DRaysBay

You're on thin ice, bucko.

firemangreg - January 20, 2012 reply

Park factors cant be ignored, but...

Pena’s power last yr wasn’t just in Wrigley. 16 of the 28 bombs were on road and his .258 road ISO was 7th highest in majors. Trop is what it is, but he’s hit here before.

The LHP is a legit concern. Although, he can get on base a little v. them, but there are better alternatives. If the Baseball Ops guys can find a way to beat the shift, we’re in big business.

Tommy Rancel - January 20, 2012 via mobile reply

vs rhp hes still awesome

Best bat vs rhp rays could find. Find a backup inf who can hit lhp or slide Scott to 1b vs lhp and expand weary to best bat vs lhp.

stupid autocorrect

~~weary~~search

agreed

He killed righties last year, posting a wRC+ of 140. If we platoon him a little bit more than he’s use to vs lefties with Scott then we’re set.

mrTr0ut - January 20, 2012 reply

This.

bunt, bunt, bunt

against lefties that is. also, become less pull conscious*

*easier said than done

betemit would still be a nice reserve inf

reply fail

iphone giving you trouble today?

d.russ - January 20, 2012 reply

more like PH, i don't want his glove on.

But what if Pena, Longo and Scott are all hurt at the same time?

What if there's a Zombie Apocalypse?

joaker5 - January 20, 2012 reply

What if Manny is busted for roids and Dan Johnson sucks balls?

Borbes - January 21, 2012 reply

I really like the lineup

And it may actually still get better. AF will trade a SP….eventually. It could be for prospects or it could be for another guy to help the 2012 team.

I want any prospects we can get for Wade.

Agreed.

Wade Davis is such a weak spot in our rotation. Trade Upton and Davis for a well-established pitcher and a prosepct.

Bucs-RaysChick - January 20, 2012 reply

...and Upton.

Maybe you could make a fanpost elaborating on which pitchers and prospects we should target?

I wonder if Hafner is available?

Since the Jays are so high on d'Arnaud, would you maybe want a Davis/Arencibia trade? little out there, but fits both needs.

A within the division trade is unlikely unfortunately

What I was thinking too. For some reason the Jays have a problem with Arencibia.

while he is a average catcher and strikes out, we seem to like the K men, but my god the pop at catcher would be amazing.

I think that's very interesting

Is JP any good with the glove?

And do we really need TWO JP’s on the team. That might get confusing if they are both on the field. I mean, what would differentiate a wild pitch from a passed ball in that situation?

Pena defense average?

As stated “…and his defense was around average at first base.” After watching many 1st baseman kick the ball around last year around the league, Pena just doesn’t come across as average.

RayJzone - January 20, 2012 reply

LHP is already a concern with the team, but the difference is

that now, unlike last year, the game can be changed with one swing of the bat. Maddon will figure out something against good LHP, but Penas charisma and attitude are why I love him. Clubhouse became that much better, especially when you fill it with players who WANT to be there.

...and Upton.

this was a great one.

the best one

You should have seen how excited I was sitting in my office typing it.

Ha!

lol

Do I get the assist...

This zinger brought to you by rickdr23.

curtsy

Steve Slowinski - January 20, 2012 reply

No one takes into account that Kotchman had eye surgery before the 2011 season.

All these projection systems will probably be way off because they only look at numbers. I think he’ll have a very similar year to 2011

TLane - January 20, 2012 reply

When Kotchman hit the ball in play last season, it fell for a hit 33% of the time.

League average is around 29-30%. There are hitters that can consistently make more balls in play go for hits, but those players normally fall into one of two categories: they’re really fast, or they’re among the best hitters in the majors.

Good on Kotch for his season, but I don’t think he fits in either of those categories.

As the linked Normandin article notes

Kotchman had an abnormally-high % of groundballs become hits — “seeing-eye” grounders. Which may or may not be related to the surgery.

maris61 - January 20, 2012 reply

May not be

Infield hits are by design for speedsters when they attempt to bunt or chop it into the ground. When a plodder gets 21 infield hits, it is mostly a result of weak contact.

OH GAWWD. I assumed that was a joke.

I lul'd at it.

Vin - January 20, 2012 reply

It's gotta be

Maris,

MagicMark - January 20, 2012 reply

I find it hard to believe that he had a bacterial infection for that long

Antibiotics are expensive in today's healthcare system

He was unemployed for a bit so maybe he couldn’t afford them.

I just find it hard to believe that the eyesight only affected him offensively

This so hard

Sveet - January 20, 2012 reply

I have personally always been against looking at numbers to evaluate and predict the future performance of a baseball player.

Who bats in front and behind him?

Space Johnson - January 20, 2012 reply

Jennings and Longo.

Bucs-RaysChick - January 20, 2012 reply

I see it more like Longo in batting in front of him. Zobrist behind him.

Space Johnson - January 20, 2012 reply

Going to say the unspoken

and call it now… I think this may be the year.

Bucs-RaysChick - January 20, 2012 reply

We're winning this one?

Mmm-hmm.

Bucs-RaysChick - January 20, 2012 reply

But we have lazy Upton on the team!

great flag here

Not cool.

don't you wish you could see it

on my way home a bit tipsy at 8.15

and this has made my night. welcome back los.

OneTonneBaby - January 20, 2012 via Android app reply

Woah woah woah woah woah....

Big Dog (Steve Duemig) just used WAR, wOBA, and BABIP. That was the most insightful thing I have ever heard from him. What happened?

:) happened

It changes people

He reads this site, quite often

But then seems to still spout off about how terrible someone is because of his batting average

Hopefully he will continue his transformation into an enlightened fan and share this knowledge with the masses that worship him. I will predict that this will be the year Duemig uses his new found appreciation of SABRmetrics to be at the forefront of Rays fans becoming some of the most intelligent baseball fans in the league.

ReyL - January 20, 2012 reply

Or he'll just use whichever one will prompt people to call and argue with him.

It's almost like he's more interested in ratings than baseball

Pena vs LHPs?

He will provide protection for Longoria vs RHPs, but sit him down against the majority of the LHPs,then bring him him late in the game for defense.

MarkFidrych - January 20, 2012 reply

We spent $7.25 million on him though

Chances are we will let him hit against at least half of LHP unless he is just abysmally awful against them. He’s still probably a higher-impact bat against lefties than a lot of reserves we have as of now.

tampagator - January 20, 2012 reply

Lineup vs RHPs?

1) Jennings
2) Upton….speed at the top 2 positions.
3) Longoria
4) Pena
5) Scott (DH)
6) Zobrist
7) Joyce
8) Molina and ?
9) Brignac/ Rodriguez

MarkFidrych - January 20, 2012 reply

Zobrist does split lefties either way, I guess I just really love his bat at 5

I'd rather switch Scott and Zobrist.

But man, the lineup against lefties is NOT imposing at all

It may prove to be a major weakness unless Guyer and Canzler prove their mettle

XrayYankeeZulu - January 20, 2012 reply

looks pretty good to me

Jennings / Upton / Longo / Zobrist / S-Rod / Scott / Guyer / Joyce / Molina

that’s pretty imposing vs. lefties, particularly when you look at how awesome S-Rod is vs. lefties (.273/.389/.475)

Nice

Carlos Pena is 1 of just 4 #MLB players with at least 150 home runs & 450 walks since 2007: Pujols, Fielder & Dunn.

yeah the walks are huge. Thats always been my side argument for his .220 hitting.

I still can't believe how bad Dunn was last year.

So does this take us out of the running for Fielder?

Shoot.

Snarfalicious - January 20, 2012 reply

Heh, it does make me wonder

If Foster finally agreed to let the Rays get a new stadium where they want it if the FO would start discussing Fielder types.

Probably still a no.

Frankly I hope not.

lol

Turns out the Indians did need a SP

But they went with Kevin Slowely instead of Davis/Niemann

Morse gets extended by the Nats

Okay, what are the Sox about to do?

They already traded Lowrie and now Scutaro is close to going to Colorado. What SS did they just trade for?

What would they have to send to get Hanley back?

Oh god

Didn’t even think of him.

Just know bad news is coming.

Hanley in Boston would be perfect

Another headcase to bring them down

Dome Biscuit - January 20, 2012 reply

uh

that would be awful

wtf are the rockies doing

they have Tulo they don’t need to give up anything of value for an older player unless they think he’ll be injured again…I still don’t get it. Obviously Scoot goes to 2nd but ugh, still.

Rockies aren't exactly the brightest group

you're lucky rj anderson is not alive

It's nice to have free reign-wooooo!

R.I.P. RJ

he's a pretty good player.

Sox need to clear payroll if they want to add

At least so they say

Oswalt

But no way the Boston Red Sox let Punto be the starting SS.

Edwin Jackson is still a FA too

stunning

Boras isn't having his best offseason.

Texas probably would've been better off getting Jackson instead of Darvish

And save 70M

I hope they give the job to Iglesias.

lol

Josh Beckett

mrTr0ut - January 20, 2012 reply

^ignore

mrTr0ut - January 20, 2012 reply

Oh, don't worry.

Oh yeah, we need to waive some one else

Ruggiano this time?

Albert Joe

I have said the rays needed to ad some power so I can't be too upset with the Pena move

But I think the Rays very high strike out numbers has been the main reason for their offensive inconsistencies the last few years. While I know a KO is just an out, when you combine all the high numbers through out the middle of this order now, it is going to continue to be a problem. Yes, a bunch of HR’s might make up for the KO’s but over the long haul, I can see this team going through stretches of having difficulty scoring.

With the loss of Damon(14%KO rate), Kotchman(10%) and Shoppach((31%) and replaced by Scott(23%), Pena(27%) and Molina(23%) the Rays have increased their KO rate by 18%(55% to 73) with those three players. Against lefties, it is even worse. Damon(12%), Kotchman(14%) and Shoppach(26%) are replaced by Scott(30%), Pena(31%) and Molina(26%). That’s a jump of 35%(from 52% to 87%).

At this point it seems paramount to add a RH bat who can spell Pena at first for 30 games at 1st base and against tough lefties as well as repalace Scott who may struggle as the DH in similar fashion. He could also be an important bat off the bench as a PH’er or match-up guy late in games.

I still think the Rays could add that bat through a trade. I could see Kyle Blanks being available but I would be going against my call for less KO’s. Maybe Davis to the Padres for Jesus Guzman and Austin Hodges(catcher). Or Neimann to the A’s for Chris Carter and Max Stassi(catcher). How nice would it have been to pick up Nick Evans when he was available and may be he could still be with a deal with the Pirates.

pretty sure none of that is how %s work.

what? you can't average a series of averages

or sum them up? What’s wrong with 132%?

How did no one comment on that for over an hour?

LOL

I noticed this comment earlier when I was scrolling down, but I didn’t really read it.

(TL;DR)

That’s pretty funny though.

because no one reads budman's walls of inane text.

Some who are narcisstic trolls do.

budman3 - January 21, 2012 reply

no personal attacks

pudieron89 - January 21, 2012 reply

.

Fox knows THE math

Always giving 110%. Ignoring any rounding error, of course.

Or 120%

Sheet

cold medicine and bourbon are wonderful…

weighted averages

you have to take into account the volume of counts that generated each average. so, either you go back to the raw numbers, add them all up and then get your percentages, or you multiple each % by the sample size, add them all up and divide by the # of samples.

that keeps you from averaging somebody who had 0 K in 10 AB (0%) with someone who had 100K in 200AB (50%) and getting 25%.

joaker5 - January 21, 2012 reply

It was meant to point out that there is a likely to be a significant increase in strikeouts from the three major players the Rays have acquired over their replacements from 2011.

Especially when facing left handers. A main lament of most who are critical of this offense is the high strike outs along with the inability to put the ball in play, especially in run scoring situations. I cannot see how adding so many KO’s to a line-up that already includes guys above 20% in career KO rate.. Upton, Joyce, Jennings and Rodriquez(with Zobrist at 17% and Longoria at a career 19.8%) is a good thing.

Again, I understand that a strike out is an out(and sometimes not a double play) but you are looking at potentially the entire regular line-up(from top to bottom) striking out 20% of the time. Take out S-Rod and Molina(who may not get 500 AB’s) and seven of the nine could potentially strike out over 100 times…each! How can such a line-up be consistently productive? That’s my question.

Well, you did a terrible job.

I'll ask again? How do you reconcile so many potential strike outs in a line-up improving the offense?

Add up all the percents you can find.

No answer, huh?

How did he do a terrible job

What is your counter argument?

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/tampa-bay-rays-strikeouts-not-actually-that-big-a-deal/1161067

The premise from this article is that with a league average or above in OBP and agressive base running, KO's don't matter that much

It worked in 2010 but last year the Rays were below league average in OBP, were still aggressive on the bases(although thrown out 8% more on SB’s), yet still were 3rd in the AL in KO’s. They had a superior pitching staff last year but only won 91 games(compared to 96 in 2010). In fact, the Rays offense was below league average in most offensive categories compared to 2010. And that includes scoring almost 100 runs less.

I am suggesting that with the likelihood of even more KO’s and maybe a decline OBP, there should be cause for concern, IMO.

Kotchman(.378 OBP) was higher than Pena(.357) and Damon(.326) was higher than Scott(.301)

Our 1B combined for .351 OBP last year.

So I would expect something similar this year now we have Pena just with much greater power potential.

Rays 1B only hit 11HRs last year

Only team worse was A’s @ 7

I think the overall numbers from last year offensively have to be looked at very carefully.

The first half of the season the platoon of Fuld/Ruggiano becoming Jennings in the second half was fairly significant. For the first half of the season we had many nights were the 7-9 were just awful.

Point taken.

But we are still making projections for next season based on numbers from the past. Jennings may indeed put up better total numbers than his counterparts over the course of a full season. But likewise, Pena’s three year regressions (prior to a slightly better 2011 Cub season) cannot be overlooked just as Scott is still a major question mark coming off of surgery.

And while Pena’s power should help the offense, the Rays have got to replace 42 HR’s from last season(the total of Damon, Kotchman, Shoppach and Jaso). It’s probable Pena and Scott will but it’s not a slam dunk(considering Pena’s lower HR numbers and Scott’s health).

Those hit 42 HR in 1736 PA.

I expect Scott + Pena would hit at least 40 with the potential for many more. Even with that any HRs from the catching position would be a gain.

I don’t think the HRs are a concern as they’ll at least have as much power as last year on the low end. The big potential gains in OBP is where the potential for run creation really lies imo. If Scott is healthy, it is a risk, but I’m sure we have a backup plan.

Math.

SandalsNoPants - January 21, 2012 reply

That was fast

Scutaro rumor is dead

I read this as

“Scutaro is dead”

OH NO!!!

Speaking of Rockies

Wouldn’t they want a player like Wade Davis?

Dome Biscuit - January 20, 2012 reply

They have quietly gotten a lot of arms ever since that Jiminez trade

They keep picking them up. I remember they liked Neimann and Davis but we weren’t really a match.

I like Davis a lot

I don’t want to trade him just to trade him. Especially for a below-average catcher at best.

Dome Biscuit - January 20, 2012 reply

Wait what?

What catcher?

If you mean Rosario, I like him a lot. Problem is he doesn’t help us with the situation of Molina being our only catcher. Lobaton has proven nothing and Chirinos, I like the bat but his release is way too slow.

The Rockies have wayyyyyyyy more quantity than quality arms though.

Always loved Carlos.

So excited he’s coming back!

Does this feel sarcastic to anyone else?

TBTimes_Rays Marc Topkin
St. Pete native Kotchman on his time w/ #Rays: “I had fun playing with my AWESOME teammates at home in front of my friends and family!”

He puts awesome in caps and that’s what all the current Rays are calling Pena “awesome”

no

Nope.

I wish him the best wherever he ends up.

Who knows, maybe next year he's back in talk with the Rays about coming back.

Could happen

I don’t know where he’s going to end up though. Indians wanted Pena because they want power, Yankees don’t need a good defensive 1B when they are looking for a DH. Maybe the Cubs? I don’t know.

Balitmore needs a 1B still I believe

They want Reynolds there this year.

I thought I read comments that he's the projected 3B

yup

I think the idea is that Chris Davis is going to suck at 3B, too, so, meh.

Actually, it sort of makes sense: Reynolds was never cover-your-eyes terrible at 3B until last year. Why not see if he can improve back to merely awful, particularly on a team that’s probably going to lose 100 games anyway?

i could care less

benderbrodriguez - January 21, 2012 reply

Good for you.

Here’s a cookie.

mint420 - January 21, 2012 reply

how much less?

nomoredevil - January 21, 2012 reply

lol

joey'd

pudieron89 - January 21, 2012 reply

Hey, maybe when CC is 37 and a FA, he will want to sign back here for a year

A 37 year old Crawford would be pretty useless.

LOL

Let’s see how his wrist is after his surgery. He might be pretty useless far earlier than 37.

He was pretty useless at 29.

But oh man at 28...

I'm way late on this but this is freaking great!

as long as SI doesn’t pick us to win the World Series then i think it could be “the year”

Peter Piontek - January 20, 2012 reply

1-7 in the lineup is looking pretty damn good.

If we can get a breakout year from either Briggy or S Rod this WILL be the year.

JoeMasGlasses - January 20, 2012 reply

Won't need much of a breakout imo.

Something around league average and this lineup would be quite scary.

I think Sean will have a great year

Brignac, well, it wont be hard to be but he will improve. I think he becomes an above average SS because he will have an average bat and a great glove.

That's pretty much what I was getting out.

The standard for a breakout is fairly low right here and if it happens the lineup looks very tough.

*getting at

benderbrodriguez - January 21, 2012 reply

League average would be a breakout

he was close to LA in 2010

benderbrodriguez - January 22, 2012 reply

When he had the platoon/batted ball advantage like 90% of the time

i didnt realize we werent going to platoon him this year.

rglass44 - January 23, 2012 reply

Why?

Heyman reports Rays and Giants are “in” on Renteria. What do they see in Renteria, Theroit and Keppinger? None have good bats but at least Rhymes can play D

Maybe trying to move Briggy.

and need a stopgap between now and Bex/Lee.

Peter Piontek - January 20, 2012 reply

Hope not

They will probably carry 2 SS/2B’s who are all glove/no bat and I prefer Brignac’s potential to improve and his D isn’t just good, it’s highlight stuff, nightly.

I think it depends on the return.

Because in a year or 2 briggy won’t have a spot on this team because Lee is as good or better with the glove right now.

Peter Piontek - January 20, 2012 reply

I could see it.

If they believe in SRod handling the position defensively for the next year or 2.

Thinking maybe Briggy and Niems to the Pirates for a package of

Marte , Sanchez and maybe Dickerson

Peter Piontek - January 21, 2012 reply

He still hits lefties pretty well

And it would allow the Rays to play Renteria and Rodriguez and move Zobrist to RF. Not sure if that is optimal roster construction, however.

Barnacles - January 20, 2012 reply

I think what it really means is the end of Sam Fuld more than anything else.

With our roster heavy in lefties especially ones that are weak against lefties, I could see him getting moved for a little something since Guyer would fit into the roster better as the 4OF.

I really like Fuld as a 4th OF but just feel this might be the end of him and I’m sure other teams could use him.

I'm not sure there will ever be an end to Sam Fuld

No one has become a fan favorite faster than Sam.

I just don't see a spot for him with a lefty heavy lineup.

I agree he is fun to watch, but I just don’t think he fits.

excellent point. we know this FO always makes decisions based on who is fan favorites.

It makes a ton of sense.

Career 127 OPS+ versus lefties. 109 OPS+ last year. If he can play 1B and take Briggy’s spot, he can platoon with Pena.

This makes 100% sense.

mr. maniac - January 21, 2012 reply

Hasn't his bat been dead for like 3 years?

It woke up in the 2010 WS but otherwise, he’s had some rough seasons.

Yeah Renteria would just be replacing Helliot then

Which I don’t think anyone would really complain about. Plus, he only made 2 million last year and if the Rays can get him for half of that then I think it’s a pretty solid move.

Barnacles - January 21, 2012 reply

Although I was more thinking he would play ss/2b and Zobrist/Rodriguez probably slides to first

Renteria literally has 1 inning of play at 1b so it may make more sense to use Zobrist, Rodriguez or even Scott.

Barnacles - January 21, 2012 reply

Ya that makes most sense.

But really if it doesn’t matter as long as the moving parts fit.

As a Cubs fan who claims the Rays as my "AL team"

I was very happy to see the Rays get Peña again. Really enjoyed having him as a Cub for a year, even if it was a miserable year. Nothing but positives to say about him.

Miserable for the Cubs or for Pena?

I’m really asking. I haven’t bothered to look at the numbers much, just happy Rays went out and got Los back on the team.

I am pretty sure he means the Cubs' season

They had a very Devil Rays type of season and fans like him were probably trying hard to focus on positives. I think Carlos was part of the “positives” for him as he watched a less than desirable season move along.

Tonage - January 21, 2012 reply

Bingo

Sorry, should have been more clear

I meant miserable for the Cubs. Although it’s brutal watching him K so often, his (much needed) D and occasional long balls were fun.

Patrick Relano Kim - January 21, 2012 reply

Believe it or not, Pena may hit even better

The deepest center field in Tropicana is 404 ft and his homers on center field are all father than 400 ft. Pena’s right sided homers are grouped at above 400 ft while Tropicana’s right side is just 370 ft. His left sided homers are located between 360 and 400 ft as Trop’s left side pole is just 317 ft. It looks like that Pena still has legit power and his homers last season would be homers in Trop as well.

Hell, looks like he might have had at least a few more bombers easily if he was playing in Tropicana. Look at those hits near the end of RF zone. Those 4 would be homers in Trop easily. Also Toronto, New York, and Baltimore all using home parks heavily favors left handed hitters and most of pitchers in AL East are all right handed except top of the rotation arms. Don’t forget about Kuroda and Pineda, who are both right handed fly ball pitchers throwing fastball/slider combo. I expect huge production from 1B if we platoon Pena with Canzler(AAA vs. LHP: OPS .920) and/or Guyer(AAA vs. LHP: OPS .974)

Looks like he was successful adapting new approach he tried since 2010.
Thanks to great post by vvycls00..

part of theprob comparing these is the winds in Wrigley.

Patrick Relano Kim - January 21, 2012 reply

I live in Chicago

I know well about the wind but look at Pena’s homers last year. Most of them are 400 ft or farther which means most homers he hit are probably homers in every other parks no matter where he plays. Out of 30 homers Pena hit last year, just two of those are considered as “just enough” going over the fence according to home run tracker. Actually Pena hit even better on road that he hit in Wrigley. (wRC+ 127 vs wRC+ 111)

true. im just saying that his moonshots would be helped by a tailwind more than most.

Not to mention sometimes those winds are blowing in

In the beginning of the season I believe the winds were howling in for the most part, and there were days it was near impossible to hit one out that he, as a result, got jobbed on a few homers.

put the AC on blast

Staats: “It’s a beautiful 69 degrees in the Trop tonight…wait, what?”

pudieron89 - January 21, 2012 reply

Nice to have that man back on our side

We all know he K’s a lot but he’s got that power that makes the guy on deck make the shocked face when he connects. Always fun.

Pena coming back to the AL East should bring pause.

budman3 - January 21, 2012 reply

This signing made me happy on two levels

It filled my desire to see more power this year, while maintaining a strong defense.
The emotional level is almost as satisfying; Carlos is sooooo easy to root for.
During his 2007 season I became a hardcore fan of this team;
Living in New York at the time, his 2007 performance made it easier to deal with coworkers.
For me, he is a legend.

Tonage - January 21, 2012 reply

Morning dose of Heaterade.

This is going to be a very trying season. A virtual TON of K’s, many looking. Likely more lazy, sloppy play from Upton in CF where Jennings should be. More of Zo’ substandard play at 2B where he doesn’t belong. Joyce half-adequate in RF where Zo belongs. Jennings wasted in LF where Joyce belongs.

Friedman is a big sabermetrics guy. If that type of thinking says that “outs are too precious to give away” then it would logically follow that Casey with his .300 BA would be a better fit than Pena with his .199 BA. Personally, I’m not a fan of sabermetrics and I’m not a big fan of 160+ K’s, either. Good luck Casey.

Good post. Tough to drive in and move up K’s. And who behind Kotch was going to do the same? Johnson, Brignac, Shoppach? None hit over .200. Using sabermetrics is one thing, really understanding what the numbers mean is another story. The addition of Pena, keeping Derek Shelton, and continuing the Maddon hitting approach virtually locks in leading the major leagues in K’s. Watch and weep. But still, go Rays!

Hatfield - January 21, 2012 reply

gawd. hilarious these dummies think they know better than the best FO in baseball.