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The Rays Tank: The Pineda-Montero Aftermath

SEATTLE, WA - AUGUST 27:  Michael Pineda #36 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch during a game against the Chicago White Sox at Safeco Field on August 27, 2011 in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

Stephen Brashear - Getty Images

9 months ago: SEATTLE, WA - AUGUST 27: Michael Pineda #36 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch during a game against the Chicago White Sox at Safeco Field on August 27, 2011 in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)

So the Yankees are actually alive. After lying low all offseason, they swooped in and fixed their rotation problems in one night, trading for Jesus Montero for Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda. We've already covered the Montero-Pineda deal in detail here -- check out Mr. Neg's quick reaction and Whelk's Pitch F/x breakdown on Pineda -- but trades this radical don't happen very often, and its aftermath will surely affect how the rest of the offseason plays out. Already we're beginning to see a couple different things play out:

Pressurepressurepressure on the Red Sox. Both the Yankees and Red Sox entered the winter with some large holes in their rotation, and the Yankees have now filled those holes while also making their rotation stronger in the long-term. Meanwhile, the Sox have done nothing besides decide to move Daniel Bard into the rotation. Many writers are already anointing the Yankees as the favorites in the AL East, and with the Rays looking very strong (and without a guarantee that the second Wild Card will be in play this year), the fire just got turned up under the Red Sox. How will their new front office hold up?

Competition for remaining FA hitters. Now that the Yankees have traded away Jesus Montero, they have an open hole at DH. As Carson Cistulli notes, the Yankees have a number of options on how to fill the position -- including filling it internally by rotating players around -- but they are unlikely to spend much money to add a new player. As such, they could possibly end up competing with the Rays for one of the remaining free agent hitters out there. They have already been linked to Carlos Pen and Johnny Damon, so this could make for an odd, backwards bidding war.

If Pena signs with the Yankees, I might just lose it. Pena was always one of my favorite players, and him going to the Yankees now would hurt even more because there's a somewhat-plausible chance that he could end up back with the Rays. He's ours, Yankees...back off!

  • Stephen Nohlgren had a piece in this Sunday's Tampa Bay Times about how both Bill Foster and Stuart Sternberg can take a step forward in their meeting tomorrow instead of merely remaining at a standstill. He proposes that Stu offers to bring spring training back to Al Lang Field, which is a good idea but may not be that feasible due to the Rays' recent investment in their spring training facility in Port Charlotte. But the idea is still sound: Stu needs to give Foster something in return for the right to negotiate with Tampa. The question is...what?
  • Preliminary CAIRO projections for the 2012 season are already out. I'm waiting for ZiPs to be finished -- in my mind, they're the best system available now that CHONE is no longer public -- but CAIRO can certainly hold its own.
  • Over at Baseball Nation, Wendy Thurm wrote about how the MLB Fan Cave isn't very welcoming to women. I completely agree, and her takedown of the Fan Cave is worth reading in full.

    Although I'll add on caveat. In Thurm's words: "The 2011 version of the Fan Cave offered nothing for the score-keeping, numbers-crunching, roster-watching woman fan." Personally, I can't say that the Fan Cave offered much for the score-keeping, numbers-crunching, roster-watching male fan either. It was goofy and inane, and much more geared toward casual fans.

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Comments

It would appear that Pineda and Kuroda will be replacing Colon and Burnett in the rotation

Those two combined for 19 W and 354.1 IP last year and the Yankees won 97 games.

How many more games do you feel the addition of Pineda and Kuroda will add to that win total?

I suggest the Rays have done a better off season in filling holes (Moore, Molina Jennings, Pena?) Scott) from last year’s opening day line up to close the six game gap between the teams, than the NYY’s have done to widen it

It'd be more telling to look at the performances, not the Ws. I think the Yanks absolutely have a better rotation this year than last.
I totally agree that the rotation is now much better.

The offense is aging still though. Jeter and Rodriguez will continue to trend downward and the teams defense is pretty sorry. Our pitching depth will win out this year and as it sits , i see us winning the Beast in 2012.

while i agree, the point i was making is 'can they improve on their win total'?
Yes, I'd say those pitchers could outwin the other two by up to 10 wins.

Will it have an effect on the overall record, I do not know. It’s hard to imagine Nova getting all those wins again.

Also must consider the aging curve on some of their guys

A regression for Granderson
If we are to believe that they only have $2M to spend on a DH, that will be a downgrade from what Montero would have provided.

Can't count the downgrade from Montero.

He barely played last season. His added value is unknown.

But I was just referring to the rotation, anyway, which is what Sternfan1 asked about.

You absolutely can count Montero being gone a downgrade.
How's that? Like Sandals said, he barely played last year.

Yes, it is a downgrade from the team, but we are talking about the Yanks improving their record from last year.

And Montero wouldn't outproduce what Posada did?
I understood your point I just don't think you can analyze it by looking at pitching wins.
Yankees better safeguarded

against regression and injury than improved in win total.

I would be very surprised if they won more than 97 games in 2012.

I’d rather go through a 162 game season with Pineda/Kuroda making 65 starts than hoping Hughes/Burnett can get me through.

Also Sabathia can't start every playoff game.

without a deeper rotation the Yankees could win all the regular season games they want, but would never make it through the playoffs. I don’t see Nova repeating last year either.

Regression of hitting to offset Pineda/Kuroda

Agree with Jeter/Rodriquez backing up in production. Yanks run of CC eating innings without any injury can’t continue as weight issues will take toll. Pineda/Kuroda are insurance at keeping the bar high at 97 and places more importance on the Rays to upgrade power at 1B vs the safe signing of Kotch.

THIS

Colon and Burnett represent rotational volitility. The odds of Colon repeating are not all that good. Burnett is on the way down more than he is on the way up. Pineda and Kuroda give the Yanks a better chance of repeating those numbers that Colon/Burnett put up than Colon/Burnett do.

As for the "meeting" of the two power players tomorrow

Stu needs to let Foster come out of this as a hero, the guy who ‘saved MLB in Tampa Bay’

While we all know it’s a bunch of crap, stroke the dude’s ego for that’s what politicians really only care about

Hoping to have a piece up on this later today

that I’ll be working on during my flight up to the northeast. Some interesting recent developments, including this

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/tourism/lightning-approached-about-channelside-but-no-deal-struck/1210563

There are so many questions that thing leaves unanswered

It’s a rumor to be ignored until things change.

But why does Bill Foster feel like the guy in a chicken suit on Let’s Make a Deal and you’re telling him to take the cash, but you know he’ll go for Door #3 that contains a goat.

Foster will not be able to solve this

He does not have the contacts that the good old boys had when they brought in the Drays. George is dead and the kids are now in charge. The yankees were a key player for baseball in our area, thanks to George. The way to go is a trade off for the yankee not Rays spring training.

There is a 0% chance the Yankees will move their Spring Training to St Pete.
Dear MR. Hatfield

No team is allowed a spring training site within an MLB approved distance from a home team. Rays in Tampa, say goodbye to yankees

Damn, Sucks for all those teams that train in phoenix.

Someone better tell them they have to move

Go tell that to the Cardinals

They had to move for the Rays. It’s a rule that MLB has , do some research before you besmearch Sveet

You can't be this dumb
Angels facility is less than 5 miles from Chase Field

Maybe the distance is 2 miles.

Besides, any one who moved from their current Grapefruit League spot to Al Lang would be taking a major step backwards in facilities.

I believe the rule he was referring to actually applies to minor league affiliates...

I believe that most of those teams were grandfathered in due to expansion. It probably wouldn’t be a factor since the Yankees are talking about moving their FSL team to Orlando.

If anything Foster will be a hinderance

He has already given one of his buddies playing rights at AL Lang in the name of international baseball and stupid soccer. Foster is a tool ,plain and simple.

No sure what International baseball and stupid soccer have to do with any of this
It is political Mr. Sveet

Foster’s buddy is running the show for this at AL Lang. Foster will not gig his political buddy.

ST isn't returning to the area, nor should it

Foster is losing his chips and the walls are closing in on him, and a smart guy should be able to see that and move from it still standing. Will he?

The area has plenty of ST teams
MLB will give ST.Pete

spring training to get out of a lease, any day of the week. The state of Fla will help in financing to compete with Arizona.

The answer to your last question is no
I absolutely agree with this

and the only way the Rays can do that is by offering money. I believe it was Romano who argued the Rays should pay a “fee” just to be able to consider all options. And if the Rays decide to move to Tampa, then a different fee will need to be figured out for breaking the lease.

Money cures many woes.

Something called the MLB Fan Cave was goofy and geared towards casual baseball fans...is this really surprising?
This is a free read over at BP I think you all will enjoy about the closer role

Has some Farnsworth & Dan Johnson involved

link fail

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15845

interesting thing I learned: we had J-Up on our team against the sox in April?

good read overall though, thanks for linking.

I know a lot of women who would say they are baseball fans.
Ten years ago, according to this Gallup Poll, 37 percent of women self-identified as baseball fans, compared to 49 percent for men. But the trends were moving in opposite directions, with women’s baseball fandom increasing while men’s fandom was decreasing. In the last few years, many media outlets have reported that women now comprise 45-47 percent of all baseball fans, making it the most gender-balanced of the four main professional sports.

They rarely if ever watch a game on tv. They go to games when a group of people goes and while they could probably name most/several players on the team I can assure you that their list of daily websites to visit doesn’t include any baseball or sports websites.

Fandom comes in all different forms and women fan’s general level of interest is a pretty casual one.(Not to say there aren’t hardcore female fans because there are).

The question shouldn’t be are you a baseball fan. The questions should be How many games do you attend a year? How many games do you watch on tv or listen to on the radio a year? How many times a week do you visit a baseball/team oriented website?

The question should be how many of you are fans because you think Jeter, Arod, or Ellsbury is hot?

Then subtract 50% of the female fans.

Follow that question up to the remaining 50% with how many of you are fans only because your boyfriend/husband likes baseball?

Take away another 50% of the remaining group.

What?

Women can be educated and interested fans, yet still be attracted to certain players…they are, you know, women. To hold them to male standards of fandom seems unfair. Similarly, almost everyone gets introduced to a sport through someone, whether that’s at an early age or later. I don’t see how it matters who does it.

I guess you seem to feel that most female fans are shallow, skin deep fans. I dunno….I guess it’s possible, but I’m hesitant to draw such sweeping conclusions. Especially when I know of a number of female writers/fans that disprove that.

I would bet that the average female fan doesn't know what a double play is

let alone the infield fly rule.

Wow. You are ridiculous.
You may be out of touch with the average female baseball fan.

Being involved with baseball as you are, interacting with women who are actually involved in the game. I am being very realistic about this.

Woof

Look at some of the female followers we have on Twitter – they know the game. Hell, my mom knows more about baseball than my football-loving father does. My brothers and I get her the MLB Extra Innings programming every year for her birthday

The point isn't that women aren't capable of understanding the game. THat would be sexist

And of course some women are very into baseball and follow the game to the extreme like we do. Doesn’t mean thats the avg female who attends a game.

The article was also poorly written...

and uses horribly unscientific metrics to back up her claim about women baseball fans and the supposed sexism of the MLB Fan Cave. Her writing about sexism took its own sexist turn.

D

Didn’t read the article

shocking...a woman calling a guy pad sexist

Hasn’t this been happening since men and women actually lived in caves?

My wife begs to disagree with you.

She is far from a “hardcore” fan, but when we watch games on TV or go to the Trop she has an excellent idea of what is going on and one might even say an advanced understanding.

I can’t speak for all women obviously, but saying the “average female fan doesn’t know what a double play is” is a statement that I just can’t agree with. Not in my experience anyways.

I just don't see how it's absurd to say that less female are knowledgable and/or care about a game that, at the moment, is played by 100% male athletes (although I think it will be interesting as we perhaps see that change in the next decade)

Sandals was perhaps being hyperbolic but it’s neither sexist nor offensive to see his point. I’m all for female equality but I don’t think I’d be offended as a man if a woman said men are less knowledgeable and don’t understand as much about field hockey.

I wouldn't be offended if someone said men are less knowledgeable about cleaning dishes or making sandwiches
now that's directly playing into a stereotype, you sex-baiter.
See I would be.

As a stay-at-home Dad I clean dishes and make sandwiches all day. I also am the primary caregiver to my children. Gender roles are not as clearly defined as they used to be. Many men now do a lot more of the things that are traditionally thought of as being “women’s jobs”.

that's why i was referring to sports with defined male/female ratios rather than tasks with variable levels of ability
I can agree with the general point that there are fewer hardcore female fans, and that (on average) female fans are less knowledgeable.

Sandals was taking it quite to the extreme….maybe that was meant as hyperbole, but it came across as serious, which is taking it quite far.

But even if there aren’t as many hardcore female fans, it shouldn’t be a radical thing to expect an MLB sanctioned P.R./social media concept to give some attention to female fans. I think it might be a bit much to expect the MLB Fan Cave to pander to educated women fans — considering it didn’t even pander to educated male fans — but it is true that knowledgeable female fans are generally ignored or overlooked almost everywhere. I can understand getting fed up with being ignored/overlooked all the time.

i think that she went about it wrong, though. if you want to stop being overlooked, you'd do better to get more women interested/involved in a positive way than by complaining in a negative way. but that's just my opinion.
a woman who nags?

Color me shocked.

Anything you would like to add about black fans while you are at it?
"Fandom comes in all different forms and women fan’s general level of interest is a pretty casual one.(Not to say there aren’t hardcore female fans because there are)."

Couldn’t you also say the same thing about guys? There are plenty of make casual fans of baseball…probably more than we realize or assume since we’re very isolated from that community here.

The question isn’t whether there are female baseball fans…there are, and there are plenty of them that follow their team as closely as any of us do. You could argue that there’s a higher percentage of male fans that follow their team closely, which is certainly possible…that seems likely. But I wouldn’t trivialize women fans, because there are plenty of them out there.

I would argue there is a much higher percentage of male fans that I would consider more than just a "casual fan"

I would probably say 10 to 1 and I could be way low in that estimate.

Also I’m not sure how I trivialized women fans?

You didn't trivialize them, sorry.

It just seems the general trend this was going…female fans aren’t as hardcore, don’t exist, yadda yadda.

I'm not saying that.

I’m saying they do exist. Just in fewer numbers than male fans

Good point. It has nothing to with gender.

Casual fans come in all shapes and sizes. It has nothing to do with gender, cultural background, sexual orientation, or anything else. There are hardcore baseball fans and there aren’t.

Reason for (cautious) optimism from Jon Heyman...

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS Close
#yankees are telling people they only have $1-2M for dh spot. So no pena. And damon doesn’t seem likely at that price, either

and you believe they can't afford Damon?
they can't afford to have his level of "production" if they want to be a playoff team.
the chase for 3000!!
Last time ('09) Damon played in that stadium he hit 24 HR

you’re saying Johnny wouldn’t tweak his swing for that right field wall and do much the same again?

i was saying the Rays, of course LH bloopers are successful in NYS. Didn't Brignac hit 3HR there in 2010?
If they are truly aiming to lower their payroll

Then maybe the silent brother is putting his foot down on this one.

these are not your father's Yankees

The Steinbrenner duo doesn’t operate the team the way their old man did. They don’t see a point in outspending every other team by 50 million.

Guess they shouldn't have signed Garcia.
Yeah, I can see Damon going there to DH.

The O’s might offer a bit more though.

The Yanks need either a cheap DH or a great infielder

Because whoever starts the year at DH needs to be 1) expendable or 2) able to take A-Rods place at third

A-Rod could find himself pulled from the infield before year’s end.

a return of Betemit?

which will sadden Collette…

My final post on this story.

If you post a link to an article that may be somewhat loaded, you should be more prepared to discuss the article and its implications rather than hide comments you do not care to see (or that you would not care for prospective employers to see).

Have a good day.

And I’d love it if you didn’t remove this post like my other realistic posts. Thank you.

I just wished you would stop being sexist, so that my daughter (who reads the site) doesn't have her dreams dashed of being a "real baseball fan" like her male relatives.
That's enough, Hatefield

Go blow off some steam, get an eyepatch, and drink your Haterade while your at it.

You know what happens when you blow off some steam.

(Could recite that entire commercial by memory after yesterday)

saw your post in the Dinner with David post

I’ll be at the event as well.

Yessss. Meat up.

You’ll even get to meet Mrs Hatfield.

is your TrueBull attending too?
And the horses.
David Price and the horses will all be in attendance, yes.
Like I said, email me if you have a problem.

I’m happy to explain.

It doesn't seem out of line to have a discussion about sexism when her whole article was about sexism
So, do you think any of our younger players get signed long-term this offseason?

I’m hoping for Hellickson and Joyce after signing Pena.

Hellickson—I’m thinking a Shields/Davis type contract, but with more money. Maybe something like 4 years/$14M with 3 club options that can make it 7 years/$44M

Joyce—4 years/$13M with 2 club options that can make it 6 years/$31M

I think the big thing is getting Hellickson signed, because I don’t think we will have Shields/Price and Davis/Niemann heading into next season.

2013 rotation? Shields/Price, Moore, Hellickson, Davis/Niemann, Cobb.

I read that Yankees low budget thing

Sadly, they cried poor before they signed Kurado also. Well, I hope it’s true that they cant afford Los, then we just have to outbid Cleveland and hey he loves Tampa!

Oh god, bad thought, Yankees are probably trying to find some sap to trade for AJ and then they can sign Pena.

A's acquire Seth Smith Rockies for Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman

There goes another guy projected to be in the rotation and some depth in Outman.

This makes the rotation McCarthy as the ace, Colon, Parker and I don’t even know who the other 2 will be. Braden wont be quite ready yet and Anderson wont be ready until after the All Star break.

Is it considered a good and productive off season if we ink Betemit and Pena?

Or do we also need to trade a SP for some near future help?

Sign Pena, trade for Matt Adams (or similar), and re-sign any 2 of Hellickson, Jennings, and Joyce.

We do have a catching problem, but I think we wait until the deadline to worry about that.

I fully expect Pena to be signed, Joyce to be extended and an Adams type to be traded for

but the other part is the problem. Helly and Jennings are both Boras clients.

Arent pena and betimit redundant

Both mash rhp but struggle against the opposite hand

If cashmam is smart, he’ll sign betemit and platoon him with jones

Reds signed Navarro to back up Meso

Let’s go get Hanigan.

He was signed to a minor-league deal, I don't see the Reds wanting to trade Hanigan right now.
depends on what the rays offer

A backup catcher is valuable, but not untradable. Navi could catch 40 games while mesoraco catches 120. He would be a perfect fit for the rays. Hanigan + ________ for Davis?

A sternfan question from twitter.

I want to ask it on here. He asked who will avoid arbitration first for the Rays and I guessed JP Howell.

What does everyone else think? I also have a feeling Rays and Price will try to work out a long term deal, not be able to agree and he will find his way to a hearing but beware David, AF has never lost.

I agree with you about Price.

And I think Price will be the only guy heading to arb for us. The rest hopefully get signed somehow, but I don’t expect any more than 1-year deals.

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