnt get up and fire with a short-arm release.

he does some like pivot thing then whips the ball like he’s just fielded a grounder to his left.

Hopefully he's willing to listen, maybe Shopp just wasn't speaking his language
Interesting that he only played 98 games last year and didn't have an injury.

He didn’t get much playing time when he went back to AAA. Maybe they wanted to work some more with his defense?

i thought he did have an injury (or was that in fall ball?)
Winter ball, actually.
Hundley is better than Jaso. A lot more pop, not as terrible behind the plate.
if we keep but one MIFer, our bench is
huh?
here

Back up catcher

MIF

Fuld

Maggs

start guyer in AAA and DFA helliot?

the one thing is im not sure mags is a better option than guyer or canzler at this point.

though since both have options, id be fine paying him near nothing. then they sit in aaa waiting on their chance.

trading bj/reid makes more and more sense everyday.

at $1 million i'll take that risk
Love the possibility of Maggs

We need some Lefty mashers

Give Guyer some burn

I think we have to find out what we have in Guyer. If he shows he is a factor it softens the blow of losing BJ down the road. I like Mags as well but we can pick up a 38 year old, DH type for the stetch run if Guyer and Cantzler aren’t providing righty punch.I believe in Guyer.

How can you want more? At this point we have to see which of the internal options work out since we already have overlapping plan Bs if it doesn't work out
see i could go either way on this.

a lot of it has to do with how much faith the FO has in Canzler to hit lefties. also how much they are looking to move upton.

seeing as how guyer/canzler have options, then i have no problem stacking up on bats. protects from injury/ineffectiveness which is a pretty big risk with scott especially.

If he cost nothing, I mean 0, then I don't really see the issue as I already have Guyer starting in Durham, but Maggs is even less of a glove man than Canzler at this point

and he’s living on his name more than anything. His “hot streak” last year involved getting up around .275 wOBA. The year prior he was above league average, for the most part, until he got injured half way through. I just don’t think he brings enough to the table:

wasn't his #s vs LHP better?

I wouldn’t want Maggs as a full-time starter but as a DH vs LHP? I think you could make the case for that.

So you want a guy that can't play any position to take up a roster spot so that he can face 150 lefties a year?

At least Krapler could play some defense. I’d rather give that to Canzler who could at least fake it in the field if need be.

In most cases, no

but Maggs has been one of the best hitters vs LHP in the bigs. Had over a .450 wOBA in 2010. I’d be willing to put him at DH to see if that keeps him healthy, and see if his bat still has one more year. It’s worth the risk.

With the downside being so minimal it's probably worth a shot, I just want to get my Canz on ASAP
his wRC+ the last 4 years is 127, 112, 132, and then 72.

I’d be willing to take the chance that primarily having the platoon advantage, only playing DH, and being well rested could see him return to his 10-20% above LA batting numbers. Like I said, depth is where we always make our bread.

I've been banging this drum for quite some time now

Maggs as DH vs LHP, Scott to 1B. Renteria SS vs LHP, S-Rod to 2B, Zobrist to RF. That’s a solid LHP lineup. Soto for Davis and you have a lineup of:

Jennings, Upton, Longoria, Zobrist, Maggs, Soto, Scott, S-Rod, Renteria

Maggs looks awfully done to me but hey you never know
maybe in OF

DHing might be exactly what he needs.

I was talking about his bat
and last year he sucked at both, for the most part, agreed

for a low cost, his career numbers vs lhp is awesome. It’s worth the risk to see if he can still rake the lefties. If not, then what are you out? 1-2 months of Guyer? You can call him up before the all star break and there’s your in house upgrade.

Kurt Suzuki? I'm not sure of his contract situation though.

Trade Davis for him and one of their 1B, I’d like that.

Anyone know of his contract situation?
yeah, it's not good

$5MM in 2012, $6.5MM in 2013, and an $8.5MM 2014 opinion with escalators. Would need to get cash back from Oakland, and I don’t know if they do that sort of thing any more.

It’s a shame, because if Oakland would pick up half the salary, Suzuki would be a good fit.

Ugh, never mind.

Just not many catchers out there, but Soto seems like a decent fit. I’d be glad if we traded Niemann and Chirinos for him. It just seems like all the possible fits for us, whether it’s infield or catcher, they all would come from the NL. I don’t know if that’s a cause for concern, but we have to make something work…

yup

I don’t understand the people who think career backup catcher Jose Molina, at age 37 — the same Molina who hasn’t gotten as many as 200 plate appearances since the George W. Bush administration; the same Molina who has never gotten as many as 300 plate appearances — is going to be the everyday catcher for your 2012 Tampa Bay Rays.

Maybe the Rays are a lot higher on Lobaton/Chirinos than they appear to be. But right now, I’m kind of befuddled by this.

Exactly

I really hope we aren’t high on Lobaton/Chirinos. In fact, I hope trade one of them along withDavis/Niemann for a catcher.

Nobody knows what we have there, why would you trade an unknown commodity that could work out?
That's a good point

If we did trade one of them, it looks more like a throw-in. I’m sure we’d rather keep the depth, as we don’t have much throughout the system at catcher. Thanks for pointing that out.

Chirinos faced same-handers 93% of the time last year, I'm curious to see what he could do actually having the platoon advantage

Hopefully Lobaton is as good as advertised behind the plate, but I honestly haven’t seen enough either way to be a competent judge.

I don't feel good about either being our primary catcher this season
Then you'd be described as risk-averse. You want to see something before you feel confident. Can't blame you, I'd love to have Weiters back there for 120 games a year

and figure out the rest. I’d just rather watch these guys fail before passing judgement that there is a better alternative out there.

What would you say is a reasonable expectation for each?
Not a whole lot of data, but

Chirinos: .310 wOBA, -3 Defense, .8 WAR in 250 PA
Lobaton: .285 wOBA, +3 Defense, .4 WAR in 225 PA
Molina: .280 wOBA, +5 Defense, .3 WAR in 200 PA

I’m not sure if these are conservative or pessimistic, but they’re mostly from the gut. That’s a 1.5 WAR catcher. You can probably also lower the PA numbers as a pinch hitter may end up getting 30-50 of those. I see the season starting with Molina/Lobaton with Chirinos at Durham working on defense. As the season goes on they have the flexibility to bring Chirinos for whichever guy isn’t working out as they hoped.

I don’t think Hundley or anyone else “out there” could be expected to put up a greater than 1.5 WAR over the season.

Hundley was worth 3 wins in 80 games last year and 1.3 in 85 the year before.
Just ran a quick xBABIP and it spits out .309, he was at .362 last year

He had the luck of the Kotchman and that won’t continue. If you give him around 300 PA (what he’s had last three years) and a .315 wOBA (.316, .308, .354 last three) and consider him neutral defensively then you’re talking a 1.2 WAR.

.315 wOBA in Petco as a catcher seems like it should be higher than 1.2 WAR.

Using the Goal Seek feature in Excel, it seems that FG adjusts for Petco as if the league wOBA is .298 (WOW). If you plug in a .315 wOBA, 0 DRs, and 0 BRRs, and 300 PAs you get a WAR of 2.1. That’s pretty good.

Petco doesn't hurt righties nearly as much as lefties. A righty in SD is probably as equally hurt as a righty at the Trop

Statcorner has RHB with a 96 at Trop for wOBA and 92 for Petco so he would expect a slight uptick just based on new park. Good point, I just don’t think the payoff exceeds the costs by enough.

yeah. we dont really know the cost, so ill hold off on that judgement.
Yup. Let's just trade for a catcher and not worry about bad catchers all year.

I’ll say it—I LOVE Hundley more and more

How do you know they are bad catchers? Do you not like their glove work? Plate discipline?

Do we have anything to evaluate them on at this point? Sure Molina probably won’t hit a lick, but his defensive value has been stated repeatedly on this and other sites. Perhaps I’m biased because I don’t mind having a black hole or two at the bottom of the lineup if it means that mistakes don’t happen. Ever. In the field.

What I was trying to day is not take the chance of bad catchers.

While Hundley isn’t a sure 3WAR player either, he has a solid chance of getting a higher WAR than the numbers you put out on Chironos.

FWIW Hundley is near the bottom in terms of framing

-12 per 120 games, according to Mike Fast’s research.

Speaking of good framers with good offensive numbers

David Ross, ATL backup.

love him. so do they, though.
We wouldn't have to deal with that all year, with Molina in the team.

If Hundley play 110 games and Molina 50, I think our catching defense is reasonable, not to mention Hundley would add a boost to our offense.

The offense will be fine as long as Longo, Joyce, Pena, and Zobrist stay healthy

This is probably the best on-paper offense we’ve seen since 2007.

Agreed, but does that mean we should stop making it better?

Apparently, Hundley is a bit better than Jason was defensively—and we dealt with that. If Hundley plays 110 and Molina 50, our defense should be ok for next season.

I guess I just don't get these crusades of putting up such a fight to get a .5 WAR upgrade, at best, while spending money and talent to acquire said player

Hundley projects to have around a .315 wOBA this year. You’re putting wayyyyyy to much weight on last year that is obviously an outlier.

I'd usually agree, but where do we put Davis/Nuemann?

Why not upgrade the team by trading either one? I agree—Chrinos does have a 3WAR potential, but we just don’t know. Hundley put up 3WAR in 80 games last year. I know he had a high BABIP, but I think moving him to the Trop and letting him play 30 more games should easily put him around the same WAR. I’m just thinking he has a much higher floor than Chirinos, and that’s why we should we thinking of when deciding what to do at catcher this year.

There's so much speculation here that it's difficult to take seriously
That's all it is, speculation.
this offense, to me, looks way better going in than '07 did.

even using after the fact analysis, id be surprised if they only posted a wRC+ of 103.

looking at it, 2007 was the worst offense we've had since that year.

2009: 110
2010: 107
2008: 105
2011/2007: 103

That's crazy with the seasons that Beej and Los had, I guess no Longo is a huge tradeoff
and a bunch of shit in the lineup.

also, LA in 2007=/=LA in 2011.

Good point, using my lineup post and projecting some PA #s I get the Rays having

10.8 wRAA against lefties
29.8 wRAA against righties (both assume .330 lg avg.)
For a total of 40.6 wRAA
Last year they had +17.2
+40 last year would have them as the 8th best offense

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhdYS83t3IB7dHN4dU9wRFgxcVNUZGFJdGRxWWRmQVE&hl=en_US#gid=0

last year they had the 7th highest wRC+.

I do think FGs park adjustments are a bit strong, though.

The 1.5 WAR on all 3 of our guys, I mean.

Then, if Hundley can match that 3WAR from last season, we are taking a possible 4WAR from the position this year. I hear you on the high BABIP, but I think he can put up similar numbers with a move to the Trop. It just seems like Hundley/Molina is much more of a sure thing than our 3 guys we have now. Plus, if you look at the trade, it wouldn’t hurt us one bit if we traded Niemann for him.

And I could be grossly under-representing Chirinos because when you don't have the data I think it makes sense to be pessimistic

If Chirinos is a neutral-defensive glove and a .320 to .330 wOBA then he’s a 3 WAR player. We really have no idea of what he is capable. I know that Hundley is coming off a career year, would cost $2M, and would also cost a prospect or another player. That seems like an awful lot of tradeoff for a marginal upgrade at best. Sure, if you take Hundley’s most optimistic projections and Chiriton’s most pessimistic then it looks pretty sound, but why would you do that?

Like I said, Hundley has a better chance at putting up 3WAR than Chirinos.

You even said it earlier when I was talking about us possibly trading Lobaton/Chirinos, why trade him when he POSSIBLY be good? That’s the thing, I’m not saying Chirinos is a. Ad catcher, I just think Hundley is more of a sure thing with higher upside—and his contract status would make it a good trade if we got him.

Is it really a bad thing to have two good catchers?

Doesn’t have to be an either/or. I prefer both.

The point is that you're saying that Chiriton is not and will never be good

when you have nothing to base that on other than they haven’t been good so far. Why pay market value* for Hundley when he’s not a sure thing in any way when you have two options that very well could be the same player already on your team making the league min?

*Salary and trade bait

Catching, like pitching is a rare commodity

I understand if you are high on Chirinos that you may feel its redundant and a waste of allocating resources to trade for Hundley. I think if you acquire Hundley, you can have a awesome tandem in Hundley/Chirinos for a while…and with Chirinos on the cheap, the total cost of the position is minimal. If the Rays can get a better deal for Davis/Niemann, I’m all for it. But I’m also fine with doubling down on a hard to find position.

Just wondering, do you think we should move our 6th SP to the pen?

Or trade him for some other catcher, or what? This has nothing to do with the Hundley/Chirinos argument

I'd be fine with either Davis or Niemann out of the pen to start the year

We’re looking to maximize team WAR not individual player’s.

Fair enough

I hope we can get a catcher or 1B prospect out of either one…for some reason I’m not on board with m ing one to the pen with all the depth we have.

I'd trade either one for Duda or a similar 1-3 1B that has proven he can hit ML pitching

I feel we have options at C now and later, where 1B options are Malm/Sale and that’s a bit off if ever. Though, I clearly have a higher opinion of Chirinos/Lobaton than you.

I'm more hesitant to trade for one of those guys with Los and Scott in the fold.

Ideally for me we trade one for a high impact prospect or two that is close to the majors.

The market seems to have dried up for them

Maybe I’m just pessimistic. I’d be more than happy for a Destin Hood type return.

frieds is works like a thief in the night
No doubt about that

Its just…I want to see us make some kind of trade, letting Chirinos catch is just boring. :)

Are you not satisfied with all the moves the Rays have made so far?

I’m not talking about individually, I’m referring to the quantity of moves.

I love them all--I just want more! haha
Can you clarify?

I’m not sure what you mean, maybe you read my post wrong or I am reading this wrong.

You're saying that Chiriton is not and will never be as good as Hundley

So we should not groom them to be future players in this organization. We should turn our back on them because Hundley has a higher floor and ceiling. These are the things that you’re saying both explicitly and implicitly. You’re basing this on a career year by Hundley in 2011 and the fact that you have no data on the internal options so you just assume that they’ll never provide utility of any kind.

*Chirinos. ;)
Chiriton

Chirinos+Lobaton

I can't believe I missed that.
Then that's just my opinion.

I agree, Chirinos very well could be just as good as Hundley— but I’m just not buying it.

I hope we don't take the chance of letting either one start in a year like this.

Especially when we have SP’s to trade. I just hope we aren’t comfortable with our current position.

He has been worth an average of 2.5 WAR.

I don’t see cost as an issue as long as we are not giving up much. How about Bortnick for Suzuki?

the 2014 option really is a killer

I like Suzuki, but that $8.65MM team option (with buyout) becomes $9.25MM guaranteed if Suzuki is a regular starter in 2013. Of course, if Suzuki isn’t a regular starter in 2013, then why are you buying him and paying him six and a half million bucks?

Other than that, I’d be on board with it.

Like Torrez said, they would probably have to eat some of that, which they might not like.
The more I hear of Hundley, the more I like him.

What really would be nice is getting both him and Blanks. Maybe something like Davis/Bortnick/Ruggiano for Hundley/Blanks? That’s certainly cheaper than Suzuki.

The only issue I could see with trading for Blanks is trading for a guy taht doesn't project to be a starter 70% of the time and will be going to arb. next year.
unless, of course, they’re ready to just give him away.

by rglass44 on Jan 24, 2012 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
He could be that 4th bench player

iplayers think he could be valuable to us in the long run

This, my friends, us why phones are hardly worth buying.

I mean is why, of course.

Blue Jays extend Brandon Morrow

Buy out arb2/arb3 and 1 FA year at 3/20, then an option for the 2nd FA year at 10 M. Not a bad deal

not at all. though he could never figure it out (i assume he will).
He may be one of those rare exceptions to FIP.

He just has a bunch of hittable. For two straight years now, he has had an FIP more than a run below his ERA. Those two years are the only time he has started too. This third year of sample size should be very important.

The Jays had an ERA of 4.33 in 2011 with an FIP of 4.29, so it isn’t like his team is struggling with this issue.

thats what people said about yields prior to 2011, though.
???

Shields had one year of extreme variance where his BABIP was .341.

Morrow has had two consecutive (and the only two years he has started) years and his BABIP has been .342 and .299. Luck played its part in 2010 (his FIP was actually 1.33 lower that year), but it is hard to say so in 2011.

Shields was almost always above team average in BABIP
This

Shields’s BABIP would blow up in front of any other defense probably

I'm talking about FIP.

And Shields has had a higher BABIP than the average Rays pitcher in 5 of his 5 full seasons. 2010 was also the only time the difference was more than .020.

Shields hasn’t had a lot of bad luck.

he had a huge amount of bad luck in 2010
I'm not arguing that.
Well, his W-L record the last few years seems unlucky
I'm unsure of this and would like to be corrected if I am wrong.

But wouldn’t a BABIP spike cause your FIP to be lower because you’ll get a higher K/9 even if your K% stayed the same (more batters reaching base = more batters faced per inning).

There could be a self correction or whatever with a higher BB/9 and HR/9 through the same factor.

You hit the nail on the head. Even though K/9 is inflated, BB/9 and HR/9 are too. So basically if your FIP is above ~3, a high BABIP would artificially make your FIP higher

The impact is marginal though

Ya, I think I talked myself through the answer as I was asking it.

So really K/BB is what matters in the end. And a higher K% getting you less balls in play to be adjusted to league average BABIP.

His FIP was lower than his ERA the year before as well (but not as much as I remembered).
Yes.

2009: 4.14 ERA 4.02 FIP
2010: 5.18 ERA 4.24 FIP

much bigger difference in 2010.

Morrow's career BABIP and FIP are fairly close to league average

His LOB% is the reason he’s always underperformed I think, which is more of a skill than one might think

Moneyball doesn't deserve any oscars.
woah... not cool, dude.
I didn't like it that much.
WHERE'S THE PROGRESSIVE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OR REASONED DEBATE!?!?!?!?
You have read the book, right?

It seems to me that it strayed away from what the book was about too much. Sure, they had to to draw more interest, but it was still boring anyway.

the book is what drew me to DRB essentially (and what pumped me up when we traded aubrey for an old no-power SS that walked a lot).
i'm not trashing the book, just the movie.
i didnt assert you were
i liked it, but i have pretty bad taste in movies compared to most of the brilliant ottotd crew.

id rather kill myself than sit through tree of life.

though i dont think it's award worthy in the least.

it’s a cute movie that has some funny parts and gets baseball and sabermetrics in to the spotlight.

unless, of course, they're ready to just give him away.
it's boring, too long, the characters don't get developed...if it was a player it'd be replacement-level.
Art Howe agrees
I didn't know Carlos Pena was a tall, white guy
or that scott hatteburg went to Brown.
Or that Spike Jonez is sleeping with Billy Beanes wife
Of that he was an All-Star at the time he was traded when he was hitting .218/.305/.419.
that bothered me
I took that as he was a future All-Star.
yeah
i like the fact that c-pain's career OBP was higher than Hatteburg's going in to that year.
My biggest gripe with the movie was not mentioning the starting pitching.
And barely mentioning tejada
Was he even mentioned?
They showed a frame of a player wearing a tejada jersey
I rather enjoyed Moneyball, but you're probably right
Dan Patrick is claiming that he feels Braun may be found not guilty

He says he is hearing some things.

i hope so
syphilis med is a hella drug - Rick James
What? Is that really the defense? Classic
If Dan Patrick says it then it's got to be true
.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story//id/7467475/tampa-bay-rays-good-other-team?eleven=twelve&addata=2009insdr_mod_mlb_xxx_xxx

ESPN Insider but it’s good to see us getting respect from the generally biased boys

Then in the comment section , all the Yankee fans jump from their windows in panic and denial.
Dammit, Mike Fast's work is off the public domain

Astros hired him.

Very happy for him as we’ve been friends a long time, but his work will be missed

It was actually surprising it took this long
It was

But this year was the first time he set out in earnest to seek a job. He met with several teams in Dallas and I was hoping he was coming this way, but he’s a Texas guy so this makes great sense for he and his family.

Yup great for him. That new Houston GM seems like a perfect mix of saber and scouting

On a related note, Josh Kalk is still with the Rays, right?

Yes to both

Astros are still my NL team so I’m glad they’re getting better, but dammit all, that Jack Cust move sucked

They need the slow podding LF after C Lee leaves
Yup. They were my first favorite MLB team.

Ah, memories of Chris Holt, the Andy Sonnanstine of his day.

When the internet came to our household, AstrosConnection.com was among the first I open up everyday.

astrosdaily.com was mine

I’m in Houston this week and am going to attend the live Astrosline show tomorrow night. At least in 2013, I’ll be able to see the Astros play live every year.

Holy... AstrosDaily.com is still active with the same old format. Frames!
Who gets DFA'd for Pena

Ruggiano?

thatd be my guess
Albert Joe is another possibility
I like Suarez....
Turns out Betemit's deal is $3M over 1st 2 yrs with a $3M option for the third

Good money, just don’t understand multiple guaranteed years

so any idea on the buyout? 3 guaranteed doesnt seem that egregious.
I would guess $1M or less
I think it's a vesting player option, so no buyout

1/3 is probably FMV or less for Betemit, so the second year is kind of a bargain. Good deal by the O’s, if sort of a headscratcher

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