After the Yankees acquired Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda, I nearly tweeted out something along the following lines: "Congratulations, Yankees, you now have the second-best rotation in the AL East." Upon further review, though, I decided to hold off. While I really wanted to claim that the Rays still have the best rotation in the East, I didn't want to make the mistake of underrating Pineda or Kuroda in the heat of the moment.
So to go about answering the title of this post, I decided to enlist the help of preseason projections. The ZIPS projections still haven't been released for every team, so I took the average of the three projections available on FanGraphs: the Bill James, Roto Champs, and the Fan projections. Two of these projections tend to be optimistic like woh, but by using the same standard of comparison across both teams, theoretically that should balance out.
So if you view these numbers as a general estimate, the Rays and Yankees have a similar talent level in both their rotations, although the Yankees have a slight advantage in Innings Pitched due to Jeff Niemann's injury history and Matt Moore's youth. There are a number of caveats to these projections, though.
If nothing else, the Rays edge out the Yankees in upside. While both rotations project around the same, it's not exactly a stretch to think that at least one of Price, Hellickson, or Moore could break out this year. Meanwhile, the Yankees could get big years from Pineda or Nova -- and maybe a bounce-back from Burnett? -- but I still think there are more questions about them than about the Rays' young trio.
Anyone else out there already excited for the first Pineda-Moore matchup? The season can't come soon enough...
0 recs | 96 comments
Still the Rays.
A few disagreements:
Nova’s FIP lower than Hellickson’s? I think Hellickson’s will drop down quite a bit with a major improvement that is likely to happen with his K and BB rates.
Eh, I would list more out, but those projections seem very optimistic toward the Yankees.
SandalsNoPants - January 16, 2012
They're projections...I'm just presenting them as is.
I tend to agree with you that the Yanks projections are optimistic, although when I looked into each pitcher a bit closer, it’s tough to disagree too much with the Yanks projections. It’s tough to say how Kuroda and Pineda transition to the AL East, but outside of that, the projections are rather fair for each player.
I’ll be interested to see what ZIPS has to say once all that comes out.
Steve Slowinski - January 16, 2012
I think my biggest problem with these is:
If you look at their projected peripherals, it’s saying that CC-Pineida-Nova is a better 1-2-3 than Shields-Price-Hellickson.
Does anyone here actually believe that?
mint420 - January 16, 2012
I would rank them this way....
1. CC
2. Price
3. Shields
4. Pineda
5. Hellickson
6. Nova
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
I know he wasn't being discussed in the previous post
but I’d put Moore and Kuroda above Nova, also.
SandalsNoPants - January 16, 2012
I would put Moore in the mix just behind Price/Shields
td32 - January 16, 2012
Pretty much this. Moore is going to blow the league away.
He’s a left handed Strasburg without the benefit of the hype machine.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
This is exactly what Buster Olney said in his New Year's Day rankings
raysfaninminnesota - January 16, 2012
No radio show today?
Sveet - January 16, 2012
For sure.
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
I have quite a few qualms with these projections as well.
I agree that this seems really optimistic toward the Yanks.
mint420 - January 16, 2012
The issue I have is that these projections seem to cancel out year's of Hellickson's domination and assume he will post mediocre peripherals.
I doubt any great than 5% of us think that will happen.
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
I have looked pretty in depth and have concluded that the Ray's have a slight edge in the rotation but are weaker in the bullpen.
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
And just to add on some more, it shows the significant issues with systems like this that are purely statistical.
It doesn’t put things in perspective. It doesn’t equate for a player just having a bad, off year. After Price’s first year, he was significantly underrated by projections in a similar way that Hellickson is getting underrated.
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
I think the rotation's listed are pretty even but overall but it's unlikely that everyone stays healthy and effective.
The Rays have more depth (Wade Davis wasn’t even mentioned) since neither Hughes nor Betances have shown any ability to be effective as starters.
Barnacles - January 16, 2012
Did we trade Davis while I was napping?
I understand listing Niems as the five over Wade, but at this point he should still at least be listed when you’re talking about depth, don’t you think?
nomoredevil - January 16, 2012
I guess.
I nearly put him and Niemann as interchangeable parts in the #5 hole. It still seems likely to me that one of them gets dealt before the season, but I guess ya never know.
Steve Slowinski - January 16, 2012
Rays and it's easy
Look..
Sabathia = ace
Pineda = really talented young arm that now has to pitch in the AL East and the guy found a way to have a HR problem in Seattle….. At least, in the 2nd half he did.
Kuroda = Kidding me? It explains itself, coming from the NL West to the AL East. I don’t expect much from him
Nova = If Ivan Nova was a Ray, those 16 wins would of been 10, he got incredibly overrated because of his winning streak. People forgot to look at how insane his run support was
As for their fight for #5, keep Burnett and Garcia away from my team and Hughes only dominated as a SU man IMO.
Shields = He is not a 2010 Shields type and he’s not a 2011 Shields type, he’s all those other years where this is very solid starting pitcher who doesn’t fall under pressure.
Price = The potential was shown in 2010 to people who just look at stats, like they did with Nova but in 2011, lots of wins were lost by the pen, his walks were down, his K’s were up and before a bat came flying at him, he has finally found a great change up. If he could just get that slider back…
Hellickson = Walks seem high but that’s actually pretty impressive because with his stuff, you would think you need to be perfect on every pitch to do well. He wasn’t perfect quite often and he did very well.
Moore = He’s the shiny new toy syndrome but the guy has a chance to be our best SP in his rookie year.
Neimann = Tale of 2 pitchers. If he’s healthy, he might be the best on the staff, if he is injured again, it’s pretty brutal to watch
The forgotten guys
Wade Davis = Inconsistent and really messes with your patience but another above average SP who does fine under pressure and he’s the guy fighting for #5 or a bullpen spot if there isn’t a trade.
Alex Cobb = Almost any other team has this guy in the rotation breaking camp. He is so much like Hellickson, he might be even better, yeah I went there because Cobb’s split change can’t be hit. Helly may outsmart you but he doesn’t have that uninhabitable pitch.
And for the record, I would probably take Archer and Torres over there 2 B’s but all 4 walk too many people.
joeybw - January 16, 2012
We are talking in terms of talent, not it terms of ballparks.
Switch gear from ERA to FIP.
And it really isn’t easy. The Yanks have some depth, although not as good as ours.
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
Dear joeybw,
We will of no more have these confusing words you throw our way.
From, The Monster
sc_monsta1015 - January 16, 2012
When will everyone learn I don't care about all the complaints sent my way?
joeybw - January 16, 2012
Keep it up!
preachiTBrotha!
SRQman - January 16, 2012
Joseph, just stop it now
firemangreg - January 16, 2012
I'm still with the Rays here.
If an injury occurs who will take the ball for NYY? Rays have Davis, Cobb, and Torres in place of Niemann or whoever may get injured. I also don’t see Nova having a better FIP than Hellickson.
jcmitchell - January 16, 2012
Yankees have plenty of depth: Freddy Garcia, Betances, Banuelos, Hughes
Ben Tumbling - January 16, 2012
Yes but Betances and Banuelos are just Alex Cobb type guys until either of them start finding the plate.
I don’t buy into Yankee prospect helium.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
* Alex Torres
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
I don't know about long term but as of today, Cobb is a mile ahead of those 2
They need command. They are closer to Torres. Now their ceiling, I’m sure is higher than Cobb but it’s pretty rare that a Yankee prospect actually reaches his full potential.
joeybw - January 16, 2012
Yeah i was thinking Torres but typed Cobb.
one of those days.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
I'll take the Rays rotation all day long.
I have no belief that Nova is anything more than a #4 or #5 type guy going forward and personally don’t think Pineda will be very good in the band box in the Bronx. CC is going to be CC. Kuroda actually gets to play against teams that hit the ball and the other guys are just that.
Hellickson will almost certainly perform better in 2012 then he did in 2011 , Price can match up with absolutely anyone when he is on. Matt Moore could quickly become our number 1 because he is just that good. I personally think Shields continues to build on his 2011 and has another great year but even if he reverts back to his 2008-09 form . he is a nice innings eater.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
I would rank 2012 projection as
1. CC
2. Price
3. Moore
4. Shields
5. Hellickson
6. Pineda
7. Nova
8. Kuroda
9. Niemann
10. Burnett
Patrick Relano Kim - January 16, 2012
Price is going to use that new found awesome change up all year
If he can just find command of that slider, he’s the best SP in the league.
1. Sabathia
2. Price…. just like in 2010, him and Sabathia will be just about equal
3. Moore
4. Shields
5. Pineda
6. Hellickson
7. Nova
8. Neimann or Davis would both fit here
9. Kuroda
10. Burnett
I think going from the NL West to the minor league AL East team is going to give Kuroda a terrible year. I simply think Burnett will be worse any way.
joeybw - January 16, 2012
Nova over Kuroda?
Hellickson over Pineda? Moore over Shields?
Nothing wrong with any of that, but I would bet against it.
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
Seth Smith to Oakland
SandalsNoPants - January 16, 2012
Does Beane realize he has like 15 1B/OF/DH players now?
Transplanted - January 16, 2012
Probably a precursor to another move.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
Maybe, his roster construction has been very odd
Transplanted - January 16, 2012
He's let Moneyball go to his head.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
Got his muthafuckinmovie check.
Vin - January 16, 2012
I have no idea what that rotation is going to be at this point.
I know that McCarthy is the ace and Bartolo Colon is their #2….
joeybw - January 16, 2012
Neimann/Davis for?......they have a lot of 1st/DH's to offer the Rays.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
Barton and Fuentes
sc_monsta1015 - January 16, 2012
You remember well, grasshopper!
I would settle for Barton(or Allen) and maybe add a prospect or two.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
Add Carter to that mix too.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
Let me rephrase that...and add a prospect, or maybe two.
Before I get the trade value evaluators all hot and bothered again.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
Milone will be in the rotation come opening day for sure.
I also think they may get Parker and Peacock in the mix very quickly. Might as well learn in the Majors if the team has no shot at winning.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
A's are already a bottom 5 team I think
With the Mets, Astros, Orioles, Pirates
Transplanted - January 16, 2012
Yeah they pretty much look like a 55-58 win team
and if they are leaving Oakland then their sights are firmly set on fielding a good team in the inaugural year.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
They may be on the fast track but their rotation will need some experienced innings eaters.
Outside of McCarthy(25 starts and 180 IP) and Anderson(13 starts, 83 IP) GS, they have no other starters they can count on to pitch extensive innings next season. Even if they have talented prospects that may be ready(and most of them are not) they are going to have to bring in some veteran type arms before ST, to make sure they don’t blow out arms, IMO. Clearly they are looking ahead to their future.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
They already have the moving truck packed for Sacramento.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
With the addition of Smith their payroll will probably come in around 37 million.
They will likely take on a few million dollars to add some veteran arm depth which Bean could trade away at the deadline if he needs to.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
Defense doesn't matter - Billy Beane
Sveet - January 16, 2012
lol
benderbrodriguez - January 16, 2012
I still think the Rays have the better rotation
but if the Yanks stay healthy this closes the gap considerably and makes them the best team on paper. Before the trade I thought the Rays staff was good enough to balance out the lineup and pen advantages the Yankees have.
JoeMasGlasses - January 16, 2012
What lineup advantages?
The Yanks have a lineup advantage?
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
Come on. Don't be a homer, dude.
They have a better offense.
SandalsNoPants - January 16, 2012
Tut tut.
I’ll have a fanpost on this. They do not have a better “lineup.” Park adjustments and stuff; its the new thing.
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
This.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
Can't wait to read this
Sveet - January 16, 2012
Pretty sure it starts with the fact that while on the road last year we outscored the almighty Yankees by 1 run.
I’m sure it’s a deeper look into that.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
Well just a quick analysis
C – NYY
1B – NYY by a lot
2B- close
SS – NYY by a lot
3B – close
LF – close
CF- NYY
RF – close
DH – ?
Sveet - January 16, 2012
Rays are definitely better at 3B & LF
Transplanted - January 16, 2012
LF yes
but if Arod can stay healthy, the difference at 3b is pretty slight.
SandalsNoPants - January 16, 2012
That's a big "IF" at this point.
I don’t think he’ll ever be the player he was when he was juicing and honestly i don’t believe he stopped until it started being tested for.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
He was pretty awesome even until 2007
And near elite into 2009
Transplanted - January 16, 2012
When did league wide testing begin , with punishments?
it was 2008 wasn’t it?
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
2005
Transplanted - January 16, 2012
Or 2006
One of those years
Transplanted - January 16, 2012
Jesus, where do the years go?
seems like yesterday
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
It's close, which is what I said
Sveet - January 16, 2012
wRC+?
pudieron89 - January 16, 2012
Ok so lets just say
C- close
1B – NYY by a lot
2B – close
SS – NYY by a lot
3B – TB
LF-TB
CF-NYY
RF-close
DH-?
The Yankees still have a better lineup.
Sveet - January 16, 2012
oh i knew that, just saying wOBA not park adjusted, wRC is, and that matters a lot when you do it by the #s
pudieron89 - January 16, 2012
and I wouldn't say SS is NYY "by a lot", unless you expect Jeter to put up more than about a 110 wRC+, which is about what I expect. Hopefull we can get in the 90-95 range.
pudieron89 - January 16, 2012
LF maybe.
Even if you give the Rays that one we still don’t have a better lineup.
Gardner isn’t a slouch and Jennings will be playing in his first full year.
Sveet - January 16, 2012
Gardner is good, but Jennings has power
I think that gives him an edge @ the plate.
Transplanted - January 16, 2012
I'm interested to see it also.
I just don’t think the gap is as wide as people think. Longoria is most certainly better than Rodriguez at this point in their careers and Jennings is almost certainly better than Gardner. Luke Scott should give us the edge at DH unless the Yankees sign Pena and then Scott could still be better. I just don’t think the aging Yankee lineup will automatically produce. Our lineup is less experienced and Joyce or Upton or S Rodriguez could all break out at any time.
Peter Piontek - January 16, 2012
Just wait for the potential explosion from Longoria this year
last year’s BA was BABIP driven and is in line for a massive regression. If Rays have a better offense and more runners on base, Longoria is in line for a huge year…if this is the year he doesn’t have any nagging injuries. Either way, I’m jumping on the Longoria MVP bandwagon now.
raysfaninminnesota - January 16, 2012
Okay so maybe the Rays lineup is just as good as the Yanks
I understand the ballparks influencing the numbers, but the reality is the Yankees are going to play half of their games at YS and the Rays half their games at the Trop. So even if that is the reason they scored 160 more runs last year, they still have that advantage this year so it isn’t that unreasonable to believe they will score quite a few more runs than TB this year, unless the Rays make another big move OR a few Rays players have breakout years.
JoeMasGlasses - January 16, 2012
But that works both ways.
Our pitchers will allow less runs than their FIP due to the Trop and the Yankees pitchers will allow more runs than they otherwise would due to Yankee Stadium.
I think it will be close. Their offense will probably be better but not by a lot of runs next year.
jtmorgan - January 16, 2012
I think that the general consensus is that the Yanks have at least narrowed the advantage gap between the starting staffs
And maybe they have an edge in the bullpen. But the difference on the offensive side still favors the Yanks(with a DH for the Yanks and 1st baseman to be added still), IMO. That difference is what may separate the two when all is said and done. While these are all projections, and there is no accounting to how “full seasons” or health factor in, the Yanks have probably improved themselves more, to this point, than maybe the Rays have.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
I feel like I'm always talking about how good the Yankees are recently.
Pineda is really good. Kuroda is pretty good, too. The AL East isn’t about to crush them. Let’s not let our heads get too big.
I don’t think anyone here is buying Nova because of the wins, but he is a decent young pitcher. Doesn’t strike enough out, but gets ground balls and throws strikes. Overrated by many, but a decent enough back of the rotation. I’d rather have Helly, by a long shot.
I think the Rays rotation is still better, but it is closer. The Yankees, if they stay healthy, might be a 100 win team. The Red Sox, with a little bit of luck could be there too. And so could the Rays. There’s nothing magical about the division that makes it impossible for good players from elsewhere to come in and have success. It’s just that there’s a lot of good players concentrated on three teams.
Whelk - January 16, 2012
Yup, I agree.
JoeMasGlasses - January 16, 2012
My list
CC
Price
Shields
Moore
Pineda
Kuroda
Hellickson
Nova
Niemann/Davis
Burnett
Whelk - January 16, 2012
Mine is about the same--Basically slides Kuroda behind Nova.
sc_monsta1015 - January 16, 2012
Hellickson will be a better pitcher than Pineda in 2012.
pudieron89 - January 16, 2012
It's a toss up
One aspect that’s not talked about yet with Pineda is that he’ll now have Russell Martin as catcher. Martin is among the highest rated in the recent pitch framing studies. Molina is tops of course, but he’s not catching 120 games — unless he was brought in specifically as Helly’s personal catcher.
Ben Tumbling - January 16, 2012
That's a lot of games for Helly to pitch!
budman3 - January 16, 2012
The 1.5 man rotation is the new 6 man rotation.
Whelk - January 16, 2012
hopefully Lobes or whoever will improve with Molina in the clubhouse.
pudieron89 - January 16, 2012
Pineda will get owned
by Red Sox, due to his lack of change up and Sox’s heavy lefty lineups. I know, I know, it is such a tiny sample but he had 14.58 ERA vs. Red Sox and 7.11 vs. Blue Jays and he’s going to use hitter’s heaven for home park. He has potential to be much better pitcher but I just don’t think 2012 is the year. Somewhat down year, say, 3.80-4.40 ERA with 160~180 innings for 2012.
Patrick Relano Kim - January 16, 2012
In a vacuum the staffs look very similar.
Due to home stadiums the Rays will score fewer runs and allow fewer runs and the Yankees will allow more runs but score more runs. The difference of 160 runs scored will be lower than last year, assuming a solid 1B pickup.
But with a defense that will save 30-40 additional runs and a pitching staff that will be a little bit better, with the potential to be much better if Moore does what he is capable of, the run differential won’t be that far off imo.
jtmorgan - January 16, 2012
I agree, maybe I should have said the Yankees have a more productive lineup.
JoeMasGlasses - January 16, 2012
Question: what the heck is this: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&players=0
How the heck did some teams have more games than others?
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
Ahh.
Here is the link: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&players=0
mr. maniac - January 16, 2012
Counts each players total games played I'm assuming.
So it would change by how many bench/bullpen guys they used.
SRQman - January 16, 2012
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