Otto Greule Jr - Getty Images
The Yankees, who had sat silent through this offseason, suddenly became movers and shakers completing a pair of deals Friday night. They have reportedly traded catcher/DH Jesus Montero and right handed pitcher Hector Noesi to the Seattle Mariners for right handed pitchers Michael Pineda & RHP Jose Campos. The Yankees also finalized a one-year ten million dollar deal with right handed pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. Here's a look at the players moving to new teams today:
Yankees Acquire/Sign::
RHP Micheal Pineda (turns 23 on January 18th) - 2011 with Seattle made 28 starts, 171 IP, 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA/3.42 FIP, 9.11 K/9, & 2.89 BB/9. He was Baseball America's #16 rated prospect entering 2011 and is under team control for five more seasons.
RHP Jose Campos - 19 years old (turns 20 on July 27) - 2011 with the low A Everett AquaSox made 14 starts, 81.1 IP, 5-5 with a 2.32 ERA/2.38 FIP, 9.41 K/9, & 1.44 BB/9.
Hiroki Kuroda - 36 years old (turns 37 February 10) - 2011 with the Dodgers made 32 starts, 202 IP, 13-16 with a 3.07 ERA/3.78 FIP, 7.17 K/9, & 2.18 BB/9.t.
Mariners Acquire:
Catcher/DH Jesus Montero - 22 years old (turns 23 on November 28) - 2011 with Scranton Wilkes-Barre he posted a slash line of .288/.348/.467 with 18 HR and a wOBA of .356. In 18 games (69 PA) with the Yankees in 2011 he posted a slash line of .328/.406/.590 with 4 HR and a wOBA of .356. He was Baseball America's #3 rated prospect entering 2011 and is under team control for six seasons.
RHP Hector Noesi - 24 years old (turns 25 on January 26) - 2011 with New York he appeared in 30 games (2 starts), 56.1 IP, 2-2 with a 4.47 ERA/4.09 FIP, 7.19 K/9, 3.51 BB/9.
With the trade the Yankees now have filled their rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Micheal Pineda, Freddy Garcia, and Ivan Nova. They have also cleared a spot at DH and their may be interest in Carlos Pena (the Yankees did claim him from the Cubs last August).
Initial Reaction to the Hiroki Kuroda signing at Pinstripe Alley.
Initial Reaction to the Jesus Montero trade at Pinstripe Alley.
Initial reaction to the Micheal Pineda trade at Lookout Landing.
Jon Heyman reports Carlos Pena is on Yankees radar.
ESPN Stats & Info takes a closer look at Pineda, Kuroda, and Montero
Dave Cameron at Fangraphs scribes: Yankees Land Pineda, Don't Pay Retail
We've been waiting all winter for either the Red Sox or Yankees to make their move--you know, the one that anoints one of them to be the prohibitive favorite to win not only the AL East but the Word Championship as well. Baseball is a game of superstition and maybe just maybe the fact that the deals were pulled off on Friday the 13th won't bode well for either New York or Seattle?
0 recs | 179 comments
I have no idea
why Seattle did this. Why would you trade Pineda for a DH?
djp68 - January 14, 2012
And Campos too.
Wow. Unless Pineda is totally flawed long term due to no changeup, I think NYY absolutely owned this trade.
djp68 - January 14, 2012
Ask the Mariner FO
Didn’t you hear that Montero was really Edgar Martinez Jr.?
bumbry - January 14, 2012
I think it was a good trade for both teams
Which means bad news for us. All of a sudden the yanks have a formidable rotation to go with their potent offense. It’s gotta make them the favorites despite what pundits have been saying about our team.
pudieron89 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
I think the ballyhoo for Pineda is way overblown
The wheels really came off for him after the 4th of July
sternfan1 - January 14, 2012
Wheels didn't fall off - he just got a bad set of them
April-June:
8.7 K/9
2.8 BB/9
0.7 HR/9
6% HR/FB
77% LOB
.260 BABIP
Jul-Sep
9.7 K/9
3.0/ BB/9
1.3 HR/9
14% HR/FB
58% LOB rate
.290 BABIP
Jason Collette - January 14, 2012
A RH fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium--we'll see
sternfan1 - January 14, 2012
Needs an alignment
The Home/Away split doesn’t bode well for Pineda either.
bumbry - January 14, 2012
One season of sample size does not a pitcher make
It’s all just folly right now
Jason Collette - January 14, 2012
your K/9 goes up when you face more batters per inning because they're reaching. why wouldn't you use K%?
pudieron89 - January 14, 2012
additionally, the claim that many throw around about him being a 2-trick pony that batters figured out could have some credence to it
and would give a compelling narrative to complement those numbers.
pudieron89 - January 14, 2012
ugh that's an ugly sentence.
pudieron89 - January 14, 2012
He's 22 and missed nearly a full season of development with issues
and was still in the big last year. This time last year, Pineda would have been behind on Moore and Jennings in our prospect rankings.
K% still holds up:
April – 24%
May – 29%
June – 22%
July – 29%
Aug – 24%
Sept – 23%
Jason Collette - January 14, 2012
i'm not saying anything about him going forward, just explaining his second half struggles to prevent runs
all i know is he’s a good pitcher with some obvious flaws, hopefully he pitches well against everyone except us.
pudieron89 - January 14, 2012
No, hopefully he doesn't.
I hope the Yankees lose most of his games with him getting knocked out early in every one of them. Just like I hope that with all Yankees pitchers.
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
For all of the park factor concerns related to him
his home data put into Yankee Stadium doesn’t do anything
Jason Collette - January 14, 2012
that's a false exercise.
being a flyball pitcher in NYS you know the LH bats will be constantly trying to pull their hits.
pudieron89 - January 14, 2012
given how cavernous Safeco is to LF & LC, wouldn't they be doing the same in Seattle?
Jason Collette - January 14, 2012
23 on the 18th--but why let that spoil an agenda
sternfan1 - January 15, 2012
zomg....he'll be 23 and already have a full season of MLB under his belt
The horror!
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
or you could just admit that you were wrong without trying to twist it again
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
How am I wrong? He's not 23 yet
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
Prospective employers might not like the unwillingness to bend on this one.
SandalsNoPants - January 15, 2012
If I were willing to bend on facts, I'd have a future with the government
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
lolol
benderbrodriguez - January 15, 2012
His rough stretch was right around the ASB
7/9 vs LAA: 5 IP , 6 H, 2 HR, 7 ER
7/19 vs TOR: 6.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 HR
7/24 vs BOS: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 1 HR
another stinker on 8/15 vs TOR: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 HR
after that, shut the Rays down over 6 (K’ing 10), annd rolled on from there.
Jason Collette - January 14, 2012
I posted this on the other thread.
“I think you are exaggerating.
On July 4, he pitched 6 innings giving up 2 hits & 1 run with 2 BBs and 7 Ks.
He then had 3 very poor games in a row, although he continued to strike people out without walking many.
He followed that slump up with 6.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 runs (1 earned), 4 BBs and 10 Ks and except for 1 more poor start his remaining 6 starts were all pretty good. In his next to last start he went 8 innings allowing 5 hits & 3 runs with 1 BB and 8 Ks. His last start was just 4 innings.
Overall, he had 12 starts beginning on July 4 and in 68 IP allowed 60 hits & 23 BBs and had 74 Ks. He did show signs of fatigue, generally going only 6 innings, and had a few poor outings, but otherwise remained an impressive pitcher. Not as good as his early season work, but not awful either.
by bobr on Jan 14, 2012 8:13 AM EST"
_______________________________________________________________________________
What is the point of hyperbole that misrepresents the truth of things? What does it demonstrate or add to the conversation?
He may indeed have problems in Yankee Stadium and the AL East. He may get injured. It is reasonable to say his pitching in the second half was not quite as excellent as in the first half, even that it indicated he was over-hyped. Of course there should be some recognition that many factors may account for the apparent decline in performance, but at least it would be an honest appraisal.
But to say he was awful (as you did on the other thread) or that the wheels came off is simply wrong. It would be legitimate to note the spike in home runs, the increased walk rate, the inability to go more than 6 or so innings in all but one start. Those are flags (how red I don’t know). But that does not warrant the assertions you make.
bobr - January 14, 2012
First of all if you're going to disect what i said get the facts right
I said AFTER the 4th of July, meaning not including. Also, it is my opinion he’s very much like a Ogando from TEX who needs a third pitch to succeed, especially in the ALE and especially in Yankee Stadium.
While many here kiss your ring, i’ll continue to post what i feel without fear or worry that someone doesn’t like or agree with it
sternfan1 - January 15, 2012
2 things
1 – re-read what he said
2 – reflect on what you just posted and think twice before doing that again
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
haha
SandalsNoPants - January 15, 2012
Jason, i think he's every bit sarcastic and condescending to me or more than i am to him
and it isn’t the first time he’s done this
I take exception to what should be considered as a ‘holier than thou’ type post
No harm or malice just my feelings
sternfan1 - January 15, 2012
I've met both of you....
He’s the same guy in person as he is on here. You – not so much :)
Take exception, but back it up objectively, not subjectively. These are discussions, not arguments.
Your Ogando comp had validity, but you’re also overlooking workload issues with both. Ogando more so as you could visually see him hit the proverbial wall last season while Pineda saw a workload spike of over 30 IP last season at an age when most of his peers are still throwing in A ball. I wish we had the minor league pitch counts for him, but we don’t. He absolutely needs to refine his change-up, but he’s at worst a #3 starter right now, could be a #2 this year, and has ace potential. That’s where he differs from Ogando because he’s nearly 7 years older and he almost is what he is.
Pineda is a flyball pitcher, but he doesn’t allow much good contact as the chart I used earlier shows. All of his home runs from Seattle would have gone out out Yankee Stadium as well but none of his other balls in play would. If these guys are going to get pull happy with him to try to jerk him out of the yard, then he works the outer half and pounds them on the inside with the slider.
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
Verlander in '05 (minors) 118 IP
’06 MLB 185 IP
Tigers (WS)
sternfan1 - January 15, 2012
Missed the part where Verlander missed an entire season due to shoulder issues before that
You’re also talking about this generation’s Nolan Ryan when it comes to workloads. Verlander is the extreme
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
Are you trying to knock Pineda by comparing him to Verlander's rookie season?
Or praise him and show us what you think Pineda will become? Comparing the two seasons and Pineda’s rookie campaign was as good, if not better than Verlander’s.
Verlander was 23 in 2006. He had a 6.00 K/9, 2.90 BB/9 and 1.02 HR/9. His FIP was 4.35, xFIP 4.42 and SIERA 4.65. He was worth 3.1 fWAR in 186 IP.
Pineda was 22 last year. He had a 9.11 K/9, 2.89 BB/9 and 0.95 HR/9. His FIP was 3.42, xFIP 3.53 and SIERA 3.36. He was worth 3.4 fWAR in 171 IP.
ReyL - January 15, 2012
And if you want to talk about hitting a wall, Verlander hardly tore up the league after July 4th in his rookie season.
Verlander, 13 starts, 75 IP, 55 SO, 27 BB, 10 HR, .822 OPS against.
Pineda, 11 starts, 63 IP, 67 SO, 21 BB, 10 HR, .713 OPS against.
ReyL - January 15, 2012
This is the kind of discussion I am talking about
Nicely done
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
how can you visually see someone hit something proverbial?
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
Envision my head hitting my desk reading this drek this morning
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
if only "read more post less" counted for anything around these parts...
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
Read more, warn less
My new mantra
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
Take July 4th out of it...
61.2 IP, 58 H, 21 BB, 67 K’s. Bob’s point still stands….
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
and it is my opinion backed up by my own set of facts--guess we'll find out by season's end who's right
sternfan1 - January 15, 2012
killed it
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
"Pineda gave up 18 HR last year pitching in Safeco and from July 4 on was awful"
This is what you wrote on the other thread. I interpret “from July 4” to include that date.
Please note that I am not arguing that Pineda will definitely be a success in NY. I am trying to demonstrate that you are exaggerating when using terms and phrases like “awful” or “the wheels came off”. In my view, that kind of language misrepresents the case. If Pineda’s performance was awful in the second half, then what descriptive would you use for Lackey’s season? “Super-awful”? “Mega-awful”.
Post what you like-or what you “feel”. But like you, I reserve the right to disagree, and try to provide data to explain why. I don’t consider it condescending to point out that the facts do not support your feelings in this case, and I am certainly open to re-thinking the question if you demonstrate that the facts I have presented are irrelevant or inaccurate or incomplete or need more context or whatever you like to make your case.
As for sarcasm, if it is in my post it is unintentional. On the contrary, I tried to be absolutely straightforward in saying I considered what you said wrong. I admit to being irritated by posts that exaggerate or over-simplify, which I think yours did. I think it is those sorts of posts that lead to flame wars and end with a lot of name-calling, and while such threads can be funny, after a bit they wear thin for me.
More to the point, if you project failure for Pineda based on a view that he was awful after July 4, I think there is a disconnect between your analysis and the facts, and again, I freely admit to be irritated by arguments based on a faulty statement of information.
We will not find out at the end of the season who is right, at least not if you are referring to my post, because I did not say that Pineda would succeed in NY. I simply said that he was not awful from or after July 4, so if your analysis is based on the claim that he was awful your argument has no merit. You may still end up “right” should he flop, but not because you could see it in his late season performance in 2011.
bobr - January 15, 2012
Did you read his post on this thread?
SandalsNoPants - January 15, 2012
Do you mean this one?
“I think the ballyhoo for Pineda is way overblown
The wheels really came off for him after the 4th of July"
______________________________________________________________________
Yes, I did. Is this about the “after July 4”? I recognized that change of wording. That is why I tried to make clear that I simply pasted my response from the previous thread; since the substance of the point was the same, I did not want to over-explain.
Am I missing something that should force me to reconsider what I posted?
bobr - January 15, 2012
No, you seem to have just glossed over it.
SandalsNoPants - January 15, 2012
Looks like Seattle needs a starter now
Who do we target for Wade or Niemann? I like Carp way more than Smoak at 1B. I guess getting Montero still won’t make Olivo any more available from the M’s.
bumbry - January 14, 2012
They don't need a starter.
they have 3 guys who are all close. Walker is a potential #1 and Hultzen and Paxson could be #2 or more
Peter Piontek - January 14, 2012
Anyone see Konerko in play with Yanks as a DH?
td32 - January 14, 2012
Nothing left to trade
Yankees are targeting Pena for that role.
bumbry - January 14, 2012
I don't see why Pena will want to DH when he can get a full-time 1B job here.
sc_monsta1015 - January 14, 2012
Thought:
if the Indians land Pena, could the Rays perhaps inquire about Santana? Would Santana be remotely available?
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
I really don't see them trading Santana.
But, if they do sign Pena, that surely makes LaPorta/Duncan available. Of course, I don’t know if I want either of them playing 1B for us.
sc_monsta1015 - January 14, 2012
No.
Mild interest in Duncan as AAA depth. No interest whatsoever in LaPorta. I doubt they trade Santana, either, but how’s their pitching? It’s pretty grim, no? Masterson’s okay. They have Jimenez, who is a question mark, and I don’t even know who’s there after them. I’m sure I’m forgetting at least one obvious name.
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
Masterson, Jimenez, Caemona, Tomlin and Lowe
sternfan1 - January 14, 2012
Yeah, that's bad.
Carmona was the obvious name I forgot. Tomlin craps. Lowe is washed up.
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
100% NO
sternfan1 - January 14, 2012
i don't see them trading him.
pudieron89 - January 14, 2012
It's very possible this is Pena's last chance at a multi-year contract.
I can see why he would take the cash/contract over playing time.
Vin - January 14, 2012
You don't need much to trade with Kenny Williams
Dome Biscuit - January 14, 2012
They have payroll relief to trade
Look at the drek they gave up to get Bobby Abreu in the day
Jason Collette - January 14, 2012
No--i'm guessing a LH bat to take advantage of that park
sternfan1 - January 14, 2012
That's how the story goes
A-Rod and Andruw will take breathers at DH when they sit Pena against tough lefties.
bumbry - January 14, 2012
As Maddon has said in years past holds true today, the Rays need to construct their team their own way
and while they’re aware of the Yankee moves, they can’t overreact to them
sternfan1 - January 14, 2012
Why would the Rays even react to the moves from last night?
It hardly affects them or their roster plans. The Red Sox, on the other hand, should be extremely concerned.
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
if rays add one more good bat, i still think we stack up well vs NYY
Nothing that happened yesterday makes me believe rays can’t win AL East.
raysfaninminnesota - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Sorry for all the questions guys, but in the spreadsheet WAR projections, do I use the wOBA I think they will hit or do I use the wOBA they would hit at a neutral park?
Thanks.
mr. maniac - January 14, 2012
You can use either since you'll do the same with the pitchers
Ben Tumbling - January 14, 2012
I can’t remember the last time two of the 30 or so best young players in baseball, both of whom have had great success in limited MLB playing time, were dealt for one another. It’s a lot of fun to think about and ask if Tampa Bay would trade Jennings + Hak-Ju for Trout or if the Nationals would deal Strasburg for Hosmer + Wil Myers but ultimately deals like this usually stop there—in a hypothetical Bill Simmons-ian land of what-if.
I like the deal for SEA a lot. They can’t score to save their lives and putting Jesus mid-lineup with Ackley over a full season should be a nice start. Their pitching in the org is both deep and very very loaded at the top with Hultzen and Taijuan Walker and overnight minor league success story James Paxton coming over the next few years.
I like the deal for NYY, but not quite as much. I guess I like it only insofar as they got one of the best young SP in baseball. I don’t like what they gave up for Pineda, or what the move means in terms of their roster construction. Pineda’s a stud, and his K rate is high enough to mitigate some of the damage attached to his FB tendencies. But. If we’ve learned one thing from GM behavior this off-season, it’s that young cost-controlled pitching is suddenly very readily available in the market. A lot has moved already, and there are names out there who could have moved but haven’t, a couple of them we’re very familiar with. But a true middle-of-the-order bat? A guy with the potential to hang a 900 OPS for the next 6-8 years, who is also cost controlled for at least the next 5, and who could be had in this market? Beyond Montero, I’m drawing a blank. The Yankees lineup is getting older. We’ve watched Posada wilt, A-Rod and Jeter decline and Teixeira the last two seasons, on and after his 30th birthday, has started to hit like a slugger who has, well, passed his 30th birthday. I think they’ll like Pineda, but possibly come to regret letting Montero go when injury and regression is costing them more runs scored than Pineda is preventing.
I still like the Rays in the AL East this year. I think the wins the Yankees bought with Pineda don’t even begin to catch up to the loss they suffer from age-related regression this year and having to DH Andruw Jones or someone similar instead of Montero.
themiddle54 - January 14, 2012
Granderson likely for regression too..
To add him to the list, while he still may provide a very good season, I see it as highly unlikely that he gives them 40HR and a 900+ OPS this season.
JWoz - January 14, 2012
seeing the phrase "jesus mid lineup"
Makes me think of Major League…“are you saying Jesus Christ can’t hit a curve ball?”.
raysfaninminnesota - January 14, 2012 via mobile
As soon as I saw this I thought about the Yankees rotating Tex and Fielder through 1B/DH.
On some level I fully expect it to happen.
Vin - January 14, 2012
Yup. First thing I thought of too.
That’s really going to suck.
fsucb - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Fielder was probably everyones first thought for DH
The Cubs want him now. Aren’t they the guys who traded for a 1B I kinda liked?
joeybw - January 14, 2012
their, their, Joseph
pudieron89 - January 14, 2012
I just loved him so muchhhhh
joeybw - January 14, 2012
So I went through some more projections using both the spreadsheet and simply adding WAR.
After getting projections that were too optimistic, I have successfully lowered expectations and have come to a conclusion.
The Rays, Yanks, and Red Sox are all around equal, each team being around a 103-105 true win team. The Rays and Yanks are very very similar, with the Yanks having an edge in bullpen and the Rays having a slight edge in the rotation. The lineups are practically even. Boston has a ridiculous offense but a mediocre rotation.
mr. maniac - January 14, 2012
If there's a 2nd wild card, it sure wouldn't hurt
But now the Angels are in that conversation also. Our division wasn’t strong enough, the whole American League had to get strong…
joeybw - January 14, 2012
Paul Konerko
Does anyone else agree with me that KW would/should want quantity over quality, meaning 3-4 pretty good prospects versus 1-2 really good ones. Their farm system looks so bad right now (10 guys rated higher than c two of which higher than c+). If I was KW I would try to get as many c+ prospects as I could, and rays have the depth to do that.
BossmanJunior333 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
No, they need upside
Transplanted - January 14, 2012
Disagree
and c+ prospects dont have upside? If you had the worst farm system in baseball, would you rather have 1 really good prospect or 3-4 good prospects, who have the potential to develop into good players. If being a rays fan has taught us anything, depth is crucial to building a winner and they have zero. They only have 10 c+ or greater, we have 30.
BossmanJunior333 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
They really need both
But I’d take the upside first and build a core of players. Alexei is their best player and he’s 30! They have no one to build around right now.
Transplanted - January 14, 2012
Seems like they're trying to make Danks a guy to build around
Poor decision to extend him given the state of that team, imo.
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
They're going to be the Astros within 2 years
Question is, when will Kenny be fired?
Transplanted - January 14, 2012
It's really hard to believe he still has his job there.
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
I can see Reinsdorf canning him in 2013
Outside of De Aza, they have no one new coming in that has some talent.
2011, 4 position players above 2 fWAR, and Quentin is gone, so they only have 3 now.
Transplanted - January 14, 2012
No prospect is a sure thing
You cant bank on one prospect developing into a core major leaguer. All you can do is get as many good prospects as you can and hope that a few of them contribute to the major league team.
BossmanJunior333 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
I'll take the "sure thing" prospect over several good prospects who have potential
I.e. I’d trade all 3 of last year’s first rounders for a prospect of even Myers/Mesoraco’s caliber, forget the super prospects like Trout/Profar.
Quality>quantity when it comes to farms
benderbrodriguez - January 14, 2012
Agree to disagree then
I think what your saying is valid unless in this case the white sox have zero minor league depth. The sucess rate for prospects is so low I would rather make a bunch of little gambles than 1 big one. If that 1 player is a bust, your screwed. Chances are, some of my c+ prospects that have potential will become better prospects and make the case of having just one great prospect moot. Im just really suprised that the fan of team that prides itself on orgamizational depth would take this stance. I would rather have 10 c+ prospects than 2 b+ and 8 c prospects.
BossmanJunior333 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
My choices, assuming the Rays have 8-10 million to spend for the 1st base spot(and realistically available)...
By trade..
1. Carlos Lee
2. Justin Smoak
3. Jesus Guzman
4. Daric Barton
By signing..
1. Derek Lee
2. Conner Jackson(minor league deal)
Combination..
1. Derrek Lee and Jesus Guzman/Daric Barton
budman3 - January 14, 2012
who you think is available seems a little pessimistic
Mine…
Trade targets
1. Konerko
2. Duda
3. Smoak
4. Sands
5. Butler
6. Trumbo
7. C. Lee
8. Murphy
9. Blanks
Signing
1. Pena
2. D. Lee
3. Scotchman
I didnt include ike davis because I dont think hes available
BossmanJunior333 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
No Belt?
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
Dont think he would be available
If he was, he would be second. Konerko gives us the best chance to win now, thats why hes number one. Belt is my favorite long term option.
BossmanJunior333 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Also, Butler can't play 1b.
I mean, he can stand there. But he is a DH only for the Rays, I would think.
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
Um yeah
Thats why I almost didnt include him.
BossmanJunior333 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Butler isn't that bad
UZR/150 of -4.8 at 1B
That’s not good, but it’s better than either Fielder or Konerko. He’s a legit 1B option.
AndrewTorrez - January 14, 2012
fielders going to end up in washington at some point
Doubt it will happen but would love to pry Mike Morse away in a trade.
raysfaninminnesota - January 14, 2012
Guarentee they just move him to outfield
BossmanJunior333 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
agreed
That’s where he was playing when LaRoche was healthy. Only way Rays get Morse is if Upton’s part of that trade, imo.
raysfaninminnesota - January 14, 2012
There are only 2 players on that list that I think could be traded and can play 1st base
Lee and Smoak. The others, though are wishful thinking in that it is assumed they are available. I can make a case that all of them are being thought of by their teams as being part of their plans to start the season. Konerko, would be expensive and is the most popular player on the Sox. Duda, despite his terrible OF fielding may be the best all around young hitter on the Mets. Murphy would be a DH with the Rays as he plays all defensive positions below average. Plus, I think the Mets are rebuilding and I’m not sure they match-up with the Rays now. Sands, is the heir apparent to 1st base for the Dodgers, Butler is expensive and can’t play 1st, Trumbo has been slow to recover and is still being looked at as a 3rd baseman. Blanks, maybe, but again, he is barely a 1st baseman and I’m not sure he can ever remain healthy(along with his KO’s)
budman3 - January 14, 2012
Konerko and Duda
These are my top two targets for the Rays and I think they can be had.
According to rosenthal, ike davis is off limits but murphy and duda were not untouchable. What about guyer for duda? Mets get a true outfielder with similar value but dissimilar skill set, better suited for outfield in a big park. I assume rays would have to throw in another prospect.
As for the white sox, its clear they are trying to rebuild, however they have a lot of unmovable contracts (peavy, dunn, rios, etc). The only two guys they can really move are konerko and floyd. If they picked up the deferred money and konerko remained a 3-2.5 war player, they would have an excess value of about 10 mil, which would net them 3-4 decent prospects like ive suggested. There is also the no-trade issue, but if white sox are committed to rebiulding, paulie might not want to stick around.
BossmanJunior333 - January 14, 2012 via mobile
Guyer > Duda
Better scouting reports, similar minor-league numbers, and you’re talking about a passable CF versus a 1B. I’ll take Guyer.
AndrewTorrez - January 15, 2012
Just an idea off the cuff
Id rather trade pitching for duda regardless and keep guyer
BossmanJunior333 - January 15, 2012 via mobile
Anyone care to take a look at a discussion about McCutchen and Upton from an ESPN message board?
http://games.espn.go.com/frontpage/forums#!/topic/1326579577-510-814
I’m meeting a lot of resistance, and I’m not sure what the problem is.
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
Ha I thought I was one that can't resist these boards sometimes.
Sometimes the people are just to thick headed over there
MakeitRayn - January 14, 2012
I am an accomplished troll over at ESPN.
SandalsNoPants has been retired for quite a while over in those parts. Forced into retirement, more accurately.
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
Look at your facebook, you ugly bro
MakeitRayn - January 14, 2012
More from PSA:
SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012
I've said it before and I'll say it again
Yankees fans are morons.
AndrewTorrez - January 14, 2012
Even ignorance is better than whatever Boston fans are.
mr. maniac - January 14, 2012
well, they also have an insufferable sense of entitlement
AndrewTorrez - January 15, 2012
Please
Don’t judge us all by one man.
Brandon C. - January 15, 2012
This
PSA as a whole is a respectable community
benderbrodriguez - January 15, 2012
I post there all the time
Aside from a couple of confrontational bozos and mods not allowing me to use PSA quotes in my sig, I enjoy it over there. The stupid posts make me laugh.
SandalsNoPants - January 15, 2012
Thank you
Brandon C. - January 15, 2012
If you all did
We’d certainly be in trouble around these parts :)
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
it's not like they're OTM
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
Be nice to Joey!
mr. maniac - January 15, 2012
lol
benderbrodriguez - January 15, 2012
Hah!
Brandon C. - January 15, 2012
But Ivan Nova is great, just look at his record.
jtmorgan - January 14, 2012
This trade only makes sense for SEA if Montero can stay at C right?
Otherwise they seem to have given the Yanks too much here.
JoeMasGlasses - January 14, 2012
it's a fair trade
I’m not sure why Seattle agreed to throw in Campos, who has a ridiculously high ceiling, but they get six years of a potential middle-of-the-order impact bat. Even at 1B/DH, that’s fair value for five years of a young, very good starter.
AndrewTorrez - January 15, 2012
What about Noesi? His numbers aren't exactly terrible.
firemangreg - January 15, 2012
Yea, Dave Cameron has a piece on USSMariner that's rather convincing
Here
Ben Tumbling - January 15, 2012
I like Noesi now that he's pitching in Seattle.
Don’t love him, but he should be alright.
SandalsNoPants - January 15, 2012
"Alright" is an understatement.
firemangreg - January 16, 2012
Pena seems possible
Not Fielder
Brandon C. - January 15, 2012
Anything is possible at DRB
SandalsNoPants - January 15, 2012
I think he's talking about for the Yankees
benderbrodriguez - January 15, 2012
LOVE me the comments in this piece
http://www.tampabay.com/news/perspective/a-way-out-of-rays-dilemma-both-sides-of-bay-winbr-br-/1210505#comments
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
2 stadiums?
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
best solution ever
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
What happens with Port Charlotte?
gjsor - January 15, 2012
It stays
Agreement is too new and the facilities are too new for them to go back to an inferior Al Lang.
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
have you ever thought of trading joyce torres and davis for choo hafner and levon?
JOYCE TORRES DAVIS FOR CHOO HAFNER LEVON - January 15, 2012
Dont you mean hanfer?
BossmanJunior333 - January 15, 2012 via mobile
Once Cespedes signs with the Marlins
Gaby Sanchez will be available for peanuts.
bumbry - January 15, 2012
If the Rays think they are one more "impact hitter"..and one who has proven that he is...they need to put a package together for Carlos Lee
The key will be to get the 18.5 million dollar salary down to the 8-10 million range, IMO. That will require either a very good prospect like a Moore or Lee which the Rays won’t do. So maybe a package of Neimann(returns to his hometown) and one other player the Astros might covet, like Archer/Cobb/Torrez/Colome/Beckham/Guyer would work.
Again, while two players may seem like a lot for one year of Lee, the Rays will be dealing from surplus and it could net them the type of player for most feel is that missing bat for this line-up. And if the Rays for some reason don’t compete this season, he should be able to be traded at the deadline to re-coup some prospects back.
budman3 - January 15, 2012
On the other hand, a Lee-Lee deal has a nice ring to it
Moore for Lee? I don’t think the Rays should consider trading Moore even for the entire Houston team.
bumbry - January 15, 2012
Seeing as the Rays were at least kicking the tires on paying Beltran 8-10 million(per year for one or two), it may be what kind of package they could put together that the Astros like.
budman3 - January 15, 2012
Lee doesn't fit the profile
The ideal candidate is a young lefty with at least a couple of years of team control remaining, can play a decent defensive 1B and has recently displayed power against American League pitching.
bumbry - January 15, 2012
SO DUMB
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
I dont know how many different ways I can say no
Carlos Lee is an aging slugger whos skills are rapidly decreasing. His iso has been dropping every year and is no longer the impact hitter he used to be. Considering his bat is his only positive attribute, this is not a good trend. Do you really think one year a dh/1b who is a below average defender and runner who projects to hit around .270 with 20 hr is really worth 3 years of an above average starting pitcher AND a top prospect? Niemann will probably have a higher war than Lee next year alone, not to mention a B level prospect that is worth 6-8 million, per victor wang. Lee projects to be around a 2 win player next season, and if the astros picked up all but 8 million, that would only leave an excess of 2-3 million in value, roughly worth 2 c+ prospects, which is all I would give up. Think about the carlos quentin trade. He was owed around.7 mil and the white sox only recieved to average c prospects. The return would be similar.
BossmanJunior333 - January 15, 2012 via mobile
.339 wOBA and 115 wrC+
pretty average hitter at this point
BossmanJunior333 - January 15, 2012 via mobile
well said
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
Why not just make a push for Pena?
Pena has been a better hitter in each of the past 3 years, is 2 years younger and will cost 8-10 million less a year, plus not cost any prospects.
ReyL - January 15, 2012
Exactly
BossmanJunior333 - January 15, 2012 via mobile
I dont know why
Anyone would want Lee for 8 mil and give up prospects instead of just signing pena, a much better player, for the same money and give up nothing
Im still holding out for a young cost controlled 1b in a trade though
BossmanJunior333 - January 15, 2012 via mobile
this is an awful suggestion and a huge overpay for an aging, fat, barely above average hitter.
please stop unless you’re going to post something sensical about it.
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
You mean sensical like describing a player as aging, fat, and barely above average?
I have used saber numbers to state my case for Lee as an option, which you may go back and read my other posts on the matter. But to summarize, he is still a 3.2 WAR player who still has gap power(60 XBH’s which would serve him well at the Trop). His has a KO rate of about 9.0 over the last three seasons, which fits in what the Rays should be looking for. And his defense at first base, where he would play, has been above average since he began playing there(7.8 uzr/150). Yes, he will only steal 3-4 bases.
Now if you like Pena, who’s numbers have been regressing over the last three seasons, so be it. He is only a 2.6 WAR guy, his .354 w/oba is a result of walking so much more and his 119 wrC+ is almost equal to Lee. But if you prefer a guy who is going to hit .220 for you and KO 27% of the time, you can have him. He had 58 XBH’s last season.
And, if you would rather have Pena’s .133 BA, 59 wrC+. .260 OBP,.333 slg,.594 OPS, .200 ISO, or .260wOBA against lefties be my guest.
BTW, Lee’s numbers versus lefties..348 BA, .179wrC+, .413 OBP, .615 SLG, .1.028 OPS, .267 ISO and .432wOBA
Now, it will probably cost the same amount in salary for both and maybe I have over valued players who may be needed to get Lee but if it takes anything to acquire him, that’s the cost of business if AF thinks he is worth it.
budman3 - January 15, 2012
a knockout rate of 9? i think your talking about some boxer.
i have less of a problem with your choice and more of one with your suggested trade, which is insanely idiotic and not even in the realm of possibilities of something friedman would do. i mean jesus christ, 6 years of a cost-controlled A-/B+ prospect who is at the higher levels and plays a premium defensive position for one year of an aging slugger, you don’t need WAR values to tell you how dumb that is.
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
If you are talking about Beckham, I would argue that at some point AF will have to trade away some guys who are destined to never play for the Rays
Beckham is a prospect but quite possibly, at a surplus position for the Rays, if you buy into Lee as the future SS in 2 years time. The same goes with holding on to every arm prospect this organization has. While I understand that AF has never dealt major upside prospects for proven ML hitters, this may be the best opportunity he ever has to do so. Will he over pay if he attempted it? Probably not… he is a good GM. Would there really be shock if he does, in some fans minds, if he acquires a player that he values to improve this team? Even if he thinks it will be the type of player that significantly improves the Rays chances for 2012?
budman3 - January 15, 2012
Just because you have a surplus, doesnt mean those players lose any individual value. Having extra of something doesnt decrease what they are worth. And by mo means do we “have” to trade any prospect. I would value beckham and our arms the same regardless of how many we had.
Carlos Lee is slightly above average, he is not the type of impact player that would significantly affect our team. Easily replaceable, easily forgettable.
BossmanJunior333 - January 15, 2012 via mobile
I'm glad you think Lee is slightly above average
I will go back to the statement that AF said he is looking for players to compliment what the Rays already have. I look at Lee as an impact bat in this Rays line-up. Do I expect him to impact the production by hitting .330 with 35 HR’s again? No, but he does fit the need for a professional middle of the order hitter who can hit for average, drive runs in, still has decent power, and will not strike out, .
I certainly prefer a line-up of Longoria, Lee, and Scott in the middle rather than Longoria, Pena, Scott. Especially when a left hander is on the mound.
budman3 - January 15, 2012
using bold in your paragraphs does not make their theses any less stupid.
i don’t even have a problem with acquiring lee, as i’ve said, it’s the insanely STUPID and WRONG terms of trade that you’ve listed.
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
Let me clarify, again
Im not opposed to getting lee….for the right cost. And that is not what you suggested. Maybe we can agree that if that cost was reasonable, that friedman was ok with, both of us I think he could be a solid bat in the line up.
BossmanJunior333 - January 16, 2012 via mobile
Agreed.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
Also dont forget there is a consequence for a low k%
He has hit into double plays over 20 times many times in his career. Double plays are much worse than strikeouts.
BossmanJunior333 - January 16, 2012 via mobile
i'm talking about lee because you're talking about lee. are you seriously this dense? no one brought up beckham until now, he's extraneous to the conversation
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
I clearly stated that Moore and Lee would probably be needed to absorb half of Lee's salary in a trade but that the Rays would not trade them.
Read more post…err…..read more clearly.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
why even mention it at all? and that's just completely untrue, the Astros bear the burden of a terrible backloaded contract that they need to dump, it's them who have the incentive to absorb more contract.
don’t read more, just post less. PLEASE.
pudieron89 - January 16, 2012
Not a chance.....dream on.
budman3 - January 16, 2012
You've got to be a troll.
firemangreg - January 16, 2012
lol
SandalsNoPants - January 16, 2012
this.
pudieron89 - January 16, 2012
But you're insanely wrong.
They could give Lee away and get much less in return.
SandalsNoPants - January 16, 2012
Make sure you use a three year window to make your point
ie
.334 wOBA, 107 wrC+, 1.1 WAR
.351 wOBA, 118 wrC+, 2.2 WAR
Player 1 is Lee, player 2 is Pena. Those are the three year averages.
I have less of an issue with getting Lee as I do with your assessment of a fair trade. I literally wouldnt trade one player you mentioned for Lee.
If both guys were free agents, and demanded the same salary, this would be much more of an interesting debate. Each player has their own merits. But we werent talking about which player you would rather have. The issue here is that if both players made the same money in 2012, do you think Lee is so much of an improvement over Pena, that you would be willing to give up prospects. Which is better, Lee or Pena and prospects. Im sorry, Lee isnt so much better than Pena that I would be willing to give up talent in addition to paying them the same amount.
BossmanJunior333 - January 15, 2012 via mobile
Practice what you preach.
You brought up Lee’s 2011 numbers.
Listen, both Lee and Pena are showing signs of regression and they both may be equal in some areas and have differences in others in what they would bring to the Rays. As I stated above, maybe there is an overpay with some of the players I mentioned in your mind but it is all relative in terms of what AF thinks is the value it would take to get a certain player. Even if you compare that player over another that may be available.
budman3 - January 15, 2012
Ha touche
Like I said, in my eyes pena and lee are pretty similar in value. If both were free agents, I would see merit in signing either one. Similarly, I could see them earning similar money. However (this is the sticking point), Lee isnt so much better than Pena that I would rather trade prospects to get Lee versus signing Pena for the same money.
I have a pretty decent idea how friedman thinks. Even with an average war of 1.1 the past 3 years, lets call lee a 2 war player. If the astros cover all but 8 million, that leaves roughly 2 mil in excess. C prospects can range anywhere from 1.5 to .7mil, per victor wang. So presumably that means he is worth 2 c prospects. Given the glut dh/1b types, they would be glad to get that.
BossmanJunior333 - January 16, 2012 via mobile
this this this.
pudieron89 - January 15, 2012
This is what I'm talking about
In a vacuum, Lee and Pena have similar value and either one is an improvement for the Rays. The difference and reason I wouldn’t think about Lee, is he is under contract for 18.5 million this year and Pena is a free agent. Most feel Pena will cost somewhere around 8 million to sign and not cost any prospects. Lee will cost some combination of prospects and/or 18.5 million. That is a huge difference when you’re talking about aging 1B.
ReyL - January 16, 2012
Your equating XBH in Minute Maid to XBH in Tropicana
big mistake
Jason Collette - January 16, 2012
Lee's splits were virtually equal (across the board) at home and away last year
Maybe he should have hit better (and had more HR’s) at Minute Maid but he has always been a consistently good gap power player through out his career both home and away(that follows through while playing at MM) The Trop may cut down his HR totals but not necessarily his gap power. Good hitters will hit anywhere and Lee has shown that in his career.
As an aside, the LF foul poles at both the Trop and MM are 315 down the line(MM does have a 19 foot wall),. But while the LF power gap at the Trop goes to 370, the gap in MM is 404 feet with a higher wall). The difference in HR(.25 per game) and doubles(.3) factor between the Trop and MM is marked but consistent. Lee’s HR power has always been as a pull hitter(about 80%), so he may have actually been hurt at MM. But his doubles power has almost been equal when split between pull and center and right(184 2bs to left, 85 to C and 79 to RF).
budman3 - January 16, 2012
Jon Heyman
@JonHeymanCBS
Ben Tumbling - January 15, 2012
Heyman is a tool
Now the Yankees just sit back and wait for Pena to lower his contract demands.
bumbry - January 15, 2012
He's Boras's mouthpiece
If he’s saying it, it’s happening
Jason Collette - January 15, 2012
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