DRaysBay

Lee vs Pena

Andrew said yesterday he liked Scott because it meant “not having to platoon at DH” so you could apply the same theory to 1B as well given that the team has chosen to operate with a 4 man bench more often than not. If the SP trade market doesn’t open up, I don’t see how the team can avoid using a 12 man staff again this season.

The team doesn’t buy into SSS, but Lee’s #’s in the AL over 364 PA were .246/.302/.404 in a park that should have helped RH power.

As Mr. Neg pointed out, Lee’s #’s vs LHP are in a 5 year decline now dating back to 2007 but this past season was the first time he was below league average in that split. The SLG% vs LHP by year:

597
535
456
421
366

that’s quite the drop off

I like D.Lee

I wouldn’t mind having him, just thought the trend was interesting.

As for 1b. Andrew Friedman said he wanted to improve the offense at DH/1b without disturbing the integrity of the defense.

I would assume he got the uptick in offense from Scott and the 1b will be someone who can handle the position.

So, I don’t think its splits that AF will look at 1b, it will be ability to hit + play the position defensively.

One other observation about D.Lee from 2011 vs LHP (Only observations!) is that he had a .346 BABIP.

Actually, that quote isn't fully accurate

He said there is a tipping point where the offensive production can outweigh the defensive value on yesterday’s call

there are times when enough offense trips the defensive value line when it makes sense for the team

I don’t think that speaks to the FA market as much as a trade possibility

that's not the quote

it was from the Podcast he did with XM.

That's the quote he gave on the conference call yesterday

even you posted the quote:

*First base & DH: Kotch is still in the conversation – looking at who can generate the most offense while maintaining defensive expectations.

That was an earlier quote though, no?

yes

doesn’t invalidate though.

I don’t think his opinion switches with the wind between December 22 (XM interview) and January 12th (yesterday’s interview).

so, in typical Friedman speak,

The possibilities remain anything from a well-rounded 1B to an offensive first one

We’re drilling down!

well

I’ll continue to suggest that the Rays pattern is 1b must be able to play defense the tipping point won’t be in 2012.

Rays will have a competent first baseman on the roster. If he can hit, much the better for the Rays.

I like players who can hit!

Passionate Apathy - January 13, 2012 reply

Players who can hit are nice, especially at 1b

JoeMasGlasses - January 13, 2012 reply

I agree MR.MR Negative

I think a nod was given to Mr. Scott because he can fill in defensively at 1b. The rays are not deep at 1b and Luke is better that Damon in that regard.
You never know when a jerk like Yuke will run out of the baseline and try to injure our 1b.

Landlord - January 13, 2012 reply

Take... these broken wings!

god i missed this.

What the hell?

That’s just pathetic baseless speculation that we don’t need here.

You don't remember Yuek hitting Kotch last year?

I don’t think he went out of the baseline, but I do remember it happening. I’m sure Landlord took it as a person offense.

But has Scott done that?

That’s how I took it

I think the only Scott comment is that he's better than DFAmon at 1B

He was commenting on depth, b/c of guys like Yuke

Huh? I think you're misreading.

I see it as Landlord suggestion 1B depth is good because you never know what opposing players will do.

Ahh, I see...you clarified down below.

Damn sinus meds have killed my sleep

I’m a walking zombie these days

Excuses excuses.

are you seriously contending that Poukilis is not a dirty player and that he DIDN'T slide right at Kotch's legs last season?

it’s only baseless if you didn’t watch that game

My fault...I misread Yuke as a typo for Luke

carry on :)

My apologies Mr. Landlord

To make it right, Landlord should be a mod.

Sure, just after I make dobber one again

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/romano_tampa_bay_rays_plunking_of_kevin_youkilis_was_necessary/

While it may technically qualify as speculation

it is neither pathetic or baseless.

gotta love

the time span between “rumor of Scott and Rays” and the time it was announced that it was a done deal…a matter of hours?!!!

I think it was within the hour

Sounded like Connolly alerted Topkin that something might be up & Connolly got confirmation from Scott shortly thereafter.

That, or Topkin got word while on site and he sent a note to Connolly to check on it.

Ithink AF

Has positioned himself nicely in negotiations with the available 1b;s on the market. It will be decided by which player wants to get real with their compensation and come to terms with $tu’s pocket book. The reward for the player is a guaranteed starting job. Not much competition at 1b in St. Pete, as the current roster stands.

Landlord - January 13, 2012 reply

WELCOME BACK!!!!

Another fun stat

to look at with guys like Pena is the “late and close” numbers.

I’d like to think that this stat might encompass more of the relief pitcher matchups.

Pena career Late & Close is a .250/.374/.510 (.885 OPS).

Last three years OPS in that category has been 2009: .979, 2010: .680 & 2011: .776

Just something else I found interesting.

SSS

Year to year splits against LHP doesn't mean a whole lot.

yep

just observations.

Derrick Lee has other strange trends too...

2010 with non-contender Cubs: .751 OPS
2010 with contender Braves: .849 OPS
2011 with non-contender O’s: .706 OPS
2011 with contender (at the time) Pirates: .982 OPS

Does playing for a contender really matter or SSS?

JWoz - January 13, 2012 reply

Operation Shutdown!

I like that pic of Maddon

I’d think he would get a significant raise. 3mil a year x 4 maybe? I’m not sure what average manager salaries are. But he’s should be paid like other top well respected managers.

pcbredemeier - January 13, 2012 reply

Joe does look a little Fat Albert-ish

I hate to dip into the rosterbation, but a thought I had this morning

KC trading Billy Butler for usable parts (pitching) and re-purpose the dollars dedicated to him to those acquired salaries plus opening a DH spot for Damon to get to his 3000 hits. Lets him provide some of that leadership to a KC squad that could compete over the next 2 years with a division that is anything but a sure thing.

His professionalism and grace would be a welcome addition to that rag-tag KC clubhouse.

I find your ideas interesting and would like to subscribe to your newsletter

If you do, I could make $3M a year

Imagine all of the people I could help with that money

I watched Cespedes last night.

There was a live stream of his debut from the Dominican Winter League available. He is clearly rusty from not having seen live pitching. He struck out three times, twice pretty badly on breaking balls on 0-2 counts.

John Gregg - January 13, 2012 reply

Thanks for the Marlins news! This is where I always look first for my Marlins news.

(I hate the f***ing Marlins)

It's a brilliant quote.

I’m gonna toss Marlins stuff in the Rays Tank every now and then, and that was too good to pass up.

Please don't. I hate the Marlins

Too bad, they're another local-ish team doing interesting things.

But anyway, I only really link to stuff on them whenever it has some sort of quasi-impact on the Rays. Or if it’s just really outrageous and I’d comment on it anyway, regardless of it was the Marlins or not.

Orlando is local-ish. Miami is another market entirely.

I don’t care about the Marlins news, just saying that it’s a major stretch to call them local-ish. 260 miles apart.

That would be like the A’s reporting on Dodgers news because they’re local-ish. Different division, different league, different philosophies, no overlap.

Oh, I know.

I’m mostly referring to stadium stuff, since Miami’s brought up frequently whenever the Rays stadium comes up. And although Miami has some unique demographics, both TB and Miami have some striking similarities in terms of sprawl, stadium location, etc.

I guess what I’m saying is, I think we shouldn’t underestimate how much the Marlins 2012 season could impact the Rays down the road. How many fans will show up? What will it do for revenues, expectations, yadda yadda? I’m finding the whole thing interesting to follow for that reason alone.

Slow knows the Florida landscape/culture the way GWB knew Iraq

FreeZorilla - January 13, 2012 reply

Lol

Ba-zing.

’preciate it.

Please stick it up the suggestion box. Thanks.

Whatever.

We know you are secretly pulling for the investor group to trade ownership with the Marlins so you can write for the fish wrap.

Clay Davenport on Cespides

is here; the nut graf is that he projects Cespides as sort of Mike Cameron-light; low average, decent OBP, good power.

alright, i've seen almost as many derivative spellings of this name as Qaddafi/Kadaffy/etc.

yeah, I don't know when he became "Yoennis" instead of "Yoenis"

although maybe that’s to distinguish himself from all the other Yoennises (Yoenni?) out there

I expect to see all of these soon

Younes
Yoeniz
Yoneis
Yunel

something important to remember is that Hispanics and especially Cubans pronounce the ‘Y’ to start off words as a ‘J’. I love watching games with my Cuban friend who’s a Yanks fan because he continuously says “Jankees” and it never gets old to me.

When is that Taylor Gierurri boy ready for the bigs?

lol

Not always

There are quite a few Cuban boxers with Y-names, and the only one who pronounces it with a J is Yoan Pablo Hernandez. Yuriorkis Gamboa, Yordanis Despagne, Yudel Jhonson, Yunier Dorticos, etc. all pronounce their names with a Y.

Brickhaus - January 13, 2012 reply

well they're boxers, so their brains are so rattled up that they don't know half of what they say anyways.

Yoanus

SandalsNoPants - January 13, 2012 reply

I sense labor trouble. From Tommy's piece:

Depending on the health of Scott’s shoulder – which will prohibit him from paying the outfield for the first few month of the season

I don’t think BJ will be motivated if he’s not payed.

Whelk - January 13, 2012 reply

or paid even

Crap.

Fail.

Whelk - January 13, 2012 reply

What's Gabe Kapler doing these days?

He actually called into the MLB Network radio show yesterday morning to share a Todd Hollandsworth story

Dude need a broadcasting job

Passionate Apathy - January 13, 2012 reply

or needs even

ain't nottin but a ting mon

weren't we all gung-ho about him getting a minors managerial spot?

I still wouldn’t mind that happening.

agreed

Broadcasting or management

Either way — really enjoy hearing him talk

OT: I can't help but feel that the Rays get underrated because Zobrist is underrated.

And I almost feel the team has part of the blame. It seems like they love promoting Longoria, but don’t feel like putting Zobrist in the light. It could just be me though. Zobrist is a star player, and the media (620, TBT, sunsports, national media, etc..) never mentions it.

I was thinking about that when I read this thread: http://forums.theraysrepublic.com/index.php?showtopic=6970. Granted, I doubt anyone would want to form their opinion regarding value based on those opinions, but I feel that they reflect the fan’s feelings.

Personally, I would only take Pedroia over Zobrist.

mr. maniac - January 13, 2012 reply

in terms of 2B, you mean.

When teams have obvious stars like Longoria and Price, others always

fall to the background. A good example are the NY Yankees. I think players like Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada never got their due because of the bigger names

sternfan1 - January 13, 2012 reply

without looking for better examples I can't think of two worse examples

Ryan Gilliss - January 13, 2012 reply

lol

Defense isn't properly valued

People still think fielding percentage and error totals are how rank defenders.

If he would play either 2B or RF fulltime, he’d be more appreciated. People love to laud Cano for his 2B defense while overlooking that Zobrist could be the best guy behind Pedroia

Zobrist needs to put up back to back above average years

and not fall back like ‘10, then you’ll see the worm turn

sternfan1 - January 13, 2012 reply

stay healthy, check

raysfaninminnesota - January 13, 2012 reply

Zobrist was still above average in 2010.

mr. maniac - January 13, 2012 reply

perception is reality

Had such a HUGE season in 2009 that it made 2010 look like a downer.

this

this too

Cano is not a good second baseman

You shut your mouth!

Signed,

National media

YA THAT GUY SUCKS!

Sveet - January 13, 2012 reply

DRS likes him a lot more than UZR

I’d say he is league average. When combined with his bat though, I’ll put him at 2B any day of the week.

djp68 - January 13, 2012 reply

The fielding percentage stuff from yesterday blew my mind.

I hadn’t heard that referenced in a very long time.

it also helps that 3b is more prone to highlight plays than 2b.

his versatility also gets him underrated as a couple people have mentioned. there’s a perception that if you dont play somewhere full-time it must be because you’re flawed.

It's Zobrist's lower batting average that leads to this. The same thing happens to Ian Kinsler

Perhaps Zobrist doesn't actually want to be in the spotlight

Brickhaus - January 13, 2012 reply

Maybe we should just give Maddon a Scosia extension

10 year deal, he’s not leaving anyway.

No.

mr. maniac - January 13, 2012 reply

Keith Olberman WS pick for 2012.....Tampa Bay Rays

JoeMasGlasses - January 13, 2012 reply

That idiotic librul doesn''t know what he....

Oh wait, he’s smart!

Chuck Knoblauch was prescient

throwing a baseball at his mom and all

Brickhaus - January 13, 2012 reply

When do we normally sign Dan Johnson to his minor league deal?

He’s looking for work and we can’t lose him. He left us for a year to play in Japan and it was the one year we didn’t make it to the postseason.

Your'e right!

1998 – 2007 he warn’t on the team either!

See?

Ya see?

We need him or no playoffs

Very true, the Rays need the +1 WPA he always provides in 1 at-bat in September.

ChiBurbRaysFan - January 14, 2012 reply

Marc Topkin twitter

To make room on 40-man roster for Luke Scott, #Rays designate for assignment C Nevin Ashley

Ben Tumbling - January 13, 2012 reply

noooooooooooooooo

what do I win?

Don't tell R.J.

Or the NWS will have to issue a smug warning.

(Tried to find the poll he made about whether Ashely would ever make the bigs after a long argument with FreeZo, but I guess the archives don’t go back far enough or I suck at searching.)

ChiBurbRaysFan - January 14, 2012 reply

HIs tweet yesterday

@FreeZorilla In retrospect, I was too arrogant about Ashley back when. Hopefully he latches on to another team and shows off the gun.

The dream isn’t over. Last year fans shouted FRIEDMAN"D from the rooftops when Ruggs passed through waivers. Ruggz made it back to the bigs.

FreeZorilla - January 14, 2012 reply

Astros offering Carlos Lee and half of his salary for scraps

Anyone up for that? Personally, I want Pena more but if the Indians get Pena, would you prefer Carlos Lee to Kotchman or not?

Yes to Lee over Kotch.

SandalsNoPants - January 13, 2012 reply

yes

And I would take Lee over Pena for the same 9 million they would probably cost for one year.

Even more if it only takes a B prospect which I’m not so sure the Astros would accept. Usually for a team paying half the salary, a decent prospect is usually involved. Would they take Neimann/Davis off the Rays hands?

Pineda for Montero rumors floating around

Would be big impact for AL East

JWoz - January 13, 2012 reply

Hey maybe Carp can play 1B since Montero will DH and we can get Smoak!

But if Montero catches, we can get Jaso back!

Mariners may not have enough money for Fielder. Wonder if this removes the need for him as well.

Smoak/Carp could definitely be in play now…perhaps for a starter to replace Pineda?

I know Smoak has not produced as expected but he is only 25 years old...

…and was definitely rushed to the majors(only 773 MiL ab’s). Put that together with a tough place to hit and a worse team with little to play for and you have a guy who needs a change of scenery. Something always intriguing about a young switch hitting 1st baseman(decent fielder), who, while he may not have shown a lot of power yet, has a good eye and could be a solid, if not spectacular hitter.

Buy low, good risk for the Rays at least as an option for 1st base?

I would like to give Smoak a shot.

SandalsNoPants - January 14, 2012 reply

Carp is a terrible fielding 1st baseman

Damn...

I don’t want to see the Rays face Pineda that much.

Snarfalicious - January 13, 2012 reply

Yanks threw in Noesi also

PIneda is great but i like this for the Mariners. Jesus will be a beast.

but the Mariners threw in Campos

ridiculous ceiling, 18 in low-A.

Seattle is a tough place to hit.

So I suppose the market has been set for what a "young impact bat is worth, huh?

This and the Alonso for Latos trade.

Yanks just signed Kuroda too.....

Went from a so-so pitching staff to very good in just a few hours…..wonder if this will put pressure on Boston now as they are clearly #3 in the AL East at this point

JWoz - January 13, 2012 reply

Wonder if this puts pressure on the Rays as the Yanks have appeared to close the pitching gap edge they Rays held on them.