DRaysBay

The SP to pen idea is one I have liked all along

However, we are loaded with pitchers everywhere and if we start putting a SP in there, we risk one of the few guys with options, McGee and Gomes from making the team.

I’d love to see Niemann or Davis traded for prospects at this point, there’s no MLB ready C coming to Tampa at this point.

joeybw - January 23, 2012 reply

It may be impossible to trade Niemann/Davis until almost late March

Edwin Jackson is still a FA, and with next year’s SP class, he won’t do that well either for 2013 so he’s clogging up our market.

Gonna go with no

They held Hellickson to 189 innings last year without having him go to the bullpen, they can do something similar for Moore

Imperialism32 - January 23, 2012 reply

Agreed.

If you are going to put a pitcher in the pen, as opposed to trading one, then make it the worst one (Davis).

Barnacles - January 23, 2012 reply

Please no.

They wouldn’t want him to potentially lower his innings from last year just from the point of getting to 200 or so in 2013. Just use him like Helly and he’ll get around 180 and you can skip a start or 2 through off days.

I just am excited to seeing him pitch and maybe just trying to justify it.

jtmorgan - January 23, 2012 reply

No thanks

No, no, no.

I absolutely hate the idea of Moore to the bullpen. Let him start.

mint420 - January 23, 2012 reply

Zero percent chance this happens.

And why risk it with him? Plenty of pitchers have been been converted to a relief role and have struggled trying to convert back. Lets not mess with the top pitching prospect in baseball please.

Davis will be traded this offseason. It would be awesome if we could get Derek Norris for him.

No way Moore in pen

Every move AF has made this off season has been logical and almost predictable. Scott, Pena and even Rhymes. Radical moves, although sexy sounding just aren’t going to happen. Cobb to AAA since he’ll need additional time to recover from surgery. Moore in the starting rotation with limitation of innings and trading Davis/Niemann for catcher/prospects. If trade not there initially, then Niemann to pen. Everything points to making a run at ring this year before Price etc become too expensive.

RayJzone - January 23, 2012 reply

6 man rotation?

Hi — I’m new to this board, so apologies if this topic has been talked to death earlier.

But I don’t understand why we can’t start with a 6 man rotation. I know the argument about how pitchers have their routines and don’t like them to be altered….but our pitchers often deal with days off, rain outs, etc. and they survive. If need be, you could move things around when there are off days so that, say, Shields and Price are closer to a 5-day schedule with Niemann (who seems like quite a delicate flower), Hellickson and Moore getting longer breaks.

I recall Brian Anderson last year saying that the main reason no one has a 6 man rotation is that few teams have 6 viable starting pitchers — they are lucky to have 5.

So, why not go with six starters?

lizzieray - January 23, 2012 reply

No way we start the season with a 6-man rotation.

I could see something like that happening late in the year—after we trade Davis/Niemann—by calling up Cobb to get a few starts, but just to limit innings for Moore and even Hellickson.

didn't the rays do the 6 man thing

for a couple weeks last season?

It’s ungainly to consider for more than a short time IMO.

tampa_edski - January 23, 2012 reply

yup

towards the end of the season i believe

tbmd - January 23, 2012 reply

Usually, early in the season,

teams don’t even need a 5 man rotation because of the schedule and rain-outs. As noted by sc-monsta1015, it is more likely later in the season when make-up games and tight schedules make it advisable or necessary.

bobr - January 23, 2012 reply

I'm going to be touching on this in a later post, I do believe

http://theraysway.com/articles/why-the-six-man-rotation-would-be-a-bad-idea-for-the-rays-in-2012

I put this together on another site if you don't mind reading something that's pretty dry

This looks at using one all season, there’s probably a case to use one in July-August or other short stretches to keep the younger guys pitch counts down so I’d love to see someone take less of a black and white look at this issue.

Valid question.

With a 6 man rotation, your best pitchers pitch less.

The potential injury avoidance and extended rest don’t offset an innings decrease for a team’s top starters.

Hatfield - January 23, 2012 reply

In my opinion,

Hatfield - January 23, 2012 reply

Moore in the 'pen? No thanks

Even if none of our pitchers are traded, I think starting the season in Durham is more likely than starting in the bullpen.

Niemann or Davis to the pen is more likely than Moore to the pen if you ask me.

joeybw - January 23, 2012 reply

Agreed

Why start him in Durham? He's cost-controlled and he'd be a huge asset to our bullpen

Just saying Moore to the pen seems VERY unlikely.

Pitch count spike wasn't as bad as IP spike for Hellickson

The pitch count is what is to be watched rather than IP totals since all innings are not thrown equally.

Jason Collette - January 23, 2012 reply

trill

Yup

I think as soon as Niemans arb hearing is over his plane ticket will be handed to him.

13frain - January 23, 2012 reply

Where do you think he's going to be traded? There's very little being whispered around in the rumor mills

colorado

StylezMcKoolaid - January 23, 2012 reply

They almost have enough guys to have a Royal Rumble for the 5 spots.

Hatfield - January 23, 2012 reply

Wouldn't Davis have more Trade Value than Niemann considering we just extended his contract?

what do your sources tell you?

StylezMcKoolaid - January 25, 2012 reply

How old are you really? Because if you're anywhere over the age of 18 you have problems

my birthday is 4/20/69. you do the math.

rglass44 - January 25, 2012 reply

don't you have organizational moles to tell you these things?

pudieron89 - January 25, 2012 reply

Seriously though. What are you hearing?

Hatfield - January 25, 2012 reply

I could see Davis being moved to a smaller market team like Pitt, KC, Oak, Col

Dbullsfan - January 23, 2012 reply

Moore Bullpen?

That would be borderline insanity!!!!

MarkFidrych - January 23, 2012 reply

I'm going to go w/ a big fat NO on Moore to the pen.

ItaliaNole - January 23, 2012 reply

Just out of curiousity what makes you think Torres is a lock for AAA but list Cobb with the other 6

if anything I think it would be the other way around. For one Cobb had the injury/condition that took him out of the end of the season and hopefully he will be 100% but we aren’t completely sure, also I would say the outing Torres had against Toronto was just as impressive as Cobb.

Dbullsfan - January 23, 2012 reply

Cobb flat out dominated AAA. He has nothing left to prove there.

Torres still needs to improve his command. Cobb seems like he’s already a finished product

while he did dominate Cobb only has 12 aaa starts

It isn’t the.Rays way to rush him to the majors, especially when there is no need and the difference between him and any of the other 3 would be very marginal

Dbullsfan - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

while he did dominate Cobb only has 12 aaa starts

It isn’t the.Rays way to rush him to the majors, especially when there is no need and the difference between him and any of the other 3 would be very marginal

Dbullsfan - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

damn phone

Dbullsfan - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

rehab after injury

AndrewTorrez - January 24, 2012 reply

Rays have a couple of one trick pony strikeout pitchers in pen already, no need for another one.

Moore in the bullpen is like Mel G. portraying a Israeli man.

not too mention 2, maybe 3 or 4 lefties with Mcgee, Howell, Ramos, and Torres

Dbullsfan - January 23, 2012 reply

even better point.

i don't think ramos makes the team this year.

I'll have a long post up on Niemann tomorrow morning.

Niemann is definitely not the starter the Rays should trade. Davis is the much much better option and I will be extremely dissappointed if we trade Niemann.

absolutely concur.

This

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

I don't want to give away everything in the post, but there is a lot of positive things Niemann has been doing.

Davis, on the other hand, is struggling to adapt.

And Davis' O-Zone Swing% is awful.

What I love about Niemann, without delving into the intricate stats....

is the eye test, how he pitches in big games (sox in particular), how he seems to not be phased by anything, his stature, and when he is on, he is ****ING on. If he can just focus more when he pitches against the Athletics and Royals of the world, he could be a top tier pitcher. My opinion only.

Not really.

Career versus teams with less than .500 record: 3.90 ERA, 2.54 SO/BB ratio.
Career versus teams with .500+ record: 4.44 ERA, 2.04 SO/BB ratio.

I just watched last year alot when he pitched, and was a definite line between the two.

I’m sure in his full career it hasn’t always been like that. Again, eye test haha

Probably had more to do with health, each time he comes off the DL it feels like he gets marginally worse by the start

when he’s on he’s pretty awesome to watch, but that’s anybody

Does it factor in that Niemann's shoulder is ready to pop off at a moment's notice?

Yup.

Fun fact: Niemann has never had a major surgery before. He has had two minor ones, but nothing majors.

Besides, Davis hasn’t shown to be more healthy than Niemann at the MLB level. And once Davis sucks again in 2012, his value will be gone.

Besides Lee and Halladay(pitchers with flawless mechanics and ridiculously strong core), any pitcher's shoulder is due for that.

If we put this on a continuum I would guess that Niemann is much more likely to have a major shoulder surgery than most pitchers in MLB

My contention that Niemann should be traded has very little to do with their abilities and much more to do with Wade’s cost certainty vs. Niemann’s inevitable career-ending injury.

That I agree with Sandy, but I hate predicting something that hasn't occurred yet over production.

Hence why I am a common baseball enthusiast and not a GM haha

Look deeper into Davis' stats.

He sucks. He really does. I see zero reason to be optimistic. On top of that, he has had injury and arm issues.

Look deeper in to Davis' eyes.

Then you’ll know the Truth.

This.

Ben Tumbling - January 23, 2012 reply

I agree

trading Niemann would be really selling low on him, something the Rays don’t seem to do. Davis would bring back more IMO.

+1

How much do remaining FA SP really affect trading Davis/Niemann

IMO someone especially like davis would appeal to a much different demographic, ie a team that isnt making a playoff push, doesnt want to spend big bucks, and values the 6 years of team control. I could see him going to a smaller market team like this versus a team willing to shell out the money for someone like Jackson. Like someone memtioned above, teams like pit, kc, oak, sd, or whoever could make the most sense. I still think oakland is the best match. It would be fun to see a beane/friedman trade.

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

I agree here, I don't expect the FA market has much at all to do with the trade market for Davis or Niems

if davis weren't on that contract,

he’d be a good non-tender candidate, right?

papality - January 23, 2012 reply

I don't know about non-tender, I mean he's not Joe Saunders or anything

no chance

he'd be making 400k

help solve this logjam, though

and he’s too terrible to net much in a trade

papality - January 23, 2012 reply

Trading Price for pennies on the dollar would help the logjam as well, doesn't mean it's a smart move

kinda different, though

price could get significant value back, while what would be a realistic return for davis?

papality - January 23, 2012 reply

A 50-100 prospect or more likely a couple of what ifs at the lower levels

If all his options are picked up and he's only a 1.5 WAR pitcher every year through 2018 then he has a surplus of 11M

If you don’t pick up the options and he’s that same 1.5 WAR guy then his surplus is $14.5M. You can argue that he’ll never be a 1.5 WAR guy let alone every year of that deal, but I’d say go back to the future where you belong.

Sorry I mucked that up a bit

three years guaranteed would be a 12.2M surplus, all options are around 8.6M. If he breaks out then you can sign him at affordable options if he doesn’t you can cut bait. That is the great value that even if you’re wrong about the guy you collect your small win and move on, but if you’re right that he can become a 2-4 WAR type guy then there is a ton of upside.

What makes you think he can be a 2 WAR pitcher?

Doesn't take much to be a 2 fWAR pitcher

He had 0.9 last year & didn’t do anything in the 1st half

He has sucked in the first half the last two years.

He is going to have to mantain that low 4 FIP he had with his improved stuff and have that over a full season.

I think he can do it

Still young enough @ 26 and actually was better in 2011 a little than 2010.

More to work with than Niemann though both may not be around much longer. Depends on how much comes through the system.

He wasn't better in 2011. That's just objectively not true.

He finished 2011 better than 2010

SSS

It's something at least that they can build on hopefully

He came back from the DL & made better adjustments. Hopefully he remembers what he did.

There still is no reason to believe that Davis can be a 2+ win pitcher

Best solution

Hope Archer figures it out this year

bWAR has him at 1.8 in 2010, he's on pace to throw 200 innings this year after 164 in 2010 and 180 last year

It’s quite possible that they’ve been coddling him a bit with the DL stints looking more like giving him a chance to skip a couple starts and keep the arm live. When he has confidence in his curveball and is turning the fastball in on righties he’s flat out nasty. He’s had trouble being that guy over multiple starts, but part of the maturation process is being more consistent. I hope he takes that step forward this year.

Part of it was railing so hard against Edwin Jackson. Here’s a guy that had a BB% of 14.4%, 11.7% & 9.7% that I could not stand watching pitch, but he threw hard and had two good pitches and has turned into a valuable arm with bfWARs of 3.9, 2.8, and 3.6 over the last three years. Part of it is getting out of the AL East, but it’s also combining the the middle to tail of your physical talent with what’s a steadily increasing amount of mental talent. Facing a guy is a million times more effective than video so once you start to see actual tendencies on the mound you can think how to work around that.

I don’t think it would be smart to go on record as saying any player definitively can’t do this or that as I learned a humbling lesson from Casey Kotchman last year. For Wade I think a lot of his issues are between the ears so I hope he can have more trust in his breaking ball and really make some strides.

Don't pretend that you prefer bWAR. After all, that uses ERA.

And Edwin Jackson was striking out more batters than Wade Davis is. In addition to this, batters were swinging and missing at more of Jackson’s pitches than Davis’.

I’m not saying that Davis definitively won’t be a good pitcher. I just see the odds as very low and that a lot of his value is based off of previous prospect rankings.

Jackson wasn't strking out more batters than Davis when he was with the Rays

Jackson in his 3 years in Tampa, ages 22-24 vs. Davis so far in his career, ages 23-25.

Jackson: 380.2-IP, 15.3-K%, 11.0-BB%, 2.6-HR%, 22-LD%
Davis: 388.1-IP, 15.3-K%, 8.3-BB%, 2.9-HR%, 19-LD%

Jackson’s last season in Tampa, age 24 season, vs. Davis last year, age 25 season.

Jackson: 183.1-IP, 13.6-K%, 9.7-BB%, 2.9-HR%, 22-LD%
Davis: 184.0-IP, 13.2-K%, 7.9-BB%, 2.9-HR%, 18-LD%

While I feel Davis has been disappointing the past two seasons, I think it’s to early to write him off. Davis has been very comparable to Jackson during his tenure with the Rays. Considering his age and past top prospect pedigree, I feel he could still turn it around and become a decent SP, just like E-Jax has.

ReyL - January 23, 2012 reply

Thanks for the support, those numbers sure are similar and I remember how frustrated I'd get with Jax

They’re not identical as each has (had?) different issues to work on, but talking in absolutes is a good way to end up looking foolish.

No worries, I just think Davis still has a chance to turn it around.

I don’t like to write players off after only 2 years, especially if they were players who have had past MiLB success and top prospect status.

Now if we can trade him and get something worthwhile in return, I’m all for it.

ReyL - January 23, 2012 reply

we need to trade wade for the next Joyce so that he can develop his slider and become a journeyman #3-4.

id be fine with that.

though i think you may be underrating ejax. over the last 3 years he was the 19th best starter in baseball per fWAR with 11.2 wins. id say thats betetr than a 3/4.

rglass44 - January 24, 2012 reply

journeyman in terms of his lack of sticking with one team. he's been a very good starter in arizona, cws, and stl now.

hope he doesn’t come back to the ALE and nohit us again.

Those numbers are quite different than the K/9 numbers, but I do actually like them more.

Like I said, I’m not writing him off. Davis has been awful so far and I’m starting to question his upside.

Also, Jackson developed a good slider after leaving the Rays organization, so that could have a large effect on the K numbers.

I agree his upside is not as high as a few years ago.

I think his ceiling is probably more of a 200 inning SP3 now. For the Rays I think his upside is more likely a 4/5, but there is still value in that when you have him signed for 3 more relatively cheap years and 3 team options.

ReyL - January 23, 2012 reply

nice look

wow, good look. I forgot how meh edlose was with us, but it's definitely encouraging for WD40.

If you think he will magically develop a good second pitch.....

mr. maniac - January 24, 2012 reply

holy shit man I get that you're down on him but stop being so extreme. it's not absurd for pitchers to develop another pitch or improve at age 25/26 and you were just shown evidence of this.

you’re just posturing at this point.

benderbrodriguez - January 24, 2012 reply

Chill out.

I’m just saying that we can’t expect him to follow Jackson’s developmental path unless he develops another pitch.

mr. maniac - January 24, 2012 reply

i dont think that's true. i think he needs to be able to throw the ones he has more consistently.

rglass44 - January 24, 2012 reply

Fair enough.

mr. maniac - January 24, 2012 reply

The issue with Wade is that he's taken several steps back

I've been saying it.

Derek Norris for Wade Davis makes so much sense. Nats could use another starter to make the playoffs and they have Ramos in the majors. And Norris is awesome. He is a walk machine. Literally.

Norris is no longer a Nat.

I seriosuly missed that.

They got Peacock, Cole, and Norris!?!?

and Milone.

Carter and Norris from oak maybe?

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

"too terrible"

Davis for Hundley in some package with the Padres.

ooooooo I like Hundley.....he was having a good year til he got hurt.

Patrick Relano Kim - January 23, 2012 reply

I'd be thrilled.

Davis and Chirinos for Hundley

Hundley and Shields

Nicholas John Hundley (born September 8, 1983, in Corvallis, Oregon) is a Major League Baseball catcher for the San Diego Padres. He was called up to the majors for the first time on July 3, 2008. As a 12-year-old he played on the Santa Clarita Mudcats. Other Mudcats alumni are Ryan Braun and James Shields.

Didn’t know about this..

Patrick Relano Kim - January 23, 2012 reply

There are a lot of flags with hundley

7.1 BB% and 24 K% last year, which was actually worse than 2010. 2% increase in ld% and absurdly high .362 BABIP lead to the 34 point uptick in ba. I really dont see much to like.

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

Also

Ironically hit a lot better at petco, opsing over .900. He also hit for much more power at home.

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

Some serious uptick in power numbers over the last two seasons at home.... in a grave yard

And he seems to be a solid defensive catcher with an improving CS% rate.

I guess its encouraging that he hits so well im an extreme pitchers park

But the k/bb still worries me. Obviously the ba and obp was due to a flukey high babip.

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

Seems like a slighty better version of shoppach

Similar bb%, lower k% (33% for shop), similar iso, similar ld% (pre rays), and good defense. For some reason shops ld% fell off a cliff with the rays, probably because his z-contact dropped by almost 10%. So hundley is shoppach with better contact, about 15% difference.

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

Moore to the bullpen?

Well, that would be the same logic as Longoria to DH, wouldn’t it?

cocanat - January 23, 2012 reply

It's not meant to be a long-term solution

Start him off in the bullpen, hopefully either Niemann or Davis will acquire significant trade value by June, trade one of them.

you don't limit positional players' PT.

OT: Francisco Cordero's agent's name is Bean Stringfellow

cool

Ben Tumbling - January 23, 2012 reply

you would

Factor in Davis's uncertainty going forward versus Hundley not yet being able to play a fulll season and there is an equalization

Both make similar amounts this season with arbitration for Hundley(if he puts up solid numbers) possibly equaling Davis’s contract over the next two(2.8 and 4.8).The options add security and at a risk but one that can be not picked up. Hundley may have one year before Grandal is ready and Davis could be expendable this season. Rays get a potential full time improving catcher for three seasons and the Padres get a potential workhorse(200+ innings) for a rotation that could use some stability now and has their better prospects still a couple of seasons away.

I'd far prefer Moore in AAA than in the pen

But he needs to be in the MLB rotation from Day 1

Why would you prefer him in AAA, where he has no value to the team, than in the pen, where he has some value to the team?

Sell more tickets in Durham

#bottomline

Don't want to screw him up.

Keep his routine. But there is no reason for him to be out of the rotation.

I just don't see the value in having arguably our most talented starting pitcher in the pen

You must've missed all of 2009 where the talk was making Price a closer

Fun times

No I didn't miss 2009. I remember the problem with Price was command and high pitch counts

Moore doesn’t seem to have those problems.

It started before Price even started the year if I remember correctly

Are you talking about talk on this site? If you are then I misunderstood you

and yes i missed it. I am a newbie to this here site.

Not that it was suggested by the site

But by those who have access to phones & free time

It woulldn't make much sense to make your #1 pick a reliever

especially when he still has ace potential. Moore just has ace written all over him, I’d rather have him start opening day than start in the pen.

"was"

Been starter whole career, has a easy fluid motion that doesn't yell injury, we have three lefties including a power arm in McGee

starts in playoffs, excels, sign him to a long term deal, then shove him in the bullpen or to Durham……makes absolute sense

It would be a short term move, as I'm proposing. Although it isn't optimal for getting the most wins possible out of the 2012 squad, the cost in runs would be minimal (a fraction of a win).

In turn, we’d get an opportunity to build Niemann/Davis’s value (which wouldn’t happen if either were moved to the pen) and sell high on whichever one performs better.

that seems pretty ridiculous to play with a kids head a little

just to freaking build up a little value for two pitchers to trade for someone, while also messing with the overall makeup of a team…really stretching. They aren’t playing the damn game or season to build up value for some back end rotation pitchers, they are what they are as of now.

Best chance is for a ST injury or to wait for the inevitable Dayton Moore trade

I don't see the hurry to trade Davis/Niemann.

Teams will be willing to give up more as opening day approaches and they don’t have their rotation set. The Rays don’t have to make a move while a team that thinks it is one pitcher away will once there aren’t any options in the FA market (Oswalt, Jackson)

Thank you. I don't even know why we talk about this AGAIN. We have a surplus great, everyone knows we do

So when a team figures out what they need, if they need it, AF will make the proper move. So let’s end the speculation. Moore is starting, can only start, and will start. Period. Dumb to even think that.

January is Friedmans month

Big trades rarely happen during ST and I cant recall Friedman ever making a notable ST move.

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

doesn't preclude anything. remember, we rarely hear anything about AF's trades until the day of. keep everyone in the dark.

Maybe not dumb, just kind of over thinking.

I understand the logic but its definitely not the best course of action. When you have a guy you think is an ace you want to make every decision with that in mind. The Rays made it very clear their intentions by starting him in game 1 of the ALDS and then locking him up long term.

Reply fail

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

Betemit just signed with orioles

Somewhere collette is crying

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

Betemit to sign with O's

Don’t feel so bad, Jason.

Ha, ha Beat me by a few seconds Boss.

Ha win

BossmanJunior333 - January 23, 2012 via mobile reply

Betamit to the O's

Poor Collette

Betemit to the Orioles

How do you think Collete feels right about now?

no no no

First, you don’t take an ace-grade starting pitching prospect and move him to the pen, change his routine for a year, etc. More harm than good. That’s what you do with your worst starter who has less upside.

You also don’t take one of the guys who gives you the best chance to win and reduce his workload. It’s like using Longoria as a 7th inning sub every day.

themiddle54 - January 23, 2012 via iPhone app reply

Can someone count the number of times the word "no" has been used in this thread?

It has to be a DRB record

benderbrodriguez - January 24, 2012 reply

Not as many as I thought

20 times

BossmanJunior333 - January 24, 2012 via mobile reply

Sheesh this piece certainly wasn't popular

As long as it doesn’t go the way of Cobb/Fleming I’m okay with that though

i think it's an interesting idea to keep his pitches down.

Low pitches and starting are not mutually exclusive

Skip his starts around the All-Star break. Give him an extra day here and there. Keep him to 185 IP or so. Putting him in the bullpen changes his entire routine. It’s something you do with a guy who’s little more than back-of-the-rotation filler, not a potential perennial CYA candidate.

themiddle54 - January 24, 2012 reply

betameat to the O's. sorry cason.

rglass44 - January 24, 2012 reply

Watch it--I already broke the news

sc_monsta1015 - January 24, 2012 reply

4th place

Manganese Medal

BossmanJunior333 - January 24, 2012 via mobile reply

I wouldn't wear that shit, turn your shirt purple.

I cried myself to sleep last night

Jason Collette - January 24, 2012 reply

Betemit signed with the Orioles

Jason Collette buffalo buffalo buffalo?